Red Sox acquire Wilson Contreras From Cardinals

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Well the term "haul" is subjective I was talking in the aggregate of their outfield talent obviously the return is going to vary by player.  

I wouldn't under estimate how much teams might be willing to pay for Rafaela or Duran, I read that report to and that was a long time ago.  There's been a lot of silence on this front but that doesn't mean conversations haven't been happening behind the scenes. 

If they make a move, which I'd say is 60-70% likely they trade a starting outfielder.  It's going to be very interesting to see what they get in return or what was available. 

They aren't getting a #2 for Duran. Could they get a prospect haul? Maybe. In fact, that could be the best thing for the org. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t know about a haul for any of the OF. Abreu has been a platoon, and I think Duran’s value was higher last year at this time.

I don't disagree his value was higher last year, but most of that is due to the fact he had one whole extra year of team control. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't getting a #2 for Duran. Could they get a prospect haul? Maybe. In fact, that could be the best thing for the org. 

a #2? who said anything about a #2?

I'd say the infield is much more of a concern right now but yes a prospect haul might make the most sense.  For various reasons. 

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Geeze, you say one word and people freak out.  Haul is subjective; what is a haul? a top 25 prospect? 2 top 50 prosects? 3 top 100 prospects? or is it amorphous and vary in comparision to the value of the player being traded????  Regardless of how YOU want to define it my position is the Sox can get good value back in return for their outfielders.  Trade prices are high, teams are in need of offense, and they have young cost controlled assets. 

Being PART of a package yes.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Being PART of a package yes.

What do you mean? If I could guess are we talking about trading for an ACE? if so I'd agree.  Duran alone doesn't get you one but Duran/Tolle/Arias gets a team listening. 

[Hugh2]

According to BTV, which is a very imperfect source of information. 

Duran, Rafaela, and Abrue are the Sox 4th, 5th, and 7th most valuable trade chips. 

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

a #2? who said anything about a #2?

I'd say the infield is much more of a concern right now but yes a prospect haul might make the most sense.  For various reasons. 

Duran was initially tied to the return for Joe Ryan. THAT #2. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran was initially tied to the return for Joe Ryan. THAT #2. 

Ok but that was a long time ago, I figured we were just talking about trading A outfielder overall.  I wasn't specifically saying for Joe Ryan or even a pitcher. 

BTV Accepts Jarren Duran for Jackson Ferris, Emil Morales, Mike Sirota with the dodgers.  

THat's baseballs 100th, 98th, and 64th ranked prospect in baseball according to pipeline.  3 top 100 guys.

I'm in no way shape or form suggesting we make that trade, or that either side would accept, but rather researching the approximate value Duran would receive in a trade.  He certainly is going to get you 1-2 top 100 prospects plus. 

Those prospects could be used to replenish the system, or they could be used as part of a larger trade for a starting 2B (Marte?) or packaged up with other assets for a #1 pitcher to pair with Crochet.  Or saved to used as assets at the deadline. 

And again, I'll reiterate that it does not have to be Duran, but it's more likley than not the Sox do trade an outfielder.  I'd say the liklihood of outfielders being traded rank as follows. 

Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Cambell/Yoshida/Anthony

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't disagree his value was higher last year, but most of that is due to the fact he had one whole extra year of team control. 

And he made less money…

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

soxprospects.com said that STL was considering playing Contreras at catcher some in 2027.

That would be dumb., for a couple reasons

1) While it should be a fixable problem, Contreras habitually crouches too close to hitters.  While this leads to too many catcher interference calls, the real issue is safety.  A couple seasons ago, this poor habit lead to Contreras’ left arm being struck by the swing of JD Martínez, resulting in a broken arm.

2) Last year, St. Louis carried 3 catchers for the bulk of the season (Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages, Yohel Pozo), all of whom were better defensively than Contreras. They did use Herrera at DH a lot, but they would be better off simply getting a better DH and letting Herrera get back behind the plate more often.  Why Contreras was not a candidate for DH is another level of mystery here…

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

And he made less money…

Yes, he made about 3 million more, for a 4 WAR+ player that's a fraction of the value lost by one whole year of team control.   Well, if $7.5-8,0 Million gets you one WAR then we're talking about 9% of the total depreciation of his value

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok but that was a long time ago

That was last July. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't getting a #2 for Duran. Could they get a prospect haul? Maybe. In fact, that could be the best thing for the org. 

A #2 makes no sense for Duran from the opposing team’s viewpoint.  Hetting Duran is about hetting more competitive now.  Teams don’t get more competitive now by dealing their top starting pitchers.

