Trade Deadline 2023

[Maxbialystock]

This year is probably the biggest free-for-all ever, though, what with the 3 Wild Card spots in each league and the overall parity that seems to be showing up in the records.

 

I think mathematical parity has been around forever, but I don't disagree that right now it's impressive that 10 of 15 teams in the AL are at .500 or better. In the NL it's just 8 of 15 teams.

 

A footnote to the above is that Miami, Tampa, and Baltimore team salaries are ranked 22d, 28th, and 29th in MLB and all have solid winning records. Indeed, all three have better records than the top four MLB team salaries: Mets, Yankees, Padres, and Phillies.

[moonslav59]

In the AL, only OAK & KCR look far enough out of their division race and the WC3 slot. I'm not sure what they have to "sell off." OAK has already sold off many of their most expensive pieces.

 

The CWS are 8.5 behind MIN, who leads the ALC with a 45-43 record (same as the last place Sox.) My guess is they will be sellers.

 

Detroit (-6.0 ALC) could be, too.

 

On the bubble: BOS, SEA, LAA and perhaps TOR, if they tailspin in July.

 

In the NL, WSH and COL should be clear sellers. STL almost certainly will/should be. After that, it might take a bad 3-4 week period for these teams to drop out:

 

PIT 40-47 (-8.5 NLC and -7.5 WC3)

CHC 40-46 (-8.0 NLC and -7.0 WC3)

SDP 41-46 (-8.5 NLW but -6.5 WC3)

NYM 41-46 (-6.5 NLE and -6.5 WC3)

 

My guess is 9 teams will be sellers:

OAK

COL

WSH

KCR

STL

PIT

CHC

CWS

DET

[moonslav59]

MLBTR lists the top trade deadline candidates:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/top-50-deadline-trade-candidates-early-july-edition.html

 

Some possible targets for Bloom & Co.

 

SP

1. Giolito CWS

4. Montgomery STL

5. Flaherty STL

6. Stroman CHC

8. Bieber CLE

9. Lorensen DET, 12. ERod DET, 13. Lynn CWS, 16. Blackburn OAK, 20. Civale CLE

(Snell is listed at #34.)

 

RP

3. Barlow KCR

7. Robertson NYM

15. Raley NYM, 17. Kelly CWS, 18. Middleton CWS, 19. Lopez CWS

 

SS

22. DeJong STL

 

Sox players listed:

22. Turner

23. Paxton

24. Pivetta

25. Duvall

37. Dalbec

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by moonslav59

[Dipre]

I think mathematical parity has been around forever, but I don't disagree that right now it's impressive that 10 of 15 teams in the AL are at .500 or better. In the NL it's just 8 of 15 teams.

 

A footnote to the above is that Miami, Tampa, and Baltimore team salaries are ranked 22d, 28th, and 29th in MLB and all have solid winning records. Indeed, all three have better records than the top four MLB team salaries: Mets, Yankees, Padres, and Phillies.

 

A drum I will pound until it breaks: You can no longer buy MLB success. You have to earn it through a good talent pipeline and smart spending.

[moonslav59]

A drum I will pound until it breaks: You can no longer buy MLB success. You have to earn it through a good talent pipeline and smart spending.

 

It seems so obvious.

 

Some say our management has no plan. Spending like a maniac is no viable, long term plan.

 

We took the right approach. Now, we have to sit back and see if our scouts and choices were good one.

 

You look at this team, now- sure Turner, Yoshida and Dugo are playing big roles, but we'd be nowhere without Bello, Crawford, Wink, Duran, Casas and a few other small contributions from our recent call-ups.

 

It's no coincidence, we've struggled mightily since 2019, when you realize we only had Houck give us anything useful from the farm from mid 2017 (Devers) to this seasons multi-arrivals.

[Old Red]

It seems so obvious.

 

Some say our management has no plan. Spending like a maniac is no viable, long term plan.

 

We took the right approach. Now, we have to sit back and see if our scouts and choices were good one.

 

You look at this team, now- sure Turner, Yoshida and Dugo are playing big roles, but we'd be nowhere without Bello, Crawford, Wink, Duran, Casas and a few other small contributions from our recent call-ups.

