Article: 4 Teams That Could Trade For Jarren Duran Or Wilyer Abreu

[Maxbialystock]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I didn't say he was awful. I just said there are other players on the Sox that are playing better. The Sox are 7th in Batting fWAR so they have everyday players that are playing well. Duran is having an ok season, but he's not playing as well as Rafaela or Abreu IMO. I'd also rather take a chance on high variance Anthony than Duran. 

Duran has value across the league. If they wanted to move him, there are probably 10+ teams they could trade him to today. 

Agree with who you want to keep.   

However, I also think the Sox must get value in return.  So, if Abreu gets better value in return, I would trade him in heartbeat.  By value I mean good arms, bullpen and/or starter.  

This is an excellent topic because I think the Sox need to do something when Abreu gets back, which should be next week.   When Bregman returns in July, another move has to be made.  

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Great link.  Thanks.

How credible do you believe Bowden's information to be?  It reminded me of off-season articles where writers speculate because they don't know anything, so they guess what they think is logical and it usually never happens.  What's your take?

With Abreu being so obvious as the weak link since he can't hit lefties, I would like to think Breslow has more smarts than to lose their only lead-off man.  Five years ago, when Mookie was ousted the team struggled for years to find a lead-off man replacement.  They finally got one who becomes an all-star and they trade him because Cora assigned him left field in Fenway as the fasted outfielder in the group?   Abreu should have been in left field from the beginning and Rafaela in Right Field with his arm and incredible defense.  FYI... Rafaela's DRS in 2024 was good enough to beat Abreu for the gold glove.  Duran's DRS in CF in 2024 was also better than Abreu's GG DRS in right field.  Duran has 10 errors in LF in less than half the total chances he's had in CF and 2 in 550 total chances in CF.  Duran should never have been moved from CF; Abreu's skills dictate his need to be the left fielder until Anthony arrives and steps into the shoes of Yaz and Teddy Ballgame.

If we got a vote, I'd vote Abreu.  It's a no brainer with his key limitation of not hitting lefties!! (the Red Sox face left-handed pitchers 40% of the time!!).

[Maxbialystock]

11 hours ago, notin said:

I’d rather bench Story or include him in the Duran package…

Disagree.  He sure ain't earning his salary, but I still like his consistency at SS or 2B.   It's his hitting that is the problem, which of course means the Sox will have to pay a percentage of his salary wherever he goes.  His OPS in 10 games this month is .870.  

I think our best infield is Bregman, Mayer, Story, and Toro with Campbell and/or Gonzalez and/or Hamilton as backups.  

[Maxbialystock]

14 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Great link.  Thanks.

How credible do you believe Bowden's information to be?  It reminded me of off-season articles where writers speculate because they don't know anything, so they guess what they think is logical and it usually never happens.  What's your take?

With Abreu being so obvious as the weak link since he can't hit lefties, I would like to think Breslow has more smarts than to lose their only lead-off man.  Five years ago, when Mookie was ousted the team struggled for years to find a lead-off man replacement.  They finally got one who becomes an all-star and they trade him because Cora assigned him left field in Fenway as the fasted outfielder in the group?   Abreu should have been in left field from the beginning and Rafaela in Right Field with his arm and incredible defense.  FYI... Rafaela's DRS in 2024 was good enough to beat Abreu for the gold glove.  Duran's DRS in CF in 2024 was also better than Abreu's GG DRS in right field.  Duran has 10 errors in LF in less than half the total chances he's had in CF and 2 in 550 total chances in CF.  Duran should never have been moved from CF; Abreu's skills dictate his need to be the left fielder until Anthony arrives and steps into the shoes of Yaz and Teddy Ballgame.

If we got a vote, I'd vote Abreu.  It's a no brainer with his key limitation of not hitting lefties!! (the Red Sox face left-handed pitchers 40% of the time!!).

Guess what?  Abreu may not hit lefties, but the Sox do.  Against righties their OPS is .742 and against lefties .787.  They also have had just 648 at bats vs lefties and almost three times as many, 1796, against righties.  

I honestly don't have a preference between Duran and Abreu.  I would trade the one that gets the Sox the best value in return.  

[TedYazPapiMookie]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You can question Cora's integrity. You can't call another poster a child as you did in your previous post. 

