Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course we are not "small market." It was a jab at you know who.

Again, the wallet is not empty. We spent more than over 2/3rds of the teams and maybe 3/4 this winter and maybe even since the Devers extension.

We signed our first long term deal in a while. We extended 4 kids to long term deals in the last 2 years. We extended Deves and crochet to big deals. While the Buehler deal was yet another one and done deal, it was for $21M - the 3rd highest pitcher AAV in Sox history. 2 year deals to Gio, Sandoval and Chapman.

We've swung a missed on a few, but we are swinging and spending.

Yes, I agree we could and should spend more. I agree the revenue vs spending ranking is troubling and telling, but the wallet is not "empty," unless you mean right now, after spending so much.

It has been empty for a while and it has prevented the Sox from being truly competitive or lowering their ceiling. Even dumping Devers last year changed the outlook on last season. Will this year be different? It's hard to say. They are spending money, but they are constantly getting outbid for the players they are known to be bidding for. If you are always readjusting to Plan C, D and E, it's easy to see why people can remain skeptical. 

Also, YOU have been a person that has continued to call this a "mid market" team. They are not. They are a large market team. They bring in a TON of revenue. They could compete with any other team in MLB if they wanted to. Where they spend in relation to other teams is a choice! 

Saying "the wallet is empty after spending so much" is rather foolish since we all know that they are still making much more off of this team than they are spending on payroll. The wallet is empty because they have often not wanted to pick up the check when the tab is due. 

[FredLynn]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

OMG!

That was my mocking point! 

BTW, name even one mid market team that spend like we have in the last 2 years.

Cue sound of cricketts.

I was being a bit sarcastic. No, we don't spend like a small market team, but as a percentage of revenue we do. We agree that more should be spent, for whatever that is worth.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It has been empty for a while and it has prevented the Sox from being truly competitive or lowering their ceiling. Even dumping Devers last year changed the outlook on last season. Will this year be different? It's hard to say. They are spending money, but they are constantly getting outbid for the players they are known to be bidding for. If you are always readjusting to Plan C, D and E, it's easy to see why people can remain skeptical. 

Also, YOU have been a person that has continued to call this a "mid market" team. They are not. They are a large market team. They bring in a TON of revenue. They could compete with any other team in MLB if they wanted to. Where they spend in relation to other teams is a choice! 

Saying "the wallet is empty after spending so much" is rather foolish since we all know that they are still making much more off of this team than they are spending on payroll. The wallet is empty because they have often not wanted to pick up the check when the tab is due. 

Okay, I'm going to just assume your and Fred's use of the term "empty" is hyperbole.

I never said we were a "mid market team." Never.

Our market is top 10.

Our revenue it top 10.

Our spending was sickenly low for too many years, but it has not been for 2 years. Of course, much of the spending is replacing lost contracts but the spending has been increasing significantly and many trends that we've all bitched about for years have changed. 

Of course I want more spending and the reasons given make sense, including the point about revenue vs spending ranking, but why say our spending is empty or that we spend like a small market team? It's just not true. Worse, the untruths keep being repeated.

We are not spending like a small market team. For a while we spent like one- or spent like a midmarket team, but we are not small or mid market.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I was being a bit sarcastic. No, we don't spend like a small market team, but as a percentage of revenue we do. We agree that more should be spent, for whatever that is worth.

I'm not sure the revenue vs spending thing is the only measure than counts, and I agree it is important and telling, but my guess is we are above #20 now, even on your chosen, one and only number that counts.

Look, I wanted Alosno. The offer was a joke. It was sick.

We did end up signing Suarez who might and should do more for the team. Small and mid market teams dont do that. They also dont trade for 2 guys making $20M each. They don't sign utility guys to $6M. They rarely extend 4 young stars to many year deals.

Spotrac has us 7th- just $3M for the Padres. We are maybe 20th in revenue to spending. That sucks, but that doesn't mean we aren't spending or that JH is a liar.

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure the revenue vs spending thing is the only measure than counts, and I agree it is important and telling, but my guess is we are above #20 now, even on your chosen, one and only number that counts.

