A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I never said that anyone was written off.

You often sound like you are writing off players that are struggling with very little slack given.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

You often sound like you are writing off players that are struggling with very little slack given.

No, I didn't say anything regarding a particular player. 

I simply questioned your assertation that this was a top tier team on the verge of a championship.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

No, I didn't say anything regarding a particular player. 

I simply questioned your assertation that this was a top tier team on the verge of a championship.

I'm talking about your history or being negative towards players, the team and just about everything that has to do with the Sox.

I never said this team was on the verge of a championship.

I said we could win the AL, and that is more about there being not really strong team in the AL than the Sox looking like a WS Champ.

Recently, I said we have looked worse on the field than our record indicates.

On paper, I think we are a top tier AL team, but there are several NL teams that are a tier above us, right now. I don't think the Yanks are that good, and HOU and other recent AL winners look worse than last year (on paper.)

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm talking about your history or being negative towards players, the team and just about everything that has to do with the Sox.

I never said this team was on the verge of a championship.

I said we could win the AL, and that is more about there being not really strong team in the AL than the Sox looking like a WS Champ.

Recently, I said we have looked worse on the field than our record indicates.

On paper, I think we are a top tier AL team, but there are several NL teams that are a tier above us, right now. I don't think the Yanks are that good, and HOU and other recent AL winners look worse than last year (on paper.)

LOL, winning the AL is on the verge of winning a championship. Smh.....

And, again, the sox haven't done well against teams over .500 and have pretty much played .500 ball against a very weak schedule.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

LOL, winning the AL is on the verge of winning a championship. Smh.....

And, again, the sox haven't done well against teams over .500 and have pretty much played .500 ball against a very weak schedule.

Only two teams in the AL have more wins than the Sox. They must be doing ok then! 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only two teams in the AL have more wins than the Sox. They must be doing ok then! 

What were their strength of schedule vs that of the sox? The sox have only played 6 games vs teams that are presently over .500.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

LOL, winning the AL is on the verge of winning a championship. Smh.....

And, again, the sox haven't done well against teams over .500 and have pretty much played .500 ball against a very weak schedule.

I've said over and over, I think the AL is weak, and that we are among the top 5-6 teams in the weaker league. it does not mean I think we are "on the verge of a championship." Nowhere have I said anything close to that.

I realize we have not played well. I have agreed to that. Our weak schedule has made our record look better than is should be, perhaps.

I think our team is better, on paper than it has looked on the field. You might not agree. Fine.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've said over and over, I think the AL is weak, and that we are among the top 5-6 teams in the weaker league. it does not mean I think we are "on the verge of a championship." Nowhere have I said anything close to that.

I realize we have not played well. I have agreed to that. Our weak schedule has made our record look better than is should be, perhaps.

I think our team is better, on paper than it has looked on the field. You might not agree. Fine.

Nonsense, if you think that they will/can win the AL, that would put them in the WS.

Well, being in the WS is certainly on the verge of winning it all as you would be one of only 2 teams that could win it all.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Nonsense, if you think that they will/can win the AL, that would put them in the WS.

Well, being in the WS is certainly on the verge of winning it all as you would be one of only 2 teams that could win it all.

I don't see it that way, and certainly don't think it is nonsensical to think the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies are solid tier above the Sox and other AL teams.

We need a lot to go right just to win the AL Pennant, but I also think the Yanks, Tigers, Guardians, Rangers, Astros and Mariners do, too.

I think the AL is weak, and I am being consistent when I say I have never been a proponent of the playoffs are a crap shoot and just getting there puts you "on the verge."

Fine, if you disagree, but my position is not nonsense.

[harmony]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've said over and over, I think the AL is weak, and that we are among the top 5-6 teams in the weaker league. it does not mean I think we are "on the verge of a championship." Nowhere have I said anything close to that.

I realize we have not played well. I have agreed to that. Our weak schedule has made our record look better than is should be, perhaps.

I think our team is better, on paper than it has looked on the field. You might not agree. Fine.

As of Thursday morning FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 59.1 percent of advancing to the postseason and a 4.9 percent chance of winning the World Series:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

... while Baseball Reference gave the Sox a 20.1 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and a 0.7 percent chance of winning the World Series:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml

Which points up the difficulties of early-season projections.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Right now in the AL, the Red Sox are one of the 5 or 6 least weakest teams. And there's still time to get stronger.

[oldtimer]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I can't see us trading Mayer. Story's health is always a concern (as has Mayer's, so far,) and Story may end up at 2B or somewhere else. A big year may also get Story traded. If Story plays 2B, maybe Campbell plays OF or 3B, next year.

