Better Off With 6 Seed Than 5 Seed

[notin]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We need Gio to start a playoff game. That is a no brainer.

We start De Leon and try to win.

Sox are playing for nothing; Tigers for the division.   Sox are winning after 5.

Are folks certain the Sox are the team not trying to win?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Plus with 32 teams, everyone can make the postseason in a nice, easily bracketable format…

MLB would probably follow the NHL format where half the teams make the PO's.

[dgalehouse]

Let's not get ridiculous. Of course you don't start Giolito today. But there are other options. Tolle could start. You could use the bullpen. Promoting DeLeon to start today was a surprising and odd move. Certainly not warranted by his performance in AAA.  And it raises the question of if it is beneficial to the Sox to lose today. 

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, Beaneater said:

Agree. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a series in Cleveland. Sure, we might get our butts handed to us-- that's always a possibility. But every other possibility seems significantly more formidable.

I think it's about having Gio for the playoffs and not positioning for a preferred slot in the playoffs.

These types of choices occur all season, when a manager chooses not to use their closer or a certain RP'er, because they are looking at the long game not just that one game's results.

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Let's not get ridiculous. Of course you don't start Giolito today. But there are other options. Tolle could start. You could use the bullpen. Promoting DeLeon to start today was a surprising and odd move. Certainly not warranted by his performance in AAA.  And it raises the question of if it is beneficial to the Sox to lose today. 

But they won…

[Beaneater]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think it's about having Gio for the playoffs and not positioning for a preferred slot in the playoffs.

These types of choices occur all season, when a manager chooses not to use their closer or a certain RP'er, because they are looking at the long game not just that one game's results.

For sure Gio's got to rest today. I'm not really talking about any strategery to finagle a certain seed, just saying that if I could wave my magic wand, I'd probably take Cleveland in round 1 as the easiest option.

[dgalehouse]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

But they won…

Yes. I do think that the Tigers are not too upset about losing. Now, they play Cleveland . This seemed like the opposite of that old cliche, It's a shame that somebody had to lose. In this case it's a shame that somebody had to win. It doesn't seem right. Winner plays the Yankees. Loser plays the Guardians. Crazy system. 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Beaneater said:

For sure Gio's got to rest today. I'm not really talking about any strategery to finagle a certain seed, just saying that if I could wave my magic wand, I'd probably take Cleveland in round 1 as the easiest option.

If the Sox lost, they might be headed to Detroit and not Cleveland…

[notin]

Just now, dgalehouse said:

Yes. I do think that the Tigers are not too upset about losing. Now, they play Cleveland . This seemed like the opposite of that old cliche, It's a shame that somebody had to lose. In this case it's a shame that somebody had to win. It doesn't seem right. Winner plays the Yankees. Loser plays the Guardians. Crazy system. 

If Detroit won, they’d be playing in Detroit (assuming Cleveland, tied at the moment, loses)…

[dgalehouse]

1 minute ago, notin said:

If Detroit won, they’d be playing in Detroit (assuming Cleveland, tied at the moment, loses)…

Assuming the Guardians are scoreboard watching, they know there is no urgency to win their game. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Yes. I do think that the Tigers are not too upset about losing. Now, they play Cleveland . This seemed like the opposite of that old cliche, It's a shame that somebody had to lose. In this case it's a shame that somebody had to win. It doesn't seem right. Winner plays the Yankees. Loser plays the Guardians. Crazy system. 

The Rangers scored 3 times in the top of the 10th. If the Ranger bullpen can get 3 outs before it gives up 2runs, Detroit would have won the AL Central with a win today.

I don’t think they are as happy as you think about losing.  Especially since Cleveland has played them 6 times in the past 2 weeks and won 5 of them…

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

If Detroit won, they’d be playing in Detroit (assuming Cleveland, tied at the moment, loses)…

ESPN and ABC are quite happy for obvious reasons ($) that it's a Sox/Yankems series.

[notin]

1 minute ago, dgalehouse said:

Assuming the Guardians are scoreboard watching, they know there is no urgency to win their game. 

No but Detroit could have applied urgency with a win.  I don’t think Theyre as happy as you think with the loss…

[notin]

It’s odd that some folks think the east path involves taking on the team that just completed the largest comeback in MLB history

[dgalehouse]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

No but Detroit could have applied urgency with a win.  I don’t think Theyre as happy as you think with the loss

Yeah. I don't know. They had no way of knowing that Cleveland would lose. I think they would still rather play Cleveland , whether home or away , than travel to New York. I am getting confused by it all. 

[dgalehouse]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s odd that some folks think the east path involves taking on the team that just completed the largest comeback in MLB history

I just think the Yankees are a much more difficult opponent. And I really don't have much doubt about that. But a Yankees vs Red Sox series is still the best thing in baseball. But I would rather it be in the ALCS..  

[notin]

5 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I just think the Yankees are a much more difficult opponent. And I really don't have much doubt about that. But a Yankees vs Red Sox series is still the best thing in baseball. But I would rather it be in the ALCS..  

