Rays (Scholtens) vs Red Sox (Early): 5/8/26, 7:10pm

[notin]

21 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I expect players like Schwarber, Bichette, and Alonso will come somewhere close to their career averages, especially their averages over the past three years or so. While I am pleased that Rafaela seems to have improved I am in a wait and see mode with him. I expect that as the season progresses he will lose the shine he has now. The trio of BUMS we signed instead of signing more expensive more talented players will continue to SUCK.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that line of thinking. It is totall rational.

Bichette is a tough call, but Alonso might for 1-2 years and then start declining at an indeterminable pace.  But his last 3 numbers (as previously shown) are the same as Contreras.  Arguing for him is kind of moot.  

Id rather have Contreras in and out in 2 years than watch 36yo Pete Alonso pretend he can still bat cleanup and play 1b…

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I expect players like Schwarber, Bichette, and Alonso will come somewhere close to their career averages, especially their averages over the past three years or so. While I am pleased that Rafaela seems to have improved I am in a wait and see mode with him. I expect that as the season progresses he will lose the shine he has now. The trio of BUMS we signed instead of signing more expensive more talented players will continue to SUCK.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that line of thinking. It is totall rational.

We traded for almost all of our better talent, but to you just depth signings are to be considered. That's a serious flaw.

Stop mentioning Gasper and your points will make more sense. The guy was picked up on waivers as minor league depth and probably is better than most teams have for minor league depth. IKF is paid $6M, which is maybe $2M too much, and he has sucked on offense, but of he "returns to his norm" would be fine as the 26th man on the roster, and no $2M should cause his name to be mentioned. It wasn't IKF vs Alonso, Bichette, Schwarber or Bregman. It turned out to be Suarez & Durbin.

Your point that they could have done both is valid and I don't disagree, except on Bichette and Bregman. (I stated that day one, so this is not about their slow starts. I too expect them to do better.) That leaves Schwarber, who I wanted a lot and Alonso, who I wanted before we snagged Willson. Willson is about as good at hitting as Alonso and a much better defender. He's much cheaper, but to follow your philosophy, that should not matter. I'll take Contreras as equal pay and 3 yrs vs Alonso at 5. Now, it's down to Schwarber vs IKF or Durbin, but he doesn't play the infield, so we'd probably have Durbin & IKF, too, so basically it was just adding Schwaber and dumping Yoshida, which comes at an enormous cost. Putting cost aside, again, I have to look at Schwarber's age and think that while I really wanted that bat, the length of contract was not just 1 year too long: it is likely 2-3  years too long. I guess only time will tell.

Signing lesser bats (ESuarez/ Polanco types) would have shown more effort, but we'd have zero more wins now. Signing Okamoto or Murakami look like great moves, now in hindsight, but let's wait to see if pitchers figure them out and they become the next Yoshidas or better. Trading for Donovan or BLowe would have been much better than Durbin, and they would have cost more in trade, but how many of us pounded our fists on the table for them?

I was begging for KMarte or Neto, later on, but I'm not sure either gets us to a ring. 

I have never disagreed with you on the need for JH to do more and to go large and long on someone. This year, I think Schwarber looked like the best target with Alonso and R Suarez maybe next in line. Had we gotten R Suarez and not Sonny Gray and added a big bat on top of Contreras (notice I did not say elite, as that is a loaded term that even you back-tracked on a while ago.) I agree with you more than you may think, but I disagree with the whole Gasper, IKF & Durbin noise, and note only 1 was really a "signing."

Every team loads up with the Gaspers of the world, and he had nothing to do with any big deals Brez missed out on. Had we added a 2Bman or 3Bman, one from Durbin & IKF would likely not be here, so that one has some merit, but not for Schwarber or Alonso, the two you now mention the most, and I dare say you no longer mention Bregman and Bichette as much due to their poor(er) starts. That is speculation on my part, and I am fully aware my positions have flaws, too. Hell, I wanted KMarte. I'm not trying to say my ideas were better than yours, but the listing of our 25, 26 and 27 menon the roster over and over (IMO) doesn't help your case.