 

10 hours ago, drewski6 said:

IM not as anti trading Duran as I was a month ago, but Im still pretty solidly against it.

 

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

We have different definitions on what a leadoff hitter can be. That's fine. He's replaceable to me, but not to you.

 

I only think he is irreplaceable because that is what actually happened in Boston for several years until he settled in at the lead-off spot.  Is he Mookie or Ohtani, no!!!  But who is?  Compare him to all the lead-off men in the MLB and list the one that made the all-star team last year and was MVP of the game.  He has the skills but has gotten off to a bad start.  A bad streak isn't the same as a bad player!!

Now name me someone better than your two examples.  I don't think there is anyone so that's a tough comparison especially in light of the fact that we had Mookie and gave him away.

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

We don't tolerate personal attacks because the history of this site shows us that behavior leads to a very toxic environment for the entire site. Good posters leave when the site becomes toxic. We haven't been a very strict site, but saying "don't call each other names" should be easy enough to follow. It shows that you value the other posters as an equal no matter what you are currently disagreeing about. If you believe that this rule is garbage, you need to post somewhere else. 

 

6 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

The goal should always be to win the division or, at the very least, to make the playoffs. And this year's edition of the Red Sox absolutely has enough talent to do that  There is something seriously wrong with the attitude of a Sox fan who wants to abandon ship in the month of June. 

 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree with who you want to keep.   

However, I also think the Sox must get value in return.  So, if Abreu gets better value in return, I would trade him in heartbeat.  By value I mean good arms, bullpen and/or starter.  

This is an excellent topic because I think the Sox need to do something when Abreu gets back, which should be next week.   When Bregman returns in July, another move has to be made.  

Duran and Abreu are close enough that I wouldn't be frustrated if they traded one over the other. I just believe there's more long term value in keeping Abreu. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Great link.  Thanks.

How credible do you believe Bowden's information to be? 

Bowden has very little credibility ever since he has been out of an MLB front office. He knows about as much as you or me. 

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

 

 

I only think he is irreplaceable because that is what actually happened in Boston for several years until he settled in at the lead-off spot.  Is he Mookie or Ohtani, no!!!  But who is?  Compare him to all the lead-off men in the MLB and list the one that made the all-star team last year and was MVP of the game.  He has the skills but has gotten off to a bad start.  A bad streak isn't the same as a bad player!!

Now name me someone better than your two examples.  I don't think there is anyone so that's a tough comparison especially in light of the fact that we had Mookie and gave him away.

 

 

Is O'Neill Cruz a classic leadoff hitter? Ian Happ? There are lots of guys hitting leadoff that aren't your classic leadoff type guys. I think that was my point, not that I was ranking the leadoff hitters better than Duran.

[Hugh2]

12 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Great link.  Thanks.

How credible do you believe Bowden's information to be?  It reminded me of off-season articles where writers speculate because they don't know anything, so they guess what they think is logical and it usually never happens.  What's your take?

With Abreu being so obvious as the weak link since he can't hit lefties, I would like to think Breslow has more smarts than to lose their only lead-off man.  Five years ago, when Mookie was ousted the team struggled for years to find a lead-off man replacement.  They finally got one who becomes an all-star and they trade him because Cora assigned him left field in Fenway as the fasted outfielder in the group?   Abreu should have been in left field from the beginning and Rafaela in Right Field with his arm and incredible defense.  FYI... Rafaela's DRS in 2024 was good enough to beat Abreu for the gold glove.  Duran's DRS in CF in 2024 was also better than Abreu's GG DRS in right field.  Duran has 10 errors in LF in less than half the total chances he's had in CF and 2 in 550 total chances in CF.  Duran should never have been moved from CF; Abreu's skills dictate his need to be the left fielder until Anthony arrives and steps into the shoes of Yaz and Teddy Ballgame.

If we got a vote, I'd vote Abreu.  It's a no brainer with his key limitation of not hitting lefties!! (the Red Sox face left-handed pitchers 40% of the time!!).

It's not like Duran is much better at hitting lefties.  He has a .634 OPS vs. them this year.  

Whoever is traded for them is opening up a roster spot for Anthony, and who remains likely forfeits at bats vs. lefties anyways.  Or at least should be. 

Sox may trade who brings back the better return. 

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It's not like Duran is much better at hitting lefties.  He has a .634 OPS vs. them this year.  

