Article: Masataka Yoshida’s Shoulder Injury Threatens Season Start and Trade Value

[moonslav59]

I do think SEA and all but one fan would love to have Casas on their roster.

It's funny, how that fan uses BTV, but when we talk of trading for Castillo, all of a sudden the -$30 value Castillo is worth more than Mayer.

BTV would accept Yoshida for Castillo +$7M cash.

That same fan keeps saying, but we don't need Mayer, because we have a SS, then suggested we add our 8th OF'er.

 

[harmony]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think SEA and all but one fan would love to have Casas on their roster.

It's funny, how that fan uses BTV, but when we talk of trading for Castillo, all of a sudden the -$30 value Castillo is worth more than Mayer.

BTV would accept Yoshida for Castillo +$7M cash.

That same fan keeps saying, but we don't need Mayer, because we have a SS, then suggested we add our 8th OF'er.

 

Your disinformation sullies the forum.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, harmony said:

Disinformation sullies the forum.

I've always appreciated your posts. It's nice to see someone own what they do.

[notin]

8 hours ago, harmony said:

Disinformation sullies the forum.

Without disinformation, all we’d have is speculation, confirmation bias, and hyperbole.   Disinformation is the closest thing we have to information!! 

[harmony]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Without disinformation, all we’d have is speculation, confirmation bias, and hyperbole.   Disinformation is the closest thing we have to information!! 

Misinformation occurs when someone carelessly posts that BTV accepts a trade of Randy Arozarena for Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas when in fact BTV suggests the trade would be a significant overpay by the Mariners.

Disinformation occurs when someone intentionally and knowingly posts inaccurate information.

Opinions can be based on disinformation or misinformation but are not facts themselves.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, harmony said:

Misinformation occurs when someone carelessly posts that BTV accepts a trade of Randy Arozarena for Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas when in fact BTV suggests the trade would be a significant overpay by the Mariners.

Disinformation occurs when someone intentionally and knowingly posts inaccurate information.

Opinions can be based on disinformation or misinformation but are not facts themselves.

And hyperbole is exaggerating information to make a point, like calling Arozarena an “eighth outfielder”.  Certainly no team dedicates 30% of their roster to outfielders, very few (if any) teams have seven outfielders better than Arozarena. But the point was obvious - outfield isn’t a big need in Boston, and certainly not one they would clear Casas to fill.

 

I consider the Casas/Arozarena trade to be ill-timed.  Last week, before Casas value was adjusted, it would have worked.

 

But saying Seattle would only trade for Yoshida “if they got something of value” could be classified as speculation and/or disinformation.  None of us has access to their internal evaluations or knows how they feel about Yoshida and Garver…

[Duran Is The Man]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

And hyperbole is exaggerating information to make a point, like calling Arozarena an “eighth outfielder”.  Certainly no team dedicates 30% of their roster to outfielders, very few (if any) teams have seven outfielders better than Arozarena. But the point was obvious - outfield isn’t a big need in Boston, and certainly not one they would clear Casas to fill.

 

I consider the Casas/Arozarena trade to be ill-timed.  Last week, before Casas value was adjusted, it would have worked.

 

But saying Seattle would only trade for Yoshida “if they got something of value” could be classified as speculation and/or disinformation.  None of us has access to their internal evaluations or knows how they feel about Yoshida and Garver…

any thought of giving up a player like Casas just to get rid of Masa is insane, when Boston could just pay him to go away.

[harmony]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

And hyperbole is exaggerating information to make a point, like calling Arozarena an “eighth outfielder”.  Certainly no team dedicates 30% of their roster to outfielders, very few (if any) teams have seven outfielders better than Arozarena. But the point was obvious - outfield isn’t a big need in Boston, and certainly not one they would clear Casas to fill.

 

I consider the Casas/Arozarena trade to be ill-timed.  Last week, before Casas value was adjusted, it would have worked.

 

But saying Seattle would only trade for Yoshida “if they got something of value” could be classified as speculation and/or disinformation.  None of us has access to their internal evaluations or knows how they feel about Yoshida and Garver…

The opinion, indeed speculation but not factual disinformation, was "Which is precisely why the Mariners prefer Mitch Garver over Masataka Yoshida unless they're getting an important piece back."

https://talksox.com/forums/topic/88951-article-masataka-yoshidas-shoulder-injury-threatens-season-start-and-trade-value/page/4/#comment-2983176

 

[notin]

24 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

any thought of giving up a player like Casas just to get rid of Masa is insane, when Boston could just pay him to go away.

Agreed.

This isn’t like Mookie, who had one year left, made $27mill, and couldn’t come to an agreement on his extension…

[moonslav59]

And hyperbole is exaggerating information to make a point, like calling Arozarena an “eighth outfielder”.

