Red Sox (Giolito) vs Diamondbacks (Pfaadt): 9/6/24, 8:10pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sounds like the pitching match-up is Gio vs. a guy letting the air out of Boston's balloon.

Start huffing and puffing, Bosox...

[Maxbialystock]

Need a win tonight.  Giolito's ERA in August was 2.39 in six starts and 37.2 IP--easily the best on the Sox.

However, on August 9 @ San Diego, he gave up 4 ER in 4.2 IP.  And the Diamondbacks are better hitters/scorers than San Diego and last night showed why with 10 runs and 3 dingers.  

Davey Johnson died.   I regret I had forgotten much about him.  His degree from Trinity was in mathematics and he was one of the first to apply what is now called sabermetrics in figuring out lineups, etc.  In the freaking 1970's when he played for Earl Weaver he developed FORTRAN-based computer simulations to determine batting orders which Weaver happily ignored.  

Today everyone uses some version of sabermetrics/computer analysis pretty much routinely to determine batting orders, positioning of defensive players in the outfield and infield, how pitchers should pitch to each batter they face and what each batter should expect from a given pitcher, etc.

Nevertheless, the unpredictability of baseball games is driven by the fact that hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely is difficult and can sometimes result in hard hit outs.  Same goes for every pitcher who takes the mound and tries to throw the right pitch in the right part of the strike zone (or outside it) with the right spin and velocity.  

Right now in the AL there are realistically 9 teams out of 15 in the hunt for wild card slots and/or Division titles.  And their winning percentages ranged from .500 (Guardians) to .582 (Jays).   8 freaking per cent separates the best from the 9th best.  That's miniscule.  

In the NL it's 7%, only it's for 6 teams, not 9.  The Cubs, Padres and Mets are virtual shoo-ins for the 3 wild card slots.  Brewers winning percentage is .613 and both the Mets and Padres, who have pretty much nailed down the 2d and 3d wild card slots, are at .539.  

 

 

 

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

14 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Need a win tonight.  Giolito's ERA in August was 2.39 in six starts and 37.2 IP--easily the best on the Sox.

However, on August 9 @ San Diego, he gave up 4 ER in 4.2 IP.  And the Diamondbacks are better hitters/scorers than San Diego and last night showed why with 10 runs and 3 dingers.  

Davey Johnson died.   I regret I had forgotten much about him.  His degree from Trinity was in mathematics and he was one of the first to apply what is now called sabermetrics in figuring out lineups, etc.  In the freaking 1970's when he played for Earl Weaver he developed FORTRAN-based computer simulations to determine batting orders which Weaver happily ignored.  

Today everyone uses some version of sabermetrics/computer analysis pretty much routinely to determine batting orders, positioning of defensive players in the outfield and infield, how pitchers should pitch to each batter they face and what each batter should expect from a given pitcher, etc.

Nevertheless, the unpredictability of baseball games is driven by the fact that hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely is difficult and can sometimes result in hard hit outs.  Same goes for every pitcher who takes the mound and tries to throw the right pitch in the right part of the strike zone (or outside it) with the right spin and velocity.  

Right now in the AL there are realistically 9 teams out of 15 in the hunt for wild card slots and/or Division titles.  And their winning percentages ranged from .500 (Guardians) to .582 (Jays).   8 freaking per cent separates the best from the 9th best.  That's miniscule.  

In the NL it's 7%, only it's for 6 teams, not 9.  The Cubs, Padres and Mets are virtual shoo-ins for the 3 wild card slots.  Brewers winning percentage is .613 and both the Mets and Padres, who have pretty much nailed down the 2d and 3d wild card slots, are at .539.  

 

 

 

 

The Jays are 11.5 games ahead of Cleveland. How the hell is that miniscule? 

[Deja Doh]

46 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Need a win tonight.  Giolito's ERA in August was 2.39 in six starts and 37.2 IP--easily the best on the Sox.

However, on August 9 @ San Diego, he gave up 4 ER in 4.2 IP.  And the Diamondbacks are better hitters/scorers than San Diego and last night showed why with 10 runs and 3 dingers.  

Davey Johnson died.   I regret I had forgotten much about him.  His degree from Trinity was in mathematics and he was one of the first to apply what is now called sabermetrics in figuring out lineups, etc.  In the freaking 1970's when he played for Earl Weaver he developed FORTRAN-based computer simulations to determine batting orders which Weaver happily ignored.  

Today everyone uses some version of sabermetrics/computer analysis pretty much routinely to determine batting orders, positioning of defensive players in the outfield and infield, how pitchers should pitch to each batter they face and what each batter should expect from a given pitcher, etc.

Nevertheless, the unpredictability of baseball games is driven by the fact that hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely is difficult and can sometimes result in hard hit outs.  Same goes for every pitcher who takes the mound and tries to throw the right pitch in the right part of the strike zone (or outside it) with the right spin and velocity.  

