Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

So had we did all the moves we did but made the additional move of adding Okamoto, I imagine our second base carousel weakness prob would not have been so weak, maybe thats because Durbin plays 2b and Okamoto plays 3b....Or maybe Okamoto plays DH or first and Contreras plays DH....But I imagine we would have been stronger.

But for it to have been fantastic? We would have had to either win the division or get a round further, and I honestly dont know if that would have resulted.  Im not saying it wouldnt have.  

I honestly feel that had we added Alonso, yes, we would have either won the division or finished second so we get the home games, and I think we would have put up a bigger fight and maybe even got past the yankees.

I know that sometimes you can do everything right and fall short.  Im not saying championship or you fail every year.  Im just saying its hard for me to call it a fantastic offseason when we struggled to hit in the playoffs, and then the next year struggled to hit in the playoffs.  If we got Okamoto, and he stayed healthy, and made a difference....Maybe we get the home games in playoffs, maybe those games are closer....Then yes, of course, the offseason would have been better.

Results arent everything, but they are disproportionately important.  And the results werent there.  We went down in the first round again, it wasnt close, and it was in a manner that I think could have been avoided had we signed Alonso/Okamoto/Bregman ....Just tried harder to add offense to a team that I thought needed more and was proven right.

They are then over the 2nd threshold and face a draft pick penalty. They've shown no interest in doing that. Offset the cost by trading Duran for prospects? 

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

So had we did all the moves we did but made the additional move of adding Okamoto, I imagine our second base carousel weakness prob would not have been so weak, maybe thats because Durbin plays 2b and Okamoto plays 3b....Or maybe Okamoto plays DH or first and Contreras plays DH....But I imagine we would have been stronger.

But for it to have been fantastic? We would have had to either win the division or get a round further, and I honestly dont know if that would have resulted.  Im not saying it wouldnt have.  

I honestly feel that had we added Alonso, yes, we would have either won the division or finished second so we get the home games, and I think we would have put up a bigger fight and maybe even got past the yankees.

I know that sometimes you can do everything right and fall short.  Im not saying championship or you fail every year.  Im just saying its hard for me to call it a fantastic offseason when we struggled to hit in the playoffs, and then the next year struggled to hit in the playoffs.  If we got Okamoto, and he stayed healthy, and made a difference....Maybe we get the home games in playoffs, maybe those games are closer....Then yes, of course, the offseason would have been better.

Results arent everything, but they are disproportionately important.  And the results werent there.  We went down in the first round again, it wasnt close, and it was in a manner that I think could have been avoided had we signed Alonso/Okamoto/Bregman ....Just tried harder to add offense to a team that I thought needed more and was proven right.

While I agree on Alonso making the difference, I doubt Brez gets Contreras, too. Now, maybe instead of the Contreras & Durbin trades, Brez combines the two for an even better player (2B/3B), but who does better than Contreras and .901 and who plays 2B or 3B- the one we don't trade for?

[sk7326]

RIP Todd Benzinger

[sk7326]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They are then over the 2nd threshold and face a draft pick penalty. They've shown no interest in doing that. Offset the cost by trading Duran for prospects? 

It is hard to blame Breslow 100% when the team got zippo from Anthony and disappointingly little from Duran.  Durbin was great for 2 months and bad for the rest of them - but the total package is solid there.

One of the questions they have to ask in conjunction with the obvious Arias one, is whether Mead is good enough and sustainable enough to be the DH (assuming Story is on the roster).  

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While I agree on Alonso making the difference, I doubt Brez gets Contreras, too. Now, maybe instead of the Contreras & Durbin trades, Brez combines the two for an even better player (2B/3B), but who does better than Contreras and .901 and who plays 2B or 3B- the one we don't trade for?

People wanted Otto Lopez before the season. He was much better than Durbin. Paredes had a strong year too. Probably could have figured out a way to acquire both. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

People wanted Otto Lopez before the season. He was much better than Durbin. Paredes had a strong year too. Probably could have figured out a way to acquire both. 