 

It's no coincidence, we've struggled mightily since 2019, when you realize we only had Houck give us anything useful from the farm from mid 2017 (Devers) to this seasons multi-arrivals.

I agree that you can’t buy MLB success, but I think it’s obvious too that Bloom is not the answer in Boston, and have said so since the second he was hired. One year out of the postseason is one year to many, and so on, and so on. It took a long time to break the curse of the Bambino, and it probably will take a long time to break the Gloom, and Doom of Bloom.

[Dipre]

Doesn't matter what we think, or want. Henry owns the team, and he wants a sustainable contender that doesn't waste millions of dollars on injured/underperforming players. They're breaking some eggs to make that omelet.

[notin]

I agree that you can’t buy MLB success, but I think it’s obvious too that Bloom is not the answer in Boston, and have said so since the second he was hired. One year out of the postseason is one year to many, and so on, and so on. It took a long time to break the curse of the Bambino, and it probably will take a long time to break the Gloom, and Doom of Bloom.

 

 

So beyond bias and/or close-mindedness, was that based on anything?

[moonslav59]

Doesn't matter what we think, or want. Henry owns the team, and he wants a sustainable contender that doesn't waste millions of dollars on injured/underperforming players. They're breaking some eggs to make that omelet.

 

Agreed. The Story signing seems to have started out as an injured/underperforming big signing, but he still has time to redeem himself and Bloom.

[Dipre]

So beyond bias and/or close-mindedness, was that based on anything?

 

Graduated Suma Cum Laude in make-it-up-if-you-have-to university.

[notin]

Graduated Suma Cum Laude in make-it-up-if-you-have-to university.

 

Is that where he coined the term Red Sox Nation?

[Dipre]

Is that where he coined the term Red Sox Nation?

 

All the way back in 1905

[moonslav59]

So beyond bias and/or close-mindedness, was that based on anything?

 

Maybe based n the idea that the farm is full of nothing but "suspects," and nothing short of buying winning seasons, every year is a failed plan.

 

Bloom somehow talked JH into massively cutting the budget.

[notin]

All the way back in 1905

 

I understand he also invented the semi-colon.

 

And it was him who put the “bomp” in the bomp-bah-bomp-bah-bomp. Also he was instrumental in putting the “ding” in the Rama-lama-ding-dong.

 

But for that last one, I’d actually like to shake his hand; he made my baby fall in love with me…

[Bellhorn04]

So I see this thread has devolved into the usual random gibberish. Excellent!

[Dipre]

So I see this thread has devolved into the usual random gibberish. Excellent!

 

These are historical facts, sir.

[notin]

These are historical facts, sir.

 

With emphasis on the word “sir”. You can also emphasize “these” or “are.”

 

But probably not “historical” and especially not “facts”…

[Dipre]

Back on topic: An interesting note is that none of the "Top trade candidates list" I've read or watched at CBS, ESPN, FOXSPORTS, or any outlet here in DR lists the Red Sox as buyers for this year's deadline. Most sports broadcasters agree that the Sox should trade Paxton, Duvall, Turner, Hernandez and Arroyo (lol on the last two).

[notin]

Back on topic: An interesting note is that none of the "Top trade candidates list" I've read or watched at CBS, ESPN, FOXSPORTS, or any outlet here in DR lists the Red Sox as buyers for this year's deadline. Most sports broadcasters agree that the Sox should trade Paxton, Duvall, Turner, Hernandez and Arroyo (lol on the last two).

 

The Sox will do the “buy and sell” dual approach.

 

They will move Paxton and Duvall. They will acquire a SP with more years of control than Paxton. Likeliest trade bait - Ceddanne Rafaela, since Duran is making a strong case for CF. But if he can move another prospect instead.

 

With Houck, Whitlock, Sale, Story, etc returning, this team could look very different from today in a couple weeks

[Old Red]

So beyond bias and/or close-mindedness, was that based on anything?

 

It sure as hell isn’t based on the success of the team since Bloom took over. I love being in the minority to the few on here that doesn’t coexist to to the vast majority out in all of Red Sox Nation. LMAO when I here all the spins, and grins trying to prop up the Bloom regime.

