Article: Was Jarren Duran Baseball's Best Leadoff Hitter in 2024?

[Drew Midle]

If you ask any MLB fan, most would agree that Jarren Duran has had an extremely strong 2024 season. He became a fan favorite among Red Sox fans and has put himself into MLB superstar conversations.

This season, Jarren Duran appeared in his first MLB All-Star Game and won the Ted Williams Most Valuable Player Award in that game. 

He also became the first player in MLB history to record ten triples, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and 40 doubles in a single season. 

With the season winding down, Duran will most likely finish the season 8th in oWAR (offensive Wins Above Replacement) with an impressive 6.1. Duran also currently leads Major League Baseball in plate appearances, proving how often the Red Sox star can be in the position to make an impact. 

Duran had an OPS+ (on-base plus slugging percentage, normalized with 100 as average across the entire league) of 129, which was very solid league-wide and was the best of his career so far.

Is it safe to say Duran has been the best leadoff hitter in baseball? 

Two other star pure leadoff hitters in MLB that are in that top leadoff hitter conversation are Luis Arráez of the San Diego Padres and Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies.

If it weren’t for injury, Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers would top this list after another outstanding season, but availability matters.

While Duran trails Luis Arráez in hits and batting average, he has significantly more home runs, RBIs, and runs. Like Betts, Arráez also missed many games, which doesn’t help his case.

Duran trails Kyle Schwarber in home runs, RBIs, and runs. However, Duran has Schwarber beat in batting average and hits.

While these stats show that Duran is clearly in the conversation for one of the top pure leadoff hitters in MLB, there is one area of his game that sets him apart. 

Before I get into that, let’s focus on the leadoff hitter’s job in the batting order. Going back to Little League, the leadoff hitter was traditionally a fast player who could get on base, get in scoring position, and score off an RBI from one of the hitters in the 2-4 position of the order.

A pure leadoff hitter is someone who can start the game by getting into scoring position, and that's what makes them so valuable and dangerous. 

We’ve all seen Duran turn outfield singles into doubles throughout the season. He currently leads MLB in doubles and is tied for the lead in triples. The last time a Red Sox player (Jim Rice) hit 14 or more triples in a season was 1978. This is important because he can get into scoring position more than any leadoff hitter in baseball. With his speed, he only needs an outfield single for a potential run.

Duran is also 8th in baseball in stolen bases with 34, proving how effective he can advance bases on his own accord. He also has an XBR (FanGraphs Baserunning Above Average) of a whopping 4.9.

While Duran, Arráez, and Schwarber might all be great hitters, Duran has the exclusivity of being dangerous on the bases. Duran’s best quality is once the ball is in play which is an elite talent to have. This is exactly what you want from your leadoff hitter. 

Hopefully, in the 2025 season, Duran can continue his ascent as an MLB superstar and help the Red Sox get back into the playoffs.

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[TrotNixon]

Interesting perspective. Duran has certainly been a revelation this year. He’s the player I’m most excited about heading into ‘25. Best Sox lead off hitter since…???

[vegasbob]

  The more he is on base the better the Sox score.   If he has something to work on it would be his 24% K rate and  duplicating 2024 will be no easy feat for him

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, TrotNixon said:

Interesting perspective. Duran has certainly been a revelation this year. He’s the player I’m most excited about heading into ‘25. Best Sox lead off hitter since…???

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, TrotNixon said:

Interesting perspective. Duran has certainly been a revelation this year. He’s the player I’m most excited about heading into ‘25. Best Sox lead off hitter since…???

Best since Betts of course. The better comp for Duran is Ellsbury. Ellsbury peaked at age 27. This was Duran's age 27 season. Another comp could potentially be Fred Lynn if you look at Duran's SLG, 2B, HR and ignore his SB. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Best since Betts of course. The better comp for Duran is Ellsbury. Ellsbury peaked at age 27. This was Duran's age 27 season. Another comp could potentially be Fred Lynn if you look at Duran's SLG, 2B, HR and ignore his SB. 

Lynn didn't bat leadoff. In those days, it was Burleson or Remy... with their career OBPs of .328 and .327.

Btw, Duran's is also .327, but trending up the past two years: .346, .343.

Ellsbury's career OBP was .342. Mookie in Boston was .374; in LA, he's down to .372. But Ohtani bats first this year, where he's at .386. Schwarber, who didn't always bat leadoff, is .367 in '24, .344 lifetime.

Boggs was pretty good: .415 career, .428 in 11 Red Sox years... yet Rickey at .401 all-time is known as the greatest leadoff man in history.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Lynn didn't bat leadoff. In those days, it was Burleson or Remy... with their career OBPs of .328 and .327.

Btw, Duran's is also .327, but trending up the past two years: .346, .343.

Ellsbury's career OBP was .342. Mookie in Boston was .374; in LA, he's down to .372. But Ohtani bats first this year, where he's at .386. Schwarber, who didn't always bat leadoff, is .367 in '24, .344 lifetime.

Boggs was pretty good: .415 career, .428 in 11 Red Sox years... yet Rickey at .401 all-time is known as the greatest leadoff man in history.

With Lynn, was just comparing the player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Boggs was pretty good: .415 career, .428 in 11 Red Sox years... yet Rickey at .401 all-time is known as the greatest leadoff man in history.

Pretty sure that has something to do with the career 184,000 stolen bases*.

*only slightly exaggerated

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not sure I agree "best leadoff hitter" is an important title because to me it's Duran's WAR of 8.7, 4th best in MLB, that's the key stat because it values the whole player.  Duran's 8.7 is more than double Devers' 3.7, which is the 2d best WAR on the Sox.  That's a huge difference.    

Someone mentioned Mookie as the best Sox leadoff batter, and there too I would say, "you're missing the point.  Mookie is better than a great leadoff player.  He's a great all-around player."  

The one point I will concede is that all of those doubles, triples, stolen bases, etc suggest that leadoff is the right place in the batting order for Duran.   Funny thing, however, is that, largely because of the Sox RISP disease this season, Duran has only scored 109 runs.  The MLB leader with 130 runs scored?  Shohei Ohtani, who also has 53 dingers and 56 stolen bases.  

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm not sure I agree "best leadoff hitter" is an important title because to me it's Duran's WAR of 8.7, 4th best in MLB, that's the key stat because it values the whole player.  Duran's 8.7 is more than double Devers' 3.7, which is the 2d best WAR on the Sox.  That's a huge difference.    

Someone mentioned Mookie as the best Sox leadoff batter, and there too I would say, "you're missing the point.  Mookie is better than a great leadoff player.  He's a great all-around player."  

The one point I will concede is that all of those doubles, triples, stolen bases, etc suggest that leadoff is the right place in the batting order for Duran.   Funny thing, however, is that, largely because of the Sox RISP disease this season, Duran has only scored 109 runs.  The MLB leader with 130 runs scored?  Shohei Ohtani, who also has 53 dingers and 56 stolen bases.  

 

 

 

Ohtani is better than everyone in everything, including signing with a club where he can bat in front of two future Hall of Famers in Betts and Freeman. 

Mookie missed some time with a fracture from a hit by pitch, but here is a season stat unfathomable on his ex-team: 57 Ks, 60 BBs.