Look, I wanted Alosno. The offer was a joke. It was sick.

We did end up signing Suarez who might and should do more for the team. Small and mid market teams dont do that. They also dont trade for 2 guys making $20M each. They don't sign utility guys to $6M. They rarely extend 4 young stars to many year deals.

Spotrac has us 7th- just $3M for the Padres. We are maybe 20th in revenue to spending. That sucks, but that doesn't mean we aren't spending or that JH is a liar.

I think Henry is dishonest. If you say you are committed to winning but fail to try your best to make that happen and you have the resources to do it, then you are being dishonest.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I think Henry is dishonest. If you say you are committed to winning but fail to try your best to make that happen and you have the resources to do it, then you are being dishonest.

You've said this many times, but you assume you know that JH shares the same definition of the word "winning" as you do. he would have to for it to be a lie.

A lie is saying something you know to be false.

1. He may believe we built teams good enough to win, even by your definition.

2. He may think winning means 82-80 or going into a season with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.

Then, it's not a lie.

Yes, he "has the resources," as many owners do, even some with lesser revenue streams, so using that point does not do anything for me. The lowest revenue team's owner could easily double his spending in one year and maybe 3X or 4X and on and on... They choose not to.

Yes, they may not be telling the fans"We are committed to winning," and that is a difference, but JH is spending huge amounts of money. He's spending more than 75% of the teams and all I hear is "cheap" and "empty."

If it's all hyperbole, I'll shut up and take it the way it was meant, but when I call it out, you guys often double down. We both agree we should spend more, yes, yes, YES! We both think he could and should and wish he would spend more, but he ID spending more- just not enough for most of us.

I've seen a shift, of late, and I have no issue hearing "too late" or even "too little- too late." I expected bigger moves after losing Devers and hearing talk about the need for a big bat. I've never hears anyone from the Sox say they felt Contreras met that criteria, so at least they didn't try to pull that one over on us.

We failed to get that big bat. We are used to seeing Sox ring teams with 2 big bats.

We failed to get a top 2B/3Bman and settled on Durbin & I K-F, instead. I'm not happy with the choice, but I do think we got better from 2025 by a little more than you seem to think.

We are 7th in spending and 7th in projected team fWAR. How's that for a criteria?

If we were 5th in spending, we'd probably be a top 4 contender, because 5th place is $40M away! (Alonso away)

There are various ways to build a winning team, and this is not like any WS-winning or attending Sox team I have seen. I've never seen pitching like this. Top 3 SP'ers, SP depth, top 3 RP'ers. The defense might be close to the best I've ever seen a Sox team have on the roster. It's not sure who will play and where, but we can likely put the best defensive team I have ever seen a Sox team have on the field and still have a GG'er as depth.

The offense is a huge concern but not without promise.

[Kimmi]

18 hours ago, Old Red said:

IKF is a good glove backup especially if Story goes down, or Mayer for that matter.

100%.  IKF is a very good utility player and his ability to play multiple positions well gives him value.  I like both this signing and the Rodgers signing.

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I think we are marginally better this year, maybe by 2-3 games in the W column. I also think Mayer can do much better and that there’s a chance that Casas could also contribute. But there was more money that could have been spent to make the team a solid contender for a ring, and I know you feel the same way.

You don't think the team can contend for a ring?  Pitching and defense will be our strength.

By Pythagorean W-L, we were a 92 win team last year.  Even if we are only marginally better, that puts us at about 95 wins.

[Kimmi]

17 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

A BP arm, and maybe finding a trade partner with an overpaid RH DH.  I'm still trying to find a way to get O'Neill back in exchange for Yoshida.  Maybe attach enough of a minor prospect to entice trading their problem for our problem.

I am not as bothered by Yoshida still being on our team as most people seem to be, but I understand your point.  