-notin

I did not mean 8th ranked OF'er: I meant 8th ML or ML ready player on the Sox, who can play OF.

7 Current (Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Ref, Yoshida, Anthony, Campbell) + 1.

 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed.

This isn’t like Mookie, who had one year left, made $27mill, and couldn’t come to an agreement on his extension…

We could have just paid Price to go away (or half Price.)

We chose to get a lesser return from LAD, if they took half-Price off our hands.

Of course, that is way different than losing Casas, but the theory is similar.

According to BTV, Yoshida is about as "underwater" as Castillo, but I don't want to be accused of spreading mis or dis information.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

any thought of giving up a player like Casas just to get rid of Masa is insane, when Boston could just pay him to go away.

It's why they shouldn't have added Price to the Mookie trade. It lessened the franchise altering return. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

But saying Seattle would only trade for Yoshida “if they got something of value” could be classified as speculation and/or disinformation.  None of us has access to their internal evaluations or knows how they feel about Yoshida and Garver…

At that point, we could never discuss any future trade ever as we have access to no internal evaluations of any team for any player. 

[notin]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At that point, we could never discuss any future trade ever as we have access to no internal evaluations of any team for any player. 

Why?  
 

There’s a difference between saying “I don’t like that trade” and “Boston doesn’t want that player”.  And merely saying a trade works on BTV doesn’t mean the deal makes sense for one or both sides.  Kristian Campbell for Garrett Crochet works on BTV.  Does it make sense for BOTH teams?  (It’s actually not bad.) Miguel Bleis, David Hamilton, Cooper Criswell, and Brennan Bernardino for Garret Crochet also works on BTV.  Does it make sense for BOTH teams? (Clearly horrible for Chicago.) There’s a clear difference there without even knowing insider info…

[notin]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's why they shouldn't have added Price to the Mookie trade. It lessened the franchise altering return. 

It did.  But I’m not so sure how franchise-altering the return is for one year of a $27mill player.  Even the Padres had to keep dealing after moving Soto…

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

It did.  But I’m not so sure how franchise-altering the return is for one year of a $27mill player.  Even the Padres had to keep dealing after moving Soto…

What would you rather have:

Verdugo, Downs, Wong

King, Brito, Vasquez, Thorpe (used to acquire Clease), Higashioka

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What would you rather have:

Verdugo, Downs, Wong

King, Brito, Vasquez, Thorpe (used to acquire Clease), Higashioka

That’s a no-brainer.  I take Verdugo, Downs and Wong.  

Can you imagine the fallout if the Sox traded Betts TO THE YANKEES!?!!

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We could have just paid Price to go away (or half Price.)

We chose to get a lesser return from LAD, if they took half-Price off our hands.

Of course, that is way different than losing Casas, but the theory is similar.

According to BTV, Yoshida is about as "underwater" as Castillo, but I don't want to be accused of spreading mis or dis information.

More than one forum poster here suggested that Luis Castillo is undervalued at Baseball Trade Values.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, harmony said:

More than one forum poster here suggested that Luis Castillo is undervalued at Baseball Trade Values.

I think he is.

But they are basing it on several projections vs the remainder of his contract.  Obviously it’s the Steamers of the baseball world who do not appreciate him.  BTV is just applying that lack of respect.

Of course this also creates the possibility that Yoshida is similarly undervalued…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's why they shouldn't have added Price to the Mookie trade. It lessened the franchise altering return. 

I think it was 700, who said he felt like Price was not a drag on the return.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, harmony said:

More than one forum poster here suggested that Luis Castillo is undervalued at Baseball Trade Values.

I am one of those, and I have suggested trades to SEA offering way more than BTV says is needed.

My point was that you seem to act like BTV means something, when it involved us overvaluing a SOx player.

You also often say, SEA "does not need another ___ (SS)." and that is why I pointed out us not needing another OF'er.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think it was 700, who said he felt like Price was not a drag on the return.

Well in that case!

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

I think he is.

But they are basing it on several projections vs the remainder of his contract.  Obviously it’s the Steamers of the baseball world who do not appreciate him.  BTV is just applying that lack of respect.

Of course this also creates the possibility that Yoshida is similarly undervalued…

To me, Castillo is easily worth his remaining contract of $22.75M x 3 with a conditional and seperate vesting option for 2028 at $5M or $25M. He also has a full no-trade contract, but he might agree to be traded.

BTV seems way off on him.

I also think Yoshida should be worth less than -$23M. He's owed $54M, so they think his actual value is worth $7M a year. (I'd say $4-6M.)

[harmony]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I am one of those, and I have suggested trades to SEA offering way more than BTV says is needed.

