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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Still disagree. Comps don't have to line up perfectly to be useful. This house is identical to that house except for location or damage etc., that house sold for X, so this house should be worth (plug in discount or premium factor) - this is how market values are often estimated. I think you have to use the info you have. Yamamoto signed only a year ago so it certainly qualifies as recent data.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Love to have him, but probably not at his price tag. He'll probably be a Met next year.
  3. Bellhorn04
    We heard it over and over again - the reason Yamamoto was so special and would get paid so much was his age. Crochet would be a couple years older than Moto, but still much younger than the typical free agent.
  4. Bellhorn04
    That's why I'm saying it's a rabbit hole. There's no way to do a comparison that everyone would agree on.
  5. Bellhorn04
    One thing that the Yamamoto reminded us of is that projected paydays can be off by plenty. Yamamoto was 'only' predicted to get about $225 million. The actual number was $100 million higher and could have exceeded that if Cohen was allowed to up his offer.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, I think you know what we're getting at. MLB innings should OBVIOUSLY count for more than innings in Japan. As I said at the start, this is a rabbit hole. But claiming Crochet is vastly less proven than Yamamoto is kind of silly IMHO.
  7. Bellhorn04
    The White Sox clearly had him on a pre-set innings limit, and for good reason given his history. It's not like it was a radical position to take IMHO. In 2012 Strasburg was allowed to pitch up to X number of innings (160 it looks like) and then shut down completely for the season. That was a bit controversial too IIRC.
  8. Bellhorn04
    I must say this was one of the more amusing headlines of the offseason. The "preparing" part especially.
  9. Bellhorn04
    For those keeping track, Gio's 38.5 million is still the standard bearer for the Sox biggest guarantee to a free agent starting pitcher since the year 1 (or 0 if you want to rabbit hole it) AD (After Dombrowski). It has survived several more months!
  10. Bellhorn04
    Unfortunately the pitching physically hurt scenario got all muddled up with the pitching emotionally hurt scenario!
  11. Bellhorn04
    And that created some controversy. But if you step back and take an objective look at it, I think Crochet was absolutely right to be looking out for himself there. After all, who else would?
  12. Bellhorn04
    I don't know if anyone else has mentioned this, but I'm sure I read that Crochet said he was okay with extension negotiations extending into the regular season.
  13. Bellhorn04
    I could be wrong but you seem to be arguing that potential free agent paydays have ZERO correlation to the amounts of extension offers.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Nothing gets the blood going like Sam Kennedy telling us what they're actively exploring...
  15. Bellhorn04
    Exactly. Yamamoto's deal was HIGHLY speculative. And of course not only did he get 325 million, the Dodgers had to pay a 51 million posting fee. Total cost = 376 million for a pitcher with ZERO MLB INNINGS. But oh yeah, that's totally rational stuff compared to our suggested deals for Crochet. 😁
  16. Bellhorn04
    OK, well the first point is kind of a rabbit's hole. But what makes the bidding war for Yamamoto different from any other free agency? The bidding war for Soto looked much the same. And if Crochet pitches up to expectations the next 2 years and the Sox fail to extend him, there'll be a bidding war for him too. Crochet has a potential payday of maybe $250 million. You might be able to get him to forego the opportunity for that kind of payday by offering him your $80-90 million now, and you might not. Look at all the offers Betts turned down-3 as we now know. It takes guts to turn down a guaranteed $200 million (cue the Mama jokes). But some of these guys have done it.
  17. Bellhorn04
    In view of Wander Franco, maybe we should be using verbiage other than "locked up"...
  18. Bellhorn04
    Yamamoto?
  19. Bellhorn04
    Here's the story on the Scherzer extension offer from the Tigers, which got kind of ugly PR-wise. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/flashback-the-spring-2014-contract-spat-between-max-scherzer-the-tigers.html#:~:text=“Max Scherzer made a substantial,offer was rejected by Detroit. What I didn't know was that Scherzer took out an insurance policy on himself that would have paid him $40 million if he got injured in 2014. Now that's how you hedge betting on yourself! The premiums must have been hefty.
  20. Bellhorn04
    I think a deal with St. Louis will happen.
  21. Bellhorn04
    They can put in some bells and whistles too. A lower salary but with incentive money per appearance would guard some against injury.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval didn't get hurt, they just turned to suck. That happens to position players too.
  23. Bellhorn04
    We've seen what's happened with Trout. His career has been totally derailed.
  24. Bellhorn04
    I think it's absolutely relevant. Scherzer turned down 144 million because he thought he could get more than that when he hit free agency. If he thought he'd get less than that he wouldn't have turned it down. The player is deciding between the extension offer and the projected free agent payday and weighing the risk factor into the equation. That projected payday is a fundamental component of the equation.
  25. Bellhorn04
    I was talking about the risk from Crochet's end.
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