Rays (Scholtens) vs Red Sox (Early): 5/8/26, 7:10pm

[notin]

10 hours ago, iortiz said:

Pitching is going to be good, they had the golden opportunity to add elite bats this offseason and they didn’t. Anthony is still a project with serious injury prone concerns. Story is done. Yoshida is meh. Duran and Rafaela  are above average at best. Narvaez, Wong, and Durbin average at best. Mayer is also a project. Offensively we are cooked. We need at the very least 2 elite bats to open the WS window. 

Elite bats?? Plural?
 

Please don’t tell me you think Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman are “elite bats”…

[FredLynn]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

Elite bats?? Plural?
 

Please don’t tell me you think Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman are “elite bats”…

Alonso has a career OPS of .857. How many FLOPS players have an OPS of .857 this year? Alonso will end up the year close to his career average I am sure. Answer: one. Only Abreu.

Compared to the wet noodle bats currently on the FLOPS Alonso IS elite. Too bad we didn't sign him, eh?

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Alonso has a career OPS of .857. How many FLOPS players have an OPS of .857? Compared to the wet noodle bats currently on the FLOPS Alonso IS elite.

I don’t care about OPS. Don’t look now, but Alonso has caught the Con Man in HR with 8, and is now only 1 RBI behind him. As I said before the season if healthy Alonso will hit more HR, and have more RBI than the con Man. Remember also the Red Sox went after Alonso first, and then turned to the Con Man.

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t care about OPS. Don’t look now, but Alonso has caught the Con Man in HR with 8, and is now only 1 RBI behind him. As I said before the season if healthy Alonso will hit more HR, and have more RBI than the con Man. Remember also the Red Sox went after Alonso first, and then turned to the Con Man.

Contreras is a good player and is making a positive contribution to the team. However Alonso is a more potent offensive weapon. He is having so far an off year for him but I expect he will end up somewhere near his career OPS. I prefer OPS+ as the single best metric to evaluate a player's offense; couldn't find it with a quick search. Henry was too cheap to sign Alonso and as usual he lost the bidding war.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Contreras is a good player and is making a positive contribution to the team. However Alonso is a more potent offensive weapon. He is having so far an off year for him but I expect he will end up somewhere near his career OPS. I prefer OPS+ as the single best metric to evaluate a player's offense; couldn't find it with a quick search. Henry was too cheap to sign Alonso and as usual he lost the bidding war.

It wasn’t much of a bid, but they did lose out on Alonso who might have been plan B to Bregman being plan A.

[JoeBrady]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t care about OPS. Don’t look now, but Alonso has caught the Con Man in HR with 8, and is now only 1 RBI behind him. As I said before the season if healthy Alonso will hit more HR, and have more RBI than the con Man. Remember also the Red Sox went after Alonso first, and then turned to the Con Man.

I doubt that there will be a material difference between the two.  If your only focus is HRs, and only in 2026, then you are probably better off with Alonso.

If you value defense, OBP, and value, then you're better off with Contreras.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It wasn’t much of a bid, but they did lose out on Alonso who might have been plan B to Bregman being plan A.

As others here have pointed out the major reason we stink this year is because the existing players are not producing. I contend that this is in part because they are demoralized that the FO didn't obtain high quality offensive players like Alonso or Schwarber, giving the roster a loud no confidence vote, saying "we don't believe you guys can contend this year so we are not going to spend the money to help you out". Its like that year after year with Henry the Cheap in charge.........and it won't change. The FLOPS are just another piece of his portfolio, there to make him more money. He couldn't care less about winning.

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I doubt that there will be a material difference between the two.  If your only focus is HRs, and only in 2026, then you are probably better off with Alonso.

If you value defense, OBP, and value, then you're better off with Contreras.

HR puts runs on the board in the moment. Con Man is pretty slick around the bag for only playing there one year though. Alonso has put up better power numbers than the Con Man all through out their careers. Since 2019 when Alonso came into MLB Alonso has hit 264 HR to the Con Man’s 127. 712 RBI for Alonso, and 385 for the Con Man. Not even close. You can have any OPS, or just OBP, and I’ll take the other stats anytime.