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

2. He may think winning means 82-80 or going into a season with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.

John Henry does not believe this. He believes that every season not making the playoffs is a failure. This is why he pushed Bloom to make moves at every deadline and fired him for not being able to do so. He buys into the idea of a self sustaining contender and was willing to take a step back, but wanted to try to compete while doing so. He wasn't happy with the 78-84 win seasons. If he was, he would have just kept Bloom! 

He wants to be a playoff contender while spending closer to the Cardinals/Cubs/Giants than Dodgers/Yankees/Mets. 

[drewski6]

USA Today are projecting 84 wins and a fourth place finish in ALE, tied for 7th in AL (with Astros, also behind Detroit and Rangers). That came out today and includes Durbin (ouch). 

Fangraphs is projecting 84.5 wins and third place in ALE and 5th in AL.  (They are consistent with USA today on Red Sox, but lower on O's , Astros and Rangers). 

MLB.COM power rankings put us 4th in AL but without standings or record. They are the only source that have us over the Tigers of the three.

Personally, I think MLB.COM power rankings are closest.  I think that we only trail NYY, Toronto, Mariners but we are a significant step behind them at present.  I think we are a small step in front of the AL playoff hopefuls (Orioles, Astros, Rangers, Detroit, Cleveland).

I think we are over a coin flip to make the playoffs, and that can improve with any of the three a) better injury luck that the other 7 decent-or-better teams in AL b) in-season acquisitions (e.g. big bat at deadline), c) internal breakouts (like Mayer taking a big step).

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

John Henry does not believe this. He believes that every season not making the playoffs is a failure. This is why he pushed Bloom to make moves at every deadline and fired him for not being able to do so. He buys into the idea of a self sustaining contender and was willing to take a step back, but wanted to try to compete while doing so. He wasn't happy with the 78-84 win seasons. If he was, he would have just kept Bloom! 

He wants to be a playoff contender while spending closer to the Cardinals/Cubs/Giants than Dodgers/Yankees/Mets. 

Sounds right, but could number 1 be true?

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

USA Today are projecting 84 wins and a fourth place finish in ALE, tied for 7th in AL (with Astros, also behind Detroit and Rangers). That came out today and includes Durbin (ouch). 

Fangraphs is projecting 84.5 wins and third place in ALE and 5th in AL.  (They are consistent with USA today on Red Sox, but lower on O's , Astros and Rangers). 

MLB.COM power rangers put us 4th in AL but without standings or record. They are the only source that have us over the Tigers of the three.

Personally, I think MLB.COM power rankings are closest.  I think that we only trail NYY, Toronto, Mariners but we are a significant step behind them at present.  I think we are a small step in front of the AL playoff hopefuls (Orioles, Astros, Rangers, Detroit, Cleveland).

I think we are over a coin flip to make the playoffs, and that can improve with any of the three a) better injury luck that the other 7 decent-or-better teams in AL b) in-season acquisitions (e.g. big bat at deadline), c) internal breakouts (like Mayer taking a big step).

I think we'll be better than 85 wins, but I know I am biased.

We lost a lot of our best hitters. We improved pitching and defense. With so many changes, it's hard to figure wins gained or lost.

[FredLynn]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You've said this many times, but you assume you know that JH shares the same definition of the word "winning" as you do. he would have to for it to be a lie.

A lie is saying something you know to be false.

1. He may believe we built teams good enough to win, even by your definition.

2. He may think winning means 82-80 or going into a season with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.

Then, it's not a lie.

Yes, he "has the resources," as many owners do, even some with lesser revenue streams, so using that point does not do anything for me. The lowest revenue team's owner could easily double his spending in one year and maybe 3X or 4X and on and on... They choose not to.

Yes, they may not be telling the fans"We are committed to winning," and that is a difference, but JH is spending huge amounts of money. He's spending more than 75% of the teams and all I hear is "cheap" and "empty."

If it's all hyperbole, I'll shut up and take it the way it was meant, but when I call it out, you guys often double down. We both agree we should spend more, yes, yes, YES! We both think he could and should and wish he would spend more, but he ID spending more- just not enough for most of us.

