If you ask any MLB fan, most would agree that Jarren Duran has had an extremely strong 2024 season. He became a fan favorite among Red Sox fans and has put himself into MLB superstar conversations.
This season, Jarren Duran appeared in his first MLB All-Star Game and won the Ted Williams Most Valuable Player Award in that game.
He also became the first player in MLB history to record ten triples, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and 40 doubles in a single season.
With the season winding down, Duran will most likely finish the season 8th in oWAR (offensive Wins Above Replacement) with an impressive 6.1. Duran also currently leads Major League Baseball in plate appearances, proving how often the Red Sox star can be in the position to make an impact.
Duran had an OPS+ (on-base plus slugging percentage, normalized with 100 as average across the entire league) of 129, which was very solid league-wide and was the best of his career so far.
Is it safe to say Duran has been the best leadoff hitter in baseball?
Two other star pure leadoff hitters in MLB that are in that top leadoff hitter conversation are Luis Arráez of the San Diego Padres and Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies.
If it weren’t for injury, Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers would top this list after another outstanding season, but availability matters.
While Duran trails Luis Arráez in hits and batting average, he has significantly more home runs, RBIs, and runs. Like Betts, Arráez also missed many games, which doesn’t help his case.
Duran trails Kyle Schwarber in home runs, RBIs, and runs. However, Duran has Schwarber beat in batting average and hits.
While these stats show that Duran is clearly in the conversation for one of the top pure leadoff hitters in MLB, there is one area of his game that sets him apart.
Before I get into that, let’s focus on the leadoff hitter’s job in the batting order. Going back to Little League, the leadoff hitter was traditionally a fast player who could get on base, get in scoring position, and score off an RBI from one of the hitters in the 2-4 position of the order.
A pure leadoff hitter is someone who can start the game by getting into scoring position, and that's what makes them so valuable and dangerous.
We’ve all seen Duran turn outfield singles into doubles throughout the season. He currently leads MLB in doubles and is tied for the lead in triples. The last time a Red Sox player (Jim Rice) hit 14 or more triples in a season was 1978. This is important because he can get into scoring position more than any leadoff hitter in baseball. With his speed, he only needs an outfield single for a potential run.
Duran is also 8th in baseball in stolen bases with 34, proving how effective he can advance bases on his own accord. He also has an XBR (FanGraphs Baserunning Above Average) of a whopping 4.9.
While Duran, Arráez, and Schwarber might all be great hitters, Duran has the exclusivity of being dangerous on the bases. Duran’s best quality is once the ball is in play which is an elite talent to have. This is exactly what you want from your leadoff hitter.
Hopefully, in the 2025 season, Duran can continue his ascent as an MLB superstar and help the Red Sox get back into the playoffs.
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