[notin]

59 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Alonso has a career OPS of .857. How many FLOPS players have an OPS of .857 this year? Alonso will end up the year close to his career average I am sure. Answer: one. Only Abreu.

Compared to the wet noodle bats currently on the FLOPS Alonso IS elite. Too bad we didn't sign him, eh?

Pete Alonso is not an elite hitter.  Not even with ridiculous definitions like this.  
 

Especially since his career mark, which Alonso is not on pace for, is only .015 ahead of what Contreras is actually hitting. At best he’s a lateral move.  But not yet.  Not until he actually starts hitting…

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, iortiz said:

Pitching is going to be good, they had the golden opportunity to add elite bats this offseason and they didn’t. Anthony is still a project with serious injury prone concerns. Story is done. Yoshida is meh. Duran and Rafaela  are above average at best. Narvaez, Wong, and Durbin average at best. Mayer is also a project. Offensively we are cooked. We need at the very least 2 elite bats to open the WS window. 

More than 50% of the "elite bats" from last winter are underperforming or vastly underperforming. When you then consider our track record on selecting "the right guy" with our largest FA bat signings, I do pause to wonder why we put so much hope into that avenue as "the solution." I'm not calling out posters for being wrong, as I was calling for major signings, too, but the results of major bat signings out of the gate does not look good:

In order by largest contract (age) OPS

Tucker (29) .739

Bregman (32) .677

Bellinger (30>31) .899

Alonso (31) .786

Schwarber (33) .893

Bichette (28) .571

None over .900, two doing well (800-900), one doing okay (750-799) and three doing poorly, including one very poorly (under 750)

2-1-3 (more bad than good)

______________

$60-$120M

Naylor (28>29) .681

Okamoto (29>30) .825

1-1

_____________

$25M>$59M

Realmuto (35) .677

Polanco (32>33) .532

Murakami (26) .947 (The only one over 900)

1-2

_________________

Total:

1 Great (Murakami- the guy nobody here wanted)

3 Good (over 800) Schwarber, Bellinger, Okamoto

1 Okay (750-799) Alonso

4 Bad (650-749) Tucker, Bregman, Naylor

2 Horrific (<650) Bichette & Polanco 

____________

4 Good to Great

1 Okay

6 Bad or worse

Most of us wanted to see an effort, and the pivot from Bregman to Suarez was a gut punch to hopes for a good offense or better, but he has saved the pitching staff- he and the kids.

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t care about OPS. Don’t look now, but Alonso has caught the Con Man in HR with 8, and is now only 1 RBI behind him. As I said before the season if healthy Alonso will hit more HR, and have more RBI than the con Man. Remember also the Red Sox went after Alonso first, and then turned to the Con Man.

Whether or not you care about OPS doesn’t change the validity of the argument.  Especially when you counter with RBIs, a stat you probably don’t understand.

Pete Alonso has come up to bat with 107 runners on based and driven in 14 of them.  Willson Contreras has come up with 91 runners on base and driven in 15 of them.  

And somehow you think these two are equal on this stat?  If you’re going to keep using RBI, learn how to make them useful…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Alonso has a career OPS of .857. How many FLOPS players have an OPS of .857 this year? Alonso will end up the year close to his career average I am sure. Answer: one. Only Abreu.

Compared to the wet noodle bats currently on the FLOPS Alonso IS elite. Too bad we didn't sign him, eh?

If all the Flops bats were hitting their career numbers, we wouldn't need the poor numbers Alonso, Bichette and Bregman are giving their teams, this season.

I know this argument has flaws, but it also has some merit.

It's a shot in the dark on big bat signings, and some of these guys from last winter's FA group were hardly "elite" bats.

[JoeBrady]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

HR puts runs on the board in the moment.

