Tarik Skubal's Availability Poses An Interesting Red Sox Dilemma: Patience or Aggression?

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I understood what you said.

My point was how much value OF'ers have to teams needing an OF'er.

BTW, although I disagree with these BTV numbers, they place the values at:

49.5 Duran

3.4 Ward

Ward brought back pretty good value on a 1 for 1 trade, but you think Duran does not bring back high value even as a centerpiece of a trade, right? Did I misunderstand that?

Well theres your trade.

Duran for 14 Grayson Rodrirguez's.

(Logic: Ward gets you one GrayRod, and Duran has 14x the value based on these nubmers)

10 hours ago, Old Red said:

We’ll just have to wait, and see IF, and when he gets traded. I just don’t think his value is as high as most think on here, and wouldn’t be any centerpiece for  just anyone, and everyone. Once again wants, and needs.

My belief is you look at a player's body of work not just last year.  Duran is a perfect example because when you look at a player's body of work you consider his defense at each position he plays and where he plays it. 

Duran played 576 games in the minors at centerfield making 6 errors for a .990 fielding percentage.  He played 78 games in RF made 2 errors for a fielding percentage of .974, He played 22 games in LF and made 1 error for a fielding percentage of .955.  To me this suggests that this guy is an outstanding CF and does not belong in the corner outfield positions.  A good manager would make the same observation.

In 5 seasons in the Majors Duran has played 287 games in CF and made 2 errors for a fielding percentage of .997 which is elite.  Thanks to Cora's absolute stupidity he's played 37 less games in LF (250) and made 12 errors for a fielding percentage of .971 (28 points lower than in CF).  He played 10 games in RF and made 1 error for a fielding percentage .944 (53 points lower than in CF).  Given this data only a moron would play him in LF but that's what we have for a manager.  Duran's drop off is strictly from playing a position he's not as good at.  Any player not playing at his best position is going to play worse and it's not a drop in his skill level; it's an idiot manager who knows nothing about maximizing defense based on the stats.

With respect to Abreu, look at his full body of work.  In the minors he played RF 131 games and made 8 errors for a fielding percentage of .969 which is a bad infielder number and a terrible outfield number.  Then he goes to Boston and plays just 3 games in RF in 2023 for a .967 fielding percentage because he made 1 error in three games.  That's consistent to his crap performance in RF in the minors.  Now let's stop using facts and step into the world of modern metric estimates.  This is where a formula estimates the performance rather than using the real data.  This is a perfect example of why it's a joke.

Rtot is 0, Rtot/Yr is 65 (seriously?), Rdrs is 0 (Not negative?) and Rdrs/yr is 0 (once again not negative?)

Metrics provides counter intuitive numbers.  Why?  Simple, flaw in the calculation formula.  Obviously, there are factors hidden within the formula that sway the outcome based on a bias.  My GUESS is that the dimensions of right field skew the actual numbers in favor of the player.  Abreu had 12 games at CF and LF that same year and made 0 errors at both positions, yet his Rdrs/yr was -14 in CF and 32 in LF.  

None of these numbers make sense without knowing the bias buried in the calculation so how can anyone trust them?  Is Abreu significantly different playing these positions?  In the minors his fielding percentage was roughly .980 in LF and CF and significantly lower in RF.  So why do we ever use metrics to define a player's defensive acumen?

I already pointed out the anomalies in his 2023 metrics so let's look at his 2 bogus GGs.  In 2024 in 125 games while playing RF Abreu made a whopping 7 errors compared to Duran playing 105 games in CF and making 1 error.  The bogus metrics produced by these two players are:

RDS Duran 17 Abreu 17  RDS/YR Duran 25 Abreu 22  Abreu got the GG and Duran didn't because RF is incredibly weak compared to CF in the AL.  So who is the better fielder?  Duran without question despite the fake GG going to Abreu.

