Marlins (Junk) vs Red Sox (Crochet): 8/17/25, 1:35pm

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela since the ASB: 508 OPS

The dropoff from CF defense (one of the two best in the game) to average 2b is too much to give up as well. He's been David Hamilton out there. Maybe worse! 

Thats just Cora, cooking with the groceries he’s given.  Completely without any say on the shopping list…

[FredLynn]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Romy is a top 30 batter in MLB. Rafaela and Narvaez are slightly above average, but call them average.

Among catchers, being near .720 is significantly above average, and he and Wong are plus on D.

Take a look at other teams through the same lense you look at the Sox. Almost all have way more below avg players than we do. Our strength is in balance and having very few bad players or even slightly below players.

Concentrating on just O is kinds weird, too, but we hold our own on O.

Not just "concentrating on O" as you suggest. But at the end of the day you DO have to score runs to win. Over the past month Rafaela has dropped 60 points in OPS; Narvaez is at .485; Gonzalez is at .675; Toro is at .541....I didn't even bother to look up Wong, who is useless and should have been replaced at the TDL. This is why we cannot accept Rafaela at under .720 despite his JBJ like defense.

[moonslav59]

Out of 350 players with 150+ PAs, number 135 has a 1.5 fWAR (the mean of 270 player or 9 per 30 teams) Teams should have 4-5 players above 1.5: we have 8. Romy is at 1.2 in just 66 games.

I'm guessing we have more players over 1.2 and 1.5 than any other team. If I'm wrong, maybe 1 or 2 teams have the same or more. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Thats just Cora, cooking with the groceries he’s given.  Completely without any say on the shopping list…

He's not the CBO. There's a pretty big hole on the right side of the IF that wasn't addressed at the deadline. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Out of 350 players with 150+ PAs, number 135 has a 1.5 fWAR (the mean of 270 player or 9 per 30 teams) Teams should have 4-5 players above 1.5: we have 8. Romy is at 1.2 in just 66 games.

I'm guessing we have more players over 1.2 and 1.5 than any other team. If I'm wrong, maybe 1 or 2 teams have the same or more. 

Are you counting Devers because I don't think he can help us down the stretch too often? 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Not just "concentrating on O" as you suggest. But at the end of the day you DO have to score runs to win. Over the past month Rafaela has dropped 60 points in OPS; Narvaez is at .485; Gonzalez is at .675; Toro is at .541....I didn't even bother to look up Wong, who is useless and should have been replaced at the TDL. This is why we cannot accept Rafaela at under .720 despite his JBJ like defense.

Ohhh, only the last month counts, now. Got it.

Why should that count any more than the last 2 months, 3 months or even 2 weeks?

Could it be because it fits your narrative of doom & gloom?

You brought up the offense.

Clearly Narvaez and Rafaela are significantly above average, if you count D and running.

Narvaez is 8th in fWAR among catcher.

Rafaela is 4th in fWAR in CF, and he's played 2B many games.

If you really think they are even near average, then we are too far apart to even have a discussion.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

 Over the past month Rafaela has dropped 60 points in OPS; 

So?

He's gained 47 in the last 2 months.

+61 in 3 months

+108 in 4 months

But only 1 month counts, I guess.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

So?

He's gained 47 in the last 2 months.

+61 in 3 months

+108 in 4 months

But only 1 month counts, I guess.

Recency is king for some folks.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela since the ASB: 508 OPS

The dropoff from CF defense (one of the two best in the game) to average 2b is too much to give up as well. He's been David Hamilton out there. Maybe worse! 

He should be in CF, agreed. We should have traded an OF'er for a SP'er, last winter.

It is what it is: a big mistake by Brez.

There is no reason to think Rafaela will continue to slide on O. I do agree, his defense suffers at 2B. Maybe we can play Romy at 2B and Lowe at 1B, but then we have to get Cora to bench Yoshida, so an OF'er DHs.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Recency is king for some folks.

What extra significance does one month have?

Is it proven that most players rarely improve upon their last 30 day numbers?

I've quotes last month stats, too, but I never even dream that these numbers show anything more than what they just did. I do think hot hand should play more and slumping players, less, in general, but history shows most players go up and down, all the time.

[FredLynn]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ohhh, only the last month counts, now. Got it.