Probably for what we gave up for Durbin and Contreras, yes, but it's hard to know. 

I'm not sure we'd be much better with Alonso, Paredes, Lopez, Gray & no Suarez than what we got. Durbin for 5 years vs Paredes for 2 is a consideration, but the offense would have been pretty good for 2 years.

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Probably for what we gave up for Durbin and Contreras, yes, but it's hard to know. 

I'm not sure we'd be much better with Alonso, Paredes, Lopez, Gray & no Suarez than what we got. Durbin for 5 years vs Paredes for 2 is a consideration, but the offense would have been pretty good for 2 years.

Somebody had to want Duran.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

But for it to have been fantastic? We would have had to either win the division or get a round further, and I honestly dont know if that would have resulted.  Im not saying it wouldnt have.  

As I like to point out, the additions were fantastic.  It was 2025 carry-over crew that sunk us.  In no particular order and no particular reason:

• Narvaez -191 OPS points
• Story -121 & injured
• Duran -141
• Anthony -124 and injured
• Crochet from 2.59 to 6.30 and injured

I know every team has it ups and downs, but that seems like just too much to overcome.

[JoeBrady]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While I agree on Alonso making the difference, I doubt Brez gets Contreras, too. Now, maybe instead of the Contreras & Durbin trades, Brez combines the two for an even better player (2B/3B), but who does better than Contreras and .901 and who plays 2B or 3B- the one we don't trade for?

I've looked at this from a number of angles.  Including the costs in terms of dollars/prospects, I see no way to have made this team any better.  Sign Alonso and you don't have Contreras.  Sign Bregman and you don't have Durbin.  Trade Duran for Paredes and you don't have Durbin.  Sign Schwarber (assuming it was possible) and you likely don't have Suarez.

You could argue any single point, but there is no alternative universe where this team is any more than fractionally better.

[JoeBrady]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

People wanted Otto Lopez before the season. He was much better than Durbin.

13 HRs with a 79/51 K/W and a great glove.

11 HRs with a 89/40 K/W and a great glove.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

13 HRs with a 79/51 K/W and a great glove.

11 HRs with a 89/40 K/W and a great glove.

786 OPS vs 710 OPS

Great glove at SS vs great glove at 3b

34 SB vs 20 SB

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They are then over the 2nd threshold and face a draft pick penalty. They've shown no interest in doing that. Offset the cost by trading Duran for prospects? 

I'm fine with people being upset with JH for not spending more, but to me it is very clear that out GM is given budget limits every winter/year.

The blaming of GMs for not spending what they do not have to spend does not make sense.

These tight budgets are why Brez was forced to  make trades for Gray ($21M cost after STL paydown) and Contreras ($18M after STL paydown) rather than sign guys like Alonso and Cease.

Within the context of the budget Brez was given, adding Contreras, Gray, Suarez, Bennett, Durbin, IKF and a bunch of infield depth was pretty good. Nobody really failed the trade. Some players we dealt away (Harrison & Drohan and maybe Dobbins) did well- some in limited action, but overall, the moves made improved the team. The Mead and AR trades were the most significant additions made, on paper, during the summer in memory. Sure, the Nate and Pearce deals netted better results, but at the time of the deals, IMO, Mead & AR were expected to be more impactful.

Gray

Contreras

Mead

Rutschman

Suarez

Bennett

Durbin

Gasper, T Guerrero, IKF, Seagler, Jones, White & Monasterio

Of course, we added some players that did poorly or got hurt:

Mead, Oviedo, Watson, Kahnle plus Sandoval &Narvaez (added before '25) but IMO, that was one of the best season of additions by a Sox GM since I became a Sox fan in the early 70's.

We didn't improve by enough to advance in the 3 game series with NYY, and that is the bottom line for many posters. It's not like I'm okay with this, but this is baseball, and no team should ever be judged solely by a 3 game series.