Whoever is traded for them is opening up a roster spot for Anthony, and who remains likely forfeits at bats vs. lefties anyways.  Or at least should be. 

Sox may trade who brings back the better return. 

BTV strongly suggests Duran brings back the better return with his surplus value of $62.5 million over Abreu’s &43.4 million.  While these numbers might be arguably high, I do think Duran is the better all around player.

Abreu’s appeal over Duran (besides defense) is the cheaper salary and longer control. Since Abreu is still pre-arb and making league minimum, teams like Pitt, Sacra-Vegas, KC, Tampa, etc. that have financial concerns might be more interested in Abreu than Duran…

 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV strongly suggests Duran brings back the better return with his surplus value of $62.5 million over Abreu’s &43.4 million.  While these numbers might be arguably high, I do think Duran is the better all around player.

Abreu’s appeal over Duran (besides defense) is the cheaper salary and longer control. Since Abreu is still pre-arb and making league minimum, teams like Pitt, Sacra-Vegas, KC, Tampa, etc. that have financial concerns might be more interested in Abreu than Duran…

 

I'm not disagreeing with that, I'd figure that to be the case, but BTV isn't exactly an exact science.  There's probably teams out there who value Abreu more than the value Duran.   We don't really know how other teams view our guys, and a lot of the teams who might pay the steepest price are not in buyers mode yet. 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Is O'Neill Cruz a classic leadoff hitter? Ian Happ? There are lots of guys hitting leadoff that aren't your classic leadoff type guys. I think that was my point, not that I was ranking the leadoff hitters better than Duran.

How classical of a leadoff hitter can you be when you have a career .295 OBP vs. LHP.  

Should Duran even be leading off vs. LHP?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

How classical of a leadoff hitter can you be when you have a career .295 OBP vs. LHP.  

Should Duran even be leading off vs. LHP?

I'm not sure I want him PLAYING against LHP. I'd rather Anthony in there. He doesn't need to POST like Cora wants him to. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Is O'Neill Cruz a classic leadoff hitter? Ian Happ? There are lots of guys hitting leadoff that aren't your classic leadoff type guys. I think that was my point, not that I was ranking the leadoff hitters better than Duran.

OK.  Understood.  Then, if you profile the players on the team who maintains a high average, high OBP, great speed and is an excellent base runner who can steal?  That's what Duran's been doing the last couple of years.  His slump this season is over and his average has climbed from .195 after the 9th game of the season to .271 where he has been for roughly 3 weeks.  He's hit .285 and .295 the last two years and that has been the highest average of any starter during both seasons. 

This year, even with the horrendous start, Duran is now only behind Toro a part time player, Gonzalez a part time player, Bregman, Refsnyder a platoon player, Narvaez the catcher and Devers (.276 to .271).  He is still the best lead-off man on the roster so if we trade him we need to return a lead-off man or we'll need to use Rafaela or Campbell until they develop into one.  We have other young candidates as well but I think allowing Campbell, Mayer and Anthony to develop as players not lead-off men makes sense.

I'm not against getting another lead-off man but I don't see anyone on this roster other than Rafaela who fits the general make-up of a lead-off man.  His issue is a huge one, his average isn't one of the best on the team yet, so I don't see him as a good fit now.  As he develops, maybe.  He's fast, a good base runner but he needs more power to be balanced like Duran.  

If we could trade for Cruz or Happ, great.  But if we are picking from the current roster, the cupboard is bare.

[notin]

15 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Disagree.  He sure ain't earning his salary, but I still like his consistency at SS or 2B.   It's his hitting that is the problem, which of course means the Sox will have to pay a percentage of his salary wherever he goes.  His OPS in 10 games this month is .870.  

I think our best infield is Bregman, Mayer, Story, and Toro with Campbell and/or Gonzalez and/or Hamilton as backups.  

Despite the lack of experience, I’d rather see Campbell start at 2b over Story.  Story’s future in Boston is getting murkier since he isn’t anywhere near the player he was in Colorado, likely due to age, injuries, and, well, leaving Colorado.  Maybe he can take over 3b next year if Bregman opts out?

Campbell isn’t hitting much better, but he at least has the potential to improve. In order to tap into that potential, he needs to play every day.

