Article: The Red Sox Have Three Rookie Of The Year Candidates; Should We Give Chaim Bloom More Credit?

[Adam Morgan]

Can someone win the Executive of the Year award when they are no longer with that team? Chaim Bloom wants to know. While he was much maligned for strange trade deadline moves during his tenure with the Sox, Bloom did manage to net the Red Sox three players who could receive Rookie of the Year votes this year.

Before we get into the players and the case for each, it is important to put this into context. The last time an AL team had three players get Rookie of the Year votes in the same season was in 2021. The Rays trio of Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and Shane McClanahan were prophesied to be the next big things in baseball and would lead the team to compete in the tough AL East for years. Injuries and other issues have derailed that plan this season, but at the time, Erik Neander (2019 MLB Executive of the Year) was lauded for his team-building ability.

Fast forward to 2024, newly appointed Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow finds himself in a similar position. Boston currently has three players in the top ten in rookie position player WAR: Wilyer Abreu with 3.0 WAR, David Hamilton with 1.6 WAR, and Ceddanne Rafaela with 1.1 WAR. Surprisingly, the Sox have two pitchers in the top ten in rookie pitcher WAR: Justin Slaten with 1.3 WAR and Cooper Criswell with 1.2 WAR. Most oddsmakers predict Abreu will receive serious consideration for Rookie of the Year but also think that Hamilton and Rafaela will receive some down-ballot votes. Let’s take a look at their cases.

---

Wilyer Abreu
The 25-year-old from Maracaibo in Venezuela was acquired by the Red Sox from the Houston Astros in the Christian Vázquez trade. Abreu first debuted for the Sox in 2023, accumulating 0.6 WAR in 28 games. With that pace, he would accumulate ~3.5 WAR over 162 games. Because of injuries, rest days, or suspensions (I’m looking at you, Jarren), rarely does someone ever play a full 162 games these days. That makes Abreu’s 3.0 WAR in only 114 games so impressive.

A deeper look at the AL rookie charts shows that Abreu is the top-performing rookie on offense, with an 11.4 Offensive Runs Above Average (per FanGraphs). The Yankees’ Austin Wells leads all AL rookies with an overall WAR of 3.7, but the majority comes from excellent catching defense; his Offensive Runs Above Average is only 6.2.

Defensively, Abreu is no slouch. He ranks fourth in AL rookie Defensive Runs Above Average (again, per FanGraphs) with 5.2. He is behind Wells, presumptive AL Rookie of the Year favorite Colton Cowser, and Cleveland’s defense-first shortstop, Brayan Rocchio.

Looking under the hood just makes Abreu more impressive. Of his main AL rookie of the year rivals, Abreu has the highest hard-hit percentage with 37.1%. The only AL rookies above him are Baltimore’s Jackson Holliday and New York’s Ben Rice. Still, both have significantly lower Batting Average, Balls in Play (BABIP), meaning that hard contact isn’t translating into hits for them. Abreu’s .342 BABIP is second to only Joey Loperfido among AL rookies.

If the Red Sox make the playoffs, I could see Abreu making a serious push for Rookie of the Year. Where the Red Sox stand now, on the outside looking in, it feels more likely that the Yankees’ or the Orioles’ top rookie has a better shot at taking home the award. Sadly, I don’t think Abreu will eclipse Tristan Casas’ 2023 feat of coming in third for AL Rookie of the Year.

---

David Hamilton
When the Red Sox traded Hunter Renfroe to the Milwaukee Brewers to get Jackie Bradley Jr. back, it was a bit of a head-scratcher. Renfroe had put up his best offensive season playing in Fenway, and to sell high on him only to get back a light-hitting, defensive maestro was perplexing. However, in the deal's fine print were two players: Alex Binelas, who put up a serviceable .784 OPS in Double-A Portland this season, and David Hamilton.

Much like in the Hunter Renfroe deal, Hamilton seemed like he would be a footnote in the 2024 Red Sox season. Hitting a paltry .121 in 15 games with Boston in 2023, his break-out was unexpected, to say the least. He didn’t start the season in the majors, and he is currently on the injured list for a thumb sprain. Still, he has racked up 1.6 WAR, having played only 98 games.

If you have seen Hamilton play, you know his main weapon is speed. He leads all rookies (not just AL) in steals with 33. The next closest to him is Washington’s Jacob Young, who has played 34 more games than Hamilton. His baseruns above average is 6.1, more than double the next closest rookie, Wyatt Langford of the Rangers. To put that number in perspective, only two players in the American League have a better mark: Jarren Duran with 7.8 and the Royals’ Maikel Garcia with 7.6.

Besides his speed, the rest of his offensive weapons are good but not incredible. He is ninth in OPS among AL rookies at .697. He is outperforming his expected batting average and slugging percentage, which is to be expected with his kind of speed. Even so, he ranks seventh and eighth in those categories among AL rookies, respectively.

If Hamilton played a full season this year, there is a real chance he could have led the American League in stolen bases. He is only six shy of José Caballero’s mark of 39 steals. If he led the league in steals, maybe he would get a few first-place Rookie of the Year votes, but as it stands, he probably gets some down-ballot nods in recognition of a solid season.