I've seen a shift, of late, and I have no issue hearing "too late" or even "too little- too late." I expected bigger moves after losing Devers and hearing talk about the need for a big bat. I've never hears anyone from the Sox say they felt Contreras met that criteria, so at least they didn't try to pull that one over on us.

We failed to get that big bat. We are used to seeing Sox ring teams with 2 big bats.

We failed to get a top 2B/3Bman and settled on Durbin & I K-F, instead. I'm not happy with the choice, but I do think we got better from 2025 by a little more than you seem to think.

We are 7th in spending and 7th in projected team fWAR. How's that for a criteria?

If we were 5th in spending, we'd probably be a top 4 contender, because 5th place is $40M away! (Alonso away)

There are various ways to build a winning team, and this is not like any WS-winning or attending Sox team I have seen. I've never seen pitching like this. Top 3 SP'ers, SP depth, top 3 RP'ers. The defense might be close to the best I've ever seen a Sox team have on the roster. It's not sure who will play and where, but we can likely put the best defensive team I have ever seen a Sox team have on the field and still have a GG'er as depth.

The offense is a huge concern but not without promise.

IMO FWar is somebody’s estimate of value. It represents POTENTIAL, not data. It’s not meaningless but I do take it with a grain of salt. I also think that WINNING means competing for a ring nearly every year, not last place or middle of the pack finishes. I don’t think you believe that we were “winning” when we were mediocre at best. Last year was an improvement but no one expected us to WIN a ring or really even compete for one. I doubt very much if Henry thinks that winning means third place finishes. Therefore imo he is being DISHONEST at best and certainly on the cheap side.

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we'll be better than 85 wins, but I know I am biased.

We lost a lot of our best hitters. We improved pitching and defense. With so many changes, it's hard to figure wins gained or lost.

86 wins is about right. And no playoffs. Again. NOT winning baseball. Breslow and Henry screwed up.

[FredLynn]

33 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

You don't think the team can contend for a ring?  Pitching and defense will be our strength.

By Pythagorean W-L, we were a 92 win team last year.  Even if we are only marginally better, that puts us at about 95 wins.

At the end of the day you have to be able to score runs. We had a problem with that towards the end of last year. We are far worse in that regard this year. I think 85-86 wins is about right. And again no playoffs.

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we'll be better than 85 wins, but I know I am biased.

We lost a lot of our best hitters. We improved pitching and defense. With so many changes, it's hard to figure wins gained or lost.

I think the Yankees and O's will certainly be considerably better than last year, so you have to factor that in.  In fact, USA today placing the Red Sox fourth stated the RS got better but not as much better as the Os who they expect to leapfrog us into third (but its close).  The Yankees have a lot of pitchers coming back from injury and return something like 6 30HR threats.  To me, we'll see how much the Jays miss Bichette.  It will come down to that, if the Tigers keep Skubal, how the Astros look.

I do think Harmony's M's and the Yanks are best teams in AL.  
 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

IMO FWar is somebody’s estimate of value. It represents POTENTIAL, not data. It’s not meaningless but I do take it with a grain of salt. I also think that WINNING means competing for a ring nearly every year, not last place or middle of the pack finishes. I don’t think you believe that we were “winning” when we were mediocre at best. Last year was an improvement but no one expected us to WIN a ring or really even compete for one. I doubt very much if Henry thinks that winning means third place finishes. Therefore imo he is being DISHONEST at best and certainly on the cheap side.

It's what he thinks that makes it dishonest. The key component is saying something you know is wrong...not what others know or think is wrong.

He may be deliberately lying. I think he may actually think many of those teams had a good chance.

I have said before that I think 2021 set the team back, because it convinced management they could compete while being cheap. It took a few years to sink in, and now they are spending more.

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

It's what he thinks that makes it dishonest. The key component is saying something you know is wrong...not what others know or think is wrong.

He may be deliberately lying. I think he may actually think many of those teams had a good chance.

I have said before that I think 2021 set the team back, because it convinced management they could compete while being cheap. It took a few years to sink in, and now they are spending more.