The guy with 7 errors wins the GG and the guy with far less errors and a higher RDS/YR gets moved to LF by an idiot manager.  What's wrong with this picture?  These are the facts.  If you want to buy into the BS gold gloves that's fine but the REAL stats show a much different picture.  You can thank the errant formula in the defensive metrics for over inflating Abreu's performance.  He's the same average outfielder he was in the minors.  Duran and Rafaela are the elite outfielders who belong in the difficult fields in Fenway Park.  Abreu can't hit lefties and is dramatically over-rated as the numbers show so he should NOT be starting ahead of Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF and Anthony in LF.  It's so obvious yet Cora doesn't see it.  Bias?  You bet.  Killing the Red Sox chances of winning a ring?  You bet.  Is this going to be fixed in the future?  Absolutely not because logic does not supersede Cora bias. 

So, lets ruin the future by keeping the platoon hitter and trading the only legitimate leadoff man we've had since Mookie Betts.  And if we don't trade him, let's keep playing Duran in his weakest position and batting him down in the order so Abreu stays happy.  Good old Cora, he loses at least 10 games a year due to pure stupidity.  And let's keep following the completely illogical numbers produced by metrics rather than using facts to evaluate our players on defense.  

Abreu has played 232 games and has made 13 errors on 558 total chances for a whopping fielding percentage of .976 (7 points higher than his minor league numbers!!) while Duran has 2 errors in 5 years playing CF 287 times and fielding 599 total chances for a fielding percentage of .997.  For me, these numbers don't lead to me moving Duran to LF to accommodate a platoon hitting power hitter that has two bogus GGs due to anomalies in the calculation of metrics in Fenway Park. 

Look it up, LF and RF have components in their formula that vary significantly based on Fewway Park that severely skew the REAL results.  The metric formulas, again, are estimates based on underlying formulas unknown to most of the public and produce really bad results based on specific fielding locations across all Baseball Fields in the MLB.  When Verdugo almost won a GG before Abreu arrived, I was flagged that there is an issue in RF for Fenway Park and now Abreu has proven it by making so many more errors than Duran and being evaluated so much higher.   If it looks wrong, smells wrong and tastes wrong, it's probably wrong.  Abreu gets the yips as he approaches walls unlike Rafaela and Duran or any of the other great outfielders in baseball that don't have 2 gold gloves.  Those GGs will remain bogus throughout time and let's take advantage of the mistakes by trading him as if he is a GG winner.  We will NEVER get more for Abreu than we can get now while most think the metrics are right.

16 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe Arias is blocked by Mayer as Mayer could 3B/SS and Arias could play SS/2B. Arias won't be ready until late 27 most likely, so there isn't much overlap with Story. 

If they deal Mayer this offseason, it's one more hole Breslow has to fill and it would probably be with a contract much larger than Mayer's. I think the FO would rather keep Mayer, but who knows. 

My take is Mayer is destined to play SS especially if Story can't stay healthy like the previous years in Boston.  I could see Arias being moved to 2B if he really is that good but I have no faith that Mayer can stay healthy either, so I have assumed Arias is next up after Mayer rather than Campbell because his small sample on defense last year has erased all he did before last year on defense, it's all been erased from everyone's memory and now his defense is trashed despite playing great defense until age 22.

I don't know if you are old enough to remember Bob Horner but Mayer's injury history is beginning to mimic Horner's.  I hope that changes but I'm not optimistic.

I still find it hard to believe Detroit would ever trade Skubal but I thought the same thing about Crochet in Chicago, so anything is possible, especially if it makes no sense.

Based on your answer, do you believe the Red Sox are going to take the huge step backward of playing Mayer at 3B for Bregman rather than getting Bregman back or an equivalently talented player for 3B.  I assumed Mayer would be the 2B.

There's plenty of truth in Old Red's posts. Duran is worth quite a lot to many clubs, and very little to others. It's all about needs. We shouldn't make the mistake of valuing BTV too much, it's a good tool, but absolutely useless in some ways, and we shouldn't make the mistake of seeing other trades and suddenly valuing our players off it. There are always things at play we don't take into account. You only have to see trade proposals on this forum (and social media) that make next to zero sense from the other team's POV. 

It's fun to compare value and use BTV, but it is much more complicated than this. And we as fans ALWAYS overvalue our own players and prospects. I do it regularly.

37 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Any outfielder with speed knows that the easiest one to play is centerfield. Being positioned directly behind the mound gives the best look at the direction of both pitches and swings, and allows the CFer to get a better jump on batted balls than the corner outfielders. 

