Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I have said along that we SHOULD go 5 or even 6 years on Bo given he is only about to turn 28.  I also know we won't be signing him.  5 years on Bregman was too long IMO.  At this point I don't care if we sign anyone. What I DO care is if we trade one of our top SP prospects for someone like Donovan.

You make it sound like I am the only Red Sox fan that is upset about how the offseason has gone FOR AT LEAST 3 YEARS NOW.  I am 100% convinced that all JH cares about now is making sure the Sox field a REASONABLE AND DECENT team and his revenues stay strong  His promise of the Sox fielding a WS contender EVERY YEAR has RUNG HOLLOW.

This forum is proof enough that you are very much not alone in that regard. There has been one or two where I felt the same - last year was not one of them.

But I'm more just trying to figure out how your thoughts are formulated, because to me there's little to no chance of getting Bo at just 5 or 6 years. Yet you don't want them going too long but also want them to improve. Feels like a no-win situation in that regards.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 could care les

The continued butchering of this simple saying drives me wild. WILD I SAY.

Almost as wild as the Sox fanbase today. Almost. 

[Randy Red Sox]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

This forum is proof enough that you are very much not alone in that regard. There has been one or two where I felt the same - last year was not one of them.

But I'm more just trying to figure out how your thoughts are formulated, because to me there's little to no chance of getting Bo at just 5 or 6 years. Yet you don't want them going too long but also want them to improve. Feels like a no-win situation in that regards.

I don't think it is a sure thing Bo gets more than 6 years. That only puts him at 34 at the end. Maybe he asks for opt outs after say 3 or 4 yrs. That would give him a chance for 1 more big contract.  I doubt very much that we sign him anyway. I think he ends up in Philly.

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I don't think it is a sure thing Bo gets more than 6 years. That only puts him at 34 at the end. Maybe he asks for opt outs after say 3 or 4 yrs. That would give him a chance for 1 more big contract.  I doubt very much that we sign him anyway. I think he ends up in Philly.

The rumours I keep seeing is that he's asking for $300m (which is wild) so I'm thinking he's wanting lonnnnng... like 8-10 years long.

His price just went up that's for sure. I wouldn't put us as favourites, but they're running out of options unless it's Raf to 2nd base. 

[Larry Cook]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Speaking of the Yanks. They may not sign Bellinger, despite a reported $30M AAV offer.

Rodon is expected to start the season on the IL. He's 33.

Cole is coming off a major injury and hasn't had a great season since 2023. He's 35 and some are writing off the 36 year old Gray, who has actually pitched well from 2024-2025.

They have some good young pitchers and players, but better than ours?

Ages in 2025:

22 Dominguez

24 Schlitter & Volpe

25 Wells 

26 Rice & Warren

27 Chisholm & Gil

Red Sox:

21 Anthony

22 Tolle & Mayer

23 Early, Harrison & Campbell

24 Rafaela

25 Casas

26 Crochet, Bello, Abreu & Narvaez

27 Slaten

If you factor in age progression production, we could see some significant gains on NYY.

Who protects judge in their lineup??? How much air is Stanton wasting in their lineup 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I doubt anybody is out bidding cohen (or perhaps maybe the dodgers) on skubal next November!! 

Hence the but if we could get Skubal on the $300M/8 I mentioned,

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Who protects judge in their lineup??? How much air is Stanton wasting in their lineup 

They will probably still end up getting Bellinger. I heard talk they are shopping Chisolm.

I think the Yanks are overrated, but I said the same, last year. BTW, they were in 3rd place for most of AUG. It took a slump by the Sox for them to pass us, but they topped us by 5 games, so it was legit.

Pyth had them up 97 wins to 92.

[moonslav59]

I was more upset losing the bidding on Alonso, but we added a decent 1Bman in Contreras.

If we can add Suarez or maybe Paredes, without giving up the world, we should be fine.

Adding a good RP helps.

Adding a #2 SP'er too, would be buttah.

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They will probably still end up getting Bellinger. I heard talk they are shopping Chisolm.

I think the Yanks are overrated, but I said the same, last year. BTW, they were in 3rd place for most of AUG. It took a slump by the Sox for them to pass us, but they topped us by 5 games, so it was legit.

Pyth had them up 97 wins to 92.

We really do not have much control over what the enemy does!   But if we had a true number 2 starter, I would feel very good about our World Series chances 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We really do not have much control over what the enemy does!   But if we had a true number 2 starter, I would feel very good about our World Series chances 

I'd like a better #2 SP'er and have been suggesting it, even after getting Gray, but I like Crochet & Gray more than Cole & Rodon. I like Bello as the #3 more than 20 other team's #3. We may not be great at 4-5, but they are not key for the playoffs. I like our 6-9 (Crawford. Harrison, Tolle & Early) maybe more than 29 other teams.

We do have some things to be optimistic about.