I still think Anthony gets the call first and maybe soon.

I certainly hope so. The Sox are great at holding their prospects back in order to get them additional control, rather than improving the team. Bring him up, he is ready and the Sox could use an offensive spark. Mayer is a harder fit but is also capable of playing Major league ball now. I don't want to trade away all his  capability.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Mayer is a harder fit but is also capable of playing Major league ball now. I don't want to trade away all his  capability.

Or his culpability -- he has done nothing to prove he doesn't belong in the majors. 

Wait a minute; in four of the past five seasons, Mayer has a higher batting average vs. left-handed pitchers than vs. righties -- that's not down to MLB standards for a southpaw swinger.

At least he spends long periods of time on the IL every year, just like big leaguers.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see it that way, and certainly don't think it is nonsensical to think the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies are solid tier above the Sox and other AL teams.

We need a lot to go right just to win the AL Pennant, but I also think the Yanks, Tigers, Guardians, Rangers, Astros and Mariners do, too.

I think the AL is weak, and I am being consistent when I say I have never been a proponent of the playoffs are a crap shoot and just getting there puts you "on the verge."

One thing that is undeniable is that there have been some major crap shoot results in the playoffs.

Arizona (-15 regular season run differential) knocking out the Dodgers (+207 regular season run differential) in 2023 and making it to the WS was one of the all time crap shoot results.  And I realize that had a lot to do with the Dodgers pitching being decimated.  But that's actually the point - that's exactly why it can be a crap shoot.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I certainly hope so. The Sox are great at holding their prospects back in order to get them additional control, rather than improving the team. Bring him up, he is ready and the Sox could use an offensive spark. Mayer is a harder fit but is also capable of playing Major league ball now. I don't want to trade away all his  capability.

Anthony has shown himself to be a capable AAA bat for over 50 games now. Mayer has only been capable for less than a week. Need to pump the brakes a little bit on Mayer. He may be capable, but they don't have to rush him either as there isn't a direct need. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony has shown himself to be a capable AAA bat for over 50 games now. Mayer has only been capable for less than a week. Need to pump the brakes a little bit on Mayer. He may be capable, but they don't have to rush him either as there isn't a direct need. 

Of course not. Boston is sitting pretty. Plenty of time for openings to evolve. Potential trades to free up positions have been discussed by the media since last winter, and definitely on forums, but none demanded a deal this minute or in a couple of weeks or even at the deadline. 

Alex Mayes also posted an article on talksox the other day about possibly including Mayer as the centerpiece of another blockbuster for a top of the rotation starter. The Sox have other good shortstop prospects in the pipeline, so maybe one them can fetch some help for the pitching staff in a contending year.

I just don't see an opt-out in the future of Story as suggested (or Bregman, either).

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Of course not. Boston is sitting pretty. Plenty of time for openings to evolve. Potential trades to free up positions have been discussed by the media since last winter, and definitely on forums, but none demanded a deal this minute or in a couple of weeks or even at the deadline. 

Alex Mayes also posted an article on talksox the other day about possibly including Mayer as the centerpiece of another blockbuster for a top of the rotation starter. The Sox have other good shortstop prospects in the pipeline, so maybe one them can fetch some help for the pitching staff in a contending year.

I just don't see an opt-out in the future of Story as suggested (or Bregman, either).

If they trade Mayer, they better hope Story stays healthy. I think he's unlikely to opt out, but there is that risk. There's a much higher risk of (a) him being hurt for the majority of the remainder of the contract and (b) the prospects behind Mayer not being ready when Story's contract being up.

If you're trading for Alcantara, you can deal Duran/Casas/Rafaela plus Franklin Arias and get the deal done. I don't think they necessarily have to trade Roman and Marcelo to make further moves. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

As of Thursday morning FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 59.1 percent of advancing to the postseason and a 4.9 percent chance of winning the World Series:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

... while Baseball Reference gave the Sox a 20.1 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and a 0.7 percent chance of winning the World Series:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml

Which points up the difficulties of early-season projections.

I guess thinking 0.7 to 4.9 is not "on the verge" is nonsense.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right now in the AL, the Red Sox are one of the 5 or 6 least weakest teams. And there's still time to get stronger.

I wish I could say it that succinctly.

 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

One thing that is undeniable is that there have been some major crap shoot results in the playoffs.

Arizona (-15 regular season run differential) knocking out the Dodgers (+207 regular season run differential) in 2023 and making it to the WS was one of the all time crap shoot results.  And I realize that had a lot to do with the Dodgers pitching being decimated.  But that's actually the point - that's exactly why it can be a crap shoot.

I realize my position has taken a beating in recent years. I respect those opinions who tink it is more of a crapshoot than I do.