[FredLynn]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We traded for almost all of our better talent, but to you just depth signings are to be considered. That's a serious flaw.

Stop mentioning Gasper and your points will make more sense. The guy was picked up on waivers as minor league depth and probably is better than most teams have for minor league depth. IKF is paid $6M, which is maybe $2M too much, and he has sucked on offense, but of he "returns to his norm" would be fine as the 26th man on the roster, and no $2M should cause his name to be mentioned. It wasn't IKF vs Alonso, Bichette, Schwarber or Bregman. It turned out to be Suarez & Durbin.

Your point that they could have done both is valid and I don't disagree, except on Bichette and Bregman. (I stated that day one, so this is not about their slow starts. I too expect them to do better.) That leaves Schwarber, who I wanted a lot and Alonso, who I wanted before we snagged Willson. Willson is about as good at hitting as Alonso and a much better defender. He's much cheaper, but to follow your philosophy, that should not matter. I'll take Contreras as equal pay and 3 yrs vs Alonso at 5. Now, it's down to Schwarber vs IKF or Durbin, but he doesn't play the infield, so we'd probably have Durbin & IKF, too, so basically it was just adding Schwaber and dumping Yoshida, which comes at an enormous cost. Putting cost aside, again, I have to look at Schwarber's age and think that while I really wanted that bat, the length of contract was not just 1 year too long: it is likely 2-3  years too long. I guess only time will tell.

Signing lesser bats (ESuarez/ Polanco types) would have shown more effort, but we'd have zero more wins now. Signing Okamoto or Murakami look like great moves, now in hindsight, but let's wait to see if pitchers figure them out and they become the next Yoshidas or better. Trading for Donovan or BLowe would have been much better than Durbin, and they would have cost more in trade, but how many of us pounded our fists on the table for them?

I was begging for KMarte or Neto, later on, but I'm not sure either gets us to a ring. 

I have never disagreed with you on the need for JH to do more and to go large and long on someone. This year, I think Schwarber looked like the best target with Alonso and R Suarez maybe next in line. Had we gotten R Suarez and not Sonny Gray and added a big bat on top of Contreras (notice I did not say elite, as that is a loaded term that even you back-tracked on a while ago.) I agree with you more than you may think, but I disagree with the whole Gasper, IKF & Durbin noise, and note only 1 was really a "signing."

Every team loads up with the Gaspers of the world, and he had nothing to do with any big deals Brez missed out on. Had we added a 2Bman or 3Bman, one from Durbin & IKF would likely not be here, so that one has some merit, but not for Schwarber or Alonso, the two you now mention the most, and I dare say you no longer mention Bregman and Bichette as much due to their poor(er) starts. That is speculation on my part, and I am fully aware my positions have flaws, too. Hell, I wanted KMarte. I'm not trying to say my ideas were better than yours, but the listing of our 25, 26 and 27 menon the roster over and over (IMO) doesn't help your case.

Every player who takes up a roster spot is taking it in place of another player. In the case of Gaspar, IKF, and the bum Durbin their roster spots could have been used by Schwarber, Alonso, Bregman, or Bichette. Not all of them, obviously, but its pretty clear to anyone who thinks about this rationally that we signed bums to be on our roster rather than more talented and MORE EXPENSIVE players. THAT is a fact.

[FredLynn]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

Bichette is a tough call, but Alonso might for 1-2 years and then start declining at an indeterminable pace.  But his last 3 numbers (as previously shown) are the same as Contreras.  Arguing for him is kind of moot.  

Id rather have Contreras in and out in 2 years than watch 36yo Pete Alonso pretend he can still bat cleanup and play 1b…

How many times do I need to write the same explanation??? It isn't a case of Alonso OR Contreras. Its a case of Alonso AND Contreras. Yes, that means we would have to dump someone, likely Yoshida. But we would be a much better team that way.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Bichette is a tough call, but Alonso might for 1-2 years and then start declining at an indeterminable pace.  But his last 3 numbers (as previously shown) are the same as Contreras.  Arguing for him is kind of moot.  

