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Posted

The Red Sox got their ace in left-handed starter Garrett Crochet. The price they paid, though, may prove to be steeper than initially feared.

When the Red Sox lost out on Juan Soto, fans couldn't do much but chuckle at the size of his contract. When they missed out on Max Fried, it stung a bit more because he signed with the Yankees, but the Yankees were always going to do something inane as a reaction to losing Soto to their crosstown rivals. When it became clear that teams like the Cubs and Phillies had put in enticing bids for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, Boston finally sprang into action, dealing a package headline by top prospect Kyle Teel to secure the flamethrower. Crochet is a 25-year-old stud with some more unrealized potential on top of the 2.38 xFIP he produced in 2024. He was always going to cost a lot, and the Red Sox will be a demonstrably better team in 2025 because he’s on their roster. The only issue facing the Red Sox now is that they might not have anyone capable of catching him.

Teel, the 25th-best prospect in baseball according to MiLB.com, has an excellent arm (he caught 38% of attempted basestealers in his final season in college) and possesses improving framing skills. It would have taken some time, of course, but there was a world in which Teel learned to work in harmony with the staff in Boston, deftly handling all the duties of a starting catcher while swinging an above-average bat. Now, his future lies in Chicago and Boston’s future at catcher is nowhere to be found.

Connor Wong is the holdover starter from the 2024 campaign, and while his bat is impressive for a backstop — he ran a .280/.333/.425 slash line, good for a 110 wRC+ — his defensive metrics are anything but. He ranked in the ninth percentile in framing last season, and according to Statcast's Fielding Run Value, he was worth a hideous -10 runs -10 run over 878 1/3 innings behind the plate. In about 2,000 career innings, he’s accrued -14 FRV. Suffice it to say, Wong is a nice player to have on the roster, but he shouldn’t be the team’s leading man at catcher. It’s promising that he was worth 1.1 fWAR despite his terrible work in the field, but that only further cements the notion that he should be getting more reps at DH and serving as an emergency third catcher when needed.

Luckily, the Red Sox appear to have found their backup backstop in another, lesser-publicized trade from last week, securing Carlos Narváez from the Yankees in exchange for Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, along with some international bonus pool space. Rodriguez-Cruz is now the 12th-best prospect in the Yankees’ system, which highlights how highly Boston views Narváez. The 26-year-old catcher posted a .782 OPS (108 wRC+) in 96 games at Triple A, and he’s well-regarded behind the dish, especially for his strong arm. But, again, he’s a backup until proven otherwise. And both he and Wong (28) are in or approaching their late 20s. Neither is going to replace what Teel projects to bring to the table. Where else can Boston turn for their catcher of the future?

Well, you can forget the free agent market. Danny Jansen (Rays), Carson Kelly (Cubs), Travis d’Arnaud (Angels), Kyle Higashioka (Rangers), and Gary Sanchez (Orioles) have all signed already, and they, along with every notable free agent catcher still available, are in their 30s. As a short-term fix, perhaps a defense-first option like Tucker Barnhart or (gulp) offensive black hole Martin Maldonado could make for a good band-aid, but that doesn’t solve the larger problem in the organization now that Teel wears the wrong color Sox.

The trade market does hold better prospects, if only by default. The Pirates are loaded with high-upside options — former top prospect Joey Bart, former first overall pick Henry Davis, well-regarded youngster Endy Rodríguez — but none are proven options and all come with serious warts. The Cardinals would surely love to get out from under Willson Contreras’s contract, but his already-meh defense is only declining as he ages. Would the Braves be willing to move Sean Murphy for a huge return? Maybe the Phillies will make J.T. Realmuto available, though he’s already 33 and will hit free agency after next season.

The point of this exercise is not to paint a doom-and-gloom picture of the long-term situation behind the dish in Boston. It’s simply to demonstrate that Teel, though no sure thing himself, is immensely valuable precisely because of how rare it is to find a legitimate two-way catcher. The cost for Crochet was always going to sting, and the White Sox were smart to target a player who can be their answer at catcher for the next half-decade or longer. How the Red Sox respond to losing him could define not just their 2025 season, but the foreseeable future in Boston.


