Article: Can Trevor Story and Triston Casas Be Counted On in 2025?

[Alex Mayes]

The duo was expected to be a bright spot for Boston's infield this season, but injuries derailed those hopes for months. Is there reason to believe in them moving forward? 

After dropping a four-game series in New York and a three-game series in Tampa, the Red Sox find themselves on the outside looking in, with fewer and fewer opportunities to qualify for the postseason. Still, this season should be considered a success. The team has hung around the playoff picture for longer than it did in previous years, and it did so with a patchwork starting rotation, a bullpen that punched above its weight for part of the season, and two cornerstone infielders spending the vast majority of on their time on the injured list. Let’s give Craig Breslow, Alex Cora, his staff, and even Chaim Bloom some credit. They took what many expected to be a lost season and turned it into a campaign full of fun games and meaningful September baseball.

Speaking of those cornerstone infielders, it's fair to wonder what the season would have been like had Trevor Story and Triston Casas not gone down early in the year. Story injured his non-throwing shoulder on April 5 in what was described at the time as a season-ending injury. His return to the lineup on September 7 was viewed as a veteran-leader move. A left rib strain put Casas on the shelf from April 21 until August 16. While much has been made of his mental practice swings and weapon-based pain scale, the loss of a powerful left-handed bat was a big one. Rafael Devers became the team's primary power threat, with no protection behind him in the lineup.

Both players have returned with varying degrees of success. They are making the plays you expect them to make at their positions, but their offense still hasn't gotten healthy. Story has been just a hair below average, but Casas is running a 91 wRC+ since his return, a far cry from the 129 he put up last season. I started wondering what the 2025 season could hold for Story and Casas. Both are expected to play huge roles in Boston for the foreseeable future, even if a certain author believes Story makes more sense as a sell-low trade chip. Can their brief returns to the lineup can tell us anything as we look to next season?

Story’s lack of offense is nothing new to the Red Sox faithful. Since his return, he's batting .258 with a 98 wRC+, which makes for roughly league-average production. He’s recently found a slight power surge, though one of the homers got some help from Yankee Stadium's short porch. Still, the eye test shows a hitter who is making more soft contact than hard. He has an 85.1-mph average exit velocity and a 24.5% hard-hit rate this season, and the EV figure is even lower since his return from injury. Both of those numbers are catastrophically low, by far the worst of Story's career. His spray chart reveals very few balls hit deep into the outfield.

For a second straight season, the hope is that a full offseason of workouts will get Story back in All-Star form with the bat. Sure, it’s an incredibly small sample size but the 82.6-mph average exit velocity he's run since his return — the fourth-lowest among all qualified players over that stretch — leaves you with a sense of longing rather than hope. The flip side is his glove still plays. He makes both the routine and flashy plays look easy, and that’s exactly what you want your shortstop to do. It’s no secret that shortstop has been a point of contention among Boston fans since the team signed Story and Xander Bogaerts departed for San Diego a year later. Story’s inability to stay on the field has shined a new light on just how valuable even a league-average shortstop is to a team with postseason aspirations. There has been a noticeable shift when he's been on the dirt, as his attitude and leadership have settled and calmed the infield. You know that if a ball is rocketed to short, Story will field it smoothly and make the play. His teammates don’t have to worry about whether a last-minute hop will squirt past him or that he'll airmail the throw to first. The sample of 19 games is tiny, but according to both DRS and Statcast's Feilding Run Values, he's already saved two runs, an elite pace. You can’t say that about anyone else who has played up the middle in Boston this season. There’s no reason to expect his defense to take a considerable step backward next season. I still maintain he should be traded due to the influx of youth, but you can count on him to be the Opening Day shortstop who hits .250 at best but plays borderline Gold Glove defense.

Pivoting to Triston Casas, our sample size isn’t huge, but it's bigger than Story’s. In the 23 games before his injury, Casas was running a 128 wRC+, and a 30.1% strikeout rate, essentially the same production he put up last year, but with more strikeouts. In the 31 games since his return, his wRC+ has fallen nearly 30 points to 91, and his strikeout rate has climbed to a precipitous 36.7%, fifth-highest among all qualified players over that period. Alex Cora has even taken to sitting Casas against lefty starters for the last two weeks, in favor of Connor Wong. Before the injury, Casas ran a 149 wRC+ against lefties and a 128 wRC+ against righties. Since his return, those numbers are 44 and 105. He deserves some time to figure things out, and he was probably rushed back a bit to help with the playoff hunt, but it’s becoming clearer that Casas isn’t going to return to form on offense this season. He’s hit three home runs since returning from injury, but his spray chart isn't pretty.