Id rather have Contreras in and out in 2 years than watch 36yo Pete Alonso pretend he can still bat cleanup and play 1b…

Bichette was the youngest, for sure, but very far from being an "elite" batter. We can argue all day what "elite" is, but to me it's over .900 or maybe 5 straight years over .850 as the minimum. Bichette reached .840 once. His career OPS is .794, but more concerning is the last 5 years are worse (.770.) From 2024 to today is .724. Why should we view this guy as anything close to a savior for our poor offense, today? Just sign him because he turned 28?

Bregman is a better hitter, but far from elite. He plays near GG defense and helps his teammates with advice, but why is he included in any "big bat" talk? He's worse than Contreras on offense, yet Fred and others used to list him as one of the targets Brez flopped on. He's 4 years older than Bichette, and most view 32 as on the wrong side of prime. He has a decent .839 career OPS, but that is not "elite." He was elite in 2017 & 2018 and had a few seasons around .800 to .821, including last season with the Sox. He's been dealing with very long slumps in the past few years, and has relied on some pretty long super hot streaks to salvage his end of year numbers. Like Bichette, his career .839 OPS tops his last 5 year OPS (.799.) It's just one point below .800, but even 800 is not close to elite. Since 2024, his OPS is .774. I'm not sure why MVP refuses to admit he's in decline, but he is. He is not elite and he may get way worse over his way too long contract.

Schwarber and Alonso have defied the post prime curves. Both have been elite or near elite batters in recent years. They've actually had some of their best season post-prime. BTW, so has Willson. Alosno is 31.5, now. He has an .853 career OPS, si IMO, I'm fine with saying "elite." My concern is the age, but I'd have been fine with him for 5 years as our DH with Contreras at 1B for his 2-3 year remaining deal. Alonso's most recent 5 year OPS (.842) is almost the same as his career. It's been .823 since 2024, so maybe that is proof he has started his decline, and 5 years was way too much. That position has merit, too. Schwarber is the outlier. he's had a lot of great seasons, several cut short by injuries. The .848 career OPS can be considered "elite" in my book, and he recent seasons have not diminished that standing, despite the age concerns, but those concerns do not go away for a guy who just turned 33 and has a 5 year deal. His .867 OPS over his last 5 years is an uptick over his career numbers. The only one of these 4 guys to do that. The fact that he's the oldest of the 4 is surprising. What's even more surprising is his .891 OPS since 2024, when he was 31 to 33 years old. He shows no signs of slowing down, but at 33 the worry is there.

Of course any FA signing is a worry or has some worries. The trade for Contreras brought worries, too. He's older than Scharber and turns 34, soon. His years of control makes the worry less, and one of his years remaining is a team option. His career OPS is .812, which is better than Bichette's but pretty far away from Bregman and the others. However, his recent 5 years (.809) and since 2024 (.818) numbers are better than all but Alonso (close) and Schwarber (not close.) He's not shown signs of decline, and while .809 to .818 is not "elite" by my definition, he's pretty close to Alonso and has been better than B & B, of late.

Contreras and Schwarber would have been great for the offense, but we'd still have needed a decent 3Bman or 2Bman to have a complete team, so in a sense, we fell short two major players- one if we decided not to add Gray or Suarez to help pay or acquire an infielder better than Durbin + IKF.

I'd have been thrilled if JH opened the wallet wide enough for adding Schwarber plus a better infielder and had it been someone like BLowe, the cost would not have been enormously more, unless we also added Suarez and Gray.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Every player who takes up a roster spot is taking it in place of another player. In the case of Gaspar, IKF, and the bum Durbin their roster spots could have been used by Schwarber, Alonso, Bregman, or Bichette. Not all of them, obviously, but its pretty clear to anyone who thinks about this rationally that we signed bums to be on our roster rather than more talented and MORE EXPENSIVE players. THAT is a fact.

Of course it's a fact, but it's meaningless. If Gasper is 40th, he's taking the place of #30 or is placed at #41 not #1.

The calculation is Gamboa as #40 or Gasper as the #40.

Is that not a fact?