[Larry Cook]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I'd like a better #2 SP'er and have been suggesting it, even after getting Gray, but I like Crochet & Gray more than Cole & Rodon. I like Bello as the #3 more than 20 other team's #3. We may not be great at 4-5, but they are not key for the playoffs. I like our 6-9 (Crawford. Harrison, Tolle & Early) maybe more than 29 other teams.

We do have some things to be optimistic about.

I have proof that crochet can beat fried in game 1!  
but can gray and bello beat cole and shitlister (or rodon)in game 2 and 3??  I seriously doubt it! 

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs projected: 

BOS:

3. Crochet 5.6

9. Gray 3.8

75. Bello 2.0 (105 Sandoval 1.6/ 142 Oviedo 1.2) If you add Tolle & Early combined, they project to 1.7 in 142 IP combined.

NYY

12. Fried 3.6

62. Rodon 2.2

82. Cole 1.9 (88 Schlitter 1.8/ 122 Warren 1.5)

TOR

10. Cease 3.8

38. Gausman 2.8

48. Bieber 2.5 (52 Ponce 2.3/ 69. Yesavage)

I'm not saying I agree with these projections, but they do show our 1-3 slots look fine. Our 4-9 look fine, too.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I have proof that crochet can beat fried in game 1!  
but can gray and bello beat cole and shitlister (or rodon)in game 2 and 3??  I seriously doubt it! 

You keep fixating on this, and to me those match-ups are very close.

I keep wondering why you assume Cole rebounds from injury to pitch like he die 3 years ago (2023) and why Rodon who starts the year on the IL should be viewed in such a glowing light? Gray and Bello both pitched well, last year.

I do like Schlitter better than our #4, but we are talking 1-3 starters for the playoffs.

Crochet >> Fried

Gray = Cole (slight edge to Cole, if he proves he's back)

Bello= Rodon (slight edge to Rodon, if we know he'll be back)

If we are assuming pitcher return to form, then let's count Sandoval's 3.7 fWAR year in 2022 as in play for our #3 slot over Bello. 3.7 beats any Cole or Rodon fWAR from 2024 to 2025.

I'm seeing different criteria being used for Yankee pitchers vs Boston's. Rodon had a 4.53 FIP over his last 20 starts of 2025, but we discount Bello for a "bad second half."

Can we go apples to apples, here?

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You keep fixating on this, and to me those match-ups are very close.

I keep wondering why you assume Cole rebounds from injury to pitch like he die 3 years ago (2023) and why Rodon who starts the year on the IL should be viewed in such a glowing light? Gray and Bello both pitched well, last year.

I do like Schlitter better than our #4, but we are talking 1-3 starters for the playoffs.

Crochet >> Fried

Gray = Cole (slight edge to Cole, if he proves he's back)

Bello= Rodon (slight edge to Rodon, if we know he'll be back)

If we are assuming pitcher return to form, then let's count Sandoval's 3.7 fWAR year in 2022 as in play for our #3 slot over Bello. 3.7 beats any Cole or Rodon fWAR from 2024 to 2025.

I'm seeing different criteria being used for Yankee pitchers vs Boston's. Rodon had a 4.53 FIP over his last 20 starts of 2025, but we discount Bello for a "bad second half."

Can we go apples to apples, here?

I think the war you provide is how teams do against the whole league. And that is great for figuring who gets into the playoffs. 
but the playoffs are about individual matchups! Boston vs New York for example. 
 

I know Boston struggles against left handed pitching!  If fried is pitching against any Boston pitcher (other than crochet). We lose that game, 

Rodon probably sucks against most teams, but he is left handed so he is probably going to have a solid to good game against us! 
 

I do expect shitlister to have regression against us once we see him again. And definitely come playoff time. 
 

If I am new York. I start Cole in game 1. Then let the lefties win the series in game 2 and 3!  

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If I am new York. I start Cole in game 1. Then let the lefties win the series in game 2 and 3!  

Couldn't we start Gray game 1 and Crochet game 2 and win both, then?

BTW, Career head to head splits favor the Sox...

Career splits:

Crochet 2.90

Bello 2.35 (1.89 in '25)

Crawford 3.35

Sandoval 3.70

Gray v NYY 4.15

vs BOS

Fried 2.37

Cole 5.23

Rodon 4.28

[Larry Cook]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Couldn't we start Gray game 1 and Crochet game 2 and win both, then?

BTW, Career head to head splits favor the Sox...

Career splits:

Crochet 2.90

Bello 2.35 (1.89 in '25)

Crawford 3.35

Sandoval 3.70

Gray v NYY 4.15

vs BOS

Fried 2.37

Cole 5.23

Rodon 4.28

Wow! And still crochet beat fried last year in the playoffs 

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You keep fixating on this, and to me those match-ups are very close.

I keep wondering why you assume Cole rebounds from injury to pitch like he die 3 years ago (2023) and why Rodon who starts the year on the IL should be viewed in such a glowing light? Gray and Bello both pitched well, last year.

I do like Schlitter better than our #4, but we are talking 1-3 starters for the playoffs.