On the other hand, Casas has looked like he’s taken a step forward on defense. He looks more comfortable, and he's picking balls you wouldn't have expected him to pick at the start of the season, though he has committed two errors since his return. Casas has always been a passable defender, but he looks like he’s coming into his own at first. There’s no reason to expect that Casas won't return to form on offense next year. He should step into the All-Star potential he’s shown when completely healthy.

The question of what to expect from Story and Casas is one of many that faces the Red Sox this offseason. Will they find a way to acquire a true ace? What does the bullpen look like after the departures of Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen? How do they resolve the outfield logjam? We won't get any answers until November at the earliest. However, Story and Casas will be looked at as leaders of the infield every time they are in the lineup. Let’s just hope they're out there for longer next season. Maybe that’s the push this team needs to break back into the playoff scene. 

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[Bellhorn04]

Oh no, the dreaded words, "count on". 😊 (Those words were used a lot arguments about why it made sense for the Red Sox to trade Sale - i.e. they did it because they couldn't count on him for 2024.)

Nice article.  My take is that we don't have much choice but to count on Story and Casas for 2025.  

I'm actually more worried about Casas's rib area injury and the long-term effects on his baseball swing.

I think we need Story badly now as this team is constituted, for his defense, his RH bat, his smarts and his veteran presence.   

It's good to see that Casas's defense has improved, that makes him more valuable too.

All I can really do is go full Pollyanna and hope for healthy productive seasons next year 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Oh no, the dreaded words, "count on". 😊

"Next year, we won't be hit by the injury bug so badly!"

*next year's injury bug*

[Maddie Landis]

Story brings much-needed stability at shortstop. We witnessed our infield defense fall apart after his shoulder injury in early April. The poor defense at shortstop has exacerbated our pitching issues. Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Josh Winckowski’s post over 50% GB%. 

We need solid defense behind our pitchers that throw for high GB%. Despite only playing in 148 games over the past two seasons, Story’s produced 3.5 rWAR and 2.4 dWAR. If Story can stay healthy for the entire season and hit around .250 in 2025, fans will be happy with his performance. 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

1 hour ago, Maddie Landis said:

Story brings much-needed stability at shortstop. We witnessed our infield defense fall apart after his shoulder injury in early April. The poor defense at shortstop has exacerbated our pitching issues. Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Josh Winckowski’s post over 50% GB%. 

We need solid defense behind our pitchers that throw for high GB%. Despite only playing in 148 games over the past two seasons, Story’s produced 3.5 rWAR and 2.4 dWAR. If Story can stay healthy for the entire season and hit around .250 in 2025, fans will be happy with his performance. 

I can't say I'd be happy with a former All Star hitting .250 but I get your point.  

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Maddie Landis said:

Story brings much-needed stability at shortstop. We witnessed our infield defense fall apart after his shoulder injury in early April. The poor defense at shortstop has exacerbated our pitching issues. Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Josh Winckowski’s post over 50% GB%. 

We need solid defense behind our pitchers that throw for high GB%. Despite only playing in 148 games over the past two seasons, Story’s produced 3.5 rWAR and 2.4 dWAR. If Story can stay healthy for the entire season and hit around .250 in 2025, fans will be happy with his performance. 

Considering that in each of the  last two seasons, the Sox have replaced his glove at shortstop by moving a GG caliber defender in CF, the effect his absence has had on the defense is more than just about him…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, Maddie Landis said:

Story brings much-needed stability at shortstop. We witnessed our infield defense fall apart after his shoulder injury in early April. The poor defense at shortstop has exacerbated our pitching issues. Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Josh Winckowski’s post over 50% GB%. 

We need solid defense behind our pitchers that throw for high GB%. 

This is a great point, Maddie, and one I was wary of with a new CBO and pitching coach (both former relievers who thrived throwing breaking balls); the new emphasis on a staff spinning sweepers always looked risky backed by the worst infield in baseball.

I actually expected Brez to go hard after big arms that throw hard... because blowing it by guys -- pitching to no contact -- is definitely one way to shore up that D. 

But after agonizing over the '24 Red Sox batters' nightly whiff fest, imagine them having to face the dirt cheap, scrapheap, knee-deep in sweep Boston pitching...

[moonslav59]

The scary thing is we basically HAVE TO count on both to play 145+ games.

Our back-up plans are questionable, at best.

1B: Wong or Romy? LOL (who catches?) Devers to 1B and Campbell/Meidroth at 3B (or Story/Mayer at 3B?)

SS: No way can we use Dham at SS, again. Make Rafaela the FT SS and let him learn on the fly? Mayer, a guy who seems to be injured as much as Story? Campbell or Meidroth?

It's not pretty, if either goes down, again.

[Maxbialystock]

I think Casas and Story for a whole season will make a difference and said so on another thread.