5/27 @ Orioles

[Maxbialystock]

Well though I am not the only fan to have figured this team out before the first regular season pitch was thrown, as predicted, the hitting is inconsistent, the pitching is well on the way to being exposed and while the actual error count has tapered off to something reasonable, they still make too many fundamental fielding mistakes that cost runs but don't show up in the error count. They are exactly where most of us thought they would be, a 500 team bumping along a game or two over with the potential to be a game or two under.

 

I do wish the NESN broadcast crew would stop trying to pump them as if they are headed to post season glory. They are fun to watch. That should be enough for us this year considering Henry's apparent disinterest.

 

That said, the Sox are not a boring team. They have interesting players that are fun to watch. They are fun to watch independently and as a team. That is more than I had hoped for. I thought they could well be boring while being mediocre in a league full of absolute stiffs for teams. That at least IMO has not happened.

 

Martin's incoherent comment about bunting was a disappointment. Interesting that a guy sporting grey hair is still a child. A lotta' that going around these days.

 

Since you posted this twice, a response is due.

 

Sox payroll is $182M, 11th biggest. But then you have to subtract $17M they are paying Sale to pitch for Atlanta, $7M to Turner, who's also gone, $22.5M for Story who's missed the season, ditto $18M for Giolito, $19M for Yoshida who is out for an indeterminate period and who couldn't hit before then, and $3.5M for Whitlock, who's missing 5/6 of the season. Subtract that $87M, and you have a $95M payroll, of which $29M goes to Devers, and $16M. Both are having good seasons, but that leaves just $50M to pay for 12 of the Sox 13 pitches and 12 of the Sox 13 position players.

 

By my reckoning, they should have a losing record.

[moonslav59]

Since you posted this twice, a response is due.

 

Sox payroll is $182M, 11th biggest. But then you have to subtract $17M they are paying Sale to pitch for Atlanta, $7M to Turner, who's also gone, $22.5M for Story who's missed the season, ditto $18M for Giolito, $19M for Yoshida who is out for an indeterminate period and who couldn't hit before then, and $3.5M for Whitlock, who's missing 5/6 of the season. Subtract that $87M, and you have a $95M payroll, of which $29M goes to Devers, and $16M. Both are having good seasons, but that leaves just $50M to pay for 12 of the Sox 13 pitches and 12 of the Sox 13 position players.

 

By my reckoning, they should have a losing record.

 

Correct, again, Max.

 

The promising part of this season and beyond are all the players with several years of team control that have yet to even reach their arb years, several in their early arb years and a few younger players locked up to multi-year lower cost contracts.

 

Although Devers is not inexpensive, he is just 27 and has 9 years of control left (to age 36.) Story is not young, but not old, either (31 with 3 more years.) Yoshida is 30 and has 3 years left. While these three high paid players, combined look like a drag on the budget, it may not be as bad as past budget woes and dead weight overloads. All three still have promise, with Devers still being our top offensive threat.

 

Now, to the promise:

 

Like them or not, here are out longer term deals with younger players:

$9.2M x 4 more seasons after 2024 + an option for 2030

$6.3M x 7 more seasons after 2024

$4.7M x 2 more seasons after 2024

 

Arbitration players by years (starting in 2025)

4 Crawford & Duran

3 Houck & Dalbec

 

Pre-Arbitration...

Arb starts in 2026:

Casas, Wink & Wong

Arbs that start after 2026:

Abreu, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, Criswell, Grissom, Romy, DHam

Kelly, Valdez, Murphy, Campbell, Mata, Booser, Walter

 

This young foundation may not match those of BAL & ATL, but it is pretty solid. I guess some posters could care less, but some of us do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This young foundation may not match those of BAL & ATL, but it is pretty solid. I guess some posters could care less, but some of us do.

 

For Boston, I wouldn't even call this the foundation. Some young pitchers and outfielders, couple literal cornerstones in the infield -- those men are the rebar and wire mesh that comprise the formwork... before pouring the cement...

 

... but the front office from Bloom to Breslow has been telling us for two winters now that the guys who will be driving and running the cement mixer are in the minors.

 

Sox fans have to be patient -- just a few more years -- don't want to rush and risk totaling the big rig.

[moonslav59]

For Boston, I wouldn't even call this the foundation. Some young pitchers and outfielders, couple literal cornerstones in the infield -- those men are the rebar and wire mesh that comprise the formwork... before pouring the cement...

