I particularly like the points he makes towards the end:
What October really needs
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Now that the Angels are out, the team with the best record in baseball has won the World Series just twice in the 16 postseasons since baseball creatively went to the wild-card playoff format. If the Dodgers win it all this year -- and if there is such a thing as a favorite going into the second round, they might well be it -- the playoff team with the worst of the eight records will have won the World Series three times.
One can sympathize with the Angels' frustrations, especially after the final game with the botched squeeze, Jason Bay's bloop and Jed Lowrie's ground ball through the hole. We understand that after winning 100 games they believed they were the best team in baseball, but the fact is they didn't play well in the Boston series. Vladimir Guerrero had his baserunning gaffe, Francisco Rodriguez hung his changeup, they let a pop fly drop for three runs and -- despite Mark Teixeira's astounding play on Mark Kotsay in the final game -- were outplayed defensively by the Red Sox.
The Angels won the season series from the Red Sox 8-1. They are a very good team whose record, in contrast to the clubs in the AL East, was helped by playing 57 games against the Mariners, Rangers and Athletics. But there were some issues, such as the fact that their run differential (+68) was far below that of Boston (+151), Toronto (+104) and Tampa Bay (+103). While the Rays, Jays and Red Sox were 1-3-4 in defensive efficiency among all 30 major league teams, the Angels were 14th. They were a very good team, but not flawless.
Not one of the American League teams was flawless.
Dodgers have the right mix
Now, looking at the League Championship Series, the Dodgers-Phillies matchup seems to be sexier if you go beyond the Mohawks and Tampa Bay's last-to-first fantasy and the mystique of Fenway Park. Manny Ramirez trailed only Albert Pujols in runs created among major league hitters; the Phillies have three of the top 37 in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell. While Boston has three of the top 18 in runs created in Dustin Pedroia(12), Jason Bay (16) and Kevin Youkilis (18), the Dodgers' lineup with Rafael Furcal and Ramirez, Andre Ethier and Russell Martin, Matt Kemp and James Loney is arguably the most dangerous of any of the final four.
L.A.'s pitchers dominated the Phillies at Dodger Stadium (.638 OPS) and were hit for an .818 OPS in Citizen's Bank Park -- all of which makes for a fascinating series. Players theorize that L.A. is a sinkerball-throwing staff, Philly a low-ball-hitting team. Scouts following the Phillies raved about Burrell's final game against the Brewers, in which he went back to driving the ball away to right field rather than spinning off and trying to pull.
Talk about home-field advantage
The Tampa Bay-Boston matchup, on the other hand, could be a defense/pitching series, much like what we saw between the Angels and Red Sox, with a distinct home-field advantage for both teams; the Rays are 23-2 at home when they draw 30,000 or more -- 23-1 since Opening Day -- and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman postulates that for an opposing team, the final nine outs are the hardest in Fenway Park, a thought the Angels must share right now.
With Mike Lowell out for the LCS, David Ortiz's power limited by his wrist, J.D. Drew day-to-day with his back and the former left fielder at home in MannyWood, this is a different Red Sox team, one that needs to learn that Josh Beckett's uncomfortable Game 3, in which he got one swing and miss from a right-handed batter in five innings, was the product of his layoff. Despite Justin Masterson's cross-up in the final game, Boston's bullpen seemed to be emerging, especially Manny Delcarmen, who was throwing 97 and painting his changeup on the inner half of the plate.
Joe Maddon might be the manager of the year, but Terry Francona is the most underappreciated great manager. In his eight postseason series since putting on a Red Sox uniform, Francona has never been outmanaged.
Daisuke Matsuzaka may be unbeaten on the road, but this ThunderDome will be different, with the noise and the cowbells, and the problems his teammates had seeing the ball during the season, when they won just one game in St. Petersburg.
The Rays play great defense and have gotten big hits from Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena, Akinori Iwamura and, most recently, B.J. Upton. Their bullpen has been brilliant. And when they were fighting the Red Sox for first place, they lined up Andy Sonnanstine against Josh Beckett on Sept. 10 and 16 (Beckett allowed a total of nine hits and two runs in 14 innings) and found ways to win both games.
Baseball folks tend to write this series off, but because of Boston's injuries and the unusual nature of the home-field advantage, Tampa Bay probably should be favored. Jon Lester against Matt Garza in a Game 7?
What the World Series really needs
There are those who look to the World Series and pray that Fox gets Manny, Derek Lowe, Nomar Garciaparra and Joe Torre returning to Fenway, which would be great theater.
But what the game really needs is a compelling October. None of the four Division Series came down to fifth game. We haven't had a spellbinding World Series since the Angels came back in Game 6 against Barry Bonds and the Giants and won Game 7, as much as it's hard to forget Josh Beckett in Yankee Stadium in 2003.
The highest-rated World Series for years was Kansas City against St. Louis in 1985. It wasn't exactly New York-L.A., but the two teams evolved for seven games, with some serious controversy bridging the ninth inning of Game 6 over to Game 7 and Joaquin Andujar. The 2001 Diamondbacks-Yankees series and 2002 Angels-Giants series sucked us in and held us because they came down to Game 7, by which time the television audience had grown accustomed to the faces of the actors.
With the unbalanced schedule, the regular season has become six months of fattening frogs for snakes. Now we have a final four that may not be what MLB and Fox want, but it could turn out to be what they need: two seven-game LCS and a World Series that comes down to the ninth inning of a seventh game, making Fernando Perez and Jed Lowrie, Shane Victorino and Russell Martin household names.
Pedroia and his Arizona State sidekick Andre Ethier like to say, "Baseball is not about awards, it's about championships."
It's about Clayton Kershaw facing Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in a seventh inning; J.P. Howell against David Ortiz and J.D. Drew; an unforgettable Jayson Werth at-bat; Jacoby Ellsbury scoring from first on a ball in the right-field corner; Brad Lidge's slider to Manny Ramirez; Jonathan Papelbon versus Evan Longoria.
The bloated drug era has passed; the three highest payrolls are playing golf; Jason Bay and Carlos Pena are the only players in the ALCS to hit 30 homers; and the four teams feature two possible MVPs (Jimmy Rollins, Pedroia) under 5-foot-10. None of the last hundred players left standing are, as was so often said a decade ago, "larger than life."
That, George Mitchell, is a good thing. Now what baseball needs is three Game 7s before we pull the blankets to our chins, and vote.