Right now in the AL there are realistically 9 teams out of 15 in the hunt for wild card slots and/or Division titles.  And their winning percentages ranged from .500 (Guardians) to .582 (Jays).   8 freaking per cent separates the best from the 9th best.  That's miniscule.  

In the NL it's 7%, only it's for 6 teams, not 9.  The Cubs, Padres and Mets are virtual shoo-ins for the 3 wild card slots.  Brewers winning percentage is .613 and both the Mets and Padres, who have pretty much nailed down the 2d and 3d wild card slots, are at .539.  

 

 

 

 

 

I wonder if Davey Johnson applied those same mathematical principals 26 years ago when he allowed Chan Ho Park to stay in the 3rd inning to become the first pitcher to give up two grand slams in a game in the same inning to the same player (Fernando Tatis). 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The Jays are 11.5 games ahead of Cleveland. How the hell is that miniscule? 

Had he said 7.5 games seperate the #3-10 teams in the AL, then okay, but yes.

5 teams are within reach of the best record in the AL:

TOR

DET -1.5

NYY -4.0

BOS -4.5

HOU -5.5

Assuming DET wins the ALC, HOU/SEA wins the ALW and TOR, NYY or BOS wind the ALE, then 7 teams are in the WC race

78-63 NYY (TOR could end up as a WC team or DNQ)

78-64 BOS

73-68 SEA (HOU could end up as a WC team or DNQ)

73-69 TEX -0.5  (-5.0 from BOS)

72-69 KCR -1.0

71-70 TBR -2.0

70-70 CLE -2.5 

CLE is 6-4 in last 10 but lost 9 of 10 before that.

TBR has won 7 of 8 and 10 of 13 to get back in the race, but they were one of the AL's worst teams before that- going 14-31 from the end of June until Aug 12th.

KCR seems to be doing their best to fall out of the WC race, recently. They are 6-7 in their last 13 games, but were doing well before that.

TEX has gotten back into the race, despite losing Nate for the season. Maybe MVP will have the last laugh on me. Despite losing 2 of the last 3, TEX has won 10 of their last 13.

SEA seemed to do all the right things at the deadline, but they are 15-16 since AUG 1st and 16-18 since July 29th. They've lost 4 in a row and 6 of 7. As bad as HOU has been doing, they are gaining ground on SEA.

HOU went 24-8 from June 1st to July 6th, but are 53-57 the rest of the season, including 22-30 since July 7th. They are 5-5 in their last 10. They have had  Yordan Alvarez and some pitchers come off the IL, recently.

NYY looked like they were headed for a possible losing record and missed playoffs just a few short weeks ago. They were 25-34 from June 30th to August 5th, but have gone 18-9 since then and 9-3 in their last 12. They play TOR, DET & BOS in their next 8 games, before easing of their schedule, so how they do in the next 8 days might define their season. They end the season w 3 at MN, 4 at BAL, 3 v CWS and 3 v BAL.

BOS has one of the best records since June 7th at 48-29. Some key injuries have throw a big Q in their chances. They've lost 2 straight and 4 of 7, but were doing very well right before these last 7 games. They've gone 10-5 and 13-9, recently.

TOR has gone 9-8 in their last 17 games. They play NYY for 2 more then HOU for 3. Later, they play BOS for 3 and at KCR for 3. 7 v TBR and 3 v BAL round out their last remaining games. They are 5-11 vs those two div foes, so far.

DET has lost 3 of 4 and 8 of 11, but they have a comfortable lead in their division. Their schedule is rather tough. It includes 3 at NYY and BOS plus 6 vs CLE. (3 at MIA and 3 v ATL are their other 6 games remaining.)

I guess you could say anyone could miss the playoffs, but I think DET is near a lock for the DIV and TOR should win the ALE or make the WC. NYY & BOS have nice odds and HOU or SEA (or TEX) has to win the ALW.

 

[moonslav59]

Arizona has some real good hitters, but today's 5-9 slots in today's lineup has these OPS:

5. .648

6. .700

7. .658

8. .527

9. .568

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Had he said 7.5 games seperate the #3-10 teams in the AL, then okay, but yes.

5 teams are within reach of the best record in the AL:

TOR

DET -1.5

NYY -4.0

BOS -4.5

HOU -5.5

Assuming DET wins the ALC, HOU/SEA wins the ALW and TOR, NYY or BOS wind the ALE, then 7 teams are in the WC race

78-63 NYY (TOR could end up as a WC team or DNQ)

78-64 BOS

73-68 SEA (HOU could end up as a WC team or DNQ)

73-69 TEX -0.5  (-5.0 from BOS)

72-69 KCR -1.0

71-70 TBR -2.0

70-70 CLE -2.5 

CLE is 6-4 in last 10 but lost 9 of 10 before that.