It only works if it’s someone like Freddy Peralta that has one season left before free agency and whose talent is going to price him out of his current team’s budget.  But do you deal Duran for one season of a pitcher?

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, he made about 3 million more, for a 4 WAR+ player that's a fraction of the value lost by one whole year of team control.   Well, if $7.5-8,0 Million gets you one WAR then we're talking about 9% of the total depreciation of his value

You’re thinking large market.  
 

That 9% can be a big deal to a team like Milwaukee or Cleveland….

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

But do you deal Duran for one season of a pitcher?

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That was last July. 

which mine as well be a long time ago.  That was the deadline, this is 6 months later with different players, control, and needs involved and I had never brought up the name Joe Ryan. 

Clearly Joe Ryan is A GUY you could trade for along with thousands of other mlb players. 

It's just the way you said it made it sound like I've been beating the trade Duran for Joe Ryan drums.  I have not been. 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

You’re thinking large market.  
 

That 9% can be a big deal to a team like Milwaukee or Cleveland….

9% is still 9%. 

I'm not writting a whole book, theres' nothing outrageous about saying the drop in Durans value to this year is mostly tied into having one less year of team control.  

9% 9%? wouldn't teams trading for MORE years like Milwaukee or Cleveland get to those pay raises anyways!!!!!

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

and I had never brought up the name Joe Ryan. 

Do you think I have an Excel spreadsheet for everyone's takes on here? Be reasonable. 

Duran was brought up in trade discussions concerning Joe Ryan at the deadline. Ryan was discussed after the season ON HERE and Duran's name was included. 

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

9% is still 9%. 

I'm not writting a whole book, theres' nothing outrageous about saying the drop in Durans value to this year is mostly tied into having one less year of team control.  

9% 9%? wouldn't teams trading for MORE years like Milwaukee or Cleveland get to those pay raises anyways!!!!!

But they also get more time to move him again if they fear he gets too pricey.

Trade values are heavily influenced by two factors - years of control (and accompanying performance) and money owed to the player.  One cheaper year can be worth a lot to a small market team.

I never said you were wrong about less control.  You were not.  But money is also a factor.  If you doubt me, pay attention to arbitration hearings where teams and players go to battle over differences under $500,000 sometimes…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Do you think I have an Excel spreadsheet for everyone's takes on here?

You don’t?

Want a copy of mine?

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

But they also get more time to move him again if they fear he gets too pricey.

Trade values are heavily influenced by two factors - years of control (and accompanying performance) and money owed to the player.  One cheaper year can be worth a lot to a small market team.

I never said you were wrong about less control.  You were not.  But money is also a factor.  If you doubt me, pay attention to arbitration hearings where teams and players go to battle over differences under $500,000 sometimes…

Ok, but in the sake of brevity if the factor of something is by far and large A and not B I'm going to say A. 

You said I'm thinking like a big market team well I'd say you're thinking more about guys under contract.  the difference between 1-3-7 million is miniscule compared to a guy making 15-25 million. 

I'm not trying to discount it, but I just don't see his salary from last year to this year being a very large factor at all in his value.  Like a said....about maybe 10% of his value has decreased this year because a team will have to pay an extra 3-4 million for him. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

You don’t?

Want a copy of mine?

As a former external auditor, I don't trust anyone else's spreadsheets.

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Do you think I have an Excel spreadsheet for everyone's takes on here? Be reasonable. 

Duran was brought up in trade discussions concerning Joe Ryan at the deadline. Ryan was discussed after the season ON HERE and Duran's name was included. 

Ok but I wasn't bringin up Joe Ryan or a #2 here, you are the one who responded with "you're not getting a #2 for Jarren Duran" It just kind of felt like you were suggesting that I was specifically saying we would get him for that.  That's how it sounded. 

I'm just saying overall, that Duran is a likely trade candidate and that he has value. 

 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok, but in the sake of brevity if the factor of something is by far and large A and not B I'm going to say A. 

You said I'm thinking like a big market team well I'd say you're thinking more about guys under contract.  the difference between 1-3-7 million is miniscule compared to a guy making 15-25 million. 

I'm not trying to discount it, but I just don't see his salary from last year to this year being a very large factor at all in his value.  Like a said....about maybe 10% of his value has decreased this year because a team will have to pay an extra 3-4 million for him. 

Good lord, you’re stubborn.  The right answer here was “yes, money is a factor, too.”  No one said they were equal factors.  
 