I think Henry gets too much blame, and Bloom and Breslow not enough (blame).

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think the Yankees and O's will certainly be considerably better than last year, so you have to factor that in.  In fact, USA today placing the Red Sox fourth stated the RS got better but not as much better as the Os who they expect to leapfrog us into third (but its close).  The Yankees have a lot of pitchers coming back from injury and return something like 6 30HR threats.  To me, we'll see how much the Jays miss Bichette.  It will come down to that, if the Tigers keep Skubal, how the Astros look.

I do think Harmony's M's and the Yanks are best teams in AL.  
 

I'm not buying the returning Yankee pitchers point. I've seen our hopes dashed enough to not count on that. Name the 3 potential 30 HR Yanks.

I'm not so sure BAL is as good as some think, but I do think they underperformed, last year and COULD bounce back.

I think TOR is #1 and NYY, SEA and BOS are closely bunched.

It's also not as bad having to play in the toughest division as years past. We don't play them as much.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think Henry gets too much blame, and Bloom and Breslow not enough (blame).

The severe budget restraints on Bloom were real, and he kept losing top players, year after year. Even when he lost players that were no longer great, the contract money was not returned to the budget.

Brez has been allowed to spend more, and it shows. Still, maybe restraints, like NTCs hampered his ability to spend like he wanted.

Some like to blame Cora, and we did win less that the Pythagorean estimated.

The blame game has been on full display for years.

Our GMs have made enough bad choices to be worthy of large chunks of blame- I agree.

 

 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not buying the returning Yankee pitchers point. I've seen our hopes dashed enough to not count on that. Name the 3 potential 30 HR Yanks.

I'm not so sure BAL is as good as some think, but I do think they underperformed, last year and COULD bounce back.

I think TOR is #1 and NYY, SEA and BOS are closely bunched.

It's also not as bad having to play in the toughest division as years past. We don't play them as much.

Judge, Jazz, Grisham hit 30+ last year, bellinger had 29 last year and has two 30 HR seasons in his past.  Stanton got hurt but still has 30 HR pop, in 1/2 season last year he dinged 24.  This doesnt include Ben Rice who is expected to have his first 30 HR season this year or Goldschmidt who isnt as washed as you think (but too washed to get to 30).

If you add up all the 30 (or more) homerun seasons that the yankees players have had in their past its like 27 total 30 HR seasons (but that does inlcude Goldy, which may be unfair).  No player in the red sox organization has ever had a 30 HR season.

[FredLynn]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's what he thinks that makes it dishonest. The key component is saying something you know is wrong...not what others know or think is wrong.

He may be deliberately lying. I think he may actually think many of those teams had a good chance.

I have said before that I think 2021 set the team back, because it convinced management they could compete while being cheap. It took a few years to sink in, and now they are spending more.

I think you’re giving him too much credit. I believe (and I admit I don’t know for sure) that he puts a higher priority on profit than winning and knows that the recent iterations of the Flops weren’t winners. 
That makes him dishonest. How about that “full throttle” comment. Was that honest?

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Judge, Jazz, Grisham hit 30+ last year, bellinger had 29 last year and has two 30 HR seasons in his past.  Stanton got hurt but still has 30 HR pop, in 1/2 season last year he dinged 24.  This doesnt include Ben Rice who is expected to have his first 30 HR season this year or Goldschmidt who isnt as washed as you think (but too washed to get to 30).

If you add up all the 30 (or more) homerun seasons that the yankees players have had in their past its like 27 total 30 HR seasons (but that does inlcude Goldy, which may be unfair).  No player in the red sox organization has ever had a 30 HR season.

We are a fourth place team at best. The other teams in the division improved more than we did. Henry lied to us again.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

I think you’re giving him too much credit. I believe (and I admit I don’t know for sure) that he puts a higher priority on profit than winning and knows that the recent iterations of the Flops are winners. 
That makes him dishonest. How about that “full throttle” comment. Was that honest?

I never said or implied he puts winning above profits. I expect most business owners put profit near or at the top of their priorities.