Atlanta needs a SS.  Send them Story and some cash for something of potential use, preferably a pitcher, although I don’t consider that likely unless it's the injured Reynaldo Lopez.  
 

They do have Sean Murphy in a similar position to Story - owed some $60mill and blocking the rising star (Drake Baldwin, in this case), but I’d be surprised if that deal went down.  BTV values Murphy much, much more than Story, which means the projection sites do as well. If Atlanta uses those sites, why would they make that deal?

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

OK.  Understood.  Then, if you profile the players on the team who maintains a high average, high OBP, great speed and is an excellent base runner who can steal?  That's what Duran's been doing the last couple of years.  His slump this season is over and his average has climbed from .195 after the 9th game of the season to .271 where he has been for roughly 3 weeks.  He's hit .285 and .295 the last two years and that has been the highest average of any starter during both seasons. 

Red Sox starters with a higher OBP since 2023:

Bregman

Refsnyder (210 G)

Devers

Narvaez

Toro

Casas

Turner

Yoshida

OBP is more important than batting average for a leadoff guy. That Duran had a similar OBP to Tyler O'Neill, isn't quite a ringing endorsement. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox starters with a higher OBP since 2023:

Bregman

Refsnyder (210 G)

Devers

Narvaez

Toro

Casas

Turner

Yoshida

OBP is more important than batting average for a leadoff guy. That Duran had a similar OBP to Tyler O'Neill, isn't quite a ringing endorsement. 

I'm a OBP supporter too.  This list doesn't include anyone who is a full-time player that fits the description of a lead-off man leaving Duran still the best option unless they trade for one.  Bregman's and Devers' OBP make them perfect for the 2nd and 3rd holes.  I would use Bregman 2 and Devers 3 using traditional line-up thinking.  I want Devers to have as many men on base as possible since he swings for the fences on every pitch.  

[TedYazPapiMookie]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure I want him PLAYING against LHP. I'd rather Anthony in there. He doesn't need to POST like Cora wants him to. 

Duran is hitting .281 and .246 versus RH and LH pitchers.  His OBP is .342 and .309 vs RH and LH pitchers.

Any mid-season cherry picked stat is irrelevant since he isn't being evaluated as a point in time, it's about total performance in a season.  That's incredibly shortsighted by the fans who don't get why a season matters more than a hot or cold segment in a season as it was mentioned above.

Once again, the lead-off spot failed miserably until Duran got the job and he's done well and there is no better alternative on the team and both Anthony and Duran need to play when a lefty pitches because Abreu can't hit lefties at all.  It's not a small differential like with Duran, it's huge.

Put Anthony in LF and bat him 5th from now on.  He's only fifth because Devers is 3rd and still deserves to be batting before Anthony.  That pushes Mayer to 7th. 

So Duran is 1st in CF, Devers 3rd at DH, Anthony 5th in LF, Mayer 7th at SS.  That puts Bregman 2nd at 3B, Toro 4th at 1B, Narvaez 6th at C and Campbell 8th at 2B.  Rafaela is 9th in RF.  While Bregman is out Story should be the 3B but when Bregman returns he backs up Mayer and Campbell.  Gonzalez backs up Bregman and Toro and Wong backs up Narvaez while Abreu backs up all three outfield spots where he has played nearly equally in the minors.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Duran is hitting .281 and .246 versus RH and LH pitchers.  His OBP is .342 and .309 vs RH and LH pitchers.

Any mid-season cherry picked stat is irrelevant since he isn't being evaluated as a point in time, it's about total performance in a season.  That's incredibly shortsighted by the fans who don't get why a season matters more than a hot or cold segment in a season as it was mentioned above.

Once again, the lead-off spot failed miserably until Duran got the job and he's done well and there is no better alternative on the team and both Anthony and Duran need to play when a lefty pitches because Abreu can't hit lefties at all.  It's not a small differential like with Duran, it's huge.

Put Anthony in LF and bat him 5th from now on.  He's only fifth because Devers is 3rd and still deserves to be batting before Anthony.  That pushes Mayer to 7th. 

So Duran is 1st in CF, Devers 3rd at DH, Anthony 5th in LF, Mayer 7th at SS.  That puts Bregman 2nd at 3B, Toro 4th at 1B, Narvaez 6th at C and Campbell 8th at 2B.  Rafaela is 9th in RF.  While Bregman is out Story should be the 3B but when Bregman returns he backs up Mayer and Campbell.  Gonzalez backs up Bregman and Toro and Wong backs up Narvaez while Abreu backs up all three outfield spots where he has played nearly equally in the minors.

