A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

We could also attribute some of it to allocating $33 million of AAV to DH's - Yoshida and Turner.

 

Just horrible decision-making all around.

Well Turner worked out at least.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Chaim is really s***** at math, and that's why they spent too much in '22 and too little in '23.

 

I think he got scared by the Vaz blowback and was too indecisive to pull off a last second deal in ‘22. In ‘23, he just turtled because he wanted to stay as far away from the cap as possible and then wait for a deadline deal that he was unable to pull off.

[Bellhorn04]

Well Turner worked out at least.

 

Even that can be disputed. His injury-plagued finish knocked his fWAR down to 1.2 and a value of $9.6 million for a cost of $15 million.

 

Turns out to be a dubious strategy to throw such a pile of money at guys who can't field or run.

[Bellhorn04]

I think he got scared by the Vaz blowback and was too indecisive to pull off a last second deal in ‘22. In ‘23, he just turtled because he wanted to stay as far away from the cap as possible and then wait for a deadline deal that he was unable to pull off.

 

He performed his Mr. Dithers act over and over. Even in '21 we were underwhelmed by the deadline moves, but Schwarber worked out well obviously.

[jacksonianmarch]

2 starters, a decent DH and a 2b. That is really it. You can get the last two for low money. Big money is the first 2. It isn't hard. Pen should be good. Lineup needs tweaks but should be good. Rotation blows

[mvp 78]

Even that can be disputed. His injury-plagued finish knocked his fWAR down to 1.2 and a value of $9.6 million for a cost of $15 million.

 

Turns out to be a dubious strategy to throw such a pile of money at guys who can't field or run.

 

I think Turner was fine. Get multiple DH types was a bad choice for sure.

[Bellhorn04]

2 starters, a decent DH and a 2b. That is really it. You can get the last two for low money. Big money is the first 2. It isn't hard. Pen should be good. Lineup needs tweaks but should be good. Rotation blows

 

Rotation blows unless they make 2 impactful adds, it's pretty simple.

 

If they can somehow outbid the field for Moto they can figure out the rest of it easily enough, I'd say.

[mvp 78]

Rotation blows unless they make 2 impactful adds, it's pretty simple.

 

If they can somehow outbid the field for Moto they can figure out the rest of it easily enough, I'd say.

 

Even if it’s just Yamamoto, they need to add to the rotation IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even if it’s just Yamamoto, they need to add to the rotation IMO.

 

They need more than that. Moto goes to the 1, Bello to the 2. The rest is a crap shoot.

[Bellhorn04]

They need more than that. Moto goes to the 1, Bello to the 2. The rest is a crap shoot.

 

True, but getting Moto is the heavy lifting part, one might say.

[notin]

2 starters, a decent DH and a 2b. That is really it. You can get the last two for low money. Big money is the first 2. It isn't hard. Pen should be good. Lineup needs tweaks but should be good. Rotation blows

 

I think DH is likely to be Yoshida.

 

The Forum Wish List is a RHH RF to replace Verdugo, along with that aforementioned 2b and SPs…

[notin]

They need more than that. Moto goes to the 1, Bello to the 2. The rest is a crap shoot.

 

Yamamoto, Sale, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta. If Sale is healthy, it’s not horrible.

[mvp 78]

They need more than that. Moto goes to the 1, Bello to the 2. The rest is a crap shoot.

 

Sale - injury risk is high

Houck - 5th starter

Pivetta - 5th starter

Crawfor - 5th starter

Whitlock - injury risk

[Bellhorn04]

I think DH is likely to be Yoshida.

 

The Forum Wish List is a RHH RF to replace Verdugo, along with that aforementioned 2b and SPs…

 

I don't think anyone is actually going to be terribly surprised or upset if they keep Verdugo. That's just something for us to jabber about, compared to the matter of the SPs.

[mvp 78]

Yamamoto, Sale, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta. If Sale is healthy, it’s not horrible.

