Article: Is Dustin Pedroia a Hall of Famer?

[Adam Morgan]

The Laser Show is appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. How will the BBWAA writers view his candidacy?

When Dustin Pedroia was called up to the majors in late August 2006, there was no guarantee that 18 years later we would be talking about a potential Hall of Famer. Pedroia had an inauspicious beginning, managing -0.8 WAR over 98 plate appearances. By 2007, however, the second-round draft pick from 2004 had become a standout in the lineup and won AL Rookie of the Year. He racked up 3.9 WAR and got 21 more first-place votes than the runner-up, Delmon Young.

Red Sox fans know how the rest of the story goes. In his second season, Pedroia won MVP, leading the league in runs with 118 and WAR with 7.0. His 213 hits tied him with Ichiro Suzuki for the league lead. The combination of winning Rookie of the Year and MVP in back-to-back seasons was something not seen in the American League since Cal Ripken Jr. accomplished the feat in 1982 and 1983. For Ripken, 1983 was the first of two MVPs that, along with his legendary streak, propelled him to an easy Hall of Fame election. For Pedroia, 2007 was his one and only MVP, and that might be the end of his Hall of Fame candidacy.

In the National League, there have been a few winners of back-to-back Rookie of the Year and MVPs. Kris Bryant won back-to-back in 2015 and 2016. His own Hall of Fame candidacy looks extremely unlikely at this point. Ryan Howard won in 2005 and 2006, and he received eight votes on his first and only ballot.

Pedroia was a better player than Howard: longer career, higher WAR, better defense. He also ended up with four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and four All-Star nods. But Pedroia wasn’t the best second baseman during his career. Between 2007 and his official last season in 2019, Pedroia had the third-highest WAR, trailing Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler. Cano’s two PED suspensions probably do in his Hall of Fame chances, but Kinsler will be interesting. He can't compete with Pedroia's hardware or his peak, but he has over 100 more home runs and stolen bases.

Likely the best barometer for how both Pedroia and Kinsler will do is Chase Utley. Utley’s first year of eligibility was 2024. Utley’s career started before Pedroia’s in 2003 and his 64.5 Baseball-Reference WAR bests Pedroia by more than 10. In his first year of eligibility, Utley appeared on 111 ballots. That was good enough to keep him on the ballot, but a far cry from the 289 votes needed for election. That 28.8% of the vote doesn’t preclude him from getting in. Scott Rolen went from a debut of 10.2% to ultimately make the hall while players like Todd Helton, Duke Snider, and Bert Blyleven all had under 20% on their first ballot.

But if you look at Jay Jaffe's JAWS metric, it's easy to see that Utley is a better bet than Pedey. Utley ranks 12th amongst second basemen in WAR and has a seven-year peak of 49.3 WAR. Pedroia ranks 19th in WAR with a seven-year peak of 41.0. Many fans have argued that health is the only separator. He never had a stretch of more than four seasons with 100 games played. More importantly, a takeout slide from Manny Machado effectively ended Pedroia's career before he turned 34, robbing him of the chance to compile the career numbers of a typical Hall-member and requiring a knee replacement before he could even turn 40. It's one thing to struggle through injuries, but it's another entirely to have the second half of your career stolen from you in an instant, and voters might recognize that distinction. Utley had streaks of seven seasons in a row and five seasons with more than 100 games played, and he played in over 400 than Pedroia. But even if you look at smaller career sections, Pedroia’s put up 19.2 WAR in his best three-year stretch, while Utley went for 25.0 in his best stretch.

I expect Pedroia to stay on the ballot, but with Hall voters getting more sabermetrically inclined, it's hard to see a Rookie of the Year and MVP vaulting him over Utley. In the end, Red Sox fans should be rooting for Chase Utley to make the Hall of Fame because if he falls short, there is little hope for our own superstar second baseman.

 

 

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[mvp 78]

If Machado didn't take him out at 2b and he was able to have 3-4 more good seasons, he'd have a stronger case. He might be one and done with this ballot and not get 5%. 

[Bellhorn04]

No, sometimes injuries take you out of the Hall.  

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, sometimes injuries take you out of the Hall.  

If he was traded out of the division, that injury may have never happened. 🤔

[notin]

Career cut short.  But he had the potential to be either in the Hall or a Lou Whitaker-esque questionable omission…

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If Machado didn't take him out at 2b and he was able to have 3-4 more good seasons, he'd have a stronger case. He might be one and done with this ballot and not get 5%. 

How many people came in here to make this same point?

Certainly would be far from a slam dunk but I can't help but think he'd have a shot if Manny Machado was a half way decent human being.  

Not only do I think he may have had more games played with better results between 2017-2019, but if didn't fall off like he had maybe even played another year or two as well.  It might not of been 2.5 it may have been 4.5 years of production Manny robbed Dustin of. 

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, notin said:

Career cut short.  But he had the potential to be either in the Hall or a Lou Whitaker-esque questionable omission…

Not as questionable as the Bobby Grich omission though. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pedroia is a Red Sox Hall of Famer. Lasting memories of Pedey diving to glove a hard shot and firing to a base for an out in big spot, or drilling a hit to start or extend a rally when it mattered most.

Can't say I saw much of Utley, but maybe his fans have similar images. Bb-ref stats are comparable:

High Leverage BA/OPS- Utley .281/.832; Pedroia .309/.836

Medium Leverage BA/OPS- Utley .273/.820; Pedroia .300/.805

Low Leverage - BA/OPS- Utley .274/.822; Pedroia .295/.793

Utley's Most Similar Batter was Ian Kinsler, who in college transferred from Arizona State after Pedroia beat him out at shortstop. Pedroia's Most Similar Batter was Howie Kendrick, the 2019 NLCS MVP whose homer  drove in the runs that won the World Series. Second Most Similar was Bogaerts, who won five Silver Sluggers at shortstop.

[mvp 78]

Utley 5.4 bWAR 162 Av

Pedroia 5.6 bWAR 162 Av

If Pedroia was able to stay healthy through age 39 the way Utley did, may have as good of a case if not better than Utley (higher average, OBP, TB per 162).

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Not as questionable as the Bobby Grich omission though. 

bWAR/162

Grich 5.7

Pedroia 5.6

Whitaker 5.1

 

So maybe as questionable?