2023 Prospects

moonslav59 · November 18, 2023

WOO’s pitching was bad the past few years because of talent, not coaching. The team should be a little bit better going forward.

It might depend on Drohan and how long Walter, Murphy and others are on the big club vs WOO.

moonslav59 · November 18, 2023

They project the Woo staff as such:

SP: Walter, Drohan, Gambrell, Van Belle, Santos

RP: Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Jacques, Guerrero, Fernandez, Hagenman, Politi, Booser

Most IP at WOO in '23:

Walter

Drohan

Bearclaw

Mosqueda

Faria

Politi

Booser

R Gomez

Gudino

Murphy

Dermody

Shugart

(All over 40 IP)

Edited November 18, 2023 by moonslav59

Larry Cook · November 18, 2023

They project the Woo staff as such:

SP: Walter, Drohan, Gambrell, Van Belle, Santos
RP: Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Jacques, Guerrero, Fernandez, Hagenman, Politi, Booser

Most IP at WOO in '23:
Walter
Drohan
Bearclaw
Mosqueda
Faria
Politi
Booser
R Gomez
Gudino
Murphy
Dermody
Shugart
(All over 40 IP)

I was hoping Troye would be at Worcester in the bullpen

mvp 78 · November 18, 2023

I was hoping Troye would be at Worcester in the bullpen

1.52 WHIP at POR last year. Needs a little more time. Probably called up to WOO midseason.

Larry Cook · November 18, 2023

1.52 WHIP at POR last year. Needs a little more time. Probably called up to WOO midseason.

He has decent stuff, but once every month or two, he loses it and gets destroyed!!!!

But when he is right, he can get guys out with stuff alone

moonslav59 · November 18, 2023

I'd much prefer quality to quantity, and hopefully Brez can make that happen, but we have a lot of pitchers with various levels of promise that might impress, next summer. Most are lower down on the soxprospects rankings list, but 25 of the top 60 are pitchers (12 from #25 to #41.)

7. Perales A+ (to AA/AAA?)

8. Wikelman AA (to AAA?)

13. Drohan AAA

15. Walter AAA/MLB

25. Monegro A+ (to AA?)

26. E R-C A+

27. Mata MLB (out of options)

28. Dobbins AA

29. Guerrero AAA

30. Bastardo AA

31. Fernandez AAA

32. Hoppe AA (may have a better chance at AAA than Troye)

36. Rogers A+ (to AA?)

38. Gambrell AAA (to MLB?)

39. Troye AA (to AAA?)

41. Paez A+

46. I Coffey AA

49. Penrod AA

50. Bell A+

53. Zeferjahn AAA

54. Cepeda A+

55. Sena A+

59. Duffy A+

60. Song AA

Recent grads:

'21: Whitlock & Houck

'22: Crawford, Winckowski, Bello

'23: Kelly, Bernardino, Murphy, Jacques, Robertson

NR

AAA: Van Belle, Santos, Politi, Booser, German

AA: Liu, Denlinger, Webb

A+ de la Rosa, Dean, Wu-Yelland

The updated winter rankings are due in early December.

Larry Cook · November 19, 2023

I'd much prefer quality to quantity, and hopefully Brez can make that happen, but we have a lot of pitchers with various levels of promise that might impress, next summer. Most are lower down on the soxprospects rankings list, but 25 of the top 60 are pitchers (12 from #25 to #41.)

7. Perales A+ (to AA/AAA?)
8. Wikelman AA (to AAA?)
13. Drohan AAA
15. Walter AAA/MLB
25. Monegro A+ (to AA?)
26. E R-C A+
27. Mata MLB (out of options)
28. Dobbins AA
29. Guerrero AAA
30. Bastardo AA
31. Fernandez AAA
32. Hoppe AA (may have a better chance at AAA than Troye)
36. Rogers A+ (to AA?)
38. Gambrell AAA (to MLB?)
39. Troye AA (to AAA?)
41. Paez A+
46. I Coffey AA
49. Penrod AA
50. Bell A+
53. Zeferjahn AAA
54. Cepeda A+
55. Sena A+
59. Duffy A+
60. Song AA

Recent grads:
'21: Whitlock & Houck
'22: Crawford, Winckowski, Bello
'23: Kelly, Bernardino, Murphy, Jacques, Robertson

NR
AAA: Van Belle, Santos, Politi, Booser, German
AA: Liu, Denlinger, Webb
A+ de la Rosa, Dean, Wu-Yelland

The updated winter rankings are due in early December.

The pitchers ranked 27 to 31 all have a chance to play in Boston at some point in 24 or 25! I do not think any of them have elite stuff, but they can contribute

moonslav59 · November 19, 2023

The pitchers ranked 27 to 31 all have a chance to play in Boston at some point in 24 or 25! I do not think any of them have elite stuff, but they can contribute

We’ll see a shuffle in the rankings in December:

Drohan drops

Monegro and Gambrell rise

Larry Cook · November 20, 2023

Outside of winkleman or maybe Perales, do any of our pitchers have elite stuff???

moonslav59 · November 20, 2023

Outside of winkleman or maybe Perales, do any of our pitchers have elite stuff???

Hard to know on some of the far away pitchers.

mvp 78 · November 20, 2023

Outside of winkleman or maybe Perales, do any of our pitchers have elite stuff???

Not at the moment.

Larry Cook · November 20, 2023

I would like to see us draft tenn. pitcher burns in the first round so we have our 3rd pitcher with elite stuff

mvp 78 · November 22, 2023

Could this be soxprospects.com's next top 20?

1. Anthony
2. Mayer
3. Teel
4. Cespedes
5. Bleis
6. Rafaela
7. Wikelman
8. Yorke
9. Abreu
10. Perales
11. Zanetello
12. Monegro
13. Joh Garcia
14. Castro
15. EValdez
16. Anderson
17. Meidroth
18. Romero
19. Drohan
20. