A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To some extent, the Sox offense always has to be viewed with the Fenway Park influence factored in. It's not Colorado, but the Sox Home and Away splits are always wide apart.

Context is always needed.

Great breakdown. Usually, the Red Sox offense at Fenway has always learned how to take advantage of The Monster -- and not for homers.

An article comparing the impact of rookie debuts for Anthony and Fred Lynn shows the latter tailored his swing early for easy opposite-field doubles, averaging 43 per season in his Beantown career. Wade Boggs, another lefty batting champ, was even better with 45 per.

Research also shows this: the last time Boston didn't lead the league in team doubles was 2017. 

Yes, even in all those crappy last place seasons, the Sox had more doubles than anyone... this will be the eighth straight year they are Two-Bag Kings. Just wait until Anthony starts regularly feasting off the wall.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Great breakdown. Usually, the Red Sox offense at Fenway has always learned how to take advantage of The Monster -- and not for homers.

An article comparing the impact of rookie debuts for Anthony and Fred Lynn shows the latter tailored his swing early for easy opposite-field doubles, averaging 43 per season in his Beantown career. Wade Boggs, another lefty batting champ, was even better with 45 per.

Research also shows this: the last time Boston didn't lead the league in team doubles was 2017. 

Yes, even in all those crappy last place seasons, the Sox had more doubles than anyone... this will be the eighth straight year they are Two-Bag Kings. Just wait until Anthony starts regularly feasting off the wall.

I've hesitated invoking Fred Lynn's name when talking about Anthony, but it's hard not to see the similarity in impacts both have made to the team, almost instantly.

Lynn literally broke his back by playing all out to win. I'm not sure Anthony fits that mold, but he quietly does what it takes to get the Sox to a win, and then another and another...

[Maxbialystock]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've hesitated invoking Fred Lynn's name when talking about Anthony, but it's hard not to see the similarity in impacts both have made to the team, almost instantly.

Lynn literally broke his back by playing all out to win. I'm not sure Anthony fits that mold, but he quietly does what it takes to get the Sox to a win, and then another and another...

My impression is that Anthony is a good outfielder, but determined to avoid injury--because his hitting benefits the team far more than his defense. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

My impression is that Anthony is a good outfielder, but determined to avoid injury--because his hitting benefits the team far more than his defense. 

I'm fine with his defense and effort.

I agree on him needing to not get hurt.

I wish Mayer had avoided injury, although DHam is carrying the load at 2B, like nobody else has, all year. (Small sample size, yes.)

Have we found temporary fixes for 2B and 1B?

[Maxbialystock]

My realistic view of the 2025 Sox is that they are in a good spot but with a lot of work still to be done. 

Their hitting is suspect and the pitching is not.  

Last night they added a 5th starter, Tolle, who, despite his pitch limitation, makes this the best Sox rotation in decades.   Weissert stunk last night, but overall the bullpen has been good. 

But the hitting/scoring in August has not been good.   Abreu will be out maybe another 2 weeks.  Lowe is on paternity leave.  Bregman is in a slump (OPS .768 in August), and so are Gonazlez (.702), Duran (.689), Yoshida (.619), Rafaela (.591), and Wong/Narvaez (.591/.513), 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with his defense and effort.

I agree on him needing to not get hurt.

I wish Mayer had avoided injury, although DHam is carrying the load at 2B, like nobody else has, all year. (Small sample size, yes.)

Have we found temporary fixes for 2B and 1B?

Mayer's wrist was waiting to go bad.  He should have had surgery the first time 2 or 3 years ago.  I agree his loss is significant.  He sure wasn't hitting lefties, but his righty OPS was .739 and his defense excellent in just 44 games.  

Hamilton's August OPS is an insane 1.076 and he is our best defensive 2b.    He and Gonzalez are a good fix at 2b and, when he returns, Lowe is at 1b.  

In 67 games Anthony's WAR is an insane 3.1.   As you predicted, he has tied Bregman in OPS and should go right past him in the Pirates series.  His one "flaw" is that he doesn't hit the green monster enough.  

 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

My realistic view of the 2025 Sox is that they are in a good spot but with a lot of work still to be done. 

Their hitting is suspect and the pitching is not.  

Last night they added a 5th starter, Tolle, who, despite his pitch limitation, makes this the best Sox rotation in decades.   Weissert stunk last night, but overall the bullpen has been good. 

But the hitting/scoring in August has not been good.   Abreu will be out maybe another 2 weeks.  Lowe is on paternity leave.  Bregman is in a slump (OPS .768 in August), and so are Gonazlez (.702), Duran (.689), Yoshida (.619), Rafaela (.591), and Wong/Narvaez (.591/.513), 

 

 

I'm hopeful we filled some high need  areas over the season:

Anthony add to the offense ahet the Devers trade took away.

Tolle provides hope for a SP'er beyond our top 3 studs. (May looks better than Buehler, newcob, Houck and some others)

Slaten provides hope for the pen depth we need.

Lowe looks like a viable 1B solution (w Romy as the platoon)

DHam is playing well, again, and offers some hope at making 2B passable.

Wong is hitting better.

There are still some concerns, like 5th starter, pen depth & 2B.

[Maxbialystock]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm hopeful we filled some high need  areas over the season:

Anthony add to the offense ahet the Devers trade took away.

Tolle provides hope for a SP'er beyond our top 3 studs. (May looks better than Buehler, newcob, Houck and some others)

Slaten provides hope for the pen depth we need.

Lowe looks like a viable 1B solution (w Romy as the platoon)

DHam is playing well, again, and offers some hope at making 2B passable.

Wong is hitting better.

There are still some concerns, like 5th starter, pen depth & 2B.

To me the only real concern is the hitting/scoring.  

Season to date the Sox overall OPS is .748 and with RISP it's .746.  With runners on base it's .756.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

To me the only real concern is the hitting/scoring.  

Season to date the Sox overall OPS is .748 and with RISP it's .746.  With runners on base it's .756.

Recently, yes, but every area has had ebbs and flows. The defense and baserunning has had stretches of bone head plays. The pen had a mid season meltdown. The back end starters have been awful, pretty much all year, except for a few starts by Dobbins, Fitts and now one by Tolle. The bats have been a rollercoatser.

[mvp 78]

Chapman extended?

 

[mvp 78]

[Jasonbay44]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Chapman extended?

 

Per MLB trade runors

 

The Red Sox have agreed to an extension with left-hander Aroldis Chapman that will keep the star reliever in town for the 2026 season, according to a report from Francys Romero of BeisbolFR. Romero adds that the deal includes an option for the 2027 season, which Chris Cotillo of MassLive adds is a vesting/mutual option. The total guarantee of the deal and the specifics of the 2027 option are not yet known, but Cotillo adds that Chapman will earn “around” $13MM in 2026.

 

[moonslav59]

I love the 2027 option, too....whatever it is.

[moonslav59]

We need to take care of business, today. The Yanks are surging. SEA is playing well. TOR is trying their hardest to make the ALE a 3 way race.

Our strength of schedule looks harder than others, but we seem to be beating the better teams more than the worse ones, recently.

Starting today, we have a good chance at gaining on 1-2 teams. Next series:

NYY @ HOU (both are WC competition)

TOR @ CIN (a .500 team in div w MIL & CHC)

SEA @ TBR (SEA is 3-0 v TBR, this year)

CLE @ BOS (CLE is no pushover)

 

[moonslav59]

He just passed HOU by a half game and are a half game behind NYY, now. Pretty amazing being 1/2 behind the third best record in the AL and 3.5 from 2nd best (TOR.) We are 4 GB the best record in the AL (DET)

On the flip side, we are 5.5 Games ahead on KCR & TEX for being on the outside of the playoffs. We are 6.5 Games ahead of the 7th worst team in the AL (CLE.)

Next 3 series:

BOS: 3 v CLE, 3 at ARI & ATH

TOR: 3 at CIN (over .500) & 3 at NYY & 3 v HOU

NYY: 3 at HOU, 3 v TOR & DET

These 9 games could really shuffle the deck. Someone has to lose when these guys play each other, and if TOR and NYY romp, then HOU and DET will likely fall.

HOU: 1 LAA, 3 NYY, 3 at TEX & TOR (not easy, either)

SEA: 3 at TBR & ATL and 3 v STL (Not too hard)

For the best record in the AL:

DET: 3 v NYM & CWS and 3 at NYY

I'm not too worried about KCR and TEX.

KCR has a 13 game stretch, later of 4 at CLE and 3 at PHI, then 3 v SEA & 3 v TOR.

TEX may be out of it in 12 games: 3 v HOU, 3 v MIL & 3 at NYM & HOU

[Larry Cook]

Current bullpen 

Chapman - reliable 

Whitlock -reliable 

matz - reliable 

slaten - returning from injury, but usually reliable 

Wilson - usually reliable 

Bernardino - arm has a lot of miles on it. Semi reliable ???

weissert - arm has a ton of miles on it. Not reliable 

hicks - has improved from dumpster fire to not reliable!!!!

gurerro is on rehab assignment!  Murphy and kelly are desperation injury replacements in Worcester 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Current bullpen 

Chapman - reliable 

Whitlock -reliable 

matz - reliable 

slaten - returning from injury, but usually reliable 

Wilson - usually reliable 

Bernardino - arm has a lot of miles on it. Semi reliable ???

weissert - arm has a ton of miles on it. Not reliable 

hicks - has improved from dumpster fire to not reliable!!!!

gurerro is on rehab assignment!  Murphy and kelly are desperation injury replacements in Worcester 

Wilson has not been too good for a month or two. 

Bernardino has 49 IP. He should be fine.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Red Sox just went 17-11 in August.

First winning record in August since 2019. 

Most August wins since 2018, when the eventual curse-breakers went 18-9.

76 wins with 24 games left. Playoffs are likely with a 12-12 split, but nobody wants to play an entire three-game wild card series in the Bronx.

The next dozen games could be key for Boston to get ahead of New York. The Sox host Cleveland, then travel to Arizona and Sacramento, before returning to Fenway with a showdown vs. the Yanks. None will be easy -- at least any we think will be -- but it's vital to win now because the Yankees finally have to play contenders with legitimate pitching staffs: Houston, Toronto, Detroit and then Boston...

The last dozen lines up patsies for NY, while the Sox finish with stronger opponents and spoilers...

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

On 8/30/2025 at 12:42 PM, moonslav59 said:

I've hesitated invoking Fred Lynn's name when talking about Anthony, but it's hard not to see the similarity in impacts both have made to the team, almost instantly.

Lynn literally broke his back by playing all out to win. I'm not sure Anthony fits that mold, but he quietly does what it takes to get the Sox to a win, and then another and another...

I keep coming back to Fred Lynn when I see Anthony hit as well.  He does not play the outfield like Lynn and so far is not the hitter but there are similarities for sure.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I keep coming back to Fred Lynn when I see Anthony hit as well.  He does not play the outfield like Lynn and so far is not the hitter but there are similarities for sure.  

In his rookie year, Lynn led the league in runs scored, doubles and slugging, with a 14.9 K-rate.

It was a different era: the only Red Sox batter with a worse K-rate in 1975 was Jim Rice, at 19.9... Denny Doyle's for Boston was 3.3. Overall, in his 17-year career, Lynn averaged 25 HRs a year with a 14.1 K-rate. 

A lot of fans may not want to hear this or read it, but Roman Anthony just tied Trevor Story for the worst K-rate on the club among all regulars: 27.8. 

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A lot of fans may not want to hear this or read it, but Roman Anthony just tied Trevor Story for the worst K-rate on the club among all regulars: 27.8. 

The good news is that Anthony's walk rate is about half of his K rate. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I keep coming back to Fred Lynn when I see Anthony hit as well.  He does not play the outfield like Lynn and so far is not the hitter but there are similarities for sure.  

Although high K rates never bother me, as long as the batter produces, there is a big difference in this area.

Anthony's sample size is small but he did K a lot in the minors, too:

82 Ks in 295 PAs (27.8%) and a .397 OBP/.466 SLG

In 1975, Fred Lynn K'd 90 times in 605 PAs (14.9%- just over half Roman's rate) with a .401 OBP (nearly the same) and a .566 SLG (100 pts higher.)

The fact that both came up and helped their teams become instant contenders is the major similarity.

[moonslav59]

I've always felt like I'd take a 50% K-Rate as long as the guy produces.

Anthony gets on base nearly 40% of the time and hits enough homers to average about 18 per 650. He'd also hit about 40 doubles at this pace.

The K's don't bother me, at all.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've always felt like I'd take a 50% K-Rate as long as the guy produces.

Anthony gets on base nearly 40% of the time and hits enough homers to average about 18 per 650. He'd also hit about 40 doubles at this pace.

The K's don't bother me, at all.

Not even with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs? While I can't say for sure, I'd bet that bothers a lot of fans watching from home or in the cramped seats of Fenway. 

LOBsters striking out is a job requirement for Red Sox batters in the 2020s. Modern pitching may be harder to hit than ever -- (unless you ask every single Hall of Famer still alive) -- but batters with a two-strike mindset of making contact is a choice of practice.

Lynn, a lefty swinger, intentionally feasted on the Green Monster. We all know Duran is better when his focus is on going oppo. Anthony has shown he can do it, too -- but he's yet to make a consistent adjustment to look away down in the count, and it has led to a ton of Ks lately.