BTW, Tom Werner said "full throttle." I'm not even sure he was lying, as he might have actually believed they were going to spend more. If he knew they were not and said it, I'd agree he was a liar or dishonest.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

We are a fourth place team at best. The other teams in the division improved more than we did. Henry lied to us again.

"At best?" Really? You think the chances are too low for us to be third place at best?

Of course, we might finish last (at worst...LOL.)

I think we are better the the O's and very close to the Yanks. You do know that Cole, Rodon and Schmidt are expected to start the season on the IL, right?

We've all seen up front and personal how many Sox pitchers started on the IL and came back to do great, right? Dozens and dozens, right?

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

"At best?" Really? You think the chances are too low for us to be third place at best?

Of course, we might finish last (at worst...LOL.)

I think we are better the the O's and very close to the Yanks. You do know that Cole, Rodon and Schmidt are expected to start the season on the IL, right?

We've all seen up front and personal how many Sox pitchers started on the IL and came back to do great, right? Dozens and dozens, right?

Schmidt is their #6, I wouldnt bet against Cole and Rodon is minor hurt.  Plus they have a lot of hitting.  I dont think we're close to them, personally.

I do think we're better than the Rangers, Tigers, Guardians, Astros, Orioles.  I think us and the Jays have a 1/2 step up on these teams.  But I think that we're a full step behind the Ms and Yanks. Doesnt mean we cant finish better, will just need injury luck, an internal breakout, and hopefully a big bat added in-season to replace whoever is slouching/hurt.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Judge, Jazz, Grisham hit 30+ last year, bellinger had 29 last year and has two 30 HR seasons in his past.  Stanton got hurt but still has 30 HR pop, in 1/2 season last year he dinged 24.  This doesnt include Ben Rice who is expected to have his first 30 HR season this year or Goldschmidt who isnt as washed as you think (but too washed to get to 30).

If you add up all the 30 (or more) homerun seasons that the yankees players have had in their past its like 27 total 30 HR seasons (but that does inlcude Goldy, which may be unfair).  No player in the red sox organization has ever had a 30 HR season.

You listed 5 and a fully washed up Goldschmidt being mentioned cannot be serious.

Stanton? LMAO. He just turned 86...errr...I mean 36. (If he can get 500-550 PAs, maybe, but you can say that about a lot of players.)

Ben Rice is at the age where he could add enough to hit 30.

Grisham never hit over 17, until last year, but yes, he can be counted. Chisholm did it once, too, but he counts.

Judge might hit 10, if he's on the IL. Of course, he counts.

I'd say 5 is pushing it, 4 could happen, and 2-3 is most likely.

Now, give Abreu 600 PAs in '25 and he hits 30. Contreras in Fenway might have a better chance at 30 than Stanton. If you can count Rice and Stanton, I'm counting Casas! That's three!

No doubt, the Yanks kill us in power and overall offense. Their pitching depends totally on 3 returning from injury pitchers and a 32 year old Max Fried.

[Larry Cook]

Now that training camp has begun. I think bres-slow needs a huge round of applause!!

- he got us a quality number 2 starter! 
- he got us a quality number 3 starter! 
- he got us a number 5 starter. 
- he kept Tolle, early and Witherspoon. 
- he revamped the leakiest infield in the majors. 
 

I know people will complain about Bregman and the lack of power!! 
 

but outside of a lefty or two for the bullpen, I feel very confident in the outstanding offseason he had!!!

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

 Rodon is minor hurt.  

Found this...

Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón is recovering from October 2025 surgery to remove bone spurs and loose bodies in his left elbow, putting him on track to return to the rotation in April or May 2026. He has begun throwing and reports improved mobility, feeling "great" during his rehab in Florida. This is his second major elbow procedure following Tommy John surgery in 2019. Late April and early May is the targeted return time for Rodon

Cole was really good back in 2023. He has to prove he's back.

Gerrit Cole is recovering from March 2025 Tommy John surgery with internal bracing for a right elbow ligament tear and is expected to return to the Yankees in May or June 2026.