All offensive stats add to your offense.  HRs look pretty, but Story has more than twice the number of HR/AB than Tony Gwynn,

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If all the Flops bats were hitting their career numbers, we wouldn't need the poor numbers Alonso, Bichette and Bregman are giving their teams, this season.

I know this argument has flaws, but it also has some merit.

It's a shot in the dark on big bat signings, and some of these guys from last winter's FA group were hardly "elite" bats.

A lot of fans, particularly RS fans, want the shiniest, and usually the oldest, toy they see in the window.  Then complain about the contract two years later.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If all the Flops bats were hitting their career numbers, we wouldn't need the poor numbers Alonso, Bichette and Bregman are giving their teams, this season.

I know this argument has flaws, but it also has some merit.

It's a shot in the dark on big bat signings, and some of these guys from last winter's FA group were hardly "elite" bats.

If, if if. Well the flops bats aren’t hitting their career numbers, and that’s why the Red Sox are 25th in runs scored, which is a Big reason they are 5 games under 500, and have been worse than that most of the time.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

All offensive stats add to your offense.  HRs look pretty, but Story has more than twice the number of HR/AB than Tony Gwynn,

I don’t think comparing Alonso to the Con Man is the same as comparing Story to Gwynn.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Pete Alonso is not an elite hitter.  Not even with ridiculous definitions like this.  
 

Especially since his career mark, which Alonso is not on pace for, is only .015 ahead of what Contreras is actually hitting. At best he’s a lateral move.  But not yet.  Not until he actually starts hitting…

Yes, and to use career OPS for 32+ olds is not something I would think projects who they will be.

Bregman has never put up numbers close to those two good years long ago. Maybe for a couple half years.

Alonso did. Schwarber did. Bichette never really did. Tucker & Bellinger play the OF.

Contreras is doing about as good or better as any of these guys.

We needed a second big bat as almost everyone here agreed upon, and we whiffed.

If we whiffed on Bregman, Bichette and a few others, I'm glad.

Alonso/Schwarber and Contreras would have meant one DHs and an OF'er + Yoshida sit.

A 2B/3Bman was the right fit, but very few of the available 2B/3Bman have done well (Murakami, Okamoto and trade guys like BLowe and Donovan.) It seems like those 4 were not widely suggested, so to me, we were asking for a miracle choice and are complaining Brez wasn't a fortune teller.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

All offensive stats add to your offense.  HRs look pretty, but Story has more than twice the number of HR/AB than Tony Gwynn,

And if career numbers are what should drive our choices, then where's the Story love gone?

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

A lot of fans, particularly RS fans, want the shiniest, and usually the oldest, toy they see in the window.  Then complain about the contract two years later.

Agreed, and a few realized that older FAs rarely come close to expectations and wanted Bichette. Maybe one or two were high on Okamoto or Murakami- the youngest ones.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

And if career numbers are what should drive our choices, then where's the Story love gone?

To the wayside of what have you done for me lately.🤭

[FredLynn]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If all the Flops bats were hitting their career numbers, we wouldn't need the poor numbers Alonso, Bichette and Bregman are giving their teams, this season.

I know this argument has flaws, but it also has some merit.

It's a shot in the dark on big bat signings, and some of these guys from last winter's FA group were hardly "elite" bats.

I would be willing to bet that at least two of those three by the end of the year would be within 10 points of their career averages in OPS

[notin]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Contreras is a good player and is making a positive contribution to the team. However Alonso is a more potent offensive weapon. He is having so far an off year for him but I expect he will end up somewhere near his career OPS. I prefer OPS+ as the single best metric to evaluate a player's offense; couldn't find it with a quick search. Henry was too cheap to sign Alonso and as usual he lost the bidding war.

OPS+ is on the first offensive table for a player on baseball-reference.com

[FredLynn]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and to use career OPS for 32+ olds is not something I would think projects who they will be.

Bregman has never put up numbers close to those two good years long ago. Maybe for a couple half years.

Alonso did. Schwarber did. Bichette never really did. Tucker & Bellinger play the OF.