Crochet >> Fried

Gray = Cole (slight edge to Cole, if he proves he's back)

Bello= Rodon (slight edge to Rodon, if we know he'll be back)

If we are assuming pitcher return to form, then let's count Sandoval's 3.7 fWAR year in 2022 as in play for our #3 slot over Bello. 3.7 beats any Cole or Rodon fWAR from 2024 to 2025.

I'm seeing different criteria being used for Yankee pitchers vs Boston's. Rodon had a 4.53 FIP over his last 20 starts of 2025, but we discount Bello for a "bad second half."

Can we go apples to apples, here?

Bello got lit up in the post season.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like a better #2 SP'er and have been suggesting it, even after getting Gray, but I like Crochet & Gray more than Cole & Rodon. I like Bello as the #3 more than 20 other team's #3. We may not be great at 4-5, but they are not key for the playoffs. I like our 6-9 (Crawford. Harrison, Tolle & Early) maybe more than 29 other teams.

We do have some things to be optimistic about.

Your #4-5-6-7-8 is what gets you into the playoffs.

Your #1-2-3 is what gets you to the WS.

In 2007, Schilling said the smartest that he ever said.  When asked who was going to finish 1st between us and the NYY, his reply was 'whoever gets the most starts from their regular rotation.  We got 140 from our regular rotation, plus a little bonus from the prospects Lester, Gabbard and Buchholz going 11-1.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Bello got lit up in the post season.

One game sample size. Wow!

[harmony]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was more upset losing the bidding on Alonso, but we added a decent 1Bman in Contreras.

If we can add Suarez or maybe Paredes, without giving up the world, we should be fine.

Adding a good RP helps.

Adding a #2 SP'er too, would be buttah.

After Alex Bregman reportedly signed with the Cubs, numerous proposed Red Sox trades for Astro third baseman Isaac Paredes popped up at Baseball Trade Values:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=paredes

Scroll down.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Your #4-5-6-7-8 is what gets you into the playoffs.

Your #1-2-3 is what gets you to the WS.

In 2007, Schilling said the smartest that he ever said.  When asked who was going to finish 1st between us and the NYY, his reply was 'whoever gets the most starts from their regular rotation.  We got 140 from our regular rotation, plus a little bonus from the prospects Lester, Gabbard and Buchholz going 11-1.

When you look at 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018 vs surrounding seasons, the correlation is stunningly accurate.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

After Alex Bregman reportedly signed with the Cubs, numerous proposed Red Sox trades for Astro third baseman Isaac Paredes popped up at Baseball Trade Values:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=paredes

Scroll down.

I made a few myself, over the the previous few weeks.

I think BTV undervalues Paredes. They have Campbell worth more.

Would you swap the two?

[harmony]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I made a few myself, over the the previous few weeks.

I think BTV undervalues Paredes. They have Campbell worth more.

Would you swap the two?

In a heartbeat. Kristian Campbell may be hard-pressed to match the career of one-time top hitting prospect Dustin Ackley, another ACC college product who likewise made an MLB debut in his age 23 season.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ackledu01.shtml

Baseball Trades Values likely undervalues Isaac Paredes, although FanGraphs' Roster Resource does not even project Paredes in the Houston starting lineup:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

On  Friday Seattle podcasters speculated on Paredes as a Mariner trade target:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ackledu01.shtml

BTW Paredes and the Astros may be headed for an arbitration hearing after failing to agree on a 2026 salary. MLB Trade Rumors projected a 2026 salary of $9.3 million after Paredes earned $6.625 million in 2025. Paredes has filed a salary of $9.95 million, while the Astros have filed a salary of $8.75 million.

[JoeBrady]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When you look at 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018 vs surrounding seasons, the correlation is stunningly accurate.

Yup, I've mentioned it several times, but when we started Crochet, Bello & Gio, we were really good.  Most teams are obviously better when they start their 1-2-3, but fared far worse with everyone else.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

One game sample size. Wow!

so what long term success does Bello have especially in the post season?. W/C round is 2/3 I am not anti Bello and don't want him traded but just going against your view.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yup, I've mentioned it several times, but when we started Crochet, Bello & Gio, we were really good.  Most teams are obviously better when they start their 1-2-3, but fared far worse with everyone else.

The weird thing about 2025 was that Bello & Gio were not our original 2 & 3. Houck and Buehler were.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

so what long term success does Bello have especially in the post season?. W/C round is 2/3 I am not anti Bello and don't want him traded but just going against your view.

I'm not ever holding one bad game against anyone.

I just remain indifferent on Bello in big games.

[JoeBrady]

43 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

so what long term success does Bello have especially in the post season?. W/C round is 2/3 I am not anti Bello and don't want him traded but just going against your view.

Tough to say what happened.  He has really good career numbers against the NYY.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Tough to say what happened.  He has really good career numbers against the NYY.

We don't need to have a plus or minus opinion on something as small of a sample size as this.

[Randy Red Sox]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We don't need to have a plus or minus opinion on something as small of a sample size as this.

this argument on Bello is the least of the Red Sox issues