Why should that count any more than the last 2 months, 3 months or even 2 weeks?

Could it be because it fits your narrative of doom & gloom?

You brought up the offense.

Clearly Narvaez and Rafaela are significantly above average, if you count D and running.

Narvaez is 8th in fWAR among catcher.

Rafaela is 4th in fWAR in CF, and he's played 2B many games.

If you really think they are even near average, then we are too far apart to even have a discussion.

Which numbers for those players do you dispute?

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

Which numbers for those players do you dispute?

I never disputed a single number. Why ask that?

I asked why the 1 month sample size means more than 2, 3 or 4 month sample sizes.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Which numbers for those players do you dispute?

Dispute this:

Last month, the Sox are 15-12 (a 90 win pace.)

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He should be in CF, agreed. We should have traded an OF'er for a SP'er, last winter.

It is what it is: a big mistake by Brez.

There is no reason to think Rafaela will continue to slide on O. I do agree, his defense suffers at 2B. Maybe we can play Romy at 2B and Lowe at 1B, but then we have to get Cora to bench Yoshida, so an OF'er DHs.

There is reason to think that he will be all over the place on the offensive side of the ball: 2 percentile chase rate. He'll run hot and cold, but probably lots of cold. 

3/27-6/27: 702 OPS

6/28-7/13: 1268 OPS

7/18-8/17: 508 OPS

That 2 week aberration is doing a lot of lifting for his overall numbers this season. If he can just go back to being a 700 OPS guy the rest of the way, that's still an improvement over '23 and '24. 

[FredLynn]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I never disputed a single number. Why ask that?

I asked why the 1 month sample size means more than 2, 3 or 4 month sample sizes.

I EXPECTED that these guys would sink as the season progressed. I wrote that here many times. Why? Because I expected that they would return to their career averages: Toro: .645; Romy: .675; Narvaez: .721. Did you expect that they would all outperform their career numbers all year? I didn't. 

At the end of the day you have to score runs to win games and these guys cannot be counted on to do that. Now, unfortunately but not unexpectedly, neither can we count on Rafaela to contribute.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Dispute this:

Last month, the Sox are 15-12 (a 90 win pace.)

Might be good enough to squeak into to the playoffs, barely. For the whole season we are at a very mediocre 88 win pace. Aren't you getting tired of mediocre Red Sox teams? I know I am.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There is reason to think that he will be all over the place on the offensive side of the ball: 2 percentile chase rate. He'll run hot and cold, but probably lots of cold. 

3/27-6/27: 702 OPS

6/28-7/13: 1268 OPS

7/18-8/17: 508 OPS

That 2 week aberration is doing a lot of lifting for his overall numbers this season. If he can just go back to being a 700 OPS guy the rest of the way, that's still an improvement over '23 and '24. 

I've never disputed Rafaela's streakiness and lack of discipline.

He has improved on his K rate and on his BB rate.

K rate:

27.1 first 2 seasons

19.2 in 2025

BB rate:

2.9 first 2 seasons

4.7 this year

Can he keep improving? Maybe.

Can he stay over .725 with a 20 K rate and 5 BB rate? Not an easy thing to do, for sure.

 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Might be good enough to squeak into to the playoffs, barely. For the whole season we are at a very mediocre 88 win pace. Aren't you getting tired of mediocre Red Sox teams? I know I am.

When the playoffs allow for 3 wild card teams, 88 wins is good enough. The last three seasons, only one 88 win team missed the playoffs. The only teams behind them in shouting distance are the Guardians (4 back) and Royals (4.5 back). Those teams really have to start winning games and being better than .500 if they want to make the playoffs. If the Sox just play like the '25 Sox, they should be fine. The only thing they can't do is fall apart like the '22, '23 and '24 Sox. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Might be good enough to squeak into to the playoffs, barely. For the whole season we are at a very mediocre 88 win pace. Aren't you getting tired of mediocre Red Sox teams? I know I am.

Oh, so 30 days for OPS but whole season for record.

90 is not mediocre. It's pretty close. 88 is top end of mediocre, and yes I'm greatly upset with mediocrity.

I think this team has taken a significant step forward, and the future looks even brighter. I'm not a Pollyanna. There are strong reasons to see verifiable improvements in several areas.

