5/16 Mariners @ Sox

[Maxbialystock]

Castillo vs. Pivetta, both righties.

 

Huge edge to Seattle in pitching, just like last night. Pivetta stinks, and the Sox bullpen is in a state of collapse.

 

First time facing Pivetta, opposing lineups' collective OPS has been an unreal 1.061. 2d time through, OPS .789. 3d time through, OPS .634. If those numbers hold true again tonight and Pivetta gets hammered, I think Cora will leave him in for at least 100 pitches to save the bullpen arms.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

"Broke, busted, disgusted, the bullpen can't be trusted, and now Cora wants to go to Plan B. Casas can't take it; he says he'll have to fake it. We hoped he'd hit eventually. And now World Series dreamin' has become an unreality." Apologies to John Phillips.

[Old Red]

Castillo vs. Pivetta, both righties.

 

Huge edge to Seattle in pitching, just like last night. Pivetta stinks, and the Sox bullpen is in a state of collapse.

 

First time facing Pivetta, opposing lineups' collective OPS has been an unreal 1.061. 2d time through, OPS .789. 3d time through, OPS .634. If those numbers hold true again tonight and Pivetta gets hammered, I think Cora will leave him in for at least 100 pitches to save the bullpen arms.

 

Pivetta is due a good game, so hopefully it’s tonight. Someone, anyone has to be a stopper. Rotation, or the pen it doesn’t matter.

[Maxbialystock]

Pivetta is due a good game, so hopefully it’s tonight. Someone, anyone has to be a stopper. Rotation, or the pen it doesn’t matter.

 

Exactly.

[Maxbialystock]

"Broke, busted, disgusted, the bullpen can't be trusted, and now Cora wants to go to Plan B. Casas can't take it; he says he'll have to fake it. We hoped he'd hit eventually. And now World Series dreamin' has become an unreality." Apologies to John Phillips.

 

What plan B?

[Bellhorn04]

What plan B?

 

Chuck in the towel (again) if there's an early deficit (again)?

[mvp 78]

"Broke, busted, disgusted, the bullpen can't be trusted, and now Cora wants to go to Plan B. Casas can't take it; he says he'll have to fake it. We hoped he'd hit eventually. And now World Series dreamin' has become an unreality." Apologies to John Phillips.

 

Casas has hit really well the past two weeks. All of his metrics (k%, EV, WOBA) of trending in the right direction even as some of these other guys are going the other way.

 

May:

wRC+ 147

OPS 915

k% 17.5

[Maxbialystock]

Chuck in the towel (again) if there's an early deficit (again)?

 

Nope. I'd start Bello tonight and Paxton tomorrow night because both have had or will have had the requisite 5 days rest. Bello's last start was May 10th and Paxton's was May 12th.

 

And I'd put Pivetta in the bullpen for long relief. I've said this elsewhere but it bears repeating. When Pivetta starts, his OPS against for the first time through the opposing lineup is 1.062, so maybe coming out of the bullpen would be good for him. In addition, right now the bullpen is absolutely desperate for arms and the rotation is not.

[Maxbialystock]

Casas has hit really well the past two weeks. All of his metrics (k%, EV, WOBA) of trending in the right direction even as some of these other guys are going the other way.

 

May:

wRC+ 147

OPS 915

k% 17.5

 

Thanks. I had that impression but not the data.

[Old Red]

Casas has hit really well the past two weeks. All of his metrics (k%, EV, WOBA) of trending in the right direction even as some of these other guys are going the other way.

 

May:

wRC+ 147

OPS 915

k% 17.5

 

I think Casas does better when he swings at the first good pitch, and looks like he wants to hit instead of taking too many pitches, and looking like he’d rather take a walk. He’s taken a lot of called third strikes.

[Maxbialystock]

I think Casas does better when he swings at the first good pitch, and looks like he wants to hit instead of taking too many pitches, and looking like he’d rather take a walk. He’s taken a lot of called third strikes.

 

You think!!?? Good word because what you say is as good an explanation as any about Casas's hitting.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

What plan B?

 

Plan A was to make a run at the PO's. Plan B is to just stay around .500.

[Maxbialystock]

Plan A was to make a run at the PO's. Plan B is to just stay around .500.

 

Probably true. But I believe rather emphatically that Plan B is driven by the collapse of the bullpen which has put this team into a nosedive.

[moonslav59]

You think!!?? Good word because what you say is as good an explanation as any about Casas's hitting.

 

Maybe he views walking as one of his big strengths, which it is, but he does hit first pitches very well, when he swings. If he tries to swing at more, it does not mean he will do better. He has a good eye, and swinging at bad pitches will not help.

 

BTW, he has swung at 38 first pitches out of 132 total, this year.(.878 OPS)

 

He's at .834 career in 59 swings in 227 PAs.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe he views walking as one of his big strengths, which it is, but he does hit first pitches very well, when he swings. If he tries to swing at more, it does not mean he will do better. He has a good eye, and swinging at bad pitches will not help.

 

BTW, he has swung at 38 first pitches out of 132 total, this year.(.878 OPS)

 

He's at .834 career in 59 swings in 227 PAs.

 

Would you start Bello tonight and Paxton tomorrow night?

[Old Red]

Would you start Bello tonight and Paxton tomorrow night?

 

Max they are not going to change things at the spur of the moment. All these pitches have routines that they go through, and Bello’s is focused on tomorrow, and Pax on Friday.

[Old Red]

Maybe he views walking as one of his big strengths, which it is, but he does hit first pitches very well, when he swings. If he tries to swing at more, it does not mean he will do better. He has a good eye, and swinging at bad pitches will not help.