 

... but the front office from Bloom to Breslow has been telling us for two winters now that the guys who will be driving and running the cement mixer are in the minors.

 

Sox fans have to be patient -- just a few more years -- don't want to rush and risk totaling the big rig.

 

I'm not optimistic about out future due to anything the Sox brass has fed the media over the years. I don't trust a thing they say. I'm not expecting a change from them. I'm not sure they will ever invest in the team, again, and I'm not counting on it, but I'm also not discounting it like some are.

 

Bloom chose to draft mostly HS prospects high in the draft. I don't need top brass to tell me I'll have to wait. It is what it is.

 

That time seems to be very near, now. That gives me hope. If I'm in a small minority, so be it. It would not be the first time.

 

I've admitted our young core or "foundation" is not as good as several other teams, on paper. I get that. I'm not projecting our roster to be the strongest in MLB in 2026, but I do think it will be much better and playoff worthy, perhaps as soon as 2025.

 

A lot will depend on what pieces we acquire to fill the gaps, which seems to always be the case. That is the great unknown and something that kicks my optimism in the gut, but even with nothing added, I think we will be better.

 

C: Wong & Teel > Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas in prime> Pre-prime Casas/Dalbec/Cooper/Smith

2B: Future Grissom & Story/Yorke/Valdez > This year's merry-go-round

SS: Mayer & Story> This year's merry-go-round

3B: Devers= and older Devers & Story or Mayer?

LF: Duran/Ref=Duran/Ref

CF: Rafaela/Duran & Anthony > Rafaela/Duran & others

RF: Abreu & O'Neill ?> Abreu & Anthony

DH: O'Neill & Yoshi ?> Abreu/Devers/Casas/Yoshida

 

I like or rotation future core better than I did in March.

I like our future pen depth better than I did in March.

 

It will probably not be enough for another ing, unless we add outside pieces, but I do see improvement, ahead. Nothing is a guarantee, of course.

 

[jung]

Since you posted this twice, a response is due.

 

Sox payroll is $182M, 11th biggest. But then you have to subtract $17M they are paying Sale to pitch for Atlanta, $7M to Turner, who's also gone, $22.5M for Story who's missed the season, ditto $18M for Giolito, $19M for Yoshida who is out for an indeterminate period and who couldn't hit before then, and $3.5M for Whitlock, who's missing 5/6 of the season. Subtract that $87M, and you have a $95M payroll, of which $29M goes to Devers, and $16M. Both are having good seasons, but that leaves just $50M to pay for 12 of the Sox 13 pitches and 12 of the Sox 13 position players.

 

By my reckoning, they should have a losing record.

 

Didn't mean to post it twice. Not even sure how it happened. Forum does seem less than responsive to keystrokes today.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not optimistic about out future due to anything the Sox brass has fed the media over the years. I don't trust a thing they say. I'm not expecting a change from them. I'm not sure they will ever invest in the team, again, and I'm not counting on it, but I'm also not discounting it like some are.

 

Bloom chose to draft mostly HS prospects high in the draft. I don't need top brass to tell me I'll have to wait. It is what it is.

 

That time seems to be very near, now. That gives me hope. If I'm in a small minority, so be it. It would not be the first time.

 

I've admitted our young core or "foundation" is not as good as several other teams, on paper. I get that. I'm not projecting our roster to be the strongest in MLB in 2026, but I do think it will be much better and playoff worthy, perhaps as soon as 2025.

 

A lot will depend on what pieces we acquire to fill the gaps, which seems to always be the case. That is the great unknown and something that kicks my optimism in the gut, but even with nothing added, I think we will be better.

 

C: Wong & Teel > Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas in prime> Pre-prime Casas/Dalbec/Cooper/Smith

2B: Future Grissom & Story/Yorke/Valdez > This year's merry-go-round

SS: Mayer & Story> This year's merry-go-round

3B: Devers= and older Devers & Story or Mayer?

LF: Duran/Ref=Duran/Ref

CF: Rafaela/Duran & Anthony > Rafaela/Duran & others

RF: Abreu & O'Neill ?> Abreu & Anthony

DH: O'Neill & Yoshi ?> Abreu/Devers/Casas/Yoshida

 

I like or rotation future core better than I did in March.

I like our future pen depth better than I did in March.