There's more ground to cover in CF, but that also gives a really fast outfielder room to outrun bad jumps or misjudgments. Jarren Duran isn't a great centerfielder, but he's better there than at a corner. He's a below-average leftfielder because he doesn't have as much room to compensate from his bad reads.

Duran also doesn't get on base enough to be a great leadoff man. Every Red Sox fan knows the team was at its best last summer when Cora moved Anthony to leadoff.

If you're old enough, then you also know a moron manager when you see it -- like Don Zimmer in 1978, when he batted Rick Burleson and his .295 OBP leadoff, instead of Fred Lynn and his .380 OBP... could the Sox -- with Hall of Famers Rice, Yaz and Fisk hitting behind Lynn, and that quartet getting the most ABs -- have won one more game that season with such a change?

This may be true, speed allows guys to make up for late jumps.  But a defender who can jump quick will always cover more ground.  Especially if they have better instincts and speed, which many CF do.  

More fly balls are hit to LF, because there are more RHH but over more balls go to CF.  So having a guy who can cleanly make a play is very important. 

49 minutes ago, notin said:

As a former OF, completely disagree. A ball hit directly at you in CF can be extremely difficult to judge.  LF and RF give you an angular insight into the ball jumping off the bat…

Hes absolutely right though , that the ball comes at you faster in LF than in CF and it was yet another awesome 5GGOF75, post.  Ive heard plenty of announcers talk about that.

I played left field because I was a bat first player and the coach tried to hide my D, which I feel is typical. "Hide him in left". I cant speak to left vs center or right because I almost always played left, but I imagine I would have been a trainwreck at CF and RF as well.  I could make throws but Im slow and dont read balls off the bat well.

But the thing here that nobody is talking about is the arm.  You arent ever really throwing to first in LF (but you are throwing to third from RF and CF) and usually the throw homes are shorter from LF.

So arm matters too.

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A line drive hit directly at your head anywhere in LF, CF or RF is the hardest play for an outfielder. Always take the first step back, because it's a lot easier to come in on a ball. If your first step is in and you're wrong, they're circling the bases.

But the oppo slices down the lines are by far the trickiest.

(I won't bore you to say how many years I've played outfield, but I bet it's longer than some posters have been alive).

If you are me, you jsut try to position yourself behind the ball and know that you are playing everything off a hop haha. But like usual, you are absolutely correct.

The only good plays I ever made were ones where I let the ball drop in front of me (well didnt let, im just slow and bad at reading so i played so conservatively in left) but it worked out a couple times cuz people knew i was an overall bad defender sotheyd try to take third from first and i gunned down a few people down that way.  But my dWAR was very negative, dont get it twisted.  Just a few times during the season I would gun someone down at third and the team would go nuts that I made a play. But it was more of a bait.  There was a time I prob could have caught the ball but let it bounce in front of me cuz i knew the lead runner was going to try to take third and i had him DOA

35 minutes ago, notin said:

From ages 8-12, we buried the bad OF in RF, because no one hit it there.  But as you advance, the throw from RF to 3b becomes important, and is the reason the strong arm outfielders go to RF.

I played a lot of CF, because I was always a good fielder (with a mediocre arm).  I was like a Little League Jose Siri, but without the tantrums and suspensions.  I did play corner, but as I could run, I was put in CF.  Never struggled with anything on the corners except throws from RF to 3b.  But in CF, if that ball was hit directly at me, i couldn’t judge distance for the first 1-2 seconds.  And nothing was more difficult than running back for one over my head…

I dont know why they put me in LF vs RF when I cant read a fly ball for crap but I do have some arm. I always thought it was because I was bad and they were trying to hide me but yeah more balls to left than right.  Maybe because Im a righty?

Fenway Park presents challenges to each outfield position.  Yes, the ball hit directly at the CF is difficult especially if you don't get a good read from the sound off the bat, yes the corner outfield spots are hard to read due to the flight patterns from righties and lefties being so different plus in Fenway the side wall is very, very tough to read and avoid injury because it's so low in right field  Likewise for the back fence in right field.  I remember Evans being fearless in right field as was Mookie.  Abreu in my opinion is very conservative and slows too soon as he approaches both the back fence and side fence and that's why I will never consider him more than an average outfielder especially with all the errors compared to the other Red Sox outfielders.  One other issue for me with regard to Abreu is technique.  He momentarily blocks his line of sight to the ball when he goes back and to his left to reach over his head for a ball beyond him.  He often misses the ball, but no error is assessed due to the difficulty of the play according to the score keeper.  Mookie, Evans and Rafaela catch that same ball.

