Red Sox 2025 Trade Deadline Thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've been a big critic of swing and miss this whole decade, but am encouraged that it's obvious the Red Sox have made positive adjustments in the past month plus.

And it doesn't take much to envision guys like Story or Rafaela whiffing less if they stop chasing pitches that land in the dirt of the lefty batter's box. Those aren't strikes if they don't swing, and they couldn't reach them with a meter stick fitted with a decimeter extension (sorry to decimate fans of metrics).

 

[FredLynn]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

They are more likely to miss than they are to be Vlad Guerrero Sr.  This is true.

But hitters have tried to change their approach before by reducing chase rate.  And this gets implemented by taking more pitches.  It’s all they can really do.  When hitters take more pitches, they also take more strikes.  You’re probably going to cut down on swinging third strikes, but also increase taken third strikes.  But on the bright side - lower chase rate!

What did you think Cora meant by saying that the Sox would have to address the strikeout rate? Yes, I know that K rate isn't the same as chase rate but I maintain that they are related as the AI passage I quoted said. How should the team address the high K rate as Cora mentioned? What "adjustments" need to be made?

And taking more pitches is not the ONLY adjustment  that can be made when it comes to correcting chase rate. They could also be more selective and swing less at balls outside the zone. It would require a conscious effort but it can be done.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

What did you think Cora meant by saying that the Sox would have to address the strikeout rate? Yes, I know that K rate isn't the same as chase rate but I maintain that they are related as the AI passage I quoted said. How should the team address the high K rate as Cora mentioned? What "adjustments" need to be made?

And taking more pitches is not the ONLY adjustment  that can be made when it comes to correcting chase rate. They could also be more selective and swing less at balls outside the zone. It would require a conscious effort but it can be done.

It’s really the same thing.  Hitters are swinging at bad pitches because they don’t have time to realize they are bad pitches until it’s too late.  But your solution is “start realizing it sooner!!” ?

Can it be done? Maybe , but it’s far from being that simple..  Hundreds of hitters have tried it and the results are almost universally what I said would happen.  I wasn’t making a prediction; I  was recapping history…

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

What did you think Cora meant by saying that the Sox would have to address the strikeout rate? Yes, I know that K rate isn't the same as chase rate but I maintain that they are related as the AI passage I quoted said. How should the team address the high K rate as Cora mentioned? What "adjustments" need to be made?

The two-strike approach has been around forever, though most big leaguers have ignored it all century in pursuit of longball paychecks: choke up, get closer to the plate, shorten up your swing, and put the damn ball in play. This should be more relevant than ever, with Ghost runners and bunt haters.

And whatever you do, don't bat an eyelash or the battery will check the check, so all egomaniacs wearing blue down the baselines can have their 15 seconds of air-punching fame (notice announcers don't even pretend those calls are "swings" any more... it's just, "George Wendt!")

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s really the same thing.  Hitters are swinging at bad pitches because they don’t have time to realize they are bad pitches until it’s too late.  But your solution is “start realizing it sooner!!” ?

Can it be done? Maybe , but it’s far from being that simple..  Hundreds of hitters have tried it and the results are almost universally what I said would happen.  I wasn’t making a prediction; I  was recapping history…

 

 

 

I didn't say it was EASY. I think its worth the effort though and 5GoldGloves made some good suggestions to address the high K rate. 

There are hitters who have succeeded at increasing their contact rate by decreasing their chase rate and K rate: Kyle Schwarber, Amed Rosario, Hunter Renfroe, Pete Alonso, Bobby Witt, Dansby Swanson etc (https://www.google.com/search?q=hitters+who+have+improved+their+strikeout+rate&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS1157US1157&oq=hitters+who+have+improved+their+strikeout+rate&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRirAjIHCAYQIRirAjIHCAcQIRifBTIHCAgQIRiPAtIBCTEzODk0ajBqNKgCALACAQ&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

The chase rate and K rate are issues for this team. They are areas for improvement is all I am saying. I think I have made my case and supported my position with adequate documentation so its not simply a hollow opinion. As my old friend Joe Brady said "not all opinions are created equal. Those supported by facts are more credible than those which are not".

And with that I am going to end my contribution to this intellectual discussion as I think we have beaten this into the ground.