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Posted
1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I still wonder if the CWS would have taken Mayer over Teel.

Maybe the Sox would rather keep Mayer? 

Posted

The next draft may have some more college catchers. None are projected to go Top Ten; Red Sox pick 15th.

Boston gave up its top picks in the last two drafts for Crochet, but just remember what it really gave up to get those picks: spending to acquire top MLB talent in those offseasons...

... or as many of us spent those winters typing -- the Red Sox organization gave up trying to use all their resources to put them in the best position to win.

Posted
1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The next draft may have some more college catchers. None are projected to go Top Ten; Red Sox pick 15th.

Boston gave up its top picks in the last two drafts for Crochet, but just remember what it really gave up to get those picks: spending and investing in good MLB players in those offseasons...

... or as many of us spent those winters typing -- the Red Sox organization gave up trying to use all their resources to put them in the best position to win.

Hey, they've been going all out to win...as many as they lose, or thereabouts. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The next draft may have some more college catchers. None are projected to go Top Ten; Red Sox pick 15th.

Boston gave up its top picks in the last two drafts for Crochet, but just remember what it really gave up to get those picks: spending to acquire top MLB talent in those offseasons...

... or as many of us spent those winters typing -- the Red Sox organization gave up trying to use all their resources to put them in the best position to win.

as of right now, their payroll is less than last year and John The Con is being outspent by the A's this offseason. it's all a big f***ing joke.

Posted

A trade for Murphy fills two needs, as he is a good right-handed bat.  He had 4 years/$60 mill left on his deal, a good (offensively at least, unsure of his D) young catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin.  
 

BTV gives him a negative surplus trade value at -$14mill.  If that’s accurate, the reported “big package” might not hold.  It doesn’t make him free, and certainly doesn’t make Atlanta a dumping ground for Yoshida.  But a good yet potentially overpaid player might entice them.  I’d start the bidding with Garrett Whitlock, who is slated to be a middle reliever making $14mill over the next two seasons.  His surplus value is -$1.1 mill indicating Atlanta should kick in some cash, but I ultimately wouldn’t hold them to it…

Posted
7 minutes ago, notin said:

A trade for Murphy fills two needs, as he is a good right-handed bat.  He had 4 years/$60 mill left on his deal, a good (offensively at least, unsure of his D) young catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin.  
 

BTV gives him a negative surplus trade value at -$14mill.  If that’s accurate, the reported “big package” might not hold.  It doesn’t make him free, and certainly doesn’t make Atlanta a dumping ground for Yoshida.  But a good yet potentially overpaid player might entice them.  I’d start the bidding with Garrett Whitlock, who is slated to be a middle reliever making $14mill over the next two seasons.  His surplus value is -$1.1 mill indicating Atlanta should kick in some cash, but I ultimately wouldn’t hold them to it…

I like it, but Fan-Unfriendly Henry probably wouldn't -- because he ascared of Whitlock winning the Cy Young next year.

Posted
3 minutes ago, notin said:

A trade for Murphy fills two needs, as he is a good right-handed bat.  He had 4 years/$60 mill left on his deal, a good (offensively at least, unsure of his D) young catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin.  
 

BTV gives him a negative surplus trade value at -$14mill.  If that’s accurate, the reported “big package” might not hold.  It doesn’t make him free, and certainly doesn’t make Atlanta a dumping ground for Yoshida.  But a good yet potentially overpaid player might entice them.  I’d start the bidding with Garrett Whitlock, who is slated to be a middle reliever making $14mill over the next two seasons.  His surplus value is -$1.1 mill indicating Atlanta should kick in some cash, but I ultimately wouldn’t hold them to it…

Murphy really struggled last season. He's got a good glove and that skill should stick with him for the next 4 years. I'm not against the move. Just depends on what they are giving up. 

https://www.batterypower.com/2024/12/15/24315487/2024-atlanta-braves-season-in-review-sean-murphy

This article posits that Murphy could bounce back this season, but that the Braves are going to rely on him for a lot of playing time in 2025. Not so sure they are likely to trade him. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, notin said:

A trade for Murphy fills two needs, as he is a good right-handed bat.  He had 4 years/$60 mill left on his deal, a good (offensively at least, unsure of his D) young catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin.  
 

