A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

C'mon. STL wants to drop salary, not take on more. Please join us in the real world. 

technically they'd be saving about $7.5 million a year, but yes I agree that they're going to want more salary relief than that. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

C'mon. STL wants to drop salary, not take on more. Please join us in the real world. 

If Sox pay 1/3 of Yoshida's salary, STL would shed about 18.5 mill.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If Sox pay 1/3 of Yoshida's salary, STL would shed about 18.5 mill.

They'd give up a 3 WAR player they are paying 25M (CBT), to take on a 1.5 WAR player at 12M who can only DH? How does this help them?   

Masa has been worth 11.3M his entire career. Why pay him 12M annually? Over that same time period, Arenado has been worth 23.4M each season. His contract makes sense. Masa's doesn't. Sox would have to eat 2/3's of the contract for it to be worth it. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Are Zanetello and Jordan really that valuable? You have to give someone up

Zanetello still has an outside chance. If MLB hadn't messed up MiLB a few years ago, he would have started in Lowell and maybe his development track would look better.

I'd dump Jordan. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'd give up a 3 WAR player they are paying 25M (CBT), to take on a 1.5 WAR player at 12M who can only DH? How does this help them?   

Masa has been worth 11.3M his entire career. Why pay him 12M annually? Over that same time period, Arenado has been worth 23.4M each season. His contract makes sense. Masa's doesn't. Sox would have to eat 2/3's of the contract for it to be worth it. 

a) Arenado's AAV is 30.55 million.

b) I don't think anyone is penciling him in for 3WAR * 3.  If you did a 3 year projection it's probably more like 6 total.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Zanetello still has an outside chance. If MLB hadn't messed up MiLB a few years ago, he would have started in Lowell and maybe his development track would look better.

I'd dump Jordan. 

On a past Sox podcast they said something about no one has ever had a season like he's had an become a big leaguer or something like that idk, maybe it was they never accumulated more than 1 wAR or something.  

a 44% K rate is pretty awful.

Again, reiterating my earlier point that I'm not advocating for this trade just making sense of the rumor's, and I plugged those names in because they were rumored to be floating around. 

But if I was the Sox, and I liked Arenado, I saw his medicals and I was convinced he was going to bounce back a little, I would certainly not blink at getting a deal done over Zanetello. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

a) Arenado's AAV is 30.55 million.

b) I don't think anyone is penciling him in for 3WAR * 3.  If you did a 3 year projection it's probably more like 6 total.

a) 5M is being paid by COL

b) is anyone penciling Masa in for more than 1 WAR * 3? 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

On a past Sox podcast they said something about no one has ever had a season like he's had an become a big leaguer or something like that idk, maybe it was they never accumulated more than 1 wAR or something.  

a 44% K rate is pretty awful.

Again, reiterating my earlier point that I'm not advocating for this trade just making sense of the rumor's, and I plugged those names in because they were rumored to be floating around. 

But if I was the Sox, and I liked Arenado, I saw his medicals and I was convinced he was going to bounce back a little, I would certainly not blink at getting a deal done over Zanetello. 

He was terrible, but he shouldn't have been in Low A. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

a) 5M is being paid by COL

b) is anyone penciling Masa in for more than 1 WAR * 3? 

a) Right, my bad.

b) Chaim Bloom, possibly.

Hey, I'm just happy we've found something to kick around here.

 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He was terrible, but he shouldn't have been in Low A. 

He's not old for the level, but it's not like 19 is terribly age advance for low a ball.  It's not like they skipped him over 2 levels and played him at AA and he was blown away.  He was in low A his second year and striking out 44% of the time.

Listen, I'd love Zanetello to be a stud one day but it seems insanely unlikely at this point.  It's far more likely Arenado is healthy and plays at an all star level again.  And I'm skeptical on that one too. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

a) Right, my bad.

b) Chaim Bloom, possibly.

Hey, I'm just happy we've found something to kick around here.

 

We've kicked around Masa enough. We're stuck with him and he's going to have his best season in 2025. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

He's not old for the level, but it's not like 19 is terribly age advance for low a ball.  It's not like they skipped him over 2 levels and played him at AA and he was blown away.  He was in low A his second year and striking out 44% of the time.

Listen, I'd love Zanetello to be a stud one day but it seems insanely unlikely at this point.  It's far more likely Arenado is healthy and plays at an all star level again.  And I'm skeptical on that one too. 

SP said over and over again that Zanetello and Antonio Andersen were guys whose development needed to be slow and methodical and pushed through short season (see Keith Law's write up). I'm unsure about what "not old for the level" or "terribly age advance" even means. Each player has different needs for development. Miguel Bleis OPS'd 607 in Low A at age 19 and he's the sixth ranked prospect for some reason. 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We've kicked around Masa enough. We're stuck with him and he's going to have his best season in 2025. 

OK, so what do we do with the troika of Raffy/Casas/Masa if they do trade for Arenado?