 

If it takes a month or two for Yamamoto to adjust, the season is over for that rotation. They’d need to be carried by a CY performance to be respectable.

[Bellhorn04]

If they get Moto it'll demonstrate that the owners still have the financial will to go for it.

 

Then most of the rest will be up to Breslow.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yamamoto, Sale, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta. If Sale is healthy, it’s not horrible.

 

But if you're a first-year CBO counting on Sale, that's horrible.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even if it’s just Yamamoto, they need to add to the rotation IMO.

 

Especially if it's just Yamamoto, who'll be joining the majors a year younger than the similarly-hyped Daisuke Matsuzaka (but most likely at a lot longer contract).

 

The Sox inked Matsusaka for six years. Boston got 9.5 WAR from Dice K in his first two seasons, then -0.3 WAR over his last four...

[Dipre]

Especially if it's just Yamamoto, who'll be joining the majors a year younger than the similarly-hyped Daisuke Matsuzaka (but most likely at a lot longer contract).

 

The Sox inked Matsusaka for six years. Boston got 9.5 WAR from Dice K in his first two seasons, then -0.3 WAR over his last four...

 

It's a good case study, but the two are completely different animals. The main issue with Yamamoto is injury risk, but the difference in stuff quality is wild.

[notin]

But if you're a first-year CBO counting on Sale, that's horrible.

 

I don’t think any CBO can simply consider a player making 10-15% of his payroll as sunk cost as quickly as forum contributors do. Sale is part of this team, just like Eovaldi was in Texas last year.

 

They might be able to get a SP to replace him. (Or replace Crawford when Sale is healthy.)

[notin]

Especially if it's just Yamamoto, who'll be joining the majors a year younger than the similarly-hyped Daisuke Matsuzaka (but most likely at a lot longer contract).

 

The Sox inked Matsusaka for six years. Boston got 9.5 WAR from Dice K in his first two seasons, then -0.3 WAR over his last four...

 

 

Yamamoto is a big time gamble. What Japanese starting pitcher was the most successful in MLB? Tanaka?

[Bellhorn04]

Sale is a wild card. He might post 4 fWAR. He might not throw a pitch.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's a good case study, but the two are completely different animals. The main issue with Yamamoto is injury risk, but the difference in stuff quality is wild.

 

Agreed, but Dice K's stuff was billed as mythological during the bidding. We're still waiting to see (or not see) the gyro-ball...

 

And he turned out to be an injury-risk, as well -- as any MLB org should've suspected with a guy whose pitch-count in Japan tournaments was 250...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yamamoto is a big time gamble. What Japanese starting pitcher was the most successful in MLB? Tanaka?

 

I think in WAR it's Darvish, 31 bWAR and counting...

[Bellhorn04]

Yamamoto is a big time gamble. What Japanese starting pitcher was the most successful in MLB? Tanaka?

 

Ohtani has been fairly proficient when not being sidetracked by surgeries.

 

Kuroda was also very good, especially considering the advanced age at which he migrated.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but Dice K's stuff was billed as mythological during the bidding. We're still waiting to see (or not see) the gyro-ball...

 

And he turned out to be an injury-risk, as well -- as any MLB org should've suspected with a guy whose pitch-count in Japan tournaments was 250...

 

Yeah, I think the Japanese team destroyed his arm in the second WBC he appeared in after we signed him.

[notin]

I think in WAR it's Darvish, 31 bWAR and counting...

 

He escaped my mind, but that’s certainly a good call.

[moonslav59]

You're right, it doesn't make a lot of sense, but that was the story.

 

Evidence of the Sham.

[moonslav59]

We could also attribute some of it to allocating $33 million of AAV to DH's - Yoshida and Turner.

 

Just horrible decision-making all around.

 

With the way Devers plays D, one could argue we will start paying $300M to another DH in 24.

[Bellhorn04]

Evidence of the Sham.

 

We couldn't even win the bidding for guys that signed for a measly $40-50 million!