[notin]

39 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I didn't say it was EASY. I think its worth the effort though and 5GoldGloves made some good suggestions to address the high K rate. 

There are hitters who have succeeded at increasing their contact rate by decreasing their chase rate and K rate: Kyle Schwarber, Amed Rosario, Hunter Renfroe, Pete Alonso, Bobby Witt, Dansby Swanson etc (https://www.google.com/search?q=hitters+who+have+improved+their+strikeout+rate&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS1157US1157&oq=hitters+who+have+improved+their+strikeout+rate&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRirAjIHCAYQIRirAjIHCAcQIRifBTIHCAgQIRiPAtIBCTEzODk0ajBqNKgCALACAQ&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

The chase rate and K rate are issues for this team. They are areas for improvement is all I am saying. I think I have made my case and supported my position with adequate documentation so its not simply a hollow opinion. As my old friend Joe Brady said "not all opinions are created equal. Those supported by facts are more credible than those which are not".

And with that I am going to end my contribution to this intellectual discussion as I think we have beaten this into the ground.

Wha about those supported by AI? I’ve learned recently ChatGPT, for example is remarkably bad at selective baseball stats.

I didn’t have time to check every player later, but I looked at two on Fangraphs and found the numbers in that response to be fictional.

Dansby Swanson, for example, has a K% of 28% this year, up (not down) from 24% last year.  His chase rate was not significantly down, either, going from 24.2% to 24%.

Pete Alonso’s K% is slightly down this year, but his O-Swing is up.  But both are hovering right around his career norms.

Your conclusion is not supported by the provided facts…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It’s really the same thing.  Hitters are swinging at bad pitches because they don’t have time to realize they are bad pitches until it’s too late.  But your solution is “start realizing it sooner!!” ?

Can it be done? Maybe , but it’s far from being that simple..  Hundreds of hitters have tried it and the results are almost universally what I said would happen.  I wasn’t making a prediction; I  was recapping history…

 

 

 

Well said.  To improve chase rate, you need to stay back longer.  Its about the approach.  Telling someone to get better at recognizing spin is wasted breath.

And in 2025, staying back is a fools errand

You get better at Ks by learning to live with them.

I once had a friend tell me, his solution at poker was to stop losing money. Sounds great.  But he then became scared money, and his overall game went south.

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You crack me up. I try to be balanced and truthful. Fred is right, pretty often. Because I say it is not enabling him to continue being negative. He's been like that long before my first reply to his posts.

Your first reply to his post or your first reply to his post as "FredLynn"

[drewski6]

If a guy gets better at contact, swinging out of the zone - without staying back and turning into a slap hitter, its usually a personal thing.  Like Lasik.  Generally, when guys try too hard to avoid the k, they get worse overall.  Because you clog their head and have them second guessing.  Guys are guessing pitch, focusing on one part of the zone, using all of these cheats.  Its not about simply being more patient.

Schwarber prob use to try to cover the whole plate, and now is only swinging at pitches in his red zones.  Its not like someone was like "you should get better at not swinging at junk" and he was like "great idea, never thought of that"

You can do it, you can cut down on your k rate, but the coaching and effort component of it is not "swing less" its getting better at guessing pitch, pigeon holing, ambushing, sitting fast ball.  

[notin]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well said.  To improve chase rate, you need to stay back longer.  Its about the approach.  Telling someone to get better at recognizing spin is wasted breath.

And in 2025, staying back is a fools errand

You get better at Ks by learning to live with them.

I once had a friend tell me, his solution at poker was to stop losing money. Sounds great.  But he then became scared money, and his overall game went south.

LOL

It’s like getting poker advice from Kenny Rogers.

”You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.”

No s***…

[dgalehouse]

If you can't spot the sucker in your first half-hour at the table, then you are the sucker. 

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Wha about those supported by AI? I’ve learned recently ChatGPT, for example is remarkably bad at selective baseball stats.

I didn’t have time to check every player later, but I looked at two on Fangraphs and found the numbers in that response to be fictional.

Dansby Swanson, for example, has a K% of 28% this year, up (not down) from 24% last year.  His chase rate was not significantly down, either, going from 24.2% to 24%.

Pete Alonso’s K% is slightly down this year, but his O-Swing is up.  But both are hovering right around his career norms.

