A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

They’re from the mindset of “we need to run Yoshida out of town and pretend the Sox will spend the savings!!”  
 

So I can see where madman fits…

You might say Yoshida is a victim of analytics.  He's a better than average hitter and yet the analytics say he's a worse than average player.

[Larry Cook]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

No more heavily than Boston is…

Maybe Bergman ends up staying with Houston. 
I guess we have to wait for spring training to see if anybody gets aggressive on pivetta 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

No more heavily than Boston is…

They seem more interested in lowering their budget, as they are shopping Suzuki.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You might say Yoshida is a victim of analytics.  He's a better than average hitter and yet the analytics say he's a worse than average player.

fWAR adds (or subtracts) positional value, and so, DH's get dinged, even if they hit well.

Papi's highest fWARs were...

6.3 in 2007

5.3 in '06

5.3 in '05

4.6 in his last season

His "positional values," those years were between -15 and -17. I'm not sure what his WAR would be, if he had just a 0 positional value.

Yoshida is a plus hitter, but his awful LF D, which forces him to be a DH only player really does hurt the team by about as much as his bat helps.

[notin]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They seem more interested in lowering their budget, as they are shopping Suzuki.

Reportedly Suzuki was not wild about being primarily a DH.  But with Gold Glover Happ in LF, future multi-Gold Glove winner Pete Crow-Armstrong in CF, and superstar Kyle Tucker in RF, where else could he play?

I think he played some 2b/3b in Japan, but the Cubs have filled those roles with incumbent Nico Hoerner and former first rounder Matt Shaw.  DH is the best fit.

So I’m not so sure this deal is about cutting salary.  Although it might a factor if the Cubs hope to extend Tucker…

[moonslav59]

If HOU gets Bregman, they still need a LHB in the OF and might want to dump some salary.

How about this...

Abreu, DHam, Cespedes & Fitts

for

3B Isaac Paredes RHP ($6.6M and 2 more arbs) + C  Victor Carating ($6M/1 then FA)

[notin]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe Bergman ends up staying with Houston. 
I guess we have to wait for spring training to see if anybody gets aggressive on pivetta 

Boston should bring back Pivetta and deal Crawford for a RHH third baseman.  Bohm? Paredes? Either one creates an opening for Bregman, thus officially ending the off-season…

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

Boston should bring back Pivetta and deal Crawford for a RHH third baseman.  Bohm? Paredes? Either one creates an opening for Bregman, thus officially ending the off-season…

Crawford, Kelly and Abreu for Paredes and Cartini

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford, Kelly and Abreu for Paredes and Cartini

Why not just DFA Abreu if you’re giving him away in that deal?

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Why not just DFA Abreu if you’re giving him away in that deal?

Paredes is no give away. You are not getting Paredes for Crawford, straight up.

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

 

[harmony]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Paredes is no give away. You are not getting Paredes for Crawford, straight up.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values on January 31 assigned Isaac Paredes a surplus value of $32.2 million while assigning Kutter Crawford a surplus value of $32.1 million on Wednesday and $29.7 million on Saturday.

[harmony]

An outsider's somewhat optimistic view of the 2025 Red Sox:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uNOYn_PSug

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values on January 31 assigned Isaac Paredes a surplus value of $32.2 million while assigning Kutter Crawford a surplus value of $32.1 million on Wednesday and $29.7 million on Saturday.

I don't see HOU doing this deal. They need offense. They have SP'ers, although they have more battling recent injuries than we do, which is not easy.

We can afford to lose Crawford, and if we add the RHB Paredes, we can also afford to part with a LHB that HOU desperately needs in Abreu.

It's not my favorite plan to start the season with a Yoshida-Ref platoon in LF, but they would likely combined for an .800+ OPS. Duran can play CF, well and Anthony/Campbell could play RF, if Rafaela stumbles.

1. L Duran CF

2. L Devers 1B/DH

3. R Paredes 3B

4. L Casas DH/1B

5. L Yoshida/R Refsnyder LF

6. R Story SS

7. L Anthony RF/ R Campbell RF/2B (choose one: no platoon) 

8. R Campbell 2B or R Rafaela CF or L DHam- R Romy platoon at 2B

9. R Cartini/ RWong  C

I like this line-up better than 2024's. The D is better at 3B and C and worse in LF

[harmony]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see HOU doing this deal. They need offense. They have SP'ers, although they have more battling recent injuries than we do, which is not easy.