You chose to narrow the focus to set sample sizes to highlight how bad things are. You give fact, but only selected ones that vary in timeframe to suit your point.

When Rafaela was doing well for a month, it meant little to you- now it takes on great meaning.

 

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've never disputed Rafaela's streakiness and lack of discipline.

He has improved on his K rate and on his BB rate.

K rate:

27.1 first 2 seasons

19.2 in 2025

BB rate:

2.9 first 2 seasons

4.7 this year

Can he keep improving? Maybe.

Can he stay over .725 with a 20 K rate and 5 BB rate? Not an easy thing to do, for sure.

 

He's dropped 60 points over the last month. I think he is just feeling the weariness associated with a long season. Now that would be fine if the other guys I mentioned weren't also dropping off cliffs back towards their career norms. But they are. That is why the offense is so inconsistent and frankly struggling at times, despite good pitching. I am singling out Rafaela because of his poor plate discipline and IMO he is incapable of significant offensive improvement due to that. The other guys simply aren't that good-their career numbers prove it. 

Gotta be able to score runs in this game.

[Maxbialystock]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's not the CBO. There's a pretty big hole on the right side of the IF that wasn't addressed at the deadline. 

Cora started the season with Campbell at 2b and Casas at 1b.  Both had WAR's of -0.9.  Campbell lasted 67 games and Casas 29.  Since Casas, Sogard, Gonzalez, and Toro have played 1b with better WAR's than Casas.  Since Campbell, Gonzalez, Hamilton, Mayer, Rafaela, and maybe Toro have played 2b with better WAR's than Campbell.

With Mayer at 2b and Gonzalez at 1b, I think the Sox would be fine even though Mayer had not yet figured out how to hit lefties.  

On the other hand, Bregman and Story have both been terrific at 3b and SS.  

Season to date, these are key Sox OPS's:  Bregman 3.9, Duran 3.9, Rafaela 3.8, Abreu 3.2, Story 3.1, Narvaez 2.7, Anthony 2.1, Gonzalez 1.3, Refsnyder  1.2.  

 

 

 

 

 

[FredLynn]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Oh, so 30 days for OPS but whole season for record.

90 is not mediocre. It's pretty close. 88 is top end of mediocre, and yes I'm greatly upset with mediocrity.

I think this team has taken a significant step forward, and the future looks even brighter. I'm not a Pollyanna. There are strong reasons to see verifiable improvements in several areas.

You chose to narrow the focus to set sample sizes to highlight how bad things are. You give fact, but only selected ones that vary in timeframe to suit your point.

When Rafaela was doing well for a month, it meant little to you- now it takes on great meaning.

 

EVERYONE uses statistics to support their point in a rational debate. And EVERYONE uses the statistics that best do so. Why on earth would anyone expect that those guys should outperform their career norms? I hope for the best for Rafaela but in all honestly, as I have pointed out before here, his lack of plate discipline will likely be his downfall offensively. Been through guys like that on the team before and I don't want to do it again.

And yes, we are on a 88 win pace for the year. The future looks good, but like you, I am tired of the "just wait till next year" nonsense. Breslow could have done a better job at the TDL to make this a win now team.

[Maxbialystock]

28 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I EXPECTED that these guys would sink as the season progressed. I wrote that here many times. Why? Because I expected that they would return to their career averages: Toro: .645; Romy: .675; Narvaez: .721. Did you expect that they would all outperform their career numbers all year? I didn't. 

At the end of the day you have to score runs to win games and these guys cannot be counted on to do that. Now, unfortunately but not unexpectedly, neither can we count on Rafaela to contribute.

Are you serious?  The Sox are 11 games above .500.  They were 7 above  .500 right after the ASG, and on June 3d they were 5 games under. 500.  The best they've been is 13 games over .500.

I completely agree the San Diego and Houston series were disappointing (2-4), but both are competitive teams and were at their home parks.  The loss yesterday to Baltimore was just horrible no question. That was on the bullpen which also stunk Saturday.   The bullpen might in fact be the Sox achilles heel, but that remains to be seen.  

 

 

 

[FredLynn]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

When the playoffs allow for 3 wild card teams, 88 wins is good enough. The last three seasons, only one 88 win team missed the playoffs. The only teams behind them in shouting distance are the Guardians (4 back) and Royals (4.5 back). Those teams really have to start winning games and being better than .500 if they want to make the playoffs. If the Sox just play like the '25 Sox, they should be fine. The only thing they can't do is fall apart like the '22, '23 and '24 Sox. 

