It's an inexact science. Over the course of the years there will be tough judgment calls made when someone who's been here for years makes a post and doesn't get banned because of a good track record where a newer poster might not get the benefit of the doubt from a similar post.
Heck, most people who have been here for a year or two have been banned in one way or another. It's a tough job policing the boards and I appreciate the (general) leeway given in situations where a permaban may be in discussion.
While I wish people around here wouldn't drop like flies, I believe that everything happens for a reason. For example, if I didn't get banned from Soxprospects back in 2008 I probably never would have come here. Or I'd never have grown up in my forum behavior which would have led to me getting perma banned years ago for fighting GOM, JE, or Crespo.
Then again if I got permabanned here I never would have met a particular girl who took the will to live away from me. I guess I'm here for better or for worse.