We can afford to lose Crawford, and if we add the RHB Paredes, we can also afford to part with a LHB that HOU desperately needs in Abreu.

Roster Resource currently lists Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski as the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 starters for the Astros with J.P. France, Luis Garica, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. on the injured list:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

The Astros should be interested in a Wilyer Abreu reunion and could offer Isaac Paredes if Alex Bregman re-signs with Houston.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, harmony said:

An outsider's somewhat optimistic view of the 2025 Red Sox:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uNOYn_PSug

 

Kind of an encouraging video.

They call our 1-6 line-up maybe the top in the ALE, without even mentioning Refsnyder. If you count Wong in the 1-7, who had a plus wRC+ in 2024, maybe it stretches to 1-7. (Our #8-9 do not look awful, either.)

They spoke of how "atrocious" our defense is, and all the missed winter opportunities to improve it- most notably on Bregman or Arenado. They do not even discuss Yoshida/Ref to LF. They see trading Casas as the only option, if we add a 3Bman, or adding a prospect to Yoshida to trade him. They even suggested sending Casas or Yoshida to AAA, until an injury happens.

They spoke of Bregman at 2B, since he had the weakest 3B arm in 2024. As expected, they spoke of the youth that can fill in at our highest need areas: 2B, SS and maybe OF. Having Mayer at SS and Story or Campbell at 2B would "greatly improve" the team defense.

We have to fix the lefty unbalance in the line-up, "at some point."

They feel Buehler being projected as our 5th best SP'er is wrong. They think he's our #2. They still think the Yanks rotation is better. (I'll write about this, soon.)

They "feel good" about the pen, but not great. Good AAA depth.

Overall, they say we have strengths on offense, the rotation and the pen, and our only weakness is the defense. Injuries has been our "issue," recently.

They speak of the Yanks having less depth, in case of major injuries. The Sox are better equipped to handle any injury, except Devers. They need "health on their side."

One guy questions Cora's quality.

 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, harmony said:

Roster Resource currently lists Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski as the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 starters for the Astros with J.P. France, Luis Garica, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. on the injured list:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

The Astros should be interested in a Wilyer Abreu reunion and could offer Isaac Paredes if Alex Bregman re-signs with Houston.

Maybe including Crawford to get Paredes and Cartini is an overpay, but I am super high on Paredes and maybe lower than most on Crawford.

I'm not sure HOU takes Abreu, Fitts or Priester and Cespedes for Paredes and Cartini.

[moonslav59]

Let's compare the Sox rotation to the Yankees.

fangraphs has the Sox rotation projected as #1 in the AL (#4 in MLB) and the NYY at #6 (3rd in the AL, behind BOS & SEA.)

We all know there are way to many questions concerning the Sox rotation that we'd like, but maybe we don't realize how many questions surround the Yankee rotation, too.

The Sox:

4.5 Crochet- questions about durability as a SP'er are legit.

2.9 Houck- can he repeat 2024 and maybe give more IP?

2.6 Bello- can he improve on 2023, as 2024 was worse?

1.8 Buehler- health, health, health?

1.6 Crawford- another guy who was better in '23, but showed durability in '23.

1.2 Giolito- the Sox are the only team with 6 guys at 1.2 plus.

(Sandoval, Fitts, Criswell, Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer offer nice depth.)

The Yanks

3.4 Fried: just turned 31 and has 5 straight seasons of excellent pitching (151 ERA+) and 112 GS out of a possible 140-142ish. Not really an injury concern, but maybe his age will start showing, soon.

3.0 Cole: He was one of the most dependable SP'ers from 2017-2023, averaging about as many starts as possible, every year. He was also about as close to the best from 2018-2023 as can be with a 146 ERA+. He and Fried offer a very formidable 1-2 punch. The only real questions is about 2024 and his age. He turns 35 in September and missed half the 2024 season with injury. His 121 ERA+ was still very good, but was a big drop from his league-leading 165 in 2023.