We have some holes going into 2027, and the winter budget limit is largely unknown. I agree with MVP that going over the 2nd threshold is likely the uppermost limit. We are not far from that, now, counting projected arb numbers.

There are some ways Brez can trim the budget without creating now holes that need filling, but other than Duran's $11M and maybe KC's $7.5M, most are under $5M (Story & Yoshida after paydowns added.)

The amount and quality of players & prospects Brez traded away in the last year has greatly hampered his ability to make more impactful trades, this winter. We have a blue chipper in Arias, but need a SS upgrade now or after Story bolts (depending on how you view Trevor.) We have purple chippers in Gonzalez and Primera, but I doubt we get what we need, and losing their upside potential seems not worth losing one or both. Valera, Godbout and others are not moving the trade needle significantly enough.

IMO, we have enough for one big trade involving Arias for a big bat SS. We may have just enough budget space, assuming no Duran and maybe no  Story or Yoshida or KC to add one big bat (Suzuki or Sato?) or pitcher (Gray, N Martinez or Morejon?) If that's not enough, I'd be content knowing Brez did his best and JH's greed kept us from adding more.

 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Somebody had to want Duran.

If I could ask Brez one question that he promised to answer fully, it might be "Who was offered in return for Duran?"

If it was Paredes 1 for 1, that's a major ding on Brez, even if somewhat hindsight.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

As I like to point out, the additions were fantastic.  It was 2025 carry-over crew that sunk us.  In no particular order and no particular reason:

• Narvaez -191 OPS points
• Story -121 & injured
• Duran -141
• Anthony -124 and injured
• Crochet from 2.59 to 6.30 and injured

I know every team has it ups and downs, but that seems like just too much to overcome.

Yup, and I expected Abreu to improve and his OPS went down a little (His OPS+ did not.)

Also, Mayer got worse from a pretty bad 2025. All the pitchers on the IL that never came back hurt, too.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I've looked at this from a number of angles.  Including the costs in terms of dollars/prospects, I see no way to have made this team any better.  Sign Alonso and you don't have Contreras.  Sign Bregman and you don't have Durbin.  Trade Duran for Paredes and you don't have Durbin.  Sign Schwarber (assuming it was possible) and you likely don't have Suarez.

You could argue any single point, but there is no alternative universe where this team is any more than fractionally better.

Even counting what we gave up for Contreras, he was a better add than Alonso & Schwarber, due to his $18M budget hit.

Suarez was a plus, just not for the offense. I still think his money spent is better than signing Bregman, and Bregman cost more- so did Alonso.

In your scenario, signing Bregman meant no Durbin AND no Suarez, but we still could have traded Durbin for Paredes (2B) and had a much better offense. (Then, we keep early and dont get Mead, but Early never returns from his injury, so no gain or loss there.)

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You could argue any single point, but there is no alternative universe where this team is any more than fractionally better.

Name a Sox year NOV to NOV where a GM did better with additions than this:

 

Gray

Contreras

Mead

Rutschman

Suarez

Bennett

Durbin

Gasper, T Guerrero, IKF, Seagler, Jones, White & Monasterio

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If I could ask Brez one question that he promised to answer fully, it might be "Who was offered in return for Duran?"

If it was Paredes 1 for 1, that's a major ding on Brez, even if somewhat hindsight.

They wanted Abreu, not Duran. I don't think they would have done Duran for Paredes. 

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Name a Sox year NOV to NOV where a GM did better with additions than this:

 

Gray

Contreras

Mead

Rutschman

Suarez

Bennett

Durbin

Gasper, T Guerrero, IKF, Seagler, Jones, White & Monasterio

And yet it took a magic carpet ride, which included a once in a lifetime 15 game winning streak to win less games than the year before scoring 97 less runs, and hitting 26 less homes, and concluded with a shorter cameo appearance in the postseason than the year before. WOW!🤔