 

It will probably not be enough for another ing, unless we add outside pieces, but I do see improvement, ahead. Nothing is a guarantee, of course.

 

 

Good post. I find myself agreeing more lately with Max and others about the putrid offense. I've been a Sox fan long enough to know that we're going nowhere without pitching, and "good pitching beats good hitting." But when pitching isn't always good (always good is implausible), good hitting can still win games and at least make them watchable -- like in the 70s and 80s and 03 and 05 and 08 and 19, etc.

 

Right now, if the starting pitchers aren't good, there is little chance for any comeback Ws. Maybe in a few years Rafaela will step into the box with a count of 0-0 instead of 0-2 -- and that will make a difference, since his bat is already one of the few with any charge in it.

 

I don't know where the right-handed pop will come from -- looking at MLB stats today, there are 11 RHH AL batters with .800 OPS, and only 7 in the NL. That seems rarer these days than 100 mph fastballs.

[moonslav59]

Good post. I find myself agreeing more lately with Max and others about the putrid offense. I've been a Sox fan long enough to know that we're going nowhere without pitching, and "good pitching beats good hitting." But when pitching isn't always good (always good is implausible), good hitting can still win games and at least make them watchable -- like in the 70s and 80s and 03 and 05 and 08 and 19, etc.

 

Right now, if the starting pitchers aren't good, there is little chance for any comeback Ws. Maybe in a few years Rafaela will step into the box with a count of 0-0 instead of 0-2 -- and that will make a difference, since his bat is already one of the few with any charge in it.

 

I don't know where the right-handed pop will come from -- looking at MLB stats today, there are 11 RHH AL batters with .800 OPS, and only 7 in the NL. That seems rarer these days than 100 mph fastballs.

 

The RHB issue is not going away, as Mayer, Anthony and Teel are all LHBs.

 

We took a stab at it with O'Neill and to a lesser extent with Grissom. Losing Story hurt. Wong has had big reverse splits for two years in a row. So, we mainly rely on O'Neill and Refsnyder, who himself, now has reverse splits.

 

I guess if your LHBs are good enough, and can hit LHPs, pretty well, maybe we can get by without.

 

It sure helped our ring teams to have Manny ('04 & '07), Napoli & Vic ('13) and JD & Bogey ('18)

[jung]

I'm not optimistic about out future due to anything the Sox brass has fed the media over the years. I don't trust a thing they say. I'm not expecting a change from them. I'm not sure they will ever invest in the team, again, and I'm not counting on it, but I'm also not discounting it like some are.

 

Bloom chose to draft mostly HS prospects high in the draft. I don't need top brass to tell me I'll have to wait. It is what it is.

 

That time seems to be very near, now. That gives me hope. If I'm in a small minority, so be it. It would not be the first time.

 

I've admitted our young core or "foundation" is not as good as several other teams, on paper. I get that. I'm not projecting our roster to be the strongest in MLB in 2026, but I do think it will be much better and playoff worthy, perhaps as soon as 2025.

 

A lot will depend on what pieces we acquire to fill the gaps, which seems to always be the case. That is the great unknown and something that kicks my optimism in the gut, but even with nothing added, I think we will be better.

 

C: Wong & Teel > Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas in prime> Pre-prime Casas/Dalbec/Cooper/Smith

2B: Future Grissom & Story/Yorke/Valdez > This year's merry-go-round

SS: Mayer & Story> This year's merry-go-round

3B: Devers= and older Devers & Story or Mayer?

LF: Duran/Ref=Duran/Ref

CF: Rafaela/Duran & Anthony > Rafaela/Duran & others

RF: Abreu & O'Neill ?> Abreu & Anthony

DH: O'Neill & Yoshi ?> Abreu/Devers/Casas/Yoshida

 

I like or rotation future core better than I did in March.

I like our future pen depth better than I did in March.

 

It will probably not be enough for another ing, unless we add outside pieces, but I do see improvement, ahead. Nothing is a guarantee, of course.

 

 

I agree. The point I was trying to make is that at least it is not a boring team to watch. They are an interesting team to watch. They have young, athletic players that are raw talents. In the old days, raw talents were refined in the minor leagues. Its a bit late to be lacking fundamentals in the big leagues. So it is much like watching a team of players with wonderful athletic talent that don't have much of an idea what they are doing.

