Imperial59

No, the difference between FIP and ERA is NOT related to BABIP. FIP only measures strikeouts, walks and home runs. So in effect, FIP measures the opposite of BABIP which measures all hits BUT home runs. There may be a correlation between the BABIP and FIP of some players, but the two stats are completely unrelated. There's a larger correlation between strikeout rates and FIP because FIP actually measures strikeouts. Any correlation between FIP and BABIP is merely coincidental and if you actually looked at the formula rather than trying to act like I didn't know what I was talking about, you'd know that. As I already pointed out, Lackey has the better career ERA by a significant margin and a slightly higher career BABIP than Vazquez, yet Vazquez has the better career FIP. Explain that one if FIP is based on BABIP. Lincecum, Gallardo, Vazquez and Kershaw all had a BABIP below .300, yet they saw major benefits to their FIP because the stat overvalues strikeouts and they had some of the highest strikeout rates in baseball.

To me, it's hilarious when people accuse the Sox of badmouthing Manny, Pedro, Lowe or Damon to get them out of town. NONE OF THOSE PLAYERS WERE WORTH WHAT THEY WERE SIGNED FOR. Perhaps the Sox just made accurate financial assessments on those players.

Can you provide any tangible evidence that the Sox smear players who don't leave on good terms? Manny was shoving over the traveling secretary and slapping his teammate in the face on live television. Hard to blame that one on the Red Sox.

I asked how you could have thought Gaudin would have earned more than $5 million and you gave me an article from RAB that compares him to similar pitchers who averaged $3.01 million in the same year of arbitration. Looks like you just proved me right. Even your own sources disagree with you.

Coming from the guy who seriously tried to claim that Gaudin could earn more than $5 million if he went to arbitration.

Not to beat a dead horse, but just to prove how overeliant on strikeouts FIP is, here are the pitchers with the top 10 strikeout ratings last year. I've listed their ERA and their FIP. Lincecum - 2.48 ERA, 2.34 FIP Verlander - 3.45 ERA, 2.80 FIP Lester - 3.41 ERA, 3.15, FIP Gallardo - 3.73 ERA, 3.97FIP Vazquez - 2.87 ERA, 2.77 FIP Kershaw - 3.08 ERA, 2.79 FIP Greinke - 2.33 ERA, 2.16 FIP Nolasco - 5.06 ERA, 3.35 FIP De La Rosa - 4.38 ERA, 3.91 FIP Notice a trend here? And then poor Jack Lannan who had the worst strikeout rate last year was given a 4.70 FIP when he had a 3.88 ERA. FIP is essientially a glorified K/BB which also factors in home runs.

It wouldn't be nearly as funny if he was. The fact that he was quite serious about it is the best part.

The best part of Jacko's post is the part where he claims that "by all accounts" he did well as a starter last year when his ERA as a starter was actually more than a run worse than his ERA as a reliever. I guess sometimes he gets so desperate to pat his Yankees on the back for things as arbitrary as the salary of their long reliever that he feels the need to just make things up.

I think it's pretty ridiculous to think that Gaudin would earn more in arb than Wang ever did, or claim that his below league average performance last year upped his value by over $3 million compared to what he made last year in arb. But I guess it was this kind of reasoning which gets me the "No one cares what you think. WAAAAAAA!" treatment.

I think this is a fair deal for both sides. It was possible that Papelbon could have topped $10 million if this went to arbitration. He was worth $8.8 million last year according to WAR and that was his worst year as a closer. He's been worth over $9 million every other year including a $13.5 million value just two years ago.

Sweet, it would have been incredibly annoying to see the Yankees sign him to some ridiculous 8 year contract. If we can only extend Beckett now, we'll be in a position of strength going into the next offseason with 3 elite starters under contract and none available through free agency.

By all accounts he had a good season as a starter last year? Can you name one person other than yourself just now who has referred to his 4.80+ perfromance as a starter last year in a positive manner? I highly doubt that poor performance somehow drove his worth over $5 million. He was a long reliever/spot starter last year who was league average at best. The Yankees didn't save millions of dollars by avoiding arbitration.

Apparently, the Sox and Bay had agreed on a 4 year/$60 million in July, pending a physical. But an MRI showed damage in both his knees and the Sox withdrew their offer, uncomfortable with signing him any longer than two years. http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/redsox/blog/_/post/4837689

Yeah, but couldn't the same thing be said about any young, talented player? Ellsbury had a .389 OBP in the minors which he's never lived up to in the majors. He's even younger than Cano and he isn't coming off a career year. Wouldn't be a better bet to improve? Pedroia will be nearing his prime years and he's coming off a down year by his standards, Would you say that he's a likely candidate to improve offensively? I try to keep it objective. If I wouldn't say one thing about a Red Sox player (notice I've never said that Ellsbury or Pedroia have a good chance of improving) then I wouldn't say it about a similar Yankees player like Cano. What's fair is fair.

Certainly a better chance than scoring 2,000 runs, I'll give you that Cano will be 27 next year, which is the typical prime of a player's career. But most players don't put up back-to-back career years. Statistically, whenever someone has a career year, they're a pretty safe bet for regression. Cano had a .326 BABIP last year as well. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see any statistical reason to expect improvement next year. As for his RISP splits evening out, it's probably more likely that his .376/.407/.609 line without runners on base evens out, considering that's a much larger outlier from his career averages. I don't buy the "their splits will even out" arguments about Cano and Swisher. A full season is the greatest sample size possible and it's not like these guys were hitting in an extreme pitcher's park. Maybe the splits won't be so dramatic, or they'll reverse. But just because a guy hit really badly with RISP or at home, doesn't mean their overall batting performance is going to improve the next year.