Your conclusion is not supported by the provided facts…

We can go on and on about this but you won’t convince me that it’s impossible for a player to improve their chase and K rates through conscious effort and tweaks in their approach. Certainly there are a lot of players who have probably tried and failed. But there are absolutely players who through effort and changes have improved. I would point to them as examples for the Sox players like Rafaela and Story who would benefit by such improvements. It absolutely can be done-but it’s not easy. 
We all want the Sox to be successful. To improve their chances going forward the coaching staff has to identify areas of weakness (like chase rate. K rates, errors) and coach the players in ways that promote improvement.  I’m not buying that these aren’t coachable teachable skills. 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

If you can't spot the sucker in your first half-hour at the table, then you are the sucker. 

“Every table has a stupidest player…”

[notin]

29 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We can go on and on about this but you won’t convince me that it’s impossible for a player to improve their chase and K rates through conscious effort and tweaks in their approach. Certainly there are a lot of players who have probably tried and failed. But there are absolutely players who through effort and changes have improved. I would point to them as examples for the Sox players like Rafaela and Story who would benefit by such improvements. It absolutely can be done-but it’s not easy. 
We all want the Sox to be successful. To improve their chances going forward the coaching staff has to identify areas of weakness (like chase rate. K rates, errors) and coach the players in ways that promote improvement.  I’m not buying that these aren’t coachable teachable skills. 

Most players who improve take years to do so.  It’s not like the coaching staff can just say “today we’re going to work on cutting down our chase rates.”

Slower MLB pitchers throw the ball across the plate in 0.4 seconds, meaning a hitter really has maybe 0.2 seconds to decide if a pitch is hittable.    It’s not just a matter of coaching to get hitters to make better decisions in a 0.2 second window when they’ve been doing this most of their lives.

If it was as easy as just coaching them, it would have already been done and no one would ever swing at a bad pitch…

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Much love to you, as always, Fred. 

Less love to Moon, who created this runaway monster!! 

What did I do?

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

It’s really the same thing.  Hitters are swinging at bad pitches because they don’t have time to realize they are bad pitches until it’s too late.  But your solution is “start realizing it sooner!!” ?

Can it be done? Maybe , but it’s far from being that simple..  Hundreds of hitters have tried it and the results are almost universally what I said would happen.  I wasn’t making a prediction; I  was recapping history…

You said it better than I.

Trying to realize earlier and doing so, may affect how a batter performs, and it might not all be good.

Tinker with something that is working may mess it up for some batters.

The theory looks good, on paper.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Most players who improve take years to do so.  It’s not like the coaching staff can just say “today we’re going to work on cutting down our chase rates.”

Slower MLB pitchers throw the ball across the plate in 0.4 seconds, meaning a hitter really has maybe 0.2 seconds to decide if a pitch is hittable.    It’s not just a matter of coaching to get hitters to make better decisions in a 0.2 second window when they’ve been doing this most of their lives.

If it was as easy as just coaching them, it would have already been done and no one would ever swing at a bad pitch…

I remember when Christian Guzman went from a .260 hitter to a .300 hitter overnight. He got Lasik vision correction.  Like Wild Thing Vaughn.

Thats how you improve overnight lol. Or juice.

[drewski6]

Or they start playing MLB The Show. It really helps.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

We can go on and on about this but you won’t convince me that it’s impossible for a player to improve their chase and K rates through conscious effort and tweaks in their approach. Certainly there are a lot of players who have probably tried and failed. But there are absolutely players who through effort and changes have improved. I would point to them as examples for the Sox players like Rafaela and Story who would benefit by such improvements. It absolutely can be done-but it’s not easy. 
We all want the Sox to be successful. To improve their chances going forward the coaching staff has to identify areas of weakness (like chase rate. K rates, errors) and coach the players in ways that promote improvement.  I’m not buying that these aren’t coachable teachable skills. 

Sure, but what is your take on the "how"?  HOW do players cut down on their k rates?  The majority of the time its by playing MLB the Show , so you learn about pitcher tendancies or studying film (which is the same thing) or having a hitting coach tell you keyhole or ambush or stick to your red zones

Its not about preaching patience.  Some of that, but by the time they get to the majors theyve kind of already maxed that kind of stuff out.  Now they need the tips and tricks.  Like "this guy has a dirty slider that he throws a lot, jump on the first thing straight" or "you are much better at hitting inside pitches, just look inside dont even swing at outside" or they get experience and get better at pitch-guessing.  Or they learn little things like how to cheat in the batters box.