The Yankees are riding an 8 game win streak, but Cleveland just came back from 15 1/2 games down to take the Central, breaking a 110 year old record. And took down Detroit 5 times in the past two weeks.  There was no easy path. 
 

Boston wasn’t trying to lose; they were setting up the rotation. And Detroit was playing for the Central title…

[notin]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

MLB would probably follow the NHL format where half the teams make the PO's.

NBA does that as well.  But those sports have a huge advantage in that everyone plays indoors…

[dgalehouse]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

The Yankees are riding an 8 game win streak, but Cleveland just came back from 15 1/2 games down to take the Central, breaking a 110 year old record. And took down Detroit 5 times in the past two weeks.  There was no easy path. 
 

Boston wasn’t trying to lose; they were setting up the rotation. And Detroit was playing for the Central title…

 I don't know. Boston picked a guy up off the scrap heap to start the game. A guy with a 0-9 record and an ERA near 7.00 at Worcester. And they rested their top relievers. They weren't trying to lose, but they sure weren't trying too hard to win. And Cleveland's comeback to win the Central notwithstanding, the Yankees are clearly a better team. I don't think there is much doubt about that. 

[harmony]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The bigger flaw is giving division winners a higher initial seed that teams with better records.

The playoffs should be seeded by record.

1. TOR or NYY vs winner of 4-5 seeds.

2. NYY or TOR vs winner of 3 (SEA)-6 seeds.

TOR and NYY earned the two best records by being the two best team. They played in the toughest division against tougher opponents.

Seattle's luck was bound to turn in securing the No. 2 seed despite the American League's third-best record.

Since the start of the 2021 season the Mariners have the league's third-best cumulative regular-season record but have landed only two postseasons berths in those five seasons. That's bad luck.

Sometimes bad luck and good luck even out over time.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Seattle's luck was bound to turn in securing the No. 2 seed despite the American League's third-best record.

Since the start of the 2021 season the Mariners have the league's third-best cumulative regular-season record but have landed only two postseasons berths in those five seasons. That's bad luck.

Sometimes bad luck and good luck even out over time.

You missed by 1 or 2 games a few times, and did not play too well, the times you did get in.

Maybe this year will be different. Getting a first round bye and then not having to play NYY or BOS next looks good for you guys.

[Tedballgame]

8 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

No one could reasonably expect Cora to use Giolito today.  But Jose DeLeon??? Really?   Is that trying to win?

He looked pretty good.

[harmony]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You missed by 1 or 2 games a few times, and did not play too well, the times you did get in.

Maybe this year will be different. Getting a first round bye and then not having to play NYY or BOS next looks good for you guys.

In their only postseason appearance since 2001, the Seattle Mariners in 2022 went 2-3 in the postseason, including 2-2 in road games before losing their only home game 1-0 in 18 innings to the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros. 

[Beaneater]

6 hours ago, notin said:

It’s odd that some folks think the east path involves taking on the team that just completed the largest comeback in MLB history

Being hot is worth something. But as I recall we played a really hot but fundamentally not that great Rockies team in the 2007 World Series....

That said, we can beat the Yankees. We could have beaten the Jays or the Tigers or the Guardians too if it had shaken out that way. 

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

In their only postseason appearance since 2001, the Seattle Mariners in 2022 went 2-3 in the postseason, including 2-2 in road games before losing their only home game 1-0 in 18 innings to the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros. 

I forgot they swept the first series 2-0. I just remembered the Astros sweeping them.

[mvp 78]

Cleveland ended their season on a real heater going 19-4 since Sept 5. Not sure that's a team I'm throwing games in order to play. In that stretch, only one of their starters has had an ERA over 3. For a BOS offense that has struggled at times, that is not a good matchup IMO. 

[d-money]

I want the Yankees!!!! Hopefully we can get some timely hitting and our starting pitching shows up.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs has posted their odds for the WC round.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Cleveland ended their season on a real heater going 19-4 since Sept 5. Not sure that's a team I'm throwing games in order to play. In that stretch, only one of their starters has had an ERA over 3. For a BOS offense that has struggled at times, that is not a good matchup IMO. 

Cleveland has been on a ridiculous tear.  Granted, the bulk of it was against a struggling Tigers team, a useless White Sox team, and an AAA team wearing Twins uniforms.  But they did win.

The Yankees 8 game winning streak looks good, but they also beat up on 2 last place teams for those wins.

Boston didnt look as impressive down the stretch, but they were playing against teams fighting for postseason spots, and did manage to do pretty well against them.

 

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/28/2025 at 10:01 AM, dgalehouse said:

It leads to suspicion that teams might intentionally dump games to obtain what they feel is a more favorable playoff position. This is something that the gamblers would certainly pick up on.  And anything that casts doubt on the integrity of the games is obviously bad for the sport. 

Well, I guess that means Cora is going to be banned yet again from MLB because Saturday, after gaining the postseason Friday night, he didn't start a bunch of regulars--Story, Bregman, Duran, and Gonzalez--and the Sox lost.  What he did was obviously much worse than stealing signals or betting against the Sox.  How dare he rest players and disturb the competitive balance of MLB?