TBR has won 7 of 8 and 10 of 13 to get back in the race, but they were one of the AL's worst teams before that- going 14-31 from the end of June until Aug 12th.

KCR seems to be doing their best to fall out of the WC race, recently. They are 6-7 in their last 13 games, but were doing well before that.

TEX has gotten back into the race, despite losing Nate for the season. Maybe MVP will have the last laugh on me. Despite losing 2 of the last 3, TEX has won 10 of their last 13.

SEA seemed to do all the right things at the deadline, but they are 15-16 since AUG 1st and 16-18 since July 29th. They've lost 4 in a row and 6 of 7. As bad as HOU has been doing, they are gaining ground on SEA.

HOU went 24-8 from June 1st to July 6th, but are 53-57 the rest of the season, including 22-30 since July 7th. They are 5-5 in their last 10. They have had  Yordan Alvarez and some pitchers come off the IL, recently.

NYY looked like they were headed for a possible losing record and missed playoffs just a few short weeks ago. They were 25-34 from June 30th to August 5th, but have gone 18-9 since then and 9-3 in their last 12. They play TOR, DET & BOS in their next 8 games, before easing of their schedule, so how they do in the next 8 days might define their season. They end the season w 3 at MN, 4 at BAL, 3 v CWS and 3 v BAL.

BOS has one of the best records since June 7th at 48-29. Some key injuries have throw a big Q in their chances. They've lost 2 straight and 4 of 7, but were doing very well right before these last 7 games. They've gone 10-5 and 13-9, recently.

TOR has gone 9-8 in their last 17 games. They play NYY for 2 more then HOU for 3. Later, they play BOS for 3 and at KCR for 3. 7 v TBR and 3 v BAL round out their last remaining games. They are 5-11 vs those two div foes, so far.

DET has lost 3 of 4 and 8 of 11, but they have a comfortable lead in their division. Their schedule is rather tough. It includes 3 at NYY and BOS plus 6 vs CLE. (3 at MIA and 3 v ATL are their other 6 games remaining.)

I guess you could say anyone could miss the playoffs, but I think DET is near a lock for the DIV and TOR should win the ALE or make the WC. NYY & BOS have nice odds and HOU or SEA (or TEX) has to win the ALW.

 

"BOS has one of the best records since June 7th at 48-29. Some key injuries have throw a big Q in their chances."

 

Chances for ?? It would take a monumental flop for them not to make the playoffs-not that they haven't done that many times before and are perfectly capable of doing it again, I am not expecting it. I think they will get in but getting through the first round or two could be a challenge. They simply aren't that good-but other than the Jays no one is. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

"BOS has one of the best records since June 7th at 48-29. Some key injuries have throw a big Q in their chances."

 

Chances for ?? It would take a monumental flop for them not to make the playoffs-not that they haven't done that many times before and are perfectly capable of doing it again, I am not expecting it. I think they will get in but getting through the first round or two could be a challenge. They simply aren't that good-but other than the Jays no one is. 

Chances for a ring.

I do not see TOR as having a much higher chance at making the WS than the Sox, DET or NYY. Nobody looks dominating in the AL.

If Anthony and Abreu come back, I think our chances become much better. hence less "Qs" about our chances.

To me, we have the best 1-2-3 SP & 1-2 RP quintet in the AL and maybe even MLB. Our defense is playing better. Our baserunning is better than average. Our line-up is questionable without A & A. Even with them, it may not be strong enough, but my whole point- all year- is that all AL teams have major issues with their O or pitching (or both.)

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs Odds:

Make Playoffs:

99.5 to 100% TOR, DET, NYY

96% BOS

90% HOU

68% SEA

19 TEX, 16 KCR, 7 TBR, 5 CLE

Win World Series:

11.3 NYY

10.5 TOR

9.3 DET

5.4 SEA & HOU

3.3 BOS

NL: 15.3 LAD, 12.0 PHI, 9.3 MIL, 9.1 NYM, 4.2 CHC, 3.5 SDP

We are 12th in odds of winning the WS.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Deja Doh said:

 

I wonder if Davey Johnson applied those same mathematical principals 26 years ago when he allowed Chan Ho Park to stay in the 3rd inning to become the first pitcher to give up two grand slams in a game in the same inning to the same player (Fernando Tatis). 

No system's perfect, and the WAR folks will tell you that in a heartbeat. 

That's why I put in all that stuff about pitching and hitting.  Who would have thunk the Pirates could score 7 runs off our ace Crochet?  Or how about last night against lefty ERod who held the Sox to 1 ER in 6 innings?  Lowe can't hit lefties worth a darn, but last night he tripled his first time up for the Sox only rbi against ERod.  

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The Jays are 11.5 games ahead of Cleveland. How the hell is that miniscule? 

