Sox to acquire Sonny Gray

[Jasonbay44]

 

[moonslav59]

Wow, this is actually one guy I mentioned as a possible trade target!

I know: blind squirrel on a broken clock.

[notin]

I did not have this on my Bingo card.

Well, I did back in like 2023…

[moonslav59]

I hope STL took Hicks to balance the money a little, but maybe some cash is involved.

Can't wait to hear the return package.

Does this mean no Ryan?

[Jasonbay44]

I’m not sure how to feel about this. He’s 36, struggled in AL East before with Yankees and wasn’t exactly great last season.

 

he is however durable and eats inning. 

[Hitch]

This, I absolutely did not see coming. 

[mvp 78]

Makes sense. He doesn't walk anybody. Has a big time sweeper and curve.

[moonslav59]

Gray is 36 years old. He has very nice 3 year numbers but dipped in 2025.

96 ERA+ (50th in ERA- at 105, out of 70 pitchers w 150+ IP)

His 3.39 FIP was still pretty nice. (12th)

In 2026, only 18 pitchers had more IP (180)

70 pitchers had 150+ IP and Gray placed:

7th in xFIP at 3.07

7th in K-BB% at 21.6%

He's owed $35M in '26 and $30M in '27 with a $5M buyout, so essentially:

$40M/1 or $65M/2

[mvp 78]

Deal reworked to be one year plus mutual option (31M plus 10M buyout). 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Deal reworked to be one year plus mutual option (31M plus 10M buyout). 

 

 

Yeah.... not the #2 I was expecting... 😐

[Hitch]

Hopefully a lot of cash....

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I’m not sure how to feel about this. He’s 36, struggled in AL East before with Yankees and wasn’t exactly great last season.

 

he is however durable and eats inning. 

180 IP, 10.01 k/9, 1.89 bb/9, 4.28 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 3.6 fWAR

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hitch said:

 

Fitts is a back end guy and didn't really grow in '25. Clarke barely pitched in '25 and was overrated IMO. 

Deal is fine with me. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

 

I don’t like that return at all for Gray.

A BA top 100 prospect plus for a 36yo pitcher making over $30mill?

[Jasonbay44]

For that package, I’m fine with the trade. He basically is replacing Giolito. 
 

I do hope they make a move for another SP still. 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fitts is a back end guy and didn't really grow in '25. Clarke barely pitched in '25 and was overrated IMO. 

Deal is fine with me. 

I have little problem with what we've sent, but if this is the upgrade to our rotation, and true #2 Breslow wanted, I will feel a little disappointed. 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t like that return at all for Gray.

A BA top 100 prospect plus for a 36yo pitcher making over $30mill?

I think what this indicates, is that we have little to no interest in sending Early and Tolle anywhere.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Deal reworked to be one year plus mutual option (31M plus 10M buyout). 

Interesting.

Is the second year still at $30M? If so, it's essentially $61M/2 or $41M/1

It was $75M/2 or $40M/1. Why would Gray agree to this?

[moonslav59]

I'm fine with Fitts, but Clarke is a lot to give. Had we included Hicks, I'd be okay. This seems liek too much.

I'd still like to get Ryan or Lodolo, too, but we need two bats, so this it probably it for rotation building.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I think what this indicates, is that we have little to no interest in sending Early and Tolle anywhere.

The only way they'd do that would be for Skubal or similar. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

I think what this indicates, is that we have little to no interest in sending Early and Tolle anywhere.

Probably a good thing.

We also are better positioned to make a second trade, as we still have Duran.

Duran plus _____ for K Marte?

Then spend big on Alonso.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only way they'd do that would be for Skubal or similar. 

I would have given one up for Ryan, especially if there was an extension after. They both have great upside, but that's all it is right now. Ryan is already there. 

Either way, I'd say the rotation is done now.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Probably a good thing.

We also are better positioned to make a second trade, as we still have Duran.

Duran plus _____ for K Marte?

Then spend big on Alonso.

That's a lot of money hitting the bill, but I'm all for the next two moves if they pull them off. Still some bullpen work to do, too.

I like that Breslow isn't waiting around at least.

[mvp 78]

Clarke only pitched 4+ IP 3 times last season. Lots of reliever risk there. Numbers were great in SAL and took a big step back in GRE for various reasons. 

[Hitch]

 

Woah!! Okay that's pretty good!

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hitch said:

I would have given one up for Ryan, especially if there was an extension after. They both have great upside, but that's all it is right now. Ryan is already there. 

Either way, I'd say how rotation is done now.

The only way I see adding another SP'er is if we include Crawford, Dobbins or Harrison in that deal.

We did lessen the SP'er depth to improve our ML quality level for the rotation, but the 40 man still has the same number of SP'ers.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hitch said:

 

Woah!! Okay that's pretty good!

That $20M makes the move fine with me. Now, we can still afford others on our wish lists.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That $20M makes the move fine with me. Now, we can still afford others on our wish lists.

Yeah that changes a lot. I was thinking we'd get like $5m

[mvp 78]

Steamer FIP/WAR projections:

Gray 3.36/4.0
Cease 3.59/3.8
Valdez 3.47/3.7
Suarez 3.62/3.3

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Steamer FIP/WAR projections:

Gray 3.36/4.0
Cease 3.59/3.8
Valdez 3.47/3.7
Suarez 3.62/3.3

Are these projections with ballpark specifics in mind?