Today, the Red Sox came to terms with their final arbitration eligible player, Jeremy Hermida. So we finally have an accurate idea of what the team's salary will be for next year. Hermida's one year, non-guaranteed contract bring the amount of money we have committed to players to $165,820,833. But that only includes the 25 players on the Red Sox 40-man who are making more than the league minimum. Even if the Sox were to have a player making the league minimum at every other position on their 40-man roster, and none of their big name players reach any incentives in their contracts, that would mean they would be over the Luxury Tax Treshold by $1,820,833.
However, there are a few things to remember here. First of all, a team's salary for the purpose of the luxury tax, is the average team salary over the entire season. There are a variety of ways in which the Red Sox can remain under the luxury tax threshold next year.
1. They could trade Lowell, and get another team to take on a portion of his salary. This seems like a likely move for the Red Sox.
2. They could cut Jeremy Hermida in spring training, and since he doesn't have a guaranteed contract, they would only be liable for 30-days pay. However, they would have to be able to demonstrate that Hermida was statistically inferior to the average player in Spring Training or the Player's Association would likely file a grievance which would lead to the Red Sox having to pay all of Hermida's 2010 salary and Hermida would become a free agent.
3. They could make a variety of other moves to shed salary. Trading Papelbon, Beckett, Matsuzaka or Varitek are some of the more likely options.
So as if now, things could go either way. We'll have to wait and see whether the Red Sox will have to pay the luxury tax for 2010. But as of now, it seems like they could stay under the luxury tax threshold if it was something that was really important to them.