 

BTW, he has swung at 38 first pitches out of 132 total, this year.(.878 OPS)

 

He's at .834 career in 59 swings in 227 PAs.

I don’t think Casas eye at the plate is as good as he thinks it is. He’s taken quite a few called third strikes.

[Maxbialystock]

Max they are not going to change things at the spur of the moment. All these pitches have routines that they go through, and Bello’s is focused on tomorrow, and Pax on Friday.

 

I'm sure you're right. But that doesn't mean I agree with Cora. I have, however, backed off blaming him for sending Jansen out to close Saturday's game after the debacle Friday night. Turns out Jansen was probably the best choice. Schreiber was not really available.

[Maxbialystock]

I don’t think Casas eye at the plate is as good as he thinks it is. He’s taken quite a few called third strikes.

 

I think he has a decent eye, but I also think he needs to be more aggressive, which is what you are saying.

[Old Red]

I think he has a decent eye, but I also think he needs to be more aggressive, which is what you are saying.

 

Agree with that.

[Old Red]

I'm sure you're right. But that doesn't mean I agree with Cora. I have, however, backed off blaming him for sending Jansen out to close Saturday's game after the debacle Friday night. Turns out Jansen was probably the best choice. Schreiber was not really available.

Martin was available, and rested.

[moonslav59]

Would you start Bello tonight and Paxton tomorrow night?

 

Tough call, and I don't have all the info Cora has, but with the day off on May 11th, pitching Bello would still give him an extra day off, so in a bubble, I'd go with Bello and give Pivetta some extra-extra rest.

 

Tomorrow? It might be a good idea to break paxton in slowly by giving him an extra day of rest, which he would not get by pitching, tomorrow. (With Thursday off, he'd get 2 extra days.)

 

I might go...

5/16 Bello (+1 day rest)

5/17 Pivetta (+3 days might be what he needs)

Day off

5/19 Paxton (+2) @SDP

5/20 Sale (+2) @SDP

5/21 Kluber (+2) @SDP (I might give Kluber a day or more off)

5/22 Bello (+1) @LAA (maybe pitch him on the 21st)

5/23 Pivetta (+1) @LAA (or maybe Kluber here, if he pitched well in his previous start)

5/24 Paxton (no extra rest) @LAA

OFF

5/26 Sale (+1) @AZ

5/27 Whitlock or Crawford? (Or, Bello over Kluber)@AZ

5/28 ??? It's getting too far out@AZ

OFF

Home for 3 v CIN then 4 v TBR

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

Tough call, and I don't have all the info Cora has, but with the day off on May 11th, pitching Bello would still give him an extra day off, so in a bubble, I'd go with Bello and give Pivetta some extra-extra rest.

 

Tomorrow? It might be a good idea to break paxton in slowly by giving him an extra day of rest, which he would not get by pitching, tomorrow. (With Thursday off, he'd get 2 extra days.)

 

I might go...

5/16 Bello (+1 day rest)

5/17 Pivetta (+3 days might be what he needs)

Day off

5/19 Paxton (+2) @SDP

5/20 Sale (+2) @SDP

5/21 Kluber (+2) @SDP (I might give Kluber a day or more off)

5/22 Bello (+1) @LAA (maybe pitch him on the 21st)

5/23 Pivetta (+1) @LAA (or maybe Kluber here, if he pitched well in his previous start)

5/24 Paxton (no extra rest) @LAA

OFF

5/26 Sale (+1) @AZ

5/27 Whitlock or Crawford? (Or, Bello over Kluber)@AZ

5/28 ??? It's getting too far out@AZ

OFF

Home for 3 v CIN then 4 v TBR

 

 

 

Interesting. For now you see some value in keeping Pivetta in the rotation. I don't, but on the other hand he does have an OPS-against of 1.062 when he faces hitters for the first time. This suggests he would be even worse in the bullpen.

[Maxbialystock]

FWIW, the Mariners are ranked 15th in MLB in runs scored and 25th in team OPS.

[Old Red]

FWIW, the Mariners are ranked 15th in MLB in runs scored and 25th in team OPS.

 

That’s not against Red Sox pitching though. Red Sox pitching put the Cardinals into a bigger roll, and scored 18 last night.

[Maxbialystock]

That’s not against Red Sox pitching though. Red Sox pitching put the Cardinals into a bigger roll, and scored 18 last night.

 

15th in runs scored is pretty good. They are also 1st in MLB in team ERA. That explains the 1 run last night and the danger tonight.

[Old Red]

15th in runs scored is pretty good. They are also 1st in MLB in team ERA. That explains the 1 run last night and the danger tonight.

 

The pitcher Castillo going tonight is someone they got in a trade last year. Something it appears that Bloom is afraid to do, and would rather go bargain basement shopping.

[mvp 78]

@itsbrianbarrett

Pivetta v. Castillo is not ideal

 

Pivetta

 

51.9% hard hit rate - 113th of 114 starters (minimum 30 innings)

 

15.4% barrel % - 113th

 

1.50 WHIP - 86th

 

5.79 FIP - 104th

[Maxbialystock]

Thanks everyone for a good discussion. I'm afraid the actual game could be painful.

[Old Red]

@itsbrianbarrett

Pivetta v. Castillo is not ideal

 

Pivetta

 

51.9% hard hit rate - 113th of 114 starters (minimum 30 innings)

 

15.4% barrel % - 113th

 

1.50 WHIP - 86th

 

5.79 FIP - 104th

 

I don’t know much of what any of this means, but I take it that it doesn’t mean it’s good.