It's huge, I agree.  So no way, no how can Cleveland catch the Jays.

Nevertheless, the Jays win just 58% of their games and the Guardians win 50%.  That means, depending on matchups of course, the Jays win 6 of 10 games vs the Guardians or 3 out of 5.  If you're a Cleveland fan, you gotta like those odds--which ignore matchups--going in.  

[mvp 78]

[moonslav59]

Yoshida has batted in the 1 slot just twice. My guess is they was as a PH'er or after coming into a game, later.

I'm not sure anyone else jumps out as being more deserving, and other options are mostly RHBs, so it is what it is.

Hottest hitters last 2 weeks:

1.031 DHam (not playing vs the RHP)

.995 Narvaez (rest did him some good)

.980 Refsnyder (welcome back)

.964 Anthony (on IL)

.927 Lowe (righty killer)

.913 Story (back in a groove)

.900 Jh Garcia (5 PAs)

.838 Romy (becoming the real deal)

.793 Duran (pretty steady)

.743 Wong (better than before) 1.171 last week

.696 Rafaela (been kinda steady between .700-.720)

.686 Yoshida (not sure he'd be playing w Anthony & Abreu) .962 last 7.

.594 Eaton (better than Jh Garcia?)

.366 Bregman (lots of hard hit outs)

[harmony]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida has batted in the 1 slot just twice. My guess is they was as a PH'er or after coming into a game, later.

Masataka Yoshida pinch-hit for leadoff hitter Romy Gonzalez in the ninth inning of an August 22 game against the Yankees:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA202508220.shtml

Yoshida pinch-hit for leadoff hitter Rob Refsnyder on July 20, 2024, in the 11th inning of a game against the Dodgers:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN202407200.shtml

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

Masataka Yoshida pinch-hit for leadoff hitter Romy Gonzalez in the ninth inning of an August 22 game against the Yankees:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA202508220.shtml

Yoshida pinch-hit for leadoff hitter Rob Refsnyder on July 20, 2024, in the 11th inning of a game against the Dodgers:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN202407200.shtml

That's what I figured. He has never begun a game as the leadoff hitter.

[moonslav59]

Yanks won 3-1. They scored 2 unearned runs on a Vladdy error.

 

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida has batted in the 1 slot just twice. My guess is they was as a PH'er or after coming into a game, later.

I'm not sure anyone else jumps out as being more deserving, and other options are mostly RHBs, so it is what it is.

Hottest hitters last 2 weeks:

1.031 DHam (not playing vs the RHP)

.995 Narvaez (rest did him some good)

.980 Refsnyder (welcome back)

.964 Anthony (on IL)

.927 Lowe (righty killer)

.913 Story (back in a groove)

.900 Jh Garcia (5 PAs)

.838 Romy (becoming the real deal)

.793 Duran (pretty steady)

.743 Wong (better than before) 1.171 last week

.696 Rafaela (been kinda steady between .700-.720)

.686 Yoshida (not sure he'd be playing w Anthony & Abreu) .962 last 7.

.594 Eaton (better than Jh Garcia?)

.366 Bregman (lots of hard hit outs)

Excellent laydown.  Thanks.  

[Maxbialystock]

I think Yoshida has the best K/at bats ratio on the team. Plus, of the players available for tonight, he has the 8th best OPS vs righties.  Eaton is playing because he isn't on the IL.  

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Pfaadt has a 5.33ERA and a 1.39WHIP. This spells trouble for the Sox.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

38 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think Yoshida has the best K/at bats ratio on the team. Plus, of the players available for tonight, he has the 8th best OPS vs righties.  Eaton is playing because he isn't on the IL.  

 

Eaton hasn't been on the team long enough. Give him time to get to the IL.

[FredLynn]

10 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Eaton hasn't been on the team long enough. Give him time to get to the IL.

I’d rather give Password a chance. Unfortunately we all know what Eaton can do.

[FredLynn]

Winning run on 2B

[d-money]

This team is gagging. They don’t deserve s***.

[FredLynn]

Little league ball by Story. Bums. 
Game over

Patriots start tomorrow

 Bums

[d-money]

Nice error 

[d-money]

Just now, FredLynn said:

Little league ball by Story. Bums. 
Game over

Patriots start tomorrow

 Bums

Idk how this team has a winning record over the Yankees. Puzzling.  They show no urgency to win these games.

 

[FredLynn]

52 pitches and Giolito isn’t out of the second

[FredLynn]

Just now, d-money said:

Idk how this team has a winning record over the Yankees. Puzzling.  They show no urgency to win these games.

 

I smell a horrible road trip coming up. These bums have flopped many times over the years. They are quite capable of flopping again.

[FredLynn]

Rafaela hit a powerful ground ball to the pitcher for another out. He’s hitting .198 since the ASB. He needs to sit. He’s not helping.