Had we added Schwarebr or Alonso, we'd still have needed Durbin and or IKF. Certainly, JH could have afforded Schwarber plus someone better than IKF/Durbin/Gasper/Monasterio, but that is another issue.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

How many times do I need to write the same explanation??? It isn't a case of Alonso OR Contreras. Its a case of Alonso AND Contreras. Yes, that means we would have to dump someone, likely Yoshida. But we would be a much better team that way.

Yes, Alonso or Schwarber takes Yoshida's DH slot, but we'd still need a 2B/3Bman, and you keep mentioning IKF vs Alonso and IKF vs Schwarber.

Now, Bichette or Bregman vs IKF makes more sense, although I wanted neither.

[Bellhorn04]

Bregman's numbers are mediocre to this point.  Now if you buy into the idea that he doubles as a hitting coach, he seems to be doing a hell of a job!

[notin]

24 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

How many times do I need to write the same explanation??? It isn't a case of Alonso OR Contreras. Its a case of Alonso AND Contreras. Yes, that means we would have to dump someone, likely Yoshida. But we would be a much better team that way.

We needed an infielder, not another 1b/DH.  How many times do you need to be told? 
 

Please don’t say “we should have just dumped Yoshida.”  First of all, learn how benches work.  Yoshida isn’t even a starter if everyone is healthy.  So sign Alonso and the Sox bench … Duran? Anthony? Abreu?  But in this scenario, the Sox start who in the infield with Story and Mayer?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bregman's numbers are mediocre to this point.  Now if you buy into the idea that he doubles as a hitting coach, he seems to be doing a hell of a job!

Yeah so good he made the Cubs all better last year, too…

[moonslav59]

It's always hard for me to decide which major FA we should overpay. I don't want to speak for others, but it seems easier for some.

There are a group of posters who try to think in terms of a limited winter budget and think it has to be play A or player B and never can be both. Another group feels the budget should or can be near limitless and JH should and can spend whatever it takes to fill the major needs the team has in the winter with some of the best players available.

Most of us felt we need a major SP'er addition, a good pen arm added and at least 2 big bats with one needed at 3B or 2B and the other at 1B. Some wanted more than that, and some wanted us to break up the OF/DH logjam to better balance the IF vs OF disparity in talent and depth.

It's easy to just say, "We needed to add X, Y and Z and we fell short of that," but when you look at what the options were and the history of major FA signings, the success rate is not high. Couple that with many poster's views on Brez's capability to make good moves, it seems sort of like contradictory or flawed thinking. I guess if you think we can and should be the the Dodgers East and can afford to swing and miss on multiple big signings in hopes that a few work out, eventually we will land enough additional players to give us the boost we need to get to the point of top competitiveness, it's okay to swing and miss.

IMO, that is not going to happen, and the solution is not for JH to sell the team, unless we can be sure the next owner is committed to being the next Dodgers East. How does that happen? How can that be guaranteed?

I've seen over 50 years of Sox ownership and management and know the history since the sale of Babe Ruth. I'm not so sure the next guys are going to be an improvement, I'm not for making changes just for change sake. Ousting Cora is one thing, but bringing in new ownership is another thing.

[JoeBrady]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That pretty much shows the flaw in your thinking.

That's a genetic thing with some RS fans.  It's still early for the other 29 teams, and the other754 players.  But the sets in early April for the RS.

[FredLynn]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course it's a fact, but it's meaningless. If Gasper is 40th, he's taking the place of #30 or is placed at #41 not #1.

The calculation is Gamboa as #40 or Gasper as the #40.

Is that not a fact?

Had we added Schwarebr or Alonso, we'd still have needed Durbin and or IKF. Certainly, JH could have afforded Schwarber plus someone better than IKF/Durbin/Gasper/Monasterio, but that is another issue.

That is THE issue. The cheapskate owner tried to build a team on the cheap-and the current version of the FLOPS is a testament to that failure.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm sure you still expect Rafaela to crater,

I do remember Fred pointing out Rafaela's 2 Ks in his first ST game as evidence of his collapse.

[FredLynn]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

That's a genetic thing with some RS fans.  It's still early for the other 29 teams, and the other754 players.  But the sets in early April for the RS.

Show me where I said it’s “stil early for other teams”-or admit you made it up.