My point was that you seem to act like BTV means something, when it involved us overvaluing a SOx player.

You also often say, SEA "does not need another ___ (SS)." and that is why I pointed out us not needing another OF'er.

The Mariners have greater needs than at shortstop.

J.P. Crawford, a year removed from a 4.9 fWAR season, remains under team control through 2026 at reasonable annual salaries of $10 million and $11 million.

Seattle has three shortstop prospects ranked in MLB.com's Top 100 overall: Colt Emerson at No. 27, Cole Young at No. 38 and barely 19-year-old Felnin Celesten at No. 66. Rather than surrendering value for Marcelo Mayer, the Mariners would probably prefer to spread their risk across those three shortstop prospects.

Will the Red Sox be in the market for a righthanded power bat?

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, Castillo is easily worth his remaining contract of $22.75M x 3 with a conditional and seperate vesting option for 2028 at $5M or $25M. He also has a full no-trade contract, but he might agree to be traded.

BTV seems way off on him.

I also think Yoshida should be worth less than -$23M. He's owed $54M, so they think his actual value is worth $7M a year. (I'd say $4-6M.)

According to FanGraphs, Castillo was only worth 18M this year, so he's underwater if that production stays the same. I think that's why BTV is projecting some regression leading to negative overall value for Castillo. If he leaves the friendly confines of SEA and head to a more hitter friendly stadium. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

The Mariners have greater needs than at shortstop.

J.P. Crawford, a year removed from a 4.9 fWAR season, remains under team control through 2026 at reasonable annual salaries of $10 million and $11 million.

Seattle has three shortstop prospects ranked in MLB.com's Top 100 overall: Colt Emerson at No. 27, Cole Young at No. 38 and barely 19-year-old Felnin Celesten at No. 66. Rather than surrendering value for Marcelo Mayer, the Mariners would probably prefer to spread their risk across those three shortstop prospects.

Will the Red Sox be in the market for a righthanded power bat?

Crawford may be just one year removed from a really great season, but in general he's only been an average player at best. I'm not sure you can count on 2023 production going forward. 

21 3.8 bWAR

22 2.7 bWAR

23 5.1 bWAR (career high 133 OPS+, 101 career OPS+)

24 2.7 bWAR

[harmony]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crawford may be just one year removed from a really great season, but in general he's only been an average player at best. I'm not sure you can count on 2023 production going forward. 

21 3.8 bWAR

22 2.7 bWAR

23 5.1 bWAR (career high 133 OPS+, 101 career OPS+)

24 2.7 bWAR

At an annual salary of $10-11 million, 2.7 bWAR is a bargain.

In a down year this season, Crawford posted his bWAR of 2.7 in 105 games while Tyler O'Neill, who is the same age, is lauded for posting 2.7 bWAR in 113 games.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

At an annual salary of $10-11 million, 2.7 bWAR is a bargain.

In a down year this season, Crawford posted his bWAR of 2.7 in 105 games while Tyler O'Neill, who is the same age, is lauded for posting 2.7 bWAR in 113 games.

Is he worth his contract? Yes. Should harmony count on him repeating 2023? No. 

Castillo and Crawford are two different conversations, so I don't want to start confusing the subjects. I'm assuming Crawford has a positive value on BTV. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Mariners have greater needs than at shortstop.

J.P. Crawford, a year removed from a 4.9 fWAR season, remains under team control through 2026 at reasonable annual salaries of $10 million and $11 million.

Seattle has three shortstop prospects ranked in MLB.com's Top 100 overall: Colt Emerson at No. 27, Cole Young at No. 38 and barely 19-year-old Felnin Celesten at No. 66. Rather than surrendering value for Marcelo Mayer, the Mariners would probably prefer to spread their risk across those three shortstop prospects.

Will the Red Sox be in the market for a righthanded power bat?

I totally understand your point about SEA not needing a SS, and it informed me as to another possible offer being better.

When you suggested trading an OF'er to the Sox, I informed you, that an OF'er is about the last thing we need.

Yes, we need a RHB, but I do not think in the OF, despite the fact that we signed O'Neill, last winter.

If Abreu was part of the trade to SEA, then maybe we'd take a RHB OF'er as part a larger package. In terms of the Sox getting what we need, we need pitching.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

According to FanGraphs, Castillo was only worth 18M this year, so he's underwater if that production stays the same. I think that's why BTV is projecting some regression leading to negative overall value for Castillo. If he leaves the friendly confines of SEA and head to a more hitter friendly stadium. 

That has to be it, but boy, they sure projected a steep regression.

His numbers in SEA do have to be adjusted for park factors, but to me, he's a damn good pitcher. He'd be our #2 and maybe even a #1, if Houck takes a step back in '25.