We might squeak into the playoffs but it will be a dog fight to do so. The other issue is the quality of the Red Sox team. Its not particularly good this year. I think the pitching has been OK, but as the position players slump and return to their career numbers I don't think we will be watching much Oct baseball this year, if any. The future looks much better IMO than the present.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We might squeak into the playoffs but it will be a dog fight to do so. The other issue is the quality of the Red Sox team. Its not particularly good this year. I think the pitching has been OK, but as the position players slump and return to their career numbers I don't think we will be watching much Oct baseball this year, if any. The future looks much better IMO than the present.

The Sox are 4th in runs scored per game.

You seem to give too much credit to the other teams.  Most of them have issues too.    

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Are you serious?  The Sox are 11 games above .500.  They were 7 above  .500 right after the ASG, and on June 3d they were 5 games under. 500.  The best they've been is 13 games over .500.

I completely agree the San Diego and Houston series were disappointing (2-4), but both are competitive teams and were at their home parks.  The loss yesterday to Baltimore was just horrible no question. That was on the bullpen which also stunk Saturday.   The bullpen might in fact be the Sox achilles heel, but that remains to be seen.  

 

 

 

You mean the Marlins. Baltimore is today. Our pen I think will be OK, especially if Slaten comes back strong. IMO our weakness will be run scoring ability. Aside from Bregman and Anthony I don't see any consistently good offensive players in our lineup.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Cora started the season with Campbell at 2b and Casas at 1b.  Both had WAR's of -0.9.  Campbell lasted 67 games and Casas 29.  Since Casas, Sogard, Gonzalez, and Toro have played 1b with better WAR's than Casas.  Since Campbell, Gonzalez, Hamilton, Mayer, Rafaela, and maybe Toro have played 2b with better WAR's than Campbell.

With Mayer at 2b and Gonzalez at 1b, I think the Sox would be fine even though Mayer had not yet figured out how to hit lefties.  

On the other hand, Bregman and Story have both been terrific at 3b and SS.  

Season to date, these are key Sox OPS's:  Bregman 3.9, Duran 3.9, Rafaela 3.8, Abreu 3.2, Story 3.1, Narvaez 2.7, Anthony 2.1, Gonzalez 1.3, Refsnyder  1.2.  

At the deadline: Mayer was out with the wrist injury, Hamilton was terrible, Sogard was a AAA guy, Campbell was retooling his swing and playing 1B. They needed more than just Romy to get through the remainder of the season. Rafaela shouldn't be the backup plan. 

[Maxbialystock]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

EVERYONE uses statistics to support their point in a rational debate. And EVERYONE uses the statistics that best do so. Why on earth would anyone expect that those guys should outperform their career norms? I hope for the best for Rafaela but in all honestly, as I have pointed out before here, his lack of plate discipline will likely be his downfall offensively. Been through guys like that on the team before and I don't want to do it again.

And yes, we are on a 88 win pace for the year. The future looks good, but like you, I am tired of the "just wait till next year" nonsense. Breslow could have done a better job at the TDL to make this a win now team.

Get off Rafaela.  I mean it.  His WAR is 3.8 and Mookie Betts is 2.7 and we are 3/4 into this season.  

Career norms do not mean that a given player will have exactly that OPS, WAR, DWAR, or whatever every season.  What's normal is going above or below those norms.  Jacoby Ellsbury hit 32 dingers in 2011 and less than 10 in every other season (he played 11) except one, 2014, when he hit 16.  

Bregman's OPS of .933 is well above his "norm" of .854.  What's abnormal also is that missed a bunch of games which he only did--same injury--in one other season of the 9 he's played.  

 

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox are 4th in runs scored per game.

You seem to give too much credit to the other teams.  Most of them have issues too.    

For the season our numbers look good offensively. That is because many players early on outperformed expectations. They are now returning to their career averages, which is to be expected. Over the last month team OPS is .724-average, roughly. You don't build a winner like that.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox are 4th in runs scored per game.

You seem to give too much credit to the other teams.  Most of them have issues too.    

If you don't watch the other teams on a nightly basis, you can't find fault in them.