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I do remember Fred pointing out Rafaela's 2 Ks in his first ST game as evidence of his collapse.

I hope I’m wrong about this but I expect that this flash in the pan that Rafaela has shown us will melt into the usual incompetence with a bat in his hands by September at the latest.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Show me where I said it’s “stil early for other teams”-or admit you made it up.

You did say it was still early for Alonso and Bichette…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Bichette is a tough call, but Alonso might for 1-2 years and then start declining at an indeterminable pace.

As I like to point out, if the team is not ahead in the contract after year 1, it is unlikely they will ever be ahead.

[notin]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

I hope I’m wrong about this but I expect that this flash in the pan that Rafaela has shown us will melt into the usual incompetence with a bat in his hands by September at the latest.

A 25 yo old hitter who’s OPS has improved every year and was league average last year is an “incompetent hitter”?

 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's a genetic thing with some RS fans.  It's still early for the other 29 teams, and the other754 players.  But the sets in early April for the RS.

And their 100 OPS+ hitters are average, while our are apparently “incompetent”.

Or my favorite - if the Sox extend their younger players and pay them, it makes those players lose their drive and settle into mediocrity.  But if the Sox give even more money to a 30+ player, he will clearly focus and play to the best of his abilities and never age for the life of the contract…

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

You did say it was still early for Alonso and Bichette…

Here's his quote:

The jury is still out on Bichette and E Suarez too. The season is early

No one has ever lost money betting against my memory, but no one should challenge me on something I read 5 minutes ago.

[FredLynn]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

A 25 yo old hitter who’s OPS has improved every year and was league average last year is an “incompetent hitter”?

 

You are satisfied with "league average". I am not. If we didn't already have a bunch of black holes in the lineup it would be fine if Rafaela were league average. But we do..........

[FredLynn]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

You did say it was still early for Alonso and Bichette…

Are Alonso and Bichette "other teams"? Thats what Brady misquoted me as saying. I referred to PLAYERS, not teams. It IS already too late for the FLOPS...and for other teams.

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's always hard for me to decide which major FA we should overpay.

It's supposed to be hard.  If any of these players were no-brainers, their price would be higher that whatever it wound up being.  And I don't take umbrage at fans preferring to sign Bregman over Suarez.  I disagree, but there is merit to both approaches.

What I do object to is posters thinking that the FO has to HAS to sign whomever they prefer, and that's usually a HR hitter with few other attributes.  

[notin]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

You are satisfied with "league average". I am not. If we didn't already have a bunch of black holes in the lineup it would be fine if Rafaela were league average. But we do..........

Hes 25, improving snd not the problem…

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's supposed to be hard.  If any of these players were no-brainers, their price would be higher that whatever it wound up being.  And I don't take umbrage at fans preferring to sign Bregman over Suarez.  I disagree, but there is merit to both approaches.

What I do object to is posters thinking that the FO has to HAS to sign whomever they prefer, and that's usually a HR hitter with few other attributes.  

The FO absolutely doesn't have to do what the fans want. Why on earth would you even think that. And why would you think that fans always want a HR hitter? It depends on our needs. Sometimes its pitching; sometimes its depth at a position; sometimes its a HR hitter. Your approach is simplistic.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

You did say it was still early for Alonso and Bichette…

That they should move towards their career norms, but the Sox players will continue to flop.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Are Alonso and Bichette "other teams"? Thats what Brady misquoted me as saying. I referred to PLAYERS, not teams. It IS already too late for the FLOPS...and for other teams.

But you have repeatedly said that these other players will eventually revert to their career (or last 3 years) stats, but you don’t acknowledge that many Sox players are in position to do the exact same thing.   So other players will play to their abilities but not Sox players?

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

That they should move towards their career norms, but the Sox players will continue to flop.

Bichette is a tough call.  If healthy, Hes at the age many players explode.  But if he isn’t, he could be an expensive sinkhole for the Mets…

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Hes 25, improving snd not the problem…

It's funny for someone purporting to be a RS fan to be unaware that Rafaela has a 116 OPS+ and probably the best glove in the game.