Article: Trying to Understand the Red Sox's Obsession with Jarren Duran

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This is why I didn't buy ranking Montgomery as the Red Sox' #5 prospect last year when he hadn't even played an inning of pro ball... or Kyson Witherspoon #5 last week when he hadn't thrown one pro pitch after getting drafted out of college.

Can we at least see a guy compete vs. professionals before we rave about his professional potential?

It's all a guessing game of no importance.  Teams' internal ratings have some importance.   

[Maxbialystock]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't trading Duran now. Rafaela isn't a good IFer though. He's most valuable in CF no matter what. 

I agree on Duran, but think Rafaela is useful at 2b against righty starters even though he's magic in CF.  

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Some prospects get a little too overhyped (Miguel Bleis, Gilberto Jiminez, Antoni Flores, etc). 

Any job that involves predicting the future also involves being incorrect…

[notin]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

I agree on Duran, but think Rafaela is useful at 2b against righty starters even though he's magic in CF.  

Vs RHP - Duran in CF, Rafaela at 2b

Vs LHP - Rafaela in CF, Romy at 2b

If the Sox do get a full time 1b, they need a new platoon place for Romy anyway…

[illinoisredsox]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This is why I didn't buy ranking Montgomery as the Red Sox' #5 prospect last year when he hadn't even played an inning of pro ball... or Kyson Witherspoon #5 last week when he hadn't thrown one pro pitch after getting drafted out of college.

Can we at least see a guy compete vs. professionals before we rave about his professional potential?

I tend to agree with you re. the second paragraph.  The only thing I would say is they may have some idea of a guys pro potential by looking at how he did against the guys who were drafted.  How he did against the non draftees is irrelevant. Obviously this works better at the college level, especially major conferences , where the better teams will have a few draftees, Not exactly the same since facing a couple guys with pro potential is a lot different than facing a whole lineup of actual pros

High school draft choices are even more of a crapshoot.

Unfirtunately, it always comes down to measurables and analytics.  A Bill Lee would have trouble getting a looksee today.

[illinoisredsox]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Any job that involves predicting the future also involves being incorrect…

Yep.  Just last night (and I mean like 11 pm), the forecast was for a 20% chance of light rain overnight, which here in western Illinois is a standard summer forecast.

We got the whole 20%.  Rain gauge said 3.3 inches this morning.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

 

Unfirtunately, it always comes down to measurables and analytics.  A Bill Lee would have trouble getting a looksee today.

Well, to be fair, Lee is 78 years old.  Not even Gossage or Jamie Moyer were pitching at that age.  The jury is still out on Rich Hill…

[illinoisredsox]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, to be fair, Lee is 78 years old.  Not even Gossage or Jamie Moyer were pitching at that age.  The jury is still out on Rich Hill…

Maybe we could add a year to Hill’s age every time he’s mentioned (kinda like that one first baseman we were talking about several weeks ago kept shrinking an inch every time his name was posted here).

[dgalehouse]

Breslow is a smart guy. And he is a baseball guy. He knows this team is shaping up quite well. He is not going to trade Duran at this point. I think that is becoming clear.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Unfirtunately, it always comes down to measurables and analytics.  A Bill Lee would have trouble getting a looksee today.

Not if you want to pay an app... Lee has a cameo on the mound in "Eephus" -- a movie about a bunch of extremely decrepit ballplayers. Besides still competing in old-timer tourneys, Lee also survived having a heart attack warming up in a Savannah Banana uni,

But your points are valid. My cousin the history teacher once summed it up when a student complained: "Why do we have to study the past?"

"Because we can't study the future."

[Jasonbay44]

What is the basis of the Salas/Cease trade being some amazing offer? Salas was horrible when healthy this year and has a back issue that’s nagged him all season, he’s been falling in prospect rankings and it’s fair to question whether his original high prospect ranking was premature.

Cease is also a rental who is having a down year. Duran is a very good player who is under control and they don’t have to move him. They likely get a better offer if they wait till off season. I don’t get the obsession with HAVING to move him. You don’t need to do anything unless a team overpays or you get a player you are in love with. 

[Jasonbay44]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm sorry, but no way in hell should he be ranked 29. maybe the 29th best catcher. maybe.

Salas rank is based off his age and “potential” he’s done absolutely nothing on the field to warrant this obsession with him nor does it make sense to trade Jarren Duran for him. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 7/28/2025 at 12:36 PM, mvp 78 said:

They aren't trading Duran now. Rafaela isn't a good IFer though. He's most valuable in CF no matter what. 

Rafaela is most valuable as an individual if CF BUT he is even more valuable for the team in RF with Duran in CF.  They must maximize total defense as a team. 

Campbell is starting to hit again and Hamilton is only a pinch runner so he belongs in AAA.  Either go with Campbell at 1B and Gonzalez at 2B or go with Campbell at 2B and Toro at 1B.  Both Toro and Gonzalez are on the decline as expected.  A second half regression seems to be in the cards for Narvaez, Toro and Gonzalez. 

[harmony]

The San Diego Padres reportedly have shown interest in lefthand-hitting outfielders Jarren Duran and Steven Kwan, who provide interesting comps.

Duran is a year older than Kwan (they share a September 5 birthday) but Duran has three more years of team control working off his 2025 salary of $3.85 million while Kwan has only two more years of team control working off his 2025 salary of $4.18 million.

Duran has posted 13.0 bWAR and 11.3 fWAR in 460 career games, including 3.0 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 107 games this year.

Kwan has posted 16.0 bWAR and 14.6 fWAR in 528 career games, including 3.1 bWAR and 2.7 fWAR in 101 game this year.

Duran has a career OPS+ of 114, including has a career an OPS+ of 114 this year, while Kwan has a career OPS+ of 114, including an OPS+ of 110 this year.

Duran was an All Star in 2024 while Kwan is a two-time All Star who won a Gold Glove in each of his first three seasons.

Baseball Trade Values assigns Duran a surplus value of $55.4 million and Kwan a surplus value of $52.4 million.

Which player is a more attractive option for the Padres?