Imperial59

Who cares what Matsui's stats were in 2007 and 2008? We're comparing the team's offense last year with Matsui's 131 OPS+ to what they'll get next year. Hence the title, "offensive regression to be expected?"

Why's that? Granderson's park adjusted stats are significantly worse than Matsui's both last year and over his career.

Perhaps you missed the context.

I guess we can name Daisuke as the Red Sox 8th "biggest problem".

He could, but it's unlikely that both his home and away stats flip over 100 points of OPS. His home splits last year were certainly a lot closer to his career averages.

Um... I never mentioned his batting average. Did you read my post?

Yeah, if we're talking about the players off of steroids, Beltre has much more power

I don't know if he has more power than Lowell EVER had. Lowell did hit 32 home runs one year. But Lowell hasn't reached the 25 home run mark since 2004. Beltre's done it three of the last four years.

Have you ever stopped to wonder why you're the only one who mentioned any kind of a possible dropoff? You're not an idiot, if you take a moment to reflect I'm sure you could come up with something.

Even if Johnson does match Damon's production from last year because of a better OBP, a case could be made, that the offensive production the Yankees are getting from plenty of other starters is likely to regress. Granderson's OPS+ was a dramatic 31 points lower than Matsui's last year. His career average is about 20 points lower than Matsui's. This is very similar to the offensive dropoff from Bay to Cameron which Jacko has described as "massive". Nick Swisher had easily the best offensive year of his career. There's a good chance he regresses to the norm next year. Brett Gardner isn't the same hitter as Melky Cabrera. It's hard to know what kind of an offense Gardner will provide over a full season, but his career .256/.325/.352 numbers are not pretty. Derek Jeter had his best OPS+ since he was 25 years old. The chances of him duplicating that at age 36 are rather slim. Jorge Posada is a 38 year old catcher coming off shoulder surgery last year. Last he he hit well above his career averages, that's not likely to continue.

Damon remains unlikely according to Buster Olney and Joel Sherman. http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4818307&name=olney_buster&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d4818307%26name%3dolney_buster http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardball/yank_signings_and_damon_update_dwU4h9xyVizRGsgSMXP29M

It's not much a concern considering it was related to a different injury which he has no history of and he was put on a shoulder strengthening program this offseason. It's certainly not as much of a cause for concern as having a #2 starter who's been on the DL 9 times this decade.

I'm excited to see what he can do. They're the same people to turned one of the worst defensive SS into one of the rangiest last year.

The dropoff is something that's been discussed multiple times. There's even a thread for it which I've referred you to but you've chosen not to post in it. http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/13674-should-offensive-regression-expected-next-year.html

Do you have any idea how childish you're being?

So you found to incredibly obscure stats and judged his entire performance on that? Wow, that's just sad. Keep picking those cherries homer.

Who do you think you're fooling Jacko? That's not at all what you said. You claimed that Matsuzaka was an injury liability because he had a bad shoulder which he never got repaired. Turns out, it was a leg injury he didn't tell anyone that was bothering him last year. There goes your injury liability theory.

:clap: Irony.

Why the eye roll? Even Jacko has admitted the offense will likely regress if it stands as it is now.