Duran is being evaluated in a point in time. He’s been mid all season. He hasn’t been the irreplaceable leadoff guy some are calling him.

[Larry Cook]

The Red Sox signed Duran to a weird contract this preseason. I cannot imagine the Red Sox did not know Anthony was coming quickly when they did that deal???

[TedYazPapiMookie]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran is being evaluated in a point in time. He’s been mid all season. He hasn’t been the irreplaceable leadoff guy some are calling him.

Actually, that's exactly what he's been.  There hasn't been one person that you have suggested that could replace him and have the body of work he's had.  There was Mookie before him but nobody in between.  Disliking the guy is your prerogative but if there is nobody waiting in the wings that can do as good of a job, he is irreplaceable by definition.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 6/13/2025 at 11:35 PM, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Actually, that's exactly what he's been.  There hasn't been one person that you have suggested that could replace him and have the body of work he's had.  There was Mookie before him but nobody in between.  Disliking the guy is your prerogative but if there is nobody waiting in the wings that can do as good of a job, he is irreplaceable by definition.

As far as the article goes, SD has the only stated need for Duran because he's an all star and they want the upgrade.  Abreu wasn't mentioned because they already have Wade and he's better than Abreu if you make Abreu bat against LH pitchers.  STL, PHI and KC don't have a need for either of the players, especially Philly.  KC is set in the outfield and STL is too.  In fact, STL is like BOS with too many.  

There is no big demand for either Boston outfielder, it's a big need by Boston to trim back Abreu so Anthony has a place to play even if he hits under .100.  Duran simply needs to move to CF where his fielding percentage is outstanding and Rafaela needs to move to right because he doesn't have the yips like Abreu and is faster with a better glove and comparable arm.  Anthony needs to step in the shoes of YAZ and TED in LF.  Abreu needs to be traded so Refsnyder can be the 4th outfielder.

Breslow needs to package player to see if he can off load some future payroll, even if it's only a partial off load.  Yoshida has nowhere to play just like Abreu.

[Larry Cook]

I think there is decent demand for Duran! 
 

but Duran is only going to be able to get us a reliever and maybe a prospect! 
 

However if we add fitts and another quality prospect to Duran, I think we can get alcanterra from Miami 

[moonslav59]

On 6/12/2025 at 10:42 AM, mvp 78 said:

Painter for Duran? Breslow would jump at that so fast. 

What would we have to add to that deal to get Painter?

What would we have to add to Painter to get Skenes?

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think there is decent demand for Duran! 
 

but Duran is only going to be able to get us a reliever and maybe a prospect! 
 

However if we add fitts and another quality prospect to Duran, I think we can get alcanterra from Miami 

Duran would bring back more than that.

His "off year" is still heading towards a 2.5+ WAR season.

He's still 7th highest in fWAR since 2024 at 6.7.

He's got speed and many years of control.

[Deja Doh]

Wilyer is good.  He gets on base and plays D.  He needs to remain in Right.  If Duran's defense was better center field would be better than Rafaela but he's also go to be a FA after next year.  

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

Wilyer is good.  He gets on base and plays D.  He needs to remain in Right.  If Duran's defense was better center field would be better than Rafaela but he's also go to be a FA after next year.  

Duran is a FA after 2028. You are two years off.

[moonslav59]

Don't mess with the ABreu-Ref RF platoon. When Ref retires, we can deal with our excess OF by having one move to RF, those games.

Rafaela seems to be hitting well enough to stay our FT CF'er, until he proves he can't.

Anthony is not going to be traded, now should he, unless he's part of a Skenes trade.

That leaves Duran. I have nothing against him. His speed is such a big plus, maybe he should be ranked ahead of Rafaela or Abreu, but our D would suffer a lot by trading one of them over Duran, despite the belief, by many, that Duran is a plus defender. (Duran cannot play RF. Rafaela might be the best defensive CF BOS has ever seen. That's no knock on Jarren.)

[Larry Cook]

Duran and pieces gives us an opportunity to acquire a quality starter! 
 

If the kids can hit, we are positioned well for long term success