Not that difficult…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok but I wasn't bringin up Joe Ryan or a #2 here, you are the one who responded with "you're not getting a #2 for Jarren Duran" It just kind of felt like you were suggesting that I was specifically saying we would get him for that.  That's how it sounded. 

I'm just saying overall, that Duran is a likely trade candidate and that he has value. 

 

Can we agree on this:

1) Duran is a viable trade candidate

2) Duran is very unlikely to be dealt directly for a #2 starter, but he can be dealt in a 3 team deal that nets one, or for a prospect haul that can be flipped for one…

[moonslav59]

I think most teams would want Rafaela over Duran, due to his low salary, especially in the front end, and 6 years of control to 3 for Duran. He plays way better defense and at a tougher position. He might improve on offense, where Duran might decline in the next 3 years.

Rafaela vs Abreu is a tougher call. Abreu plays great defense at an equally challenging OF position and has the power this team cannot afford to part with. Abreu has one pre-arb year left and 3 arbs to follow. He may end up being cheaper than Ceddanne over the next 4 years, and CR has a back-loaded contract, so many poorer teams would likely trade him after 3-4 years. Rafaela makes $10.5M in '30 and then $13M in '31 with a $16M option w $4M buyout. That does not seem like an overpay, but many teams would trade him at that price.

The presence of K Campbell and even Yoshida as a short/corner OF'er option makes trading an OF'er a must, to me, this winter. There are arguments to keep one over the other, but one should be traded. To me, they all look pretty close to even, when you factor pay, years of control, defense, offense, power and speed, so I'd trade the one who brings back the better return.

Unless we get a big bat upgrade at 2B/3B, I'd hesitate to trade Duran or Abreu, so to me, this context is what decides who I'd want to trade. If we get a big bat, I'd lean towards trading Duran. If we don't, it's clearly Rafaela, IMO.

I'm far from giving up on K Campbell, and I think we can "hide him" in LF, if his defense sucks. I have little doubt that his hit tool is a plus. I know many here cringe at the idea of Masa in LF, and I don't like the idea either, but I think Brez & Co are not afraid to play him there. If Casas comes back to form, we could easily platoon Campbell and Masa in LF and DH Casas, if there was a major OF injury. These are risks worth taking to fill that 2B/3B need.

Counting on signing Bregman or Bichette long term is not likely.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Can we agree on this:

1) Duran is a viable trade candidate

2) Duran is very unlikely to be dealt directly for a #2 starter, but he can be dealt in a 3 team deal that nets one, or for a prospect haul that can be flipped for one…

1. Agree.

2. Duran for Lodolo makes sense to both teams, but Duran for Ryan does not to MN. Duran to HOU for Paredes and a LH'd RP'er might work, too.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

1. Agree.

2. Duran for Lodolo makes sense to both teams, but Duran for Ryan does not to MN. Duran to HOU for Paredes and a LH'd RP'er might work, too.

I think Duran for Lodolo makes more sense than Duran (plus) for Greene for Cincinnati, but that doesn’t mean it’s a sensible trade for them.  But what really makes sense for the Reds is trading Brady Singer for an OF, and Duran makes no sense here for Boston..

I suppose even if Duran for Lodolo isnt optimal for the Reds, it’s probably the closest thing to a “Duran for a #2” starter trade that works for both sides…

[FredLynn]

Contreras will help the team, but the need for a good bat persists, along with the need for a #2 SP. I don't see us getting either need met. Furthermore, we haven't signed a 3B man yet. Bregman wants six years? Say what?

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

I think Duran for Lodolo makes more sense than Duran (plus) for Greene for Cincinnati, but that doesn’t mean it’s a sensible trade for them.  But what really makes sense for the Reds is trading Brady Singer for an OF, and Duran makes no sense here for Boston..

I suppose even if Duran for Lodolo isnt optimal for the Reds, it’s probably the closest thing to a “Duran for a #2” starter trade that works for both sides…

I think Duran for Lodolo makes total sense for both teams. Sure, trading Singer works better for CIN, but they need a high quality bat and OF'er and Singer will not get that for them.

I think Duran is worth more than Lodolo. It only makes sense to BOS, because we have an OG logjam and need a quality SP'er.

I'd prefer trading Duran for a big bat 3Bman/2Bman, because I doubt we spend large and long on one, and I'm not high on Breggie or Bichette as "the guy" we break the mold on.

I'm not sure how much HOU like Duran (or Rafaela/Abreu) but getting Paredes and a LH'd RP'er might be the best we can do.