[notin]

It sure as hell isn’t based on the success of the team since Bloom took over. I love being in the minority to the few on here that doesn’t coexist to to the vast majority out in all of Red Sox Nation. LMAO when I here all the spins, and grins trying to prop up the Bloom regime.

 

1. So it truly was bias/close-mindedness. A point for honesty, but deducting maximum points for obvious reasons

 

2. You do realize the Sox are winning again, right?

 

3. And if you “love being in the minority…” blah blah blah, that means you’re actually enjoying it when the team fails…

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox will do the “buy and sell” dual approach.

 

They will move Paxton and Duvall. They will acquire a SP with more years of control than Paxton. Likeliest trade bait - Ceddanne Rafaela, since Duran is making a strong case for CF. But if he can move another prospect instead.

 

With Houck, Whitlock, Sale, Story, etc returning, this team could look very different from today in a couple weeks

 

And if the team stays on a good run like the one they're on now? Still trade Paxton? I say no.

 

Everything depends on what happens in the next 3 weeks.

[notin]

And if the team stays on a good run like the one they're on now? Still trade Paxton? I say no.

 

Everything depends on what happens in the next 3 weeks.

 

I think Bloom will trade Paxton for the following reasons:

 

1. With so many teams in contention, there may not be very many sellers, so that’s where the market is.

 

2. Paxton has been good, is cheap, but is not controlled for next season

 

3. Let’s face it - the guy’s arm and shoulder are time bombs. And the timer is winding down…

[moonslav59]

I think Bloom will trade Paxton for the following reasons:

 

1. With so many teams in contention, there may not be very many sellers, so that’s where the market is.

 

2. Paxton has been good, is cheap, but is not controlled for next season

 

3. Let’s face it - the guy’s arm and shoulder are time bombs. And the timer is winding down…

 

I'm not so sure about trading Paxton, but I do think we deal Duvall and use Kike as the back-up or platoon CF'er.

 

If we can trade for a longer term SP'er, I'd still keep Paxton, if we have a shot.

[moonslav59]

1. So it truly was bias/close-mindedness. A point for honesty, but deducting maximum points for obvious reasons

 

2. You do realize the Sox are winning again, right?

 

3. And if you “love being in the minority…” blah blah blah, that means you’re actually enjoying it when the team fails…

 

I guess being right so seldomly makes one cling to it.

[notin]

I'm not so sure about trading Paxton, but I do think we deal Duvall and use Kike as the back-up or platoon CF'er.

 

If we can trade for a longer term SP'er, I'd still keep Paxton, if we have a shot.

 

I stand by my prediction. The other movables - Duvall, Kike, Turner - don’t figure to garner nearly as much interest as Paxton. And there is a good possibility none of them get traded due to lack of interest or better options on the market.

[notin]

I stand by my prediction. The other movables - Duvall, Kike, Turner - don’t figure to garner nearly as much interest as Paxton. And there is a good possibility none of them get traded due to lack of interest or better options on the market.

 

Also - bold prediction coming!

 

Today’s Oakland starter - Paul Blackburn - will finish the season as a member of the Red Sox…

[Bellhorn04]

I stand by my prediction. The other movables - Duvall, Kike, Turner - don’t figure to garner nearly as much interest as Paxton. And there is a good possibility none of them get traded due to lack of interest or better options on the market.

 

So let me get this straight - even if the Sox are a game out of a playoff spot or better at the deadline, you would trade Paxton?

 

I'm surprised, because you were one of the ones opposed to a fire sale last year.

[Old Red]

1. So it truly was bias/close-mindedness. A point for honesty, but deducting maximum points for obvious reasons

 

2. You do realize the Sox are winning again, right?

 

3. And if you “love being in the minority…” blah blah blah, that means you’re actually enjoying it when the team fails…

 

The point being only in the minority on here. Lots of views on here are more are in the minority than many places I frequent on lots of subjects. Now you’ve got me enjoying it when the team fails. No, and I don’t think it was a subject being discussed. On the other hand have you figured it out yet if the Red Sox signed Turner to sit on the bench? That was a good one you came up with. LMAO.

[Old Red]

I guess being right so seldomly makes one cling to it.

 

The most words, and the most post also adds up to the most swings, and misses.