The Time Has Come: Why the Red Sox Must Trade from Their Outfield Depth This Offseason

2 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

I want to compliment you on your research.  The writer is a parrot with opinions that are always derivative, and you did a great job identifying where his comments came from.  The frustrating part about comments made by some of the writers is that they have absolutely no consistency.  This is the same guy that argued with me when I pointed out that Rafaela needs to move to RF because he's the best defender and in Fenway right field is the most difficult field.  His response was "he played centerfield in the minors".  Now I point out that Anthony played centerfield in the minors and he parrots the marketing departments take on where he should play despite playing centerfield exclusively in the minors.  Absolutely no critical thinking or baseball acumen, just parroting the front office viewpoint.

Duran made 2 errors playing CF in 2021, 2022 and 2023!!!!  Over 300 total chances and just 2 errors.  Then the front office or Cora refused to use Abreu in LF probably because he gets the yips when he's near the fence but for whatever reason he forced Duran after three outstanding years in CF to LF to accommodate Abreu rather than maximizing the defense with Duran remaining in CF and putting Rafaela (modern day Mookie on defense) in RF.  Big mistake.  Abreu leads the team in OF errors over the last two years when he's been handed the GG.  If Rafaela plays RF he's probably a Platinum Glove winner because the right field defenders in the AL are pathetic compared to CF.  Boston also wins more games because Abreu's many errors are eliminated.

Duran proved he's far better in CF than LF but Abreu is the problem because Cora loves the platoon hitter.  He knows his defensive value will be over-rated in RF just like it was when Verdugo played there before Abreu.  Those are meaningless numbers because metrics are completely inaccurate when it comes to outfield defense.  

Duran's step back is factual and it's due to playing LF.  Put him back in CF where he had 2 errors in 3 seasons and you'll see it's the position not his skills that caused the decline in his numbers.  Also, with two studs on defense like Duran and Rafaela it makes perfect sense for Anthony to follow Teddy, Yaz and Rice as superstar left fielders in the Boston tradition.

Again, excellent response.  FYI... when you reference Baseball America and Pipeline, you are likely referencing the same source.  A couple of front office clowns from the Red Sox provide all the opinions to the two baseball sources.  You might as well just turn on NESN because Boston keeps close wraps on all marketing information provided to baseball sources including Baseball America, MLB pipeline, MLB channel and SoxProspects and similar outlets which are local websites like this one.  If you have the time, look for original scouting reports before they get changed up by the front office to maintain a constant narrative.

You made the same exact mistake of attributing Durans defense in 2023/2024 to 2025.  I'm sorry but he took an obvious step back and I think it would be a gave miscalculation to assume he would become a better defender by moving over to a more demanding position. 

And I don't want to sound rude here but you pretty much lose all credibility by lumping Durans outfield play of 2022 and 2021 in there when he was pretty awful in the outfield.  Nobody cares about errors, errors are a judgement call and can vary wildly depending on the person making the ruling.  You could have a guy with 3-4 more errors where's another scorer on another team might of had those ruled as "hits" but that dude has crap range and/or takes poor routes to balls and is an inferior defender.  But you would call the person with less errors better, and you would be wrong. 

I happen to think Duran is an ok defender, but the only elite year he really had was 2024 and I'm not sure he gets back to that, and certainly not because he moves to CF.  I think he would be ok in CF, and if I'm wrong and you're right, and everyone else is wrong and you're right then that just makes Duran an even better trade chip. Because he'd be more valuable to a team who would put him in CF than a team who is going to plug him in LF.  We need infielders, like....maybe 3 of them, we need pitching.  We have a TON of holes. 

I also don't buy the right field is harder to play than cf in Fenway argument either. Right field is certainly more important at Fenway park than other ballparks but I think people just assume that makes it more important.  No, I don't buy it. On average 3-5% more balls are hit to centerfield than right field and 1/2 the games are played away.  You're going to get more outs with Rafaela in CF than anyone else on this team right now. 

After seeing what the Angels got for Taylor Ward I don't know how anyone could be against trading one of our outfielders now.  

Rodriguez was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, looked like he was becoming a MLB starting pitcher last year and is still just 24 years old.

If the Sox packaged Abreu or Duran up with someone like Arias they should get a kings ransom. 

I can live with Duran in CF, but its not ideal because he has lapses in focus and more impactfully, the arm is weak for CF (but fine for LF).

