Article: Projecting the 2025 Red Sox Opening Day Roster, Version 2.0

[Alex Mayes]

As spring training gets underway, we thought another fresh Opening Day roster projection was in order. 

Almost exactly two months ago, I wrote the first Opening Day Roster Projection here on Talk Sox and people…. I had some thoughts about a certain lefty killer I left off the 26-man roster. Have I come to my senses? Do I actually hate Rob Refsynder? Will I accidentally list Justin Slaten twice?! Let’s find out together.

Lineup

1. Jarren Duran, LF
2. Rafael Devers, DH
3. Alex Bregman, 3B
4. Triston Casas, 1B
5. Trevor Story, SS
6. Roman Anthony, RF
7. Connor Wong, C
8. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF
9. David Hamilton, 2B

I’ve swapped one rookie for another in this project. Kristian Campbell doesn’t seem to be the frontrunner for the starting job at second, while a late start to spring training for Wilyer Abreu opens the door for Roman Anthony to begin the season with the big league club. There’s some debate about Anthony being able to stick in right field at Fenway Park. Still, I thought his starting there, instead of forcing him to learn how the Green Monster plays and Ceddanne Rafaela learning a new position in right, made more sense to begin the season. Should Anthony show shortcomings, people can shift around to accommodate him. However, if Abreu is ready for Opening Day or shortly afterward, he will roam right field again this season while Anthony gets more reps at Triple-A Worcester. David Hamilton appears to have the edge at second base during spring training and should lock in the starting job within the next week or so.

Bench

• Carlos Narvaez, C
• Rob Refsnyder, OF
• Romy Gonzalez, Util
• Masataka Yoshida, OF/DH

The elephant in the room is still Masataka Yoshida and his contract. The addition of Alex Bregman likely forces Alex Cora’s hand and shifts Devers to DH and Yoshida to the bench. He’s an expensive bench piece and will likely make late-game pinch-hitting appearances and occasionally show up in the starting lineup at DH. Still, if Bregman doesn’t play second base, there’s probably no other option. Rob Refsnyder should slot in as a platoon partner with Abreu, while Gonzalez can slot in most places around the infield. Should Devers insist on playing third, which is possible, Bregman shifting to second would push Hamilton to the bench, and Yoshida would return to the starting DH role.

Starting Rotation

1. Garrett Crochet, LHP
2. Tanner Houck, RHP
3. Walker Buehler, RHP
4. Lucas Giolito, RHP
5. Brayan Bello, RHP

There are a couple of changes from my last projection here. I’ve swapped Kutter Crawford for Richard Fitts and moved Brayan Bello to the fifth starter role, down from the third. Crawford will begin the year on the Injured List and could be out for much of the season if his knee injury continues to be bothersome. The shift downward for Bello isn’t because of anything major or me not believing in him; you won’t find a bigger Bello fan than myself; it’s because he’s gotten off to a later start to spring training and slotting him in later in the starting rotation gives him a couple of extra days to get acclimated. Should he show up and show out in spring training, though, he slides right back to my original placement of third in the rotation. 

Bullpen

• Aroldis Chapman, LHP
• Liam Hendriks, RHP
• Justin Slaten, RHP
• Garrett Whitlock, RHP
• Richard Fitts, RHP
• Justin Wilson, RHP
• Luis Guerrero, RHP
• Adam Ottavino, RHP

There are some changes here as well. Richard Fitts has been electric this spring training and has earned his way into the starting rotation conversation. Still, Alex Cora put the kibosh on any six-man rotation talk earlier during spring training. Fitts best fits (I’m so sorry, Davy) in a long-relief role to begin the season as a long reliever, allowing him to showcase his pitch mix and increased velocity through the middle innings. I’ve also given the roster nod to veteran Adam Ottavino over guys like Brennan Bernardino or *shudders* Josh Winckowski. Neither have a place on the major league roster over someone like Ottavino, who knows what it’s like to pitch in Boston during a successful season and can be a veteran ear for the younger members of the bullpen.

We’ll have another roster projection closer to Opening Day, so keep an eye out for that as we get closer to the best day of the year. What are your thoughts on this projection? Can Campbell play his way back into the second-base conversation? Will Devers come around to playing DH to accommodate a Gold Glove-winning third baseman on the roster? What if Marcelo Mayer continues tearing up spring training? Let us know in the comments!

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[moonslav59]

Winckowski has not looked good, so far, but I'm not sure he's off the 26 just yet,

[mvp 78]

It's Winck vs Guerrero. Winck wasn't great last season and has started off poorly. The org is probably pretty down on him. I'd rather see Guerrero get the nod too. 

The bullpen projected here is what SoxProspects projected on their previous podcast. Seems about right? Last spot is between Adams and Ottavino. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's Winck vs Guerrero. Winck wasn't great last season and has started off poorly. The org is probably pretty down on him. I'd rather see Guerrero get the nod too. 

The bullpen projected here is what SoxProspects projected on their previous podcast. Seems about right? Last spot is between Adams and Ottavino. 

I was thinking more about Ottavino vs Wink, but wink has options, so keeping Ottavino as "an option" might be worthwile.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking more about Ottavino vs Wink, but wink has options, so keeping Ottavino as "an option" might be worthwile.