Contreras is doing about as good or better as any of these guys.

We needed a second big bat as almost everyone here agreed upon, and we whiffed.

If we whiffed on Bregman, Bichette and a few others, I'm glad.

Alonso/Schwarber and Contreras would have meant one DHs and an OF'er + Yoshida sit.

A 2B/3Bman was the right fit, but very few of the available 2B/3Bman have done well (Murakami, Okamoto and trade guys like BLowe and Donovan.) It seems like those 4 were not widely suggested, so to me, we were asking for a miracle choice and are complaining Brez wasn't a fortune teller.

No, you get rid of Yoshida. By the end of the year he’ll have reverted to what he is: a ground ball out machine.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I would be willing to bet that at least two of those three by the end of the year would be within 10 points of their career averages in OPS

But you won't bet the current Sox will get closer to their career OPS, too, right?

[FredLynn]

38 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

A lot of fans, particularly RS fans, want the shiniest, and usually the oldest, toy they see in the window.  Then complain about the contract two years later.

Occasionally obtaining a few shiny toys would at least give the semblance that ownership is TRYING to compete. Right now there’s no such evidence: IKF? Durbin? Give me a break!

[FredLynn]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

But you won't bet the current Sox will get closer to their career OPS, too, right?

I didn’t say that. I think the current players will likely come closer to their historical averages too. But it won’t be enough.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

OPS+ is on the first offensive table for a player on baseball-reference.com

OPS+ from 2023-2026.  Big enough sample to matter, but not so large that numbers players put up at age 22 are treated equal to last year.

Contreras 129

Alonso 129

Bregman 120

Bichette 109

Yoshida 109

Bichette is far and away the youngest player on his list, but his hitting this year a very unhealthy .571 OPS.  That’s Durbin Country, folks.  Even without this year, Bichette is far from an elite hitter and barely a good ballplayer.  And possibly not even an upgrade over Yoshida.  Well, at least he costs twice as much.
 

But again, why are Bregman and Alonso elite hitters but not Contreras?

 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

OPS+ is on the first offensive table for a player on baseball-reference.com

Career OPS+/ Last 3 years OPS+(23-25) /2025-2026 OPS+

134/129/139 Alonso

131/122/123 Bregman

127/135/148 Schwarber (The oldest guy on this list)

124/120/127 Wilyer Abreu

120/114/116 Bichette (Youngest on list)

119/127/127 Contreras (The second oldest on list)

Throw the age curve out on these results. The two players who have done better than their career are the oldest. The worst is the youngest!

If you look at the two more recent numbers:

Abreu & Contreras> Bregman & Bichette

Improvement over career:

+21 Schwarber

+10 Contreras

+5 Alonso

+3 Abreu

-4 Bichette

-8 Bregman

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Career OPS+/ Last 3 years OPS+(23-25) /2025-2026 OPS+

134/129/139 Alonso

131/122/123 Bregman

127/135/148 Schwarber (The oldest guy on this list)

124/120/127 Wilyer Abreu

120/114/116 Bichette (Youngest on list)

119/127/127 Contreras (The second oldest on list)

Throw the age curve out on these results. The two players who have done better than their career are the oldest. The worst is the youngest!

You’re two minutes late!

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Career OPS+/ Last 3 years OPS+(23-25) /2025-2026 OPS+

134/129/139 Alonso

131/122/123 Bregman

127/135/148 Schwarber (The oldest guy on this list)

124/120/127 Wilyer Abreu

120/114/116 Bichette (Youngest on list)

119/127/127 Contreras (The second oldest on list)

Throw the age curve out on these results. The two players who have done better than their career are the oldest. The worst is the youngest!

I would have been OK with signing both Alonso (or Schwarber or Bregman) AND Contreras and jettisoning Masa. His signing was a mistake. Time to cut the cord.

Its not a case of Alonso/Schwarber OR Contreras. All were available. Instead we got Gaspar, IKF, and the stiff Durbin.