Most of the gains come from this, not practicing pitch recognition or learning patience or any of that little league stuff.  By the time you reach the majors , there is only marginal gains to be made there.

Schwarber didnt stop pulling the ball, or letting it get deeper into the zone, you can tell by the HRs. He didnt learn to stop chasing balls out of the zone.  He probably learned pitcher tendancies and is better at guessing what pitcher x is going to throw.  He probably stopped trying to cover the whole zone and when he thinks a pitcher wants to work him away, hes only looking away.  Its more tips and tricks than it is practice and hard work.

[drewski6]

Its cheating.  And I dont mean banned products.  I mean legal tips and tricks.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, but what is your take on the "how"?  HOW do players cut down on their k rates?  The majority of the time its by playing MLB the Show , so you learn about pitcher tendancies or studying film (which is the same thing) or having a hitting coach tell you keyhole or ambush or stick to your red zones

Its not about preaching patience.  Some of that, but by the time they get to the majors theyve kind of already maxed that kind of stuff out.  Now they need the tips and tricks.  Like "this guy has a dirty slider that he throws a lot, jump on the first thing straight" or "you are much better at hitting inside pitches, just look inside dont even swing at outside" or they get experience and get better at pitch-guessing.  Or they learn little things like how to cheat in the batters box.

Most of the gains come from this, not practicing pitch recognition or learning patience or any of that little league stuff.  By the time you reach the majors , there is only marginal gains to be made there.

Schwarber didnt stop pulling the ball, or letting it get deeper into the zone, you can tell by the HRs. He didnt learn to stop chasing balls out of the zone.  He probably learned pitcher tendancies and is better at guessing what pitcher x is going to throw.  He probably stopped trying to cover the whole zone and when he thinks a pitcher wants to work him away, hes only looking away.  Its more tips and tricks than it is practice and hard work.

Very well said.

My point was about the "how," too. What adjustments are being made or asked to be made, and how any adjustments or attempts to adjust might affect other aspects of batting.

There have been a few relatively "free swingers" who hit pretty damn well. Maybe the never had a 10 to 1 K BB rate, as pretty much nobody has, but Rafaela's K:BB and K% rates are not the worst in MLB, anymore, and the whole league seems to be moving towards more Ks.

In theory, we can wish away that Rafaela can swing at less balls out of the K zone and not mess up anything else, but I'm not sure it's that simple.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Or they start playing MLB The Show. It really helps.

I think MLB pitchers pitch nearer the K zone than minor league pitchers do, as a whole. For someone who swings at balls outside the K zone, facing MLB pitching might help their numbers.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Very well said.

My point was about the "how," too. What adjustments are being made or asked to be made, and how any adjustments or attempts to adjust might affect other aspects of batting.

There have been a few relatively "free swingers" who hit pretty damn well. Maybe the never had a 10 to 1 K BB rate, as pretty much nobody has, but Rafaela's K:BB and K% rates are not the worst in MLB, anymore, and the whole league seems to be moving towards more Ks.

In theory, we can wish away that Rafaela can swing at less balls out of the K zone and not mess up anything else, but I'm not sure it's that simple.

Yes, you are correct.  Its trends , tendencies, hitting philsophy evolution.  Right now, pulling the ball is so in right now.  No hitting coaches are saying stay back, be patient.  They are saying if you get a fastball in a red zone, jump on it, meet the ball out in front.

It will likely change again, but right now, pulling the ball is in, and there is a reason for that.  Telling someone to stop pulling the ball is arguing with modern hitting philosophies.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think MLB pitchers pitch nearer the K zone than minor league pitchers do, as a whole. For someone who swings at balls outside the K zone, facing MLB pitching might help their numbers.