Lynn really only had two great seasons where he was the best hitter in the league. But he made the All-Star team nine straight years. If Anthony can replicate that, we'd all take it.

Ted Williams was also tall and a left-handed hitter. But he averaged 8.6 WAR for 19 years, and missed 5 primetime seasons serving in the military. BB-Reference considers 8+ WAR as "MVP Quality"... but Ted: every season for 19 years?!?!?

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not even with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs? While I can't say for sure, I'd bet that bothers a lot of fans watching from home or in the cramped seats of Fenway. 

LOBsters striking out is a job requirement for Red Sox batters in the 2020s. Modern pitching may be harder to hit than ever -- (unless you ask every single Hall of Famer still alive) -- but batters with a two-strike mindset of making contact is a choice of practice.

Lynn, a lefty swinger, intentionally feasted on the Green Monster. We all know Duran is better when his focus is on going oppo. Anthony has shown he can do it, too -- but he's yet to make a consistent adjustment to look away down in the count, and it has led to a ton of Ks lately.

Lynn really only had two great seasons where he was the best hitter in the league. But he made the All-Star team nine straight years. If Anthony can replicate that, we'd all take it.

Ted Williams was also tall and a left-handed hitter. But he averaged 8.6 WAR for 19 years, and missed 5 primetime seasons serving in the military. BB-Reference considers 8+ WAR as "MVP Quality"... but Ted: every season for 19 years?!?!?

Of course a K bothers me in situations you mentioned, and maybe a little more than a weak pop up to the infield or short OF or a ground out that fails to score the run. 

Yes, putting the ball in play sometimes advances a runner, but give me a .390+ OBP and .390+ SLG, and I'll take a 100% of all outs as Ks.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Lynn, a lefty swinger, intentionally feasted on the Green Monster. We all know Duran is better when his focus is on going oppo. Anthony has shown he can do it, too -- but he's yet to make a consistent adjustment to look away down in the count, and it has led to a ton of Ks lately.

Lynn really only had two great seasons where he was the best hitter in the league. But he made the All-Star team nine straight years. If Anthony can replicate that, we'd all take it.

Ted Williams was also tall and a left-handed hitter. But he averaged 8.6 WAR for 19 years, and missed 5 primetime seasons serving in the military. BB-Reference considers 8+ WAR as "MVP Quality"... but Ted: every season for 19 years?!?!?

The injuries really hurt Lynn's career. It sucks, because most were caused by his all out drive to win and "make the play." I admire that and always felt he'd have put up enormous offensive numbers had he not near-literally broken his back for his team.

[moonslav59]

The AL East is still very much up for grabs. NYY has two more games to play and TOR one more, so we have more days off to better plan our starting rotation.

79-59 TOR --

76-61 NYY -2.5

77-62 BOS -2.5

As the games remaining clock keeps ticking away, TEX, KCR & CLE see their chances growing tougher and tougher.

NYY & BOS +3 on SEA (the 3rd WC team) and +5.5 on TEX, +6.0 on KCR and +7.5 on CLE.

Ultimately, finishing above the Yanks would be sweet, but getting a top 2 record in the AL means no 3 game series.

The way it's set up, if the season ended now, it would be BOS NYY with the winner facing DET and SEA-HOU with the winner facing TOR.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

In his rookie year, Lynn led the league in runs scored, doubles and slugging, with a 14.9 K-rate.

It was a different era: the only Red Sox batter with a worse K-rate in 1975 was Jim Rice, at 19.9... Denny Doyle's for Boston was 3.3. Overall, in his 17-year career, Lynn averaged 25 HRs a year with a 14.1 K-rate. 

A lot of fans may not want to hear this or read it, but Roman Anthony just tied Trevor Story for the worst K-rate on the club among all regulars: 27.8. 

Oh I'm not comparing their stats, as I said Lynn was a better hitter and fielder.  I just said he reminds me of Lynn.  

[moonslav59]

We have 9 players on the 60 Day IL with maybe Guerrero as one of two who might play in 2025 (est Sept 3rd and maybe Wink Sept 4th.)

Houck- out until 2027

Crawford, Dobbins, Sandoval and Wink by opening day.

Casas & Mayer by opening day.

Perales by opening day, but has yet to pitch in MLB.

Hendriks is a FA, after 2025, so bye-bye Liam.

10 & 15 Day ILs:

Abreu (Sept 5?)

Fitts (Sept 10th?)

Criswell (???)

Grissom (???)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Oh I'm not comparing their stats, as I said Lynn was a better hitter and fielder.  I just said he reminds me of Lynn.  

I felt the same.