LF is a very tricky field in Fenway but for many different reasons than typical leftfield issues like the spin off the bat.  In LF, you have to be excellent at judging the depth of the fly off the bat to know if you play the ball off the wall or go to the wall and catch it.  Duran is NOT good at that.  That's why he needs to play centerfield.  Anthony, on the other hand, will always be in the line-up for his hitting so starting at a young age like other great Boston hitters, it makes great sense to play him in LF and learn the wall so he can come charging to the plate and catch the ball over his shoulder off the wall like Yaz did and throw a strike to the plate.  

The two strongest arms in the outfielders are Rafaela and Abreu.  Rafaela is much fast and quicker than Abreu so he can cover more ground.  He's also fearless unlike Abreu who hesitates as he approaches the wall.  Rafaela defensively can be every bit as good in RF as Mookie and maybe even better.  That's why I believe the outfield needs to be Anthony, Duran and Rafaela to maximize defense.  That outfield rivals Benny, JBJ and Mookie.

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Good post, with specific points that are legitimate concerns.

We didn't talk a lot about outfield arm strength and accuracy; Duran's is average at best. But the Sox won with plenty of fast centerfielders with average arms: Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury. They also had postseason teams with Lynn, Bradley and Rafaela, who had cannons. 

Obviously, Ceddanne's range and arm would be wasted in LF, but moving him to RF may not be optimizing his abilities in bigger ballparks. When the Sox moved Betts to RF it made sense, because JBJ had more experience in CF with Gold Glove jumps. Duran isn't that guy yet -- even as an elite athlete and converted second baseman like Mookie (though it's not fair to compare anyone to a first-ballot Hall of Famer, either).

What's best for the team? If Breslow isn't allowed to spend to fill all the holes this winter, then maybe multiple trades can still make the Sox a contender. If Boston is ready to commit to Garcia in RF -- or platoon him in LF with Yoshida -- then perhaps we could see separate trades for both Duran and Abreu in packages that stabilize an infield position and the pitching staff...

If someone goes down or get hurt, we could go from a glut of outfield players to having it be an area of need.  Still, in that scenario the outfield is still probably in better shape than the infield now.   If the Sox brough in a legit infielder and a legit ace by packaging up Duran/Abreu separately with some value added the team is going to be better off. 

I'm also open to the scenario, where the Sox trade two outfielders not named Roman for a 2b/3b and an SP2 and go out and sign someone like Kyle Tucker.  I'm not saying this is going to happen or these are the guys but imagine subtracting Abreu/Duran but adding Marte/Ryan/Tucker.  I think the team becomes a better team and can win 90 games, maybe even more if they retained Bregman to but now I might really be hitting the pipe. 

One thing to consider is the cash payroll is much lower than the luxury tax payroll.  If the Sox have a hard "cash budget" then they likley have more to spend than we are all guessing here because up until the draft pick penalties going above the LT threshold is just money, which they will spend up until a certain point. 

I think a more realistic situation is to expect one big signing (moderate to big) and one big trade and a few moves we didn't see coming in the mold of the Aroldis Chapmans of the world, which we saw from last year can work out sometimes. 

But I really do not like a Yoshida/Garcia platoon in LF.  Garcia might be a nice platoon player one day but I think he still needs to cook a little bit more

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes I can see JH approving signing a Tucker to who knows how big, and long a contract, and trading 2 relatively cheap OF they have already have?🤭I don’t see any chance of seeing Masa in a platoon with Garcia let alone being in the OF much at all. Garcia has a ticket to Woo already bought also.

Agreed, Garcia didn't come up because he was ready but rather because guys kept going down.  He looks much better at the plate vs. LHP so I can see him being a roster replacement for Refsnyder when he's ready but I think he needs at least a few more months in WOO. 

WHICH MEANS! we either convince Refsynder to play one more year or we are going out and adding a guy to replace him.