 

All of this cacophony about off speed pitches is also interesting. I am not convinced myself and it does not look to me like much of the staff is convinced either. None of them are a budding Greg Maddux. None of them can even do a decent imitation. So I don't really know where this is going. But it is yet another interesting thing to watch.

 

Will they get better? At least as to fundamentals, it appears that osmosis will have to save us. However this does look like the basis for a better team someday. Till then, being an interesting team to watch will have to do in my case.

Edited May 27, 2024 by jung

[moonslav59]

 

Right now, if the starting pitchers aren't good, there is little chance for any comeback Ws. Maybe in a few years Rafaela will step into the box with a count of 0-0 instead of 0-2 -- and that will make a difference, since his bat is already one of the few with any charge in it.

 

Good offensive teams are more fun to watch, too, but I am liking watching our young pitchers grow.

 

We have some nice young pen arms, too.

 

I've always loved watching great defense, something Sox teams are not all that great at. I like the look of our future defense, especially an OF with Rafaela, Abreu, Duran & Anthony.

 

Mayer is a bit of an unknown on D, but word is, he's good. Casas and Grissom need to improve. Devers needs to gain consistency. I'm not sure Teel can match McGuire on D.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good offensive teams are more fun to watch, too, but I am liking watching our young pitchers grow.

 

We have some nice young pen arms, too.

 

I've always loved watching great defense, something Sox teams are not all that great at. I like the look of our future defense, especially an OF with Rafaela, Abreu, Duran & Anthony.

 

Mayer is a bit of an unknown on D, but word is, he's good. Casas and Grissom need to improve. Devers needs to gain consistency. I'm not sure Teel can match McGuire on D.

 

The defense is improved - can't get much worse after last year - but anyone who watches most games must have burped up their cookouts when O'Brien called the Sox D "ELITE" today.

 

This was in a game when the infield couldn't complete a tailor-made double play -- and the batter who was safe then immediately scored on a gapper. It was the first run in a blow-out loss.

[jad]

In 2019 the Sox had the highest payroll in MLB and didn't make the playoffs with an 84-78 record. The year before, with basically the same players, they had the best season in Sox history, which was the 4th WS win in the John Henry era (2002-2024 and counting) after the 86 year WS drought.

 

So I think it's fair to say that JH understood the value of paying for talent. But 2019 was the perfect example of how expensive talent, especially pitching, doesn't necessarily deliver.

 

That's being repeated again this year. Top payroll, $307M, belongs to the Mets, who are 22-30. 3d is the Astros, $249M, who are 24-29, and 5th are the Rangers, $233M, who are 25-29. The Sox @ $182 will be 27-27 when this game is over.

 

Meanwhile, worth noting are the Orioles, 26th biggest payroll, $100M, who will be 34-18 after this game, the Guardians 25th biggest payroll, $101M, with a 36-17 record, the Brewers 22d payroll, $107M, with a 30-22 record, and the Royals 20th payroll, $116M, with a 34-20 record.

 

Back to Mookie, whose Dodgers payroll is 7th, $229M. They are currently 33-22, , which would put them behind the Orioles and their 26th payroll, $100M, and also behind the Royals, 34-20, and their 20th payroll, $116M.

 

And? Not sure I follow you. Or are you just listing some figures.

[moonslav59]

The defense is improved - can't get much worse after last year - but anyone who watches most games must have burped up their cookouts when O'Brien called the Sox D "ELITE" today.

 

This was in a game when the infield couldn't complete a tailor-made double play -- and the batter who was safe then immediately scored on a gapper. It was the first run in a blow-out loss.

 

It's not fun watching this D.

[notin]

It's not fun watching this D.

 

It’s more fun than watching last year’s, unless you liked the excitement of wondering whether or not that routine groundball to shortstop would result in an out…

[moonslav59]

It’s more fun than watching last year’s, unless you liked the excitement of wondering whether or not that routine groundball to shortstop would result in an out…

 

Better than the far and away worst D in the league does not make it fun.

 

I wouldn't say more fun, either. I'd say "less painful."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Better than the far and away worst D in the league does not make it fun.

 

I wouldn't say more fun, either. I'd say "less painful."

 

When OB called it "elite", I had to use the online dictionary. I know what the E stands for, but learned that Leet is obsolete for "a place where roads meet or cross"...

 

... so what OB meant is every time a ball crosses in front of an infielder, there's a good chance for an error; the Red Sox defense is E LEET.