Im less against it than some, but fully healthy I dont think it makes much sense.  If Story/Mayer pick up injuries, it starts making sense to move Cedanne to infield because I think hed be a plus-plus defender at infield even if he wasnt last year and our corner OF depth is better than our CF depth and our inf depth (at present).  Of course, it depends a lot on who is on our 40 man when/if injuries cause some shuffling and of course it also matters who survives the "an OF is getting traded" rumors/likelihood.  Its over 50% (my opinion) that one of Duran, Cedanne, Abreu gets traded.

On 11/18/2025 at 8:56 AM, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but if you do trade one of the 4, an argument can be made for KC or JG to make the 26. (I's prefer bringing Ref back and having the two prospects play FT in AAA.)

I think Campbell has -0- chance of being on the 26 to start the season.  I'd be real happy if he started to hit AAA pitching again.  He had a 19/6 K/W with 1 HR in September.  JG would be a huge gamble to start the season in LF.  He had a 193 K/600 rate in AAA.

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Carrying 12 pitchers puts the team at a disadvantage in an age where starters don't go long into games anymore. With 40 man pitchers, when you send them down, they have to stay down for a set number of days and can't be recalled wily nilly. 

So far as I know, you have to carry no more than 13 of each.

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Good point, Hugh. Ceddanne covers so much ground in center that he makes a lot of plays in LF and RF, too. (the play of the year came when the ball that tipped off Abreu's glove was caught by Rafaela, standing there as a back-up just in case).

Moving the best centerfielder in baseball to another position is folly. Duran has had exactly one good year playing anywhere in the outfield.

When the Sox picked RF for Betts, it was only because Bradley was the better choice in CF. Maybe when he's in his 30s Ceddanne can play middle infield like Mookie, but only if it will complete a World Series team.

Duran is much better in CF than in LF.  It's like trying to compare a SS to a 3B.  There are different athletic skillsets that work better at each position.

Ceddanne is very unlikely to move.  He is arguably the best CF I've even seen, and I go back to Paul Blair.

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Some clickbaits link the Sox to Schwarber, but they’re no more reliable than our posts.

Supposedly Cora wanted Yoshida in the OF last year, and that was probably the driving force behind him just sitting out rather than DHing in Worcester.

I would bet heavily against Boston signing Schwarber, primarily because the Sox have only two returning starting infielders (three if you count Casas) with legitimate durability concerns.  Schwarber does nothing to alleviate this issue, which is something you can’t say about Bregman and Alonso, which is probably a good reason to focus on those two first. Ketel Marte also fills a void, but that is more difficult to make happen (at least for me, since Hazen still won’t return my calls).

But if the Sox are getting interest on both Abreu and Duran, with enough interest they potentially could move both.  That opens up a corner OF spot for Campbell, Garcia, Yoshida, or possibly another acquisition.  They might even give Campbell or Garcia (or both) chances and fix it at the deadline if it isn’t working out.

Really it comes down to what they can get for each.  If the Sox still had Bloom or Cherington, dealing both to bolster the farm would be more likely.  Not really sure Breslow acts similarly, but he might get an offer for each he simply cannot refuse…

 

No way they trade both corner outfielders. If they trade 2 outfielders, one will be cedanne.  Cedanne might even be the first one to go, but they prob like that he can play infield.

7 minutes ago, notin said:

And where did you put Campbell’s chances last March?

I don't remember, but KC would've made more sense in April 24 than he would in April 25.  He has not yet shown that he can play a position or hit the ball.  He absolutely crushed AA and AAA in 2024.  If I see 6-8 weeks of that in 2026, I'd consider bringing him back.  But he should be traded.

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Zero chance is kinda extreme, but a lot depends on how many OF'er we trade and we WILL TRADE ONE.

We will NOT have Campbell on the 26 as a short-side platoon, so that does diminish his chances to make the 26, but I do think Brez sees him as a strong candidate to win te LF job, as long as it doesn't mean Duran or Anthony is benched. Another possibility is Campbell at DH, but with Masa, I doubt it. (Would we play Masa in LF and Campbell at DH?)

If we could get sweet returns for Duran and Abreu, probably within two larger package deals for two guys like Ryan and K Marte, I'd be extremely interested. Neither is overpaid. Both are controlled for more than 1 year. The budget savings would allow us to go large and long on one guy: Alonso or Schwarber.