In baseball, the best teams do not win as predictably as other sports, and that is the reasothey play 162 games. Well, that and money.

Of course we'd have a chance to win the ring, if we make the playoffs, but I don't call a 1-5% chance as "on the verge." I wouldn't coua 6-20% "on the verge," either, maybe even 21-33%.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony has shown himself to be a capable AAA bat for over 50 games now. Mayer has only been capable for less than a week. Need to pump the brakes a little bit on Mayer. He may be capable, but they don't have to rush him either as there isn't a direct need. 

So many players, especially top prospects have jumped over AAA or played very few games there, and gone on to do well in the bigs.

Mayer's gaps in his playing time that ae concerning. 

Does anyone think that would not be called up, if Story went on the 60 Day IL?

I guess we could call up Anthony and play Rafaela at SS, again, but I think Mayer is ready but blocked, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I realize my position has taken a beating in recent years. I respect those opinions who tink it is more of a crapshoot than I do.

When it comes to the crapshoot theory, opinions shouldn't even enter into it, really.  We've got a ton of data to work with.

I don't think it's a total crapshoot.  But there have been a lot of crapshoot results, or crapshoot years like 2023. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

When it comes to the crapshoot theory, opinions shouldn't even enter into it, really.  We've got a ton of data to work with.

I don't think it's a total crapshoot.  But there have been a lot of crapshoot results, or crapshoot years like 2023. 

It's not a black and white issue. There are degrees on how much of a crapshoot you think it is.

There is a ton of data, but how you interpret it is subjective. Do you only look at data from when the playoffs were extended? (The first, second or third time?)

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not a black and white issue. There are degrees on how much of a crapshoot you think it is.

There is a ton of data, but how you interpret it is subjective. Do you only look at data from when the playoffs were extended? (The first, second or third time?)

Yes, I think basically each time they expanded the playoffs they increased the crapshoot factor.  It only makes sense.  Teams that would have been on the sidelines in past years now have a shot if they get on a roll at the right time. 

No repeat winner since 2000.  That seems to support the crapshoot theory...  

 

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So many players, especially top prospects have jumped over AAA or played very few games there, and gone on to do well in the bigs.

Mayer's gaps in his playing time that ae concerning. 

Does anyone think that would not be called up, if Story went on the 60 Day IL?

I guess we could call up Anthony and play Rafaela at SS, again, but I think Mayer is ready but blocked, right now.

Is he on the 60 day? 

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is he on the 60 day? 

No, and that is why mayer will stay in AAA. IMO, Mayer is ML ready now, but he is blocked by Story & Campbell.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No, and that is why mayer will stay in AAA. IMO, Mayer is ML ready now, but he is blocked by Story & Campbell.

His 531 OPS after his first 14 games showed you he was ready? Interesting. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, I think basically each time they expanded the playoffs they increased the crapshoot factor.  It only makes sense.  Teams that would have been on the sidelines in past years now have a shot if they get on a roll at the right time. 

No repeat winner since 2000.  That seems to support the crapshoot theory...  

 

It's only been 3 seasons without the one game play-in. In 2 of those 3 years, the "best team" in one of the tow leagues won. (LAD in '24 and HOU in '22) Texas looked like a crapshoot win, as only 1 other playoff teams had as many or less wins.

From 2012 to 2021, when they had the one game play-in and then the same 7 total series in the format, we saw a "best team" win in 5 of the 10 seasons. That is far from a complete crapshoot. in 2 other years, the second best team from a league won (SFG in '12 and HOU in '17 had one less win than CLE) That's 7 in 10 years the 1 or 2 team won out of 5 teams from each league in the "shoot." Only twice did the worst playoff team win the WS, which is in line with "crapshoot odds," since a total crapshoot would predict 1 in 5 or 2 in 10 wins.

The 3rd and 4th best teams have had way less than their "fairshare" of WS wins. (The Nats in 2019 being the only one.)

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His 531 OPS after his first 14 games showed you he was ready? Interesting. 

You know I do not count 14 game sample sizes as predictive.

I think he was "ready" last year, when he was called up to AAA, but he got hurt, but that's just me.

Right now, I'd rather have him at SS than Rafaela or some sort of timeshare between DHam & Romy.

You wouldn't?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

When it comes to the crapshoot theory, opinions shouldn't even enter into it, really.  We've got a ton of data to work with.

 

3 of the last 13 WS winners were the worst or tied for worst team in the playoffs.

1 of the last 13 WS winners was the 3 seed in the league.

9 out of 13 WS winners were the 1 or 2 seed in their league.

That looks far from a true crapshoot, to me.