2.6 Rodon: nobody can claim he is not a huge question mark. This guy only started 33 out of about 76 starts from 2019-2021, then went 31>14>32 in the last 3 seasons- a clear step up, but not really heart-warming dependability. His ERA+ in the past 3 seasons have been about as unpredictable as anyone in MLB: 137>63>104 (103 combined is nothing to get jacked up over.) His 116 ERA+ since 2021 is something to like, though.

1.7 Gil: This 26 year old has enormous promise, no doubt, and he started 29 games in 2024 with a 117 ERA+. His lack of GS'd before last year is the big issue: 20 in 2021 (6 in MLB) and 7 in '23 (1 in MLB) While he certainly looks better than Bello & Crawford, is he more reliable? (Bello had a 107 ERA+ in '23 and Crawford's was 113- not too far from Gil's 2024 number.) Gil's 4.6 BB/9 in 2024 is also a major concern.

1.7 Schmidt: He turns 29, soon, so is in peak prime. He had an excellent 2024 season, in terms of pitching well (146 ERA+,) but the 16 GS was his issue. He did start 62 games from '22-'23, so maybe, missing time is not a major concern. He has a 109 ERA+ over the past 3 seasons, but 106 over the past 2 seasons. Crawford's is 104 and Bello's is 101. He looks better than Bello and Crawford, but it is no sure bet he out pitches them in '25.

0.9 Stroman: He is reportedly being shopped, so maybe he won't even be on their 26 to start the season. To me, he is about equal to Giolito, in terms of production. Gio missed 2024, but Stroman started just 11 games from 2019-2020 out of 45.

(Brubaker, Warren & Hampston as so-so depth) I'll take our depth over this, 7 days a week. If the Yanks trade Stroman, they could be one injury away from something awful.

 

[notin]

On 2/8/2025 at 9:26 PM, moonslav59 said:

Paredes is no give away. You are not getting Paredes for Crawford, straight up.

Why is Crawford a giveaway?  Or Abreu?

You think 4 years of a 2.0 bWAR SP plus 5 years of a 3.1 bWAR right fielder is worth 3 years of a 2.7 bWAR third baseman?

And I looked on BTV

Abreu - $35.3 mill

Crawford - $29.7mill

Paredes - $29.5mill

 

It seems as though at least one source thinks Crawford for Paredes is even…

 

[Hitch]

On 2/8/2025 at 6:01 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

You might say Yoshida is a victim of analytics.  He's a better than average hitter and yet the analytics say he's a worse than average player.

He's a victim of being a 1 tool player. He can hit a bit. And that's literally it.

[Hitch]

I wouldn't hate Paredes. He's cheap, RH'ed, but low batting average, okay defence, not much power. 

I'm not sure he's the guy you get to upset Devers. 

 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Why is Crawford a giveaway?  Or Abreu?

You think 4 years of a 2.0 bWAR SP plus 5 years of a 3.1 bWAR right fielder is worth 3 years of a 2.7 bWAR third baseman?

And I looked on BTV

Abreu - $35.3 mill

Crawford - $29.7mill

Paredes - $29.5mill

 

It seems as though at least one source thinks Crawford for Paredes is even…

 

I already responded to this point, and I suggested a lesser offer. I also included 1 year Cartini coming back to us.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

I wouldn't hate Paredes. He's cheap, RH'ed, but low batting average, okay defence, not much power. 

I'm not sure he's the guy you get to upset Devers. 

I've heard he is plas on D, but that might just be the biased media, down here in Houston. Metrics show clear plus, but not great on D.

 

"Not much power?" He hit 31 bombs in 2023 and averaged 27 per 162 games from '23-'24.

His .244 BA is not ideal, but he's walked enough to have a near .350 OBP, in the past 2 years. That would have placed second on the Sox in 2024.

Plus D, Plus Power and Plus OB skills.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've heard he is plas on D, but that might just be the biased media, down here in Houston. Metrics show clear plus, but not great on D.

 

"Not much power?" He hit 31 bombs in 2023 and averaged 27 per 162 games from '23-'24.