---

Ceddanne Rafaela
Preseason odds probably would have said Rafaela was the Red Sox rookie most likely to win Rookie of the Year. However, Trevor Story's injury and streakiness have caused the 23-year-old from Curacao to have the most complicated candidacy of any Boston rookie.

Coming up, Rafaela’s low walk and high strikeout rate made him look like a volatile hitter at the plate, but his glove in center field was considered elite. With the Red Sox's defensive woes in 2023 and Rafaela showing a little bit of pop in his bat, he made the opening-day lineup for Alex Cora. While he was expected to have some positional flexibility, no one really expected his defensive splits this season.

Rafaela has played more games at shortstop than centerfield this season, although it is close. He has 82 games at short and 77 in center; those should balance out with Trevor Story back for the end of the season. He has also played a handful of games at second and third. Showing versatility is a strength in the modern game and something that the Red Sox have always valued (see Brock Holt), but the moving around has sapped what should have been the best part of Rafaela’s game.

FanGraphs has Rafaela’s Defensive Runs Above Average at 1.2. That puts him tenth among qualified rookies, behind Red Sox’s other Rookie of the Year candidates. While that may not seem too bad, it is because Rafaela ranks 21st in Offensive Runs Above Average. With a 2.9% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate, he would need more than 15 home runs to make that look “good.”

Looking under the hood puts his numbers into a bit more context. He leads Red Sox rookies in FanGraphs’ Clutch statistic; he is the only one of the trio who performs better in high-leverage situations. You saw that late in August when Rafaela hit a go-ahead two-run blast in the 10th inning against the Tigers, essentially a replay of his performance against the Yankees on July 5th. These big moments have helped endear him to the fanbase and give him signature moments for voters to look back on.

Those signature moments, combined with the understanding that Rafaela is an elite center fielder who has moved around selflessly to help the Red Sox cope with injuries, should give him some goodwill with voters. It is probably not enough goodwill to help him finish higher than Abreu in the Rookie of the Year voting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes higher than Hamilton.

---

The Rest of the Field
Despite Abreu’s impressive numbers, I do not expect him to finish higher than third. The Yankees’ Wells and Baltimore’s Cowser are fighting for AL rookie WAR supremacy. Add in the fact that the Yankees’ Luis Gil leads AL pitching rookie WAR and All-Star Game closer Mason Miller of the Athletics is just 0.2 WAR behind him, which means that Abreu could plausibly finish anywhere between third and fifth place.

It will be interesting to see how Wells and Cowser end their season and who will take home the trophy in the final few weeks. It will be equally interesting to see if Abreu can solidify third place for himself and if Rafaela can add to his case to receive votes. The true bummer is that David Hamilton is now on the injured list with a fractured finger. While the requisite 10-day stay on the IL is over, he does not appear close to returning yet. He could use a few more steals to solidify his case, so it will be interesting to watch if he can get back on the field before the end of the season. 

View full article

[Bellhorn04]

Yes and no.  He should get credit for Abreu and Hamilton, but Rafaela was signed in 2017 when Dombrowski was CBO.

 

[Hugh2]

I am of the assumption that any player that isn't a first round draft pick, or the top $$$ signing in IFA is purely or at least almost purely the work of the scouting department. A CBO often doesn't know most of these guys. 

Take Wilyer Abreu for example, Sox had a deal with him in 2016 in the international free agency system but they lost the ability to sign anyone that year due to penalties. 

Yes, Bloom traded for him, but the Sox scouting and developmental department obviouslly really liked him.  It seems logical that they were the ones telling Bloom  "this is the guy, this is the guy we think is going to be good" years after the fact. 

Bloom, Dave D, Theo, Breslow, whoever.....they all do the same thing. They're making decisions largely based off the scouting of others.  What seperates them is their ability to swing a trade, negotiate, bring in the right personel to scout and develop guys etc etc etc. 

[mvp 78]

Rafaela got a $10,000 signing bonus. 

In 2019, he was hitting 754 in the GCL. There's a 95%+ chance DD had no idea who Rafaela was by the time he was fired. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I am of the assumption that any player that isn't a first round draft pick, or the top $$$ signing in IFA is purely or at least almost purely the work of the scouting department. A CBO often doesn't know most of these guys. 

Take Wilyer Abreu for example, Sox had a deal with him in 2016 in the international free agency system but they lost the ability to sign anyone that year due to penalties. 

Yes, Bloom traded for him, but the Sox scouting and developmental department obviouslly really liked him.  It seems logical that they were the ones telling Bloom  "this is the guy, this is the guy we think is going to be good" years after the fact. 

Bloom, Dave D, Theo, Breslow, whoever.....they all do the same thing. They're making decisions largely based off the scouting of others.  What seperates them is their ability to swing a trade, negotiate, bring in the right personel to scout and develop guys etc etc etc. 

Yes -- and listen to your scouts about who NOT to trade...

... like the one who had to pull off the road crying, when he heard on the radio the 1990 Red Sox acquired a veteran middle reliever -- for Jeff Bagwell.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yes -- and listen to your scouts about who NOT to trade...

... like the one who had to pull off the road crying, when he heard on the radio the 1990 Red Sox acquired a veteran middle reliever -- for Jeff Bagwell.

Nobody was asking for Rafaela in a trade in 2019, but I agree with the overall point.