A brutal stretch for the AL wild card teams

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was looking over this data this morning and it's interesting. It's almost impossible that the Yankees or Orioles can be ousted from a postseason spot so we'll focus on the three central teams instead; Cleveland has the best shot at the ALC division crown but it's far from certain (Twins currently 3GB).

 

Guardians: .509 strength of schedule remaining with some critical matchup. 3 vs NYY, 4 vs MIN, 7 (!) vs KC. Also 2 vs MIL.

 

Twins: .507 strength of schedule remaining. 3 vs BAL, 4 vs CLE, 3 vs KC, 3 vs red-hot Padres, 3 vs Red Sox.

 

Royals: Absolutely obnoxious .527 remaining strength of schedule. Not even gonna break down opponents, the winning percentage speaks for itself. They have far and away the toughest row to hoe.

 

Red Sox: .505 strength of schedule remaining. Kind of amazing none of these teams has a sub-.500 SoS left. Remaining teams include 5 more with BAL, 3 vs NYY, 3 vs MIN, 3 vs AZ, 3 vs NYM, 3 vs HOU.

 

No one has a real advantage down the stretch but it sure looks like KC has the disadvantage.

[Bellhorn04]

KC does have a brutal schedule.

 

From Aug 23 to Sept 4 they play 14 games in 13 days - 7 vs Cle, 4 vs Hou, 3 vs Phil.

 

Their pitching is in much better shape than ours, however.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox are clearly on the outside looking in considering strength of schedule post ASB (hardest in MLB) and the downfall of the pitching (worst pen ERA in July and Aug). Unless the pitching turns around dramatically, it’s going to be insurmountable. Even if the pitching has positive regression, it will be very tough.

 

KC heavily invested in their team this offseason and really turned their club around. Boston didn’t and are going to have maybe a 4 win improvement over last year’s dismal team.

[Old Red]

Outside of pitching playing below 500 ball at Fenway is a big disadvantage for the Red Sox.

[Maxbialystock]

I was looking over this data this morning and it's interesting. It's almost impossible that the Yankees or Orioles can be ousted from a postseason spot so we'll focus on the three central teams instead; Cleveland has the best shot at the ALC division crown but it's far from certain (Twins currently 3GB).

 

Guardians: .509 strength of schedule remaining with some critical matchup. 3 vs NYY, 4 vs MIN, 7 (!) vs KC. Also 2 vs MIL.

 

Twins: .507 strength of schedule remaining. 3 vs BAL, 4 vs CLE, 3 vs KC, 3 vs red-hot Padres, 3 vs Red Sox.

 

Royals: Absolutely obnoxious .527 remaining strength of schedule. Not even gonna break down opponents, the winning percentage speaks for itself. They have far and away the toughest row to hoe.

 

Red Sox: .505 strength of schedule remaining. Kind of amazing none of these teams has a sub-.500 SoS left. Remaining teams include 5 more with BAL, 3 vs NYY, 3 vs MIN, 3 vs AZ, 3 vs NYM, 3 vs HOU.

 

No one has a real advantage down the stretch but it sure looks like KC has the disadvantage.

 

Well said. I was just looking at exactly the same thing this morning with a completely different expectation. I figured the Sox had the toughest row to hoe because of being in the AL East.

 

But you are right. The Sox are definitely in the hunt, and I like the simplicity of your numbers (combined winning percentages of teams to be played).

[Maxbialystock]

Red Sox are clearly on the outside looking in considering strength of schedule post ASB (hardest in MLB) and the downfall of the pitching (worst pen ERA in July and Aug). Unless the pitching turns around dramatically, it’s going to be insurmountable. Even if the pitching has positive regression, it will be very tough.

 

KC heavily invested in their team this offseason and really turned their club around. Boston didn’t and are going to have maybe a 4 win improvement over last year’s dismal team.

 

Ahem. Beauchamps' numbers say differently. The Royals have a tougher schedule from here on out. You can certainly argue they have the better team, but you cannot argue they invested heavily because their payroll, $119M, is $70M less than the Sox $189M and ranked 20th to the Sox 11th.

 

This is an old, old discussion because I have maintained that, while John Henry has definitely backed off of underwriting a payroll among the top 3 in MLB--which he pretty much did from 2003 through 2019--there is some evidence that his biggest problem is the stupidity of his GM's.

 

Everyone agrees Chaim Bloom was a mistake, but right now I have my doubts about Breslow. Thus my comparison of the Royals payroll with the Sox--and the extra $70M Breslow had to improve the Sox. And all we have to do is look at dumping Sale--while paying him $17M while he stars for the Braves--and taking on Giolito, who has yet to earn a dime of the $38M he is getting for 2 seasons.

 

Meanwhile, the strength of the Sox is the lineup which is now ranked 5th in MLB in runs scored and 3d in team OPS. Breslow had very little to do with their success. He did bring in O'Neill (WAR 2.3, 80 games played out of 121 to date), but Duran, Devers, Abreu, Hamilton, Rafaela, Wong, Yoshida, Ref, et al, were because of Bloom, DD, and others. In addition to O'Neill, Breslow brought in Grissom (residue from the Braves/Sale deal), who is currently ensconced at Worcester despite parts of 2 seasons with the Braves.

[mvp 78]

Ahem. Beauchamps' numbers say differently. The Royals have a tougher schedule from here on out. You can certainly argue they have the better team, but you cannot argue they invested heavily because their payroll, $119M, is $70M less than the Sox $189M and ranked 20th to the Sox 11th.

 

This is an old, old discussion because I have maintained that, while John Henry has definitely backed off of underwriting a payroll among the top 3 in MLB--which he pretty much did from 2003 through 2019--there is some evidence that his biggest problem is the stupidity of his GM's.

 

Everyone agrees Chaim Bloom was a mistake, but right now I have my doubts about Breslow. Thus my comparison of the Royals payroll with the Sox--and the extra $70M Breslow had to improve the Sox. And all we have to do is look at dumping Sale--while paying him $17M while he stars for the Braves--and taking on Giolito, who has yet to earn a dime of the $38M he is getting for 2 seasons.

 

Meanwhile, the strength of the Sox is the lineup which is now ranked 5th in MLB in runs scored and 3d in team OPS. Breslow had very little to do with their success. He did bring in O'Neill (WAR 2.3, 80 games played out of 121 to date), but Duran, Devers, Abreu, Hamilton, Rafaela, Wong, Yoshida, Ref, et al, were because of Bloom, DD, and others. In addition to O'Neill, Breslow brought in Grissom (residue from the Braves/Sale deal), who is currently ensconced at Worcester despite parts of 2 seasons with the Braves.

 

From here on out vs from ASB on out are two different timeframes.

[Dipre]

Losing the first game of pretty much every series this team has played this season has also not been very good for their overall record.

[mvp 78]

Losing the first game of pretty much every series this team has played this season has also not been very good for their overall record.

 

It’s an interesting choice, that’s for sure.

[moonslav59]

Losing the first game of pretty much every series this team has played this season has also not been very good for their overall record.

 

I counted 17-25.

[Maxbialystock]

From here on out vs from ASB on out are two different timeframes.

 

Well, then, why not include the first half of the season and/or, for that matter, prior seasons.

 

The OP set the parameters of the discussion--from yesterday forward. And his point, which is completely different from yours, is that the comparative schedules (Sox vs Royals and Twins) favor the Sox. Your version is helpful in explaining why post-ASG has not gone so well.