His .244 BA is not ideal, but he's walked enough to have a near .350 OBP, in the past 2 years. That would have placed second on the Sox in 2024.

Plus D, Plus Power and Plus OB skills.

22 - 20 HR's in 111 games

23 - 31 Hr's in 143 games

24 - 19 HR's in 153 games.

I'm not sure I'm ready to call him a big power option at the moment. He's young, though. and his OPB isn't bad, though it was .300 in 22. The defensive stats I've seen have him around league average, but I may have been wrong/read them without my glasses.

Like I said, I don't hate him, in fact I'd be alright with it for the right deal, but I'm not sure he's enough to say to Devers - we're moving you/making part time DH.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Hitch said:

22 - 20 HR's in 111 games

23 - 31 Hr's in 143 games

24 - 19 HR's in 153 games.

I'm not sure I'm ready to call him a big power option at the moment. He's young, though. and his OPB isn't bad, though it was .300 in 22. The defensive stats I've seen have him around league average, but I may have been wrong/read them without my glasses.

Like I said, I don't hate him, in fact I'd be alright with it for the right deal, but I'm not sure he's enough to say to Devers - we're moving you/making part time DH.

I was responding to the "not much power" comment, and I think 27 HRs per 162 is quite a bit of power.

Devers has topped 27 HRs 3 times in 7 years (6 not counting 2020, when he was on pace for 26.)

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was responding to the "not much power" comment, and I think 27 HRs per 162 is quite a bit of power.

Devers has topped 27 HRs 3 times in 7 years (6 not counting 2020, when he was on pace for 26.)

Per 162, Devers has been over 30 HR's every year from 2019-2024. Over that stretch, he's at 34 per 162.

[Hitch]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was responding to the "not much power" comment, and I think 27 HRs per 162 is quite a bit of power.

Devers has topped 27 HRs 3 times in 7 years (6 not counting 2020, when he was on pace for 26.)

He showed good power in 23. Last year, not so much. Nor 22. And nothing in the admittedly small sample size of previous years. 

As I mentioned it could be down to age. Maybe he will develop into more of a power bat. but again, we can't divorce it form the fact we'd be telling our best player he's moving off 3rd base and possibly becoming a part time DH. Neither of which he appears to be overly excited about. 

Hard to argue against a 9 time GG 3rd baseman taking your spot. For Paredes, not so much.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hitch said:

He showed good power in 23. Last year, not so much. Nor 22. And nothing in the admittedly small sample size of previous years. 

As I mentioned it could be down to age. Maybe he will develop into more of a power bat. but again, we can't divorce it form the fact we'd be telling our best player he's moving off 3rd base and possibly becoming a part time DH. Neither of which he appears to be overly excited about. 

Hard to argue against a 9 time GG 3rd baseman taking your spot. For Paredes, not so much.

xSLG by year

'22 17th percentile

'23 17th percentile

'24 11th percentile

He doesn't barrel the ball. He doesn't have good exit velo or hard hit %. He just has good k and bb %s. Yoshida's Statcast page looks better than Paredes'. He is slower than Yoshida too. He's also not a FB hitter so wouldn't take advantage of the Monster. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've heard he is plas on D, but that might just be the biased media, down here in Houston. Metrics show clear plus, but not great on D.

 

"Not much power?" He hit 31 bombs in 2023 and averaged 27 per 162 games from '23-'24.

His .244 BA is not ideal, but he's walked enough to have a near .350 OBP, in the past 2 years. That would have placed second on the Sox in 2024.

Plus D, Plus Power and Plus OB skills.

Dead pull hitter, too.  72 career home runs, all of them to left field…

[notin]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe including Crawford to get Paredes and Cartini is an overpay, but I am super high on Paredes and maybe lower than most on Crawford.

I'm not sure HOU takes Abreu, Fitts or Priester and Cespedes for Paredes and Cartini.

Abreu makes sense.  He isn’t going to replace Tucker in that lineup, but not many can.  A 3 WAR Gold Glove right fielder is a definite upgrade over the Jake Meyers/Chas McCormack/Ben Gamel types that appear destined to start for Houston…