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

SP said over and over again that Zanetello and Antonio Andersen were guys whose development needed to be slow and methodical and pushed through short season (see Keith Law's write up). I'm unsure about what "not old for the level" or "terribly age advance" even means. Each player has different needs for development. Miguel Bleis OPS'd 607 in Low A at age 19 and he's the sixth ranked prospect for some reason. 

And yet he (Miguel Bleis) only struck out 19% of the time, literally less than 1/2 the rate of Nazzan who was just another level of lost at the plate.  

I'm not sure how many players strike out 44% of the time in the low minors and become big leaguers, I don't think anyone has.

Those guys over at SP also have said Bleis is where he is because of his pedigree and raw tools, but if he has another bad season he's going to fall.  If he puts up another sub .600 OPS he will be out of the top 20. 

I get that Nazzan has that 2nd round pick pedigree, but more of those guys have missed the majors than made it for us. Cameron Canon, Nick Decker, Cole Brenan, C.J. Catham.  You have to go back ten years to find a 2nd round pick who made the majors for us and that was sub .700 Sam Travis. 

I like Nazzan, but all he has is a high draft pick pedigree.  I hope he can turn it around, but he looks like a bust and I certainly wouldn't let him hold up a trade. 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, so what do we do with the troika of Raffy/Casas/Masa if they do trade for Arenado?

It's quite the mess, but it's not Bloom's mess anymore IMO. 

Sox either need to DFA (unlikely at this point), trade for pennies on the dollar, trade Casas/Abreu or just use Masa as the 4th OFer clogging up the bench.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

And yet he (Miguel Bleis) only struck out 19% of the time, literally less than 1/2 the rate of Nazzan who was just another level of lost at the plate.  

I'm not sure how many players strike out 44% of the time in the low minors and become big leaguers, I don't think anyone has.

Those guys over at SP also have said Bleis is where he is because of his pedigree and raw tools, but if he has another bad season he's going to fall.  If he puts up another sub .600 OPS he will be out of the top 20. 

I get that Nazzan has that 2nd round pick pedigree, but more of those guys have missed the majors than made it for us. Cameron Canon, Nick Decker, Cole Brenan, C.J. Catham.  You have to go back ten years to find a 2nd round pick who made the majors for us and that was sub .700 Sam Travis. 

I like Nazzan, but all he has is a high draft pick pedigree.  I hope he can turn it around, but he looks like a bust and I certainly wouldn't let him hold up a trade. 

Zanetello was drafted because he was supposedly a 5 tool guy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Roman Anthony is a 2nd round comp pick. I guess he will not be making the MLB team. Somebody trade Payton Tolle already. He's toast! 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Zanetello was drafted because he was supposedly a 5 tool guy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Roman Anthony is a 2nd round comp pick. I guess he will not be making the MLB team. Somebody trade Payton Tolle already. He's toast! 

Yes, as is with my point, some guys pan out and some do not.  The fact that Roman Anthony looks good and 8 other guys do not doesn't mean that me saying Zanetello is a bust means I'm also saying Roman Anthony will not make the majors.  Completely not my statement. 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's quite the mess, but it's not Bloom's mess anymore IMO. 

Sox either need to DFA (unlikely at this point), trade for pennies on the dollar, trade Casas/Abreu or just use Masa as the 4th OFer clogging up the bench.

So why not trade for Arenado and, separately or not, trade Yoshida for as much salary as you can dump?  Assuming Devers accepts the transition, all of a sudden you have a roster that makes some sense.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, as is with my point, some guys pan out and some do not.  The fact that Roman Anthony looks good and 8 other guys do not doesn't mean that me saying Zanetello is a bust means I'm also saying Roman Anthony will not make the majors.  Completely not my statement. 

If we're giving older Bleis ANOTHER year to prove it, why not Zanetello? I'm not saying he has a ton of value or is a sure thing. I just believe the outside chance of hitting on him is greater than a guy like Blaze Jordan or the Sogard/Mullins trade I suggested yesterday.

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So why not trade for Arenado and, separately or not, trade Yoshida for as much salary as you can dump?  Assuming Devers accepts the transition, all of a sudden you have a roster that makes some sense.

That's fine. It's probably more reasonable to assume that a different team would want to take on a little salary while the Cards are trying to offload as much as possible. If they eat 50% of his salary, does Masa have a landing spot? 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If we're giving older Bleis ANOTHER year to prove it, why not Zanetello? I'm not saying he has a ton of value or is a sure thing. I just believe the outside chance of hitting on him is greater than a guy like Blaze Jordan or the Sogard/Mullins trade I suggested yesterday.

I do think he deserves another chance, I just happen to think that doesn't exclude him from being traded. 

FWIW I'm not that high on Bleis anymore either. 

I'm only mentioning Blaze Jordan/Nazan Zanetello because it was reported that "alleged sources" have said those are the names being discussed in a trade with the Red Sox (from Cardinals media).  I have no ideal how reliable cardinalslive on X is.  

I just took those names and plopped it into BTV, it doesn't mean I don't want Nazzan to recover or think it's possible (although I'm admittedly pessimistic), but I feel pretty strong that I don't think a kid like him should hold up a trade at this point. 

Not sure why the 3 mo older Bleis hasn't falled as much.  But he did lose time because of injury and at only 3 months older posted an OPS more than 200 points higher and more than 1/2'd Nazzans K rate.  So as bad as Bleis season looked, it didn't look as bad as Nazzans.  Bleis is hitting the ball more, just not impacting it.  As he fills out that could change, it will never change if all you do is K. 

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's fine. It's probably more reasonable to assume that a different team would want to take on a little salary while the Cards are trying to offload as much as possible. If they eat 50% of his salary, does Masa have a landing spot? 

I think it would be interesting to see how much salary a team would be willing to take on vs. how high a prospect a team would want to take on ALL his salary. 

Because depending on the number or player, my mind could change on dumping all his salary, or just paying to get him out off the roster. 

If the Sox don't make any other moves this offseason, they are better off just plugging him at DH. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I do think he deserves another chance, I just happen to think that doesn't exclude him from being traded. 

FWIW I'm not that high on Bleis anymore either. 

I'm only mentioning Blaze Jordan/Nazan Zanetello because it was reported that "alleged sources" have said those are the names being discussed in a trade with the Red Sox (from Cardinals media).  I have no ideal how reliable cardinalslive on X is.  

I just took those names and plopped it into BTV, it doesn't mean I don't want Nazzan to recover or think it's possible (although I'm admittedly pessimistic), but I feel pretty strong that I don't think a kid like him should hold up a trade at this point. 

Not sure why the 3 mo older Bleis hasn't falled as much.  But he did lose time because of injury and at only 3 months older posted an OPS more than 200 points higher and more than 1/2'd Nazzans K rate.  So as bad as Bleis season looked, it didn't look as bad as Nazzans.  Bleis is hitting the ball more, just not impacting it.  As he fills out that could change, it will never change if all you do is K. 

To me, I think the Cards should give up Arenado for lesser prospects. If the Sox don't value Zanetello, it was a different REGIME that drafted him, fine. They know more about him than I do. 

I'm not really a believer in Zanetello or Bleis. I'm definitely not a believer in Jordan. I think there's a good chance that Bleis should be out of the top 20 by the end of the year. He may hang on like Allan Castro, but I believe guys actually have to produce on the field at some point.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think it would be interesting to see how much salary a team would be willing to take on vs. how high a prospect a team would want to take on ALL his salary. 

Because depending on the number or player, my mind could change on dumping all his salary, or just paying to get him out off the roster. 

If the Sox don't make any other moves this offseason, they are better off just plugging him at DH. 

Buying a prospect with Yoshida's salary? I'm just not sure what kind of prospect would come back. Maybe they could get a guy that is ready to pop like Sandlin? IDK. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Buying a prospect with Yoshida's salary? I'm just not sure what kind of prospect would come back. Maybe they could get a guy that is ready to pop like Sandlin? IDK. 

I meant, the Sox would sell Yoshidas salary with a prospect. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I meant, the Sox would sell Yoshidas salary with a prospect. 

Getting salary relief by getting rid of a prospect? I just don't think a team like the Red Sox should be doing nonsense like that. That's a worse option than just DFA'ing him. 

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Getting salary relief by getting rid of a prospect? I just don't think a team like the Red Sox should be doing nonsense like that. That's a worse option than just DFA'ing him. 

I agree, but for a team on a budget $18 million dollars is $18 million dollars. 

Also, let me reiterate, I'd like to see what players teams would be asking for.  If a team wants Marcelo Mayer I'm hanging up the phone.  I'd also like to weight that vs. much salary relief can we get before having to give up anything at all really. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Sox would effectively have Arenado on the books for 3 years 19 million per for giving up their 27th and 33rd ranked prospects. 

I don't completely hate it, what I don't like is the $19 million on the books for the cost conscious Sox.  But if Arenado was healthy and could even just be a 3 WAR player, play good D and push Devers to DH it would be worth it. 

I might sign Arenado to $10M x 3, tops. I'm not giving anything for him at $19M x 3. I'd expect them to add a couple prospects or Helsley.

[moonslav59]

I'd give Zanetello, Jordan and Yoshida to someone willing to take on a big chunk of Yoshida;s contract. I'd expect nothing in return.

If we could/would do this, we could afford to take on more of Arenado's deal, AND the roster bottleneck at 1B/DH would be eased by Yoshida's departure. The budget might come out close to even.

[moonslav59]

We gave up Lugo, Kavadas & others for 2 months of  Luis Garcia.

Paulino and Coffey for 2 months of Danny Jansen. Portes for Sims.

I liked those guys more than Zanetello & Jordan.