Of the 4 big league OF'ers, heres how i rank order of likelihood

1, Trade ONE of Duran / Abreu
2. Trade one of Duran / Abreu and also trade cedanne
3. play cedanne at infield
4. Trade both Duran and Abreu

11 minutes ago, notin said:

I think it’s more likely they deal one of the starters plus Garcia.  But he might get offers he simply cannot refuse.

Rafaela is probably the least likely to be dealt, since the Sox have shown they do put some value on defense.  If they didn’t, Devers would still be here butchering 3b…

No, devers got hurt and wasnt healing. The plan was to have devers keep butchering at 3b.

They are more likely to get an offer they cant refuse on Cedanne than on abreu.

The chance they trade cedanne is higher than you think, also - the chance cedanne plays a fair amount of infield this year is higher than you think

I do agree that trading one of duran/abreu + one of campbell / Garcia is higher than the chance of trading or moving Cedanne.  But I would say that the chance that Cedanne is not the full time CF for the red sox next year is unlikely, but not very unlikely

OVer the last 2 years, Durans WAR/game played is 96% higher than Cedannes.  So hes been twice as good (and thats NOT Duran has been twice as good offensively, thats taking offense and defense into account)

But but but but deeeeefense is a yesteryear argument and sox are new school.

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While I do think Ceddane could be a plus defender at 2B, if it becomes his FT position, we know he is GG in CF. He is spectacular out there. If he could reduce the errors, he'll be legendary. He will not be that at 2B.

With the high need some teams have for OF'ers, as evidenced by the Taylor Ward trade, it seems easier to just trade one OF'er rather than juggle things to accommodate Duran or Abreu. Why worsen the D to keep Duran in LF, or worse put him in CF?

I've actually suggested trading Rafaela a few times, but I order it this way (not likelihood but moonslavhood)

1. Trade Duran (maybe and Campbell/Garcia)

2. Trade Abreu (maybe and Campbell not Garcia)

3. Trade Duran & Abreu

4. Trade Rafaela (maybe with Campbell not Garcia)

Rafaela is an A++ defender and even with that , he is the worst outfielder (taking offense and defense into account) of the 3.

Hes a cold streak away from being a fourth outfielder.

Why move Cedanne instead of Duran when that would weaken our D? Because the impact of weakening your D is much less than the impact of weakening your hitting. THis is why oWAR is more correlated with WAR than dWAR

Hitting (50%) = ptiching (40%) + defense (10%)

That being said, there are plenty of teams that I can envision in 2025 that have Cedanne in CF and one of Abreu/Duran traded that would have me excited. Im not saying trade Cedanne over one of the corners, jsut saying its not as unlikely as you old-school folks (no offense) think.

The emphasis on D is going down around the league, not up.  The trend is maximizing offense, which is why defensive versatility is so popular right now.  You wanna be able to shuffle your d around to be able to always have your best bats in there without having an atrocious d (which granted, we've had).

But its about being adequate on D, not putting it first.  And also, even if we flashback 10 years to when D was more emphasized (vs today), even then a lot of the chasing the D was small market teams that couldnt afford to buy a bat to put there, but could afford to put an all D no bat there because they couldnt spend like us. And sure, if you are going cheap at a position, an all D no O player can be very useful. But its not because the all D no O player helps you win more.

There is a reason why Durnas WAR is higher than Cedannes when theyve played very close to the same amount of games.  Not saying I would trade Cedanne before I traded Duran. Just saying that Cedanne is not as good of a ballplayer, even when you take his great D into account.

People love watching cedanne's D, as do I, and Im not looking to move him. But Im not holding him at all costs and with your ranking you are literally saying that YOshida/Campbell, Cedanne, Anthony OF is more  likely than Anthony/Duran, Duran/Anthony, Abreu and I think thats your own defense bias (again, no offense).

Not trying to be stubborn, all Im really saying to you and Notin is that the bottom two of the four likelihoods are certainly the bottom 2 in likelihood, but I think your #3 is here is significantly less likely than your #4

3. Trade Duran & Abreu

4. Trade Rafaela (maybe with Campbell not Garcia)

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think years of control and age are two factors that put Duran in the one slot. (Defense is another reason.)

Three strikes: he's outta here!

You gave three reasons and missed the main one. Duran is better than Cedanne and will return more in a package than Cedanne, who is a borderline bench player if he hits like he did second half of last year (even with his awesome D).

You guys underemphasize hitting.  Its #1.

