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Diamondbacks (Kelly) vs Red Sox (Houck): 8/25/24, 1:35pm

moonslav59
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moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

It's getting down to the point where we need not just a winning stretch, but a winning streak. We've cornered ourselves into this with poor pitching, horrific pen work and bad defense. Now, even the bats are going quiet.

 

This game seems like it might be a very important one. We need to start winning more at home. We can't lose any more ground to those ahead of us. We will begin to play a schedule that is a bit more favorable than our closest teams have to play. To me, it seems like it is "now or never."

 

The team needs to take one game at a time, but I'm looking at the next 15 games as our chance to get back in this thing:

1 v AZ

5 v TOR (in 4 days)

3 @ DET

3 @ NYM

3 v CWS

 

Is even 10-5 enough?

 

Let's start with 1-0!

Maxbialystock MVP

Maxbialystock

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Excellent OP by moonslav, whose analysis of the Sox current situation is spot on.

 

The Diamondbacks, as reported in the Friday night game thread, came in hot as hot can be. They have terrific hitting and lead MLB by a bunch in runs scored--35 more than the #2 Yankees.

 

And to my eyes their pitching in both games looked pretty good even though their team ERA is ranked a really lousy 25th. Good pitching usually trumps good hitting and the Diamondbacks just stomped the Sox into the ground in both games. I honestly don't think being at Fenway had anything to do with those two decisive wins.

 

moonslav is dead right that the Sox need to make a stand--now. And, as optimistic as I've tried to be this season, largely because I think these players deserve our support, it's overwhelmingly apparent the bullpen is the Sox achilles heel. To me the signature game was actually a win, 12-10 in Baltimore. What could have been more revealing of how weak the bullpen is?

 

Today is going to one more good test because Houck is our best starter and the Diamondbacks' Kelly doesn't look like much. If the Diamondbacks win, I think the Sox season ends today.

5GoldGlovesOF,75 Greenville Drive

5GoldGlovesOF,75

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Today is going to one more good test because Houck is our best starter and the Diamondbacks' Kelly doesn't look like much. If the Diamondbacks win, I think the Sox season ends today.

 

Maybe, but I like the Globe calling them the Zombie Red Sox, because they keep coming back from the dead.

 

I didn't read the article, but I picture the mob in Night of the Living Dead, arms flailing... at double play balls on D, lobbing meatballs from the mound, and swinging and missing in the batter's box with baserunners on third.

 

And yet -- they. keep. coming...

 

Kansas City and Minnesota are only two games out of first place in their division. Starting tomorrow, the Royals play 7 of their next 10 vs Cleveland, then three vs. the Twins... who play three vs Atlanta, then Toronto, Tampa, KC. The Guardians still have to go to LA to face the Dodgers for three. So nobody has a lock on a playoff spot in the AL Central.

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
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Maybe, but I like the Globe calling them the Zombie Red Sox, because they keep coming back from the dead.

 

I didn't read the article, but I picture the mob in Night of the Living Dead, arms flailing... at double play balls on D, lobbing meatballs from the mound, and swinging and missing in the batter's box with baserunners on third.

 

And yet -- they. keep. coming...

 

Kansas City and Minnesota are only two games out of first place in their division. Starting tomorrow, the Royals play 7 of their next 10 vs Cleveland, then three vs. the Twins... who play three vs Atlanta, then Toronto, Tampa, KC. The Guardians still have to go to LA to face the Dodgers for three. So nobody has a lock on a playoff spot in the AL Central.

 

The most optimistic aspect of our chances to make the playoffs is what you just said, and the fact that all of the teams ahead of us have some glaring weaknesses and have had some pretty long stretches of struggle, this year. Some could easily have another one of two tough stretches, especially when you see their remaining schedules.

 

Here are a few stat-based observations about our nearest opponents:

 

KCR: While we can easily construct multiple line-up with no batters below .700, KC has 3 in their top 9 players under .675. 7 out of their 13 players with 160+ PAs are under .675. Their pen has a 4.40 ERA, 1.401 WHIP and .744 OPSA- not good.

 

MIN has a couple SP'er on the IL, and their depth is lacking. Their line-up is nearly as "balanced" as ours, with just one guy out of their top 9 under .700 (Margot .634,) but they also have Vaz at .615, and their depth has very low numbers, except Royce Lewis (.906.) They have a better pen than KCR, but a worse rotation (4.14 ERA & .696 OPSA.)

 

BAL looks pretty damn solid, but they do have Cedric Mullins at .684and much of thier depth is batting lower than .700. (6 guys over .750 comes close to our 7 batters above .750.) 3 of their top 6 SP'ers have an ERA over 4.30 (2 are over 4.80.) I do think Kimbrel is much scarier than Jansen as a closer.

 

NYY may be one of the most unbalanced offenses to ever lead the league in OPS. They are super-dependent on just 2 guys: Soto 1.027 and Judge 1.189. Both are top 3 on the team in PAs, but check this out: here are the next 8 listed by most PAs:

.687 Volpe

.648 Verdugo

.665 Torres

.785 Stanton (always battling an injury)

.754 Wells

.667 Cabrera

.630 Rizzo (60 day IL)

.512 LeMahieu

(subs: Grisham .659 & Rice .636)

Chisholm should be counted and has done very well w NYY (1.025 in 68 PAs.)

 

All these teams have weak areas, like we do.

 

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Just like that, Devers has more RBI per PA than his career norm. (previously, he was ahead of his career RBI per AB.)

 

Can we now stop with the low RBI talk?