Im talking about the video game

[drewski6]

Do you know that Giolitto started playing the show earlier this year?  It works.  I think more for pitchers, but hitters too

[drewski6]

 

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, but what is your take on the "how"?  HOW do players cut down on their k rates?  The majority of the time its by playing MLB the Show , so you learn about pitcher tendancies or studying film (which is the same thing) or having a hitting coach tell you keyhole or ambush or stick to your red zones

Its not about preaching patience.  Some of that, but by the time they get to the majors theyve kind of already maxed that kind of stuff out.  Now they need the tips and tricks.  Like "this guy has a dirty slider that he throws a lot, jump on the first thing straight" or "you are much better at hitting inside pitches, just look inside dont even swing at outside" or they get experience and get better at pitch-guessing.  Or they learn little things like how to cheat in the batters box.

Most of the gains come from this, not practicing pitch recognition or learning patience or any of that little league stuff.  By the time you reach the majors , there is only marginal gains to be made there.

Schwarber didnt stop pulling the ball, or letting it get deeper into the zone, you can tell by the HRs. He didnt learn to stop chasing balls out of the zone.  He probably learned pitcher tendancies and is better at guessing what pitcher x is going to throw.  He probably stopped trying to cover the whole zone and when he thinks a pitcher wants to work him away, hes only looking away.  It’s more tips and tricks than it is practice and hard work.

Seems there is a desire for continued debate on the topic, which is fine with me. I thought we had beaten this into the ground.
The “how” is a better question for the coaches to answer. I earlier posted a quote from Cora where he addressed the high K rate (I don’t mind a relatively high chase rate as long as it doesn’t result in a high K rate-which is likely since they are related). He stated that everyone knows the team strikes out a lot and that “adjustments” would have to be made. What do you think those adjustments might be? 
I can think of a few that could improve the K rate rather quickly: cut down on the swing with two strikes; choke up a bit if necessary and move closer to the plate (as another poster suggested earlier here); don’t try to cover the entire plate all the time (Merloni mentioned this during one of the broadcasts-he said hitters can’t realistically cover the entire plate; and be better prepared to learn the tendencies of pitchers in certain situations. 
I don’t expect a 20% drop in k rate immediately but even a more modest improvement would likely result in a better performance. If you don’t make contact you likely won’t score runs-and good things happen when you do make contact. Trite, but true.
The point is that you don’t throw up your hands in despair claiming that nothing can be done to address your team weaknesses. You-as Cora stated-“make adjustments”.

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I remember when Christian Guzman went from a .260 hitter to a .300 hitter overnight. He got Lasik vision correction.  Like Wild Thing Vaughn.

Thats how you improve overnight lol. Or juice.

Or move to Antarctica, where the nights are 6 months long…

[Sox 42]

Something must have changed.  In high school in the 1950"s we were asked to try  stealing signs - not just pitch but location.  This was most effective when on second.  In football it was worse,  Formations and personnel were tells.  In basketball they signal the play bringing up the ball.  Is this cheating or preparation?  You guys decide.

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, but what is your take on the "how"?  HOW do players cut down on their k rates?  The majority of the time its by playing MLB the Show , so you learn about pitcher tendancies or studying film (which is the same thing) or having a hitting coach tell you keyhole or ambush or stick to your red zones

Its not about preaching patience.  Some of that, but by the time they get to the majors theyve kind of already maxed that kind of stuff out.  Now they need the tips and tricks.  Like "this guy has a dirty slider that he throws a lot, jump on the first thing straight" or "you are much better at hitting inside pitches, just look inside dont even swing at outside" or they get experience and get better at pitch-guessing.  Or they learn little things like how to cheat in the batters box.

Most of the gains come from this, not practicing pitch recognition or learning patience or any of that little league stuff.  By the time you reach the majors , there is only marginal gains to be made there.

Schwarber didnt stop pulling the ball, or letting it get deeper into the zone, you can tell by the HRs. He didnt learn to stop chasing balls out of the zone.  He probably learned pitcher tendancies and is better at guessing what pitcher x is going to throw.  He probably stopped trying to cover the whole zone and when he thinks a pitcher wants to work him away, hes only looking away.  Its more tips and tricks than it is practice and hard work.

Did Schwarber change anything?  His K% and O-Swing% are both within a 3% range over the last 5 years.  His K% is down 0.5% from last year, but his chase percentage is slightly up.

Schwarber has always been a patient hitter with decent plate discipline, which is why his OBP is usually .100 or so more than his BA.  But he does still have significant swing and miss in his game…