If Im getting similar packages for Duran and Cedanne, bye bye Cedanne.  Theres a reson his BTV is like 50 and Durans is like 70 despite a big gap in years of control favorring Cedanne.  Hes not as good overall as you think,

Speaking my favorite language (video game rankings)
Cedanne is a 99 defender, and a 74 OVR player
Duran is a 71 defender, and an 82 OVR player

34 minutes ago, notin said:

I refuse to label any individual current member as “unlikely”, and solely because being on the Sox trumps being on the Sox wishlist.  I do think one of Duran or Abreu moves, but I cannot tell you which one, so both are individually likely starters, while the pair is unlikely.  Rafaela is definitely likely to start, despite not being among your favorites (which is ok. Obvious, but ok.)

Breslow brought in a reigning Gold Glove 3b for up to 3 years at the highest AAV in team history, and left the decision to stay up to the player. That doesn’t sound like a makeshift 3b while Devers heals to me.  Plus Cora reportedly wanted Devers to start at 3b in April with Bregman at 2b.  So how much did any injury really affect the decision to move Devers off third?  

REgegarding the first bold, my favorite Red Sox is Crochet, but I dont think I have an anti Cedanne bias.  I would like Cedanne a lot more if we signed Schwarber and traded for Marte.  As I said , there are plenty of teams that I can envision that have Cedanne in CF that I would be over the moon about.  Ive seen you talking about trading Duran for relief pitcher and prospects, talking about getting bregman as your big signing and now you are talking about trading abreu AND Duran. And in my opinion (and I respect you a lot) but in my opinion, you are going a bit too far with underemphasizing the offensive  and willingness to subtract for it.

Im starting to think that your dream team is:

RA
Bregman
Story
Yoshida
Romy
Campbell
Mayer
Romy
Cedanne

And I think you are too comfy with this snoozefest and sub .500 team.  And I dont think its my bias that leads me to believe that if thats the team, than 2026 is gonna STINK. But I will ackowledge that I am literally the worst planet on the planet to determine how much my own biases/preferences are influencing my opinions.  Just like how anybody else on the planet is the least qualified person to speak to whether or not they are biased (theres an old saying that I love that goes: "thing about losing your mind is...you are always the last one to know") . Not to imply either of us are crazy

Regarding your second bold, we were on the same page, and I cheered from afar when you joined my chorus. Which was just get Bregman and figure out the D. WE had missed on a few targets that people wanted, sometimes for the better (monty, teoscar hernandez) and sometimes not (Soto), and it felt like Bregman was one of the few impact players still there.  And I was like just freaking grab him and figure out the D.  I honestly think that had Devers shoulder been 100%, Devers would have played 3b some and DH some, Bregman would have played 3b some and Bregman would have played 2b some.  I think that Bregmans versatility was one of the reasons why they signed him , and they didnt sign him 100% determiend that he was going to be a full time 3B going forward.  I think they put value that he could have been because they knew Devers was a butcher and likely to get hurt in the field, and I think they loved the fact that Bregman could be a full time 3b and it was a high possibility, but I dont think it was get bregman and make him the 3b.  I dont think positions are this rigid in 2025. I think one position players are becoming more and more rare.

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While saying Duran has "3 strikes" I did not intend to minimize the fact that he is a way better hitter tha Rafaela. That is a clear strike one on Ceddanne. Yes, batting is more important, so count it as strike 2 or even 3. That makes em even.

I also failed to mention Rafaela's utility value.

Do trends matter in the scheme of age projections?

fWAR 2024>2025

6.8>4.2 Duran (-2.6)

1.0> 3.8 Rafaela (+2.8)

n/a> 3.0 Anthony

3.1>2.4 Abreu (-0.7 IN SLIGHTLY less playing time)

bWAR

8.7>4.7 Duran (-4.0 and equal to Ceddanne in '25)

2.8>4.7 Rafaela (+1.9)

3.4>3.2 Abreu (-0.2)

n/a>3.1 Anthony

 

Yes trends matter, and for funsies, show me first half 2025 vs second half 2025 on Cedannes WAR and oWAR (dont care which source)

With the 3 strikes and your out comment, I interpreted your comment to mean that its (practically) case closed, Duran will (almost assuredly) get traded and Cedanne (very likely )wont for 3 reasons:
 
1. Age, 2. Control, 3 Defense.

And Im saying the reason why Duran is more likely than Cedanne (by a lot) to get traded (and I agree he is) is for one main reason, thats none of your 3

1. Trade Value

Cedanne is not getting you Lodolo, for example.