asdf123’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: Setting up to compete for the long haul

[asdf123]

Assuming Anthony is ready for Opening Day, but none of the other Big 4 prospects are

 

Goals:

Add a #1/2 type starter and improve rotation depth. Houck is a good #1 but there are only 4 real starters under contract and the current 3-4-5 is Bello-Kutter-Giolito.

Fix lineup balance. The lineup was awful vs LHP last year: need to add guys who mash vs left handed pitchers.

Fix catcher defense. This team was awful defensively last year and Connor Wong, the worst defensive catcher in MLB, was a big part of that.

Clear middle infield clutter. Mayer and Campbell are coming, but are blocked by Story's albatross contract and the mass of bodies at 2B.

Add leverage bullpen piece (lefty preferred). I trust Hendriks to close, but outside of him it's just Whitlock, Slaten, and the promising but unproven Guerrero for leverage spots. None of those 4 are LHP.

 

Trades:

Rafaela, Kutter, Bleis, and Wikelman Gonzalez to the White Sox for Crochet

Casas to the Blue Jays for Guerrero ($10M retained)

Masa to the Mariners for Haniger (who is immediately DFA'd)

Story (half of remaining money retained), Wong, and Grissom to the Dodgers for Lux and Rojas

 

FA:

Carson Kelly 3 years, 10.5 mil

AJ Minter 2 years, 17 mil

Teoscar Hernandez 3 years, 66 mil

Max Fried 6 years, 162 mil

 

Move explanation:

No idea if this is enough for Crochet. The White Sox said they'd be fine with Abreu + prospects and Rafaela + Kutter roughly = Abreu to me. I'd much rather keep Abreu than Rafaela. Rafaela is not a good defensive SS, doesn't hit LHP much better than Abreu (48 wRC+ for Abreu vs LHP, 62 for Rafaela), and Anthony - Duran - Abreu is an elite defensive OF even without Rafaela. Kutter is nice to have but spare parts with Crochet + another FA.

Guerrero defends 1B much better than Casas does and absolutely mashes in Fenway. This is the RHH Devers needs to protect him. The Sox have the future payroll space to extend Guerrero in this timeline since Masa and half of Story are off the books. Casas is more valuable than Guerrero in a trade due to the years of control so the Jays throw in some cash to offset.

I like Masa as a player but he just doesn't work in this lineup. 58 wRC+ vs LHP and no defensive value ain't gonna cut it. Rip off the band-aid by trading for a contract that expires sooner and move on. The Mariners need a lefty DH and are closer to Japan to draw the foreign audience.

The Dodgers need middle infield help and Story is a good player, just an overpaid one. Getting Story and Grissom to play down the middle lets Betts play the outfield and Wong is an interesting utility guy/DH for Ohtani rest days. Rojas and Lux are perfect placeholders for Mayer and Campbell. They'll play competent (if below average) baseball for half a season, then get DFA'd, traded, or optioned when the time comes.

The FA signings should be pretty self-explanatory. Kelly is a good defensive catcher, Minter is the leverage lefty, Hernandez is another LHP killer, and Fried is the new #1 guy. I'm over the $200M budget, but under the $214M CBT threshold and left some room under the CBT for trade deadline maneuvering if need be.

This team will be OK to good, but not great in the first half of 2025. I love that rotation and like the bullpen, but Lux - Rojas - Kelly/McGuire is a rough bottom third of the order. Once those guys become Campbell, Mayer, and Teel, I think this roster has no weaknesses and is poised to compete for a long time. In particular, I really like the pitching depth. If guys get hurt, we have Priester/Fitts/Dobbins to cover starters and Penrod/Weissert/Kelly/Booser to cover relievers.

• C: Carson Kelly ($3.5M)
• 1B: Vlad Guerrero Jr ($19.6M)
• 2B: Gavin Lux ($2.7M)
• 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M)
• SS: Miguel Rojas ($5M)
• LF: Roman Anthony ($0.8M)
• CF: Jarren Duran ($4.9M)
• RF: Wilyer Abreu ($0.80M)
• DH: Teoscar Hernandez ($22M)
• 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M)
• Utility: David Hamilton ($0.80M)
• Utility: Romy Gonzalez ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Reese McGuire ($1.25M)
• NA: Trevor Story ($13M)
• SP1: Max Fried ($27M)
• SP2: Tanner Houck ($4.5M)
• SP3: Garrett Crochet ($2.9M)
• SP4: Brayan Bello ($2.66M)
• SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.00M)
• RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M)
• RP: Michael Fulmer ($1.5M)
• RP: Garrett Whitlock ($5.5M)
• RP: Justin Wilson ($2.25M)
• RP: Cooper Criswell ($0.80M)
• RP: AJ Minter ($8.5M)
• RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M)
• RP: Luis Guerrero ($0.80M)
• NA: Mitch Haniger ($15.6M)

Payroll is 1.13% over budget

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like your breakdowns on these moves, and am intrigued by Vlad -- because if Boston misses out on Soto (which, face it, we all expect), then the Red Sox surely have all that Soto money to sign another masher in his prime, plus considerable other funds to spend on arms.

Trading Casas and replacing him with Vlad also goes a lonnnnnnnggg way in achieving Breslow's stated goal of balancing out the batting order.

[notin]

If Story/Grissom is an upgrade over Rojas/Lux, why are the Sox settling for Rojas/Lux when we already have the former?  If they’re not an upgrade, why is LA making this move?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

If Story/Grissom is an upgrade over Rojas/Lux, why are the Sox settling for Rojas/Lux when we already have the former?  If they’re not an upgrade, why is LA making this move?

Because Story is a five-tool player in the National League, a guy who averaged 4.5 WAR per season in 6 years in the NL West... instead of the 4 WAR he's earned total in 3 years in the AL East?

[Bellhorn04]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

If Story/Grissom is an upgrade over Rojas/Lux, why are the Sox settling for Rojas/Lux when we already have the former?  If they’re not an upgrade, why is LA making this move?

I assume the Sox are doing this largely to recover half of Story's contract.

[Hugh2]

Story has 3/72 left, if he has one healthy season he's fully tradeable, and you probably get something in return that's decent as well. 

Mayer may not be ready quite yet and has his own injury concerns, I wouldn't look to trade Story this offseason. 

[moonslav59]

I kinda think Anthony is the one who is on the opening day roster, but we could wait a day or two, since none of the top 4 prospects need Rule 5 protection, this year. Wait until the season starts, add the sure injured pitcher to the 60, and then add Anthony (or even others) to the 40 and 26. None of the top 4 will be added to the 40, until the plan is to play them FT or near FT on the 26.

We could also add Anthony and or others after they gain that extra year of team control date. I'm super high on Campbell, but I think we will give the Grissom-DHam duo (platoon?) at 2B every chance to win the opening day 2B slot. Story will be the SS, unless hurt or traded (unlikely.) Campbell can also play OF.

I'm 80-90% sure we trade Abreu, but I do see how trading Rafaela might work better. It's not like we keep him because he bats RH'd. His bat is not a plus, although it is better than Abreu's vs LHPs.

Someday, not this year, we might end up seeing this:

C: Teel, Wong

1B: Devers (Casas)

2B: Campbell/Grissom & DHam

SS: Story (Mayer)

3B: Mayer or Campbell/Grissom (Devers)

LF: Abreu (Duran)

CF: Duran, Rafaela (Anthony)

RF: Anthony (Abreu)

DH: Casas (Devers)