BTV gives him a negative surplus trade value at -$14mill.  If that’s accurate, the reported “big package” might not hold.  It doesn’t make him free, and certainly doesn’t make Atlanta a dumping ground for Yoshida.  But a good yet potentially overpaid player might entice them.  I’d start the bidding with Garrett Whitlock, who is slated to be a middle reliever making $14mill over the next two seasons.  His surplus value is -$1.1 mill indicating Atlanta should kick in some cash, but I ultimately wouldn’t hold them to it…

I think I read that ATL might ease him off catching duties, so if he looks be a DH, I'm not sure he's a fit- long term. He also has just one season with 450+ PAs, so that concerns me, but good catchers are hard to find. 

I'd give more than Whitlock for him, and hope for some cash relief or a Yoshida inclusion, with us paying some cash, but not a lot.

What does ATL need?

Would you give Whitlock, Rafaela, Yoshida for Murphy with no money, either way?

Posted
32 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like it, but Fan-Unfriendly Henry probably wouldn't -- because he ascared of Whitlock winning the Cy Young next year.

I’m sure Henry hates the very idea of a $7mill middle reliever.  Hates it more than he hates poor people, kittens, and joy among the masses…

Posted
15 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m sure Henry hates the very idea of a $7mill middle reliever.  Hates it more than he hates poor people, kittens, and joy among the masses…

Does he care about cash payout or CBT? 

Chris Martin's deal was 2/13.5. 

Even if Whitlock is in the pen, I don't think the money is outrageous at this point. Don't worry though, one of these Sox extensions will eventually work in their favor! 

Posted

I think the point was that if we are taking on Murphy's backend of his contract, we may want to "balance" the cost a little bit by returning a contract that is not min wage. (I suggested Rafaela, and I doubt they take Yoshida, even with some cash.)

I'd like to keep Whitlock.

Posted
38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the point was that if we are taking on Murphy's backend of his contract, we may want to "balance" the cost a little bit by returning a contract that is not min wage. (I suggested Rafaela, and I doubt they take Yoshida, even with some cash.)

I'd like to keep Whitlock.

With Marcell Ozuna under contract for 2025, it’s a very safe bet Atlanta wants no part of Yoshida.  They might want Story, but the Sox probably have to kick in some serious cash to make that happen here..

Posted
18 minutes ago, notin said:

With Marcell Ozuna under contract for 2025, it’s a very safe bet Atlanta wants no part of Yoshida.  They might want Story, but the Sox probably have to kick in some serious cash to make that happen here..

Rafaela is not a salary dump, but some think he is not worth the money and contract length given to him.

He may also be the type of player ATL likes and thinks they could "fix."

I like Rafaela. I think he'd make an excellent 4th OF'er, back-up 2Bman and maybe emergency SS, but at that cost, it may be rather high. With as many injuries as most teams have, he may still get 350-400+ PAs over every season in a utility role.

Rafaela & Romero for Murphy and a little cash?

Posted
1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the point was that if we are taking on Murphy's backend of his contract, we may want to "balance" the cost a little bit by returning a contract that is not min wage. (I suggested Rafaela, and I doubt they take Yoshida, even with some cash.)

I'd like to keep Whitlock.

Eat the full contract and give up less. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Eat the full contract and give up less. 

We can afford him, but ATL will want someone, most likely not Wong. I'm not sure ATL would take a far-away prospect. I doubt we'd give them any top prospects, as good as he still is.

What kind of offer do you think both sides might like?

Name names.

Posted
6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We can afford him, but ATL will want someone, most likely not Wong. I'm not sure ATL would take a far-away prospect. I doubt we'd give them any top prospects, as good as he still is.

What kind of offer do you think both sides might like?

Name names.

Story plus $15mill for Murphy.

I’d rather have SS and C manned by Mayer and Murphy than Story and Wong…

Posted
11 minutes ago, notin said:

Story plus $15mill for Murphy.

