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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    So overall, O'Neill was 2.5 fWAR and Yoshida was 0.8. Yoshida is only worthy of starting at DH because there aren't better options. He's a barely above replacement level guy. And if he's in the OF it's an even worse scenario.
  2. Bellhorn04
    As it stands they look like an 84-85 win team. Might be enough to get into the playoffs, because the AL has really become the weak sister of the two leagues. Seems like that's what ownership is shooting for.
  3. Bellhorn04
    fWAR takes it all into account. I'm trying to stick with fWAR here as a reasonable measurement. O'Neill was comfortably 3rd in offensive fWAR.
  4. Bellhorn04
    I would hope you're kidding. O'Neill was 3rd in runs scored.
  5. Bellhorn04
    The Sox have been undisputed kings of baseball at making offers that fall short the last several years. Teams are very different in how they approach these things. The Sox operate nothing like the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees these days.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Sorry moon, it might be context on this message board, but it's not serious baseball analysis. Serious analysis shows that RBIs are not a skill. What's more pertinent is that O'Neill was 3rd on the team in offensive fWAR.
  7. Bellhorn04
    More important than you're giving it credit for, maybe? Big pluses for Duran and Hamilton, big minus for Yoshida. The deltas are large. Grounding into DP's, not able to take the extra base - this is what Yoshida brings.
  8. Bellhorn04
    That's not context, that's just a bunch of message board guys squawking about questionable points.
  9. Bellhorn04
    He's the worst though. Yoshida's only real offensive strength is getting on base, but once he gets there he's a liability. His OPS+ is respectable but every other aspect of his game detracts from it. That's why FanGraphs pins him at about a 1 WAR player.
  10. Bellhorn04
    I think some prayers are needed for Devers's shoulders as well. But as to your main point, if Breslow does nothing further, and neither Anthony or Campbell start the year with the team, this will be a worse team position player wise than the one that ended the year so feebly last year, and probably deserving of the projection of being the second worst group in the American League, ahead of only the White Sox. Which once again screams malpractice. Having said all this I'm thinking that maybe for PR purposes alone one of the kids might be in the opening day lineup.
  11. Bellhorn04
    If the Red Sox cared about his W-L record I don't think they would have traded 2 of their very best prospects and more for him. They're already invested in him. That's what moon's been saying and I agree. You have to follow through on that kind of investment. You can't mess around and see him walk after 2 years.
  12. Bellhorn04
    To me this is very low on the list of concerns one way or the other. If reports are accurate they've been trying to unload Yoshida. It's unfortunate but there was never a good fit for him. Obviously if you can't trade him you play him some and hope he hits.
  13. Bellhorn04
    You omitted the terrible baserunning.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Frankly Den you're in a pretty small minority now that puts that much emphasis on wins. It sounds like you'd need to see another full season out of him before making an offer. It's a cat and mouse game, because if Crochet has a big 2025 he might just say no to any extension offers and "bet on himself", as they say. In that case the Sox would be in a terrible position all of a sudden.
  15. Bellhorn04
    Nope, he'll be 30 after the 2029 season. (DOB June 21/99) My offer is 4 added years, with an opt out after 3.
  16. Bellhorn04
    6 years, 2025-2030 $170 million 21/23/27/30/33/36 Opt out after 2029 only. Opportunity to be a free agent at 30.
  17. Bellhorn04
    I think there can be some correlation, depending on how close to free agency etc. After all, an extension has to make it worth the player's while to forego free agency. I brought up Yamamoto because notin was suggesting that the fact Crochet isn't a "known quantity" yet should lower his value. And I'm not saying Crochet should be looking for $325 million. My number is $170 million, and notin thinks that's insane.
  18. Bellhorn04
    It is pretty comparable to a free agency situation, for the team. Impending free agency is why lucrative extensions get signed and why players like Mookie Betts and Juan Soto get traded a year or two before free agency. It's why Crochet got traded to us. Anyway, this is a situation where both sides have a lot of motivation to get a deal done and hopefully it happens.
  19. Bellhorn04
    But there's no point offering a deal that's a non-starter for the other side. The Sox have done a bit too much of that the last few years. Crochet isn't exactly just another "arb-eligible pitcher". By some metrics he had the best stuff in the game last year. He's only 25. And the Sox gave up a pile of talent to get him. Yamamoto got 325 million plus posting fee without pitching in an MLB game. I think a 4 year/85 offer is clearly a non-starter.
  20. Bellhorn04
    So here's my simple Sweet Spot Proposal: 6 years, 2025-2030 $170 million 21/23/27/30/33/36 Opt out after 2029 only.
  21. Bellhorn04
    a) I honestly don't know much about Vlad's attitude issues. b) I don't expect to ever see him in a Red Sox uniform. I was just mainly highlighting the durability issue with Casas.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Casas can probably improve his defense. It's his durability he has little control over. And that's the scary factor with him right now. I'm not saying Vlad Jr. is a real possibility, but one thing Vlad Jr. doesn't have is durability issues. He's missed a handful of games over the last 5 years.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Sorry moon but when I read your posts on this the numbers seem to be bouncing all over the place. Why not present us with a single offer that you think would hit the sweet spot for both sides? No variables, just one offer, including the total cash, years it covers and opt outs.
  24. Bellhorn04
    I'll still take: a) no deal over b) a long term deal with an opt out after 2027. With b you're opening yourself up to 2 different risks: 1) the albatross risk, and 2) the risk the player does well in 2025-2027 but opts out because his price has gone way up. Compared to that, a is not such a bad deal. You're getting Crochet for 2 years for 15 million, and you can wait and see how he does. His price may go way up but it also may go down. And you've still got all the money you didn't sink into that long term contract. It would suck giving up so much talent if we only have Crochet for 2 years, but there really are worse things.
  25. Bellhorn04
    If you give him a hefty 4 year contract with no opt-out, he's a rich man and a free agent at 29. That would be a great compromise for each side IMHO. Not that I expect this is what happens. It's just something to jabber about.
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