It may be Adams vs Ottavino vs Winck, but I think they really want to keep one of these veteran depth guys on for the start of the season. Ottavino had a decent stretches last season (3/30 - 5/28 3.32 ERA/2.93 FIP, 6/8 - 9/17 2.83 ERA/3.41 FIP). Adams started off strong last season (2.37 ERA/3.32 FIP on 6/1), but fell apart after 7.90 ERA/6.68 FIP 6/2 - 7/13).

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It may be Adams vs Ottavino vs Winck, but I think they really want to keep one of these veteran depth guys on for the start of the season. Ottavino had a decent stretches last season (3/30 - 5/28 3.32 ERA/2.93 FIP, 6/8 - 9/17 2.83 ERA/3.41 FIP). Adams started off strong last season (2.37 ERA/3.32 FIP on 6/1), but fell apart after 7.90 ERA/6.68 FIP 6/2 - 7/13).

I'm fine with whoever they think is the best, but I also think whatever gives them the most options to keep in the system, weather on the 40 or not will be a top priority.

[Larry Cook]

I think Wilson is a left handed pitcher. Although judging how he throws, maybe he is a right handed pitcher impersonating a left handed pitcher!!!!!

either way, he is hard to watch without throwing up !!!!!!

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think Wilson is a left handed pitcher. Although judging how he throws, maybe he is a right handed pitcher impersonating a left handed pitcher!!!!!

either way, he is hard to watch without throwing up !!!!!!

He'll make the roster, but may not make it to June.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He'll make the roster, but may not make it to June.

Chris Hatfield said something pretty interesting that I'll summarize "the Opening Day roster doesn't matter all that much, what really matters is the roster on Game 162." 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Chris Hatfield said something pretty interesting that I'll summarize "the Opening Day roster doesn't matter all that much, what really matters is the roster on Game 162." 

That hasn't mattered in a long time.

Maybe that changes, this fall.

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Chris Hatfield said something pretty interesting that I'll summarize "the Opening Day roster doesn't matter all that much, what really matters is the roster on Game 162." 

Is he talking specifically about the '25 Sox?  

[moonslav59]

As with many teams in MLB, how much injuries take their toll on the team could be the deciding factor.

We know we will have some. We will likely start the season with 2-3 players on the 10 day IL, likely Crawford and Bello and maybe Abreu.

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Is he talking specifically about the '25 Sox?  

In this instance, it was about the '25 Sox. I'm not sure if it would change for other years. 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In this instance, it was about the '25 Sox. I'm not sure if it would change for other years. 

Well, when you are out of the race in August, I'm not sure it matters much.

[vegasbob]

The most important 26 man roster is the one in effect on August 1 , after the early and mid season injuries, the trade deadline , and large sample sizes  in the books.   It is also when you can see if you are  capable of or strongly in contention for post season .   Those are the players you are counting on to bring it home.

Quick aside, what will be 3Bman Raffy Devers reaction to being DH ?    It might be more likely to have Bregman , than the sensitive man-child pouting

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, when you are out of the race in August, I'm not sure it matters much.

If you're out of the race in August, your team would probably be constructed a little differently on Game 162 than if they were in the race in August.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

The most important 26 man roster is the one in effect on August 1 , after the early and mid season injuries, the trade deadline , and large sample sizes  in the books.   It is also when you can see if you are  capable of or strongly in contention for post season .   Those are the players you are counting on to bring it home.

Quick aside, what will be 3Bman Raffy Devers reaction to being DH ?    It might be more likely to have Bregman , than the sensitive man-child pouting

"Sensitive man child."   That's worse than the BOS media.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you're out of the race in August, your team would probably be constructed a little differently on Game 162 than if they were in the race in August.

Yes, and so why would that matter more?

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and so why would that matter more?

Because if I gave you the Game 162 roster today and it was filled with a team that looked ready to compete in the playoffs, you'd be more excited about the upcoming season than if it looked like how it looked on 9/30/24, 9/30/23, 9/30/22, etc. That's why I care about more what the roster will look like later on than what it looks like now. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Because if I gave you the Game 162 roster today and it was filled with a team that looked ready to compete in the playoffs, you'd be more excited about the upcoming season than if it looked like how it looked on 9/30/24, 9/30/23, 9/30/22, etc. That's why I care about more what the roster will look like later on than what it looks like now. 

I'm not sure how much different it looked on 9/20/24 than 8/1/24 or 9/1/24, except for guys on the IL. We had Danny Jansen, Luis Garcia and Sims, that on the surface would look like we were trying to compete for game 162.

[vegasbob]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

"Sensitive man child."   That's worse than the BOS media.

i thought that was something from Shaughnessy ?   

Anyway, i do not hold Devers in the same high regard as many do.  No question he can hit above average but overall he is no  " face of a franchise".

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, vegasbob said:

i thought that was something from Shaughnessy ?   

Anyway, i do not hold Devers in the same high regard as many do.  No question he can hit above average but overall he is no  " face of a franchise".

He does not appear to want to be "the face." but that's a different matter. Repeating what Shaughnessey might have been the first to say made me think you agreed.