Edited by moonslav59
5GoldGlovesOF,75 Greenville Drive

5GoldGlovesOF,75

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
OB and Youk just want you to know, a thousand times, "Arizona is the best team in the NL. Arizona is the hottest team in baseball. Arizona is so good at everything. Arizona is the only reason the Red Sox can't win this weekend. Arizona has the biggest snails that only come out at night."
moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

Tough inning for Houck, who is now at 76 pitches.

 

Our rotation has really had a hard time in the 5th and 6th inning (4th for some,) recently.

 

Before today...

 

224 runs allowed in innings 4-6

185 innings 7-9 (24 less IP, due to some games with no 9th IP.)

173 innings 1-3

 

88 7th

79 6th

73 4th

72 5th (75, after today)

Maxbialystock MVP

Maxbialystock

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Interesting. It's fine to discuss Barry Bonds and not mention PED, but it isn't fine to discuss Pete Rose and not mention gambling.

 

I unfailingly mention Barry's PED's and Pete's gambling, which he did while managing a MLB team.

 

However, I believe I'm correct in saying that on MLB.com you can see advertisements for betting on MLB games. It's still forbidden for players, managers, coaches, etc, so to me it's just wrong for MLB to be pushing gambling on games.

Maxbialystock MVP

Maxbialystock

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Tough inning for Houck, who is now at 76 pitches.

 

Our rotation has really had a hard time in the 5th and 6th inning (4th for some,) recently.

 

Before today...

 

224 runs allowed in innings 4-6

185 innings 7-9 (24 less IP, due to some games with no 9th IP.)

173 innings 1-3

 

88 7th

79 6th

73 4th

72 5th (75, after today)

 

Prophetic. Simple fact is, Houck stinks today.

 

I stand by my statement that a loss today pretty much ends this season for the Sox. And there's nothing particularly insightful about that. The bullpen stinks, period.

SPLENDIDSPLINTER MVP

SPLENDIDSPLINTER

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I unfailingly mention Barry's PED's and Pete's gambling, which he did while managing a MLB team.

However, I believe I'm correct in saying that on MLB.com you can see advertisements for betting on MLB games. It's still forbidden for players, managers, coaches, etc, so to me it's just wrong for MLB to be pushing gambling on games.

 

I was referring to OB and Youk.

Maxbialystock MVP

Maxbialystock

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The most optimistic aspect of our chances to make the playoffs is what you just said, and the fact that all of the teams ahead of us have some glaring weaknesses and have had some pretty long stretches of struggle, this year. Some could easily have another one of two tough stretches, especially when you see their remaining schedules.

 

Here are a few stat-based observations about our nearest opponents:

 

KCR: While we can easily construct multiple line-up with no batters below .700, KC has 3 in their top 9 players under .675. 7 out of their 13 players with 160+ PAs are under .675. Their pen has a 4.40 ERA, 1.401 WHIP and .744 OPSA- not good.

 

MIN has a couple SP'er on the IL, and their depth is lacking. Their line-up is nearly as "balanced" as ours, with just one guy out of their top 9 under .700 (Margot .634,) but they also have Vaz at .615, and their depth has very low numbers, except Royce Lewis (.906.) They have a better pen than KCR, but a worse rotation (4.14 ERA & .696 OPSA.)

 

BAL looks pretty damn solid, but they do have Cedric Mullins at .684and much of thier depth is batting lower than .700. (6 guys over .750 comes close to our 7 batters above .750.) 3 of their top 6 SP'ers have an ERA over 4.30 (2 are over 4.80.) I do think Kimbrel is much scarier than Jansen as a closer.

 

NYY may be one of the most unbalanced offenses to ever lead the league in OPS. They are super-dependent on just 2 guys: Soto 1.027 and Judge 1.189. Both are top 3 on the team in PAs, but check this out: here are the next 8 listed by most PAs:

.687 Volpe

.648 Verdugo

.665 Torres

.785 Stanton (always battling an injury)

.754 Wells

.667 Cabrera

.630 Rizzo (60 day IL)

.512 LeMahieu

(subs: Grisham .659 & Rice .636)

Chisholm should be counted and has done very well w NYY (1.025 in 68 PAs.)

 

All these teams have weak areas, like we do.

 

 

Nobody has a bullpen remotely as bad ours. The signature game of this season is having to score 12 runs to squeak in a 12-10 win over the Orioles.

 

There is almost no lead the bullpen can't/won't give away.

SPLENDIDSPLINTER MVP

SPLENDIDSPLINTER

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Both are idiots with nary an insight between them.

 

I get a lot of away games on my MLB package. Believe me there's many worse booths out there.

Fortunately, Youk is not a permanent fixture in the NESN booth.

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted
Nobody has a bullpen remotely as bad ours. The signature game of this season is having to score 12 runs to squeak in a 12-10 win over the Orioles.

 

There is almost no lead the bullpen can't/won't give away.

 

I don't disagree, but pen arms are often up and down.

 

I'm not projecting an "up" from ours, but it is possible.

 

It might be too late, even if it somehow happens.

Maxbialystock MVP

Maxbialystock

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I get a lot of away games on my MLB package. Believe me there's many worse booths out there.

Fortunately, Youk is not a permanent fixture in the NESN booth.

 

I don't listen any more, so I really shouldn't be commenting.

Brock Beauchamp Salem RidgeYaks

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
I get a lot of away games on my MLB package. Believe me there's many worse booths out there.

Fortunately, Youk is not a permanent fixture in the NESN booth.

 

I agree, the Sox booth is not bad. Don't think it's great, either, but it's not bad.

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