5 BOLD predictions for 2025.

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There are bold predictions and there are Wild Ass Pollyanna predictions.  

That's fair, but if he takes his BB% up to something more reasonable like lets say.......4% I think he gets partial credit. 

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's fair, but if he takes his BB% up to something more reasonable like lets say.......4% I think he gets partial credit. 

Agreed, but there doesn't seem to be any blueprint for how that could actually happen.

Ceddanne's last walk was on August 9.  He finished the season on a 39 game (all starts) walkless streak.

mvp has talked about how they've tried to change his approach in the past and it has sort of backfired.

Unfortunately I'm very pessimistic about his future as a hitter.  It's unprecedented for anyone to survive a lack of discipline anywhere near as bad as this.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Agreed, but there doesn't seem to be any blueprint for how that could actually happen.

Ceddanne's last walk was on August 9.  He finished the season on a 39 game (all starts) walkless streak.

mvp has talked about how they've tried to change his approach in the past and it has sort of backfired.

Unfortunately I'm very pessimistic about his future as a hitter.  It's unprecedented for anyone to survive a lack of discipline as bad as this.

Changing an approach and being going from a free swinger to a guy who takes walks is probably the hardest thing in sports.  You have less than a second to make a decision, you're literally trying to re-wire your brain.  

One can hope he continues to develop elite contact skills and can maintain a decent average, occasional power, speed on the bases and elite defense.  I think he will be good if he will do that but he's never going to be great.  Which is why his extension really perplexed me. 

[notin]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Unless he's sent back to the GCL, he's not getting a BB rate of 8%. C'mon man! That's the most bold take of all. 

It's more likely that Soto is playing home games in BOS. 

The title of the thread is BOLD predictions.  We have a separate thread for realistic stuff.  

[notin]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Pivetta has had several 12-18 start stretches over his career, where he looks like a solid #2/3 SP'er, but yes, he has never put together a full solid season as a SP'er.

I just get a sneaky feeling he will turn down the QO and have that season, elsewhere.

Buzz does indicate the strong possibility of Pivetta turning down the QO, which is interesting because this might be the strongest free agent starting pitching market in quite a while.

If Pivetta is really carrying all this intrigue, it’s probably because he’s viewed as the much cheaper option to Burnes/Fried/Snell/Sasaki.  But if too many teams get interested, his appeal as a cheaper (yet sufficient) option should take a hit as the price/years go up…

[Hugh2]

Another BOLD prediction. Pivetta will get over $60 million dollars. 

[Bellhorn04]

22 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Another BOLD prediction. Pivetta will get over $60 million dollars. 

But why exactly?  Wacha got $50 million and his WAR is 40% better than Pivetta's over the last 3 years.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Has a player ever increased his BB rate (full season to full season) 4 fold? I'm guessing very little if ever. 

But, it's certainly a BOLD take so I gotta respect it. 

Re2pect!

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The title of the thread is BOLD predictions.  We have a separate thread for realistic stuff.  

Thank you. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But why exactly?  Wacha got $50 million and his WAR is 40% better than Pivetta's over the last 3 years.

Wait and see.

 

ADD: if I had to legit guess I'd say he's getting closer to 50, I firmly believe he's going to get a lot more than people think he is.  I'm set on that, but this is a BOLD prediction thread.  If anything.....that's not BOLD enough.  

[Hugh2]

Before his extension Tyler Glasnow avg 1.25 WAR per year and got paid 28.5.  

Teams don't just look at stats on fangraphs and weight a certain number of years there's many other various factors will. 

Durability, potential, age, and of course every team has their own internal evaluations of guys.  A team could see two 2.0 WAR pitchers completely different and might pay double for one.  Pivetta misses bats, that usually gets a big premium in FA, it's the equivalent to HR on the hitting side.  There are teams out there who probably look at Nick and see a guy who is a pitch or an adjustment away from being much better than what he's been. 

He's getting money, take that to the bank. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But why exactly?  Wacha got $50 million and his WAR is 40% better than Pivetta's over the last 3 years.

Wacha also re-signed immediately and didn’t have multiple bidders driving up the price…

[notin]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Wait and see.

 

ADD: if I had to legit guess I'd say he's getting closer to 50, I firmly believe he's going to get a lot more than people think he is.  I'm set on that, but this is a BOLD prediction thread.  If anything.....that's not BOLD enough.  

If interest in Pivetta is as reported, a 4 year $60mill contract seems light…

[Bellhorn04]

OK, my bold prediction is that Pivetta does not top $50 million.

[Hugh2]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, my bold prediction is that Pivetta does not top $50 million.

So then is my prediction he gets over 60 million not BOLD? or is only between 50-60 not bold?

[mvp 78]

Bold prediction #6 for 2025: 

Posters on TalkSox learn to no longer pick nits. 

🤝

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's the 'snakebit' feeling.

It just seemed like the team was snake-bitten starting in 2019. Injuries, unexplained major decline years, here and there.

So many of our biggest signings and extension players getting hurt, underperforming or both.

The ALE getting very strong, then just when they really balance the schedule more than ever, the ALE was not as good. Things like that pile up.

Then, the back-breaker Sale trade.