I’d rather have SS and C manned by Mayer and Murphy than Story and Wong…

Interesting. We'd probably see Rafaela back at SS, again, once mayer hits the IL.

Posted
22 minutes ago, notin said:

Story plus $15mill for Murphy.

I’d rather have SS and C manned by Mayer and Murphy than Story and Wong…

Not an Arcia fan? 

2024 

Arcia 0.8 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR 157 Games (owed $2M in 2025)

Story 0.6 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR 26 Games

Posted
5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not an Arcia fan? 

2024 

Arcia 0.8 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR 157 Games (owed $2M in 2025)

Story 0.6 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR 26 Games

Nobody is an Arcia fan.  Not even Mrs. Arcia…

Posted
19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Interesting. We'd probably see Rafaela back at SS, again, once mayer hits the IL.

… which might be later than when Story hits it..

Posted
7 minutes ago, notin said:

… which might be later than when Story hits it..

Emphasis on "might."

Romy might be okay as the third stringer. Romero & Arias are in the pipeline but too far away for 2025.

Posted

While Murphy is due $15M a year from 2025 to 2028 (4 yrs) with a team option for $15M in '29 (no buyout,) his tax hit is just $12.2M a year. That $3M may be helpful, if Jh ever decides to spend up to the line.

They have a very young OF, so I'm not sure they'd need Rafaela or Abreu, but I do think they'd want a player that would help them, right away. The guy is not a salary dump, but his salary might keep the return cost from being something real bad.

Would one or two from Whitlock, Rafaela and Abreu be enough?

Could one plus Kelly and a non 40 man roster good prospect be enough?

Posted
33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While Murphy is due $15M a year from 2025 to 2028 (4 yrs) with a team option for $15M in '29 (no buyout,) his tax hit is just $12.2M a year. That $3M may be helpful, if Jh ever decides to spend up to the line.

They have a very young OF, so I'm not sure they'd need Rafaela or Abreu, but I do think they'd want a player that would help them, right away. The guy is not a salary dump, but his salary might keep the return cost from being something real bad.

Would one or two from Whitlock, Rafaela and Abreu be enough?

Could one plus Kelly and a non 40 man roster good prospect be enough?

The Braves need a shortstop.  They have nothing at that position between Orlando “Awful” Arcia and some 18yo kid in A ball.

 

They do have a good catching prospect in AAA named Drake Baldwin, ranked among their top 5 prospects by most sources.  Sure they won’t turn down pitching, but it also isn’t a shortage for them.

Story for Murphy does make sense for both teams, except with the money.  Someone even posted a video of some Braves vloggers citing Story as a good move for the Braves.  And I think both teams improve their C/SS combos here as the Braves are probably better with Baldwin/Story than with Murphy/Arcia.  
 

But Story is owed roughly $70mill over 3 years.  So the Sox need to pay that down.  Get Murphy, start the Mayer era in Boston.  (Murphy can also DH when he doesn’t catch, since the Sox don’t exactly have Marcell Ozuna hogging those at bats.)

 

Make it happen, Breslow.  AA is expecting your call…

Posted
3 hours ago, notin said:

The Braves need a shortstop.  They have nothing at that position between Orlando “Awful” Arcia and some 18yo kid in A ball.

 

They do have a good catching prospect in AAA named Drake Baldwin, ranked among their top 5 prospects by most sources.  Sure they won’t turn down pitching, but it also isn’t a shortage for them.

Story for Murphy does make sense for both teams, except with the money.  Someone even posted a video of some Braves vloggers citing Story as a good move for the Braves.  And I think both teams improve their C/SS combos here as the Braves are probably better with Baldwin/Story than with Murphy/Arcia.  
 

But Story is owed roughly $70mill over 3 years.  So the Sox need to pay that down.  Get Murphy, start the Mayer era in Boston.  (Murphy can also DH when he doesn’t catch, since the Sox don’t exactly have Marcell Ozuna hogging those at bats.)

 

Make it happen, Breslow.  AA is expecting your call…

Sounds like it might work.

I'm ready to start the Anthony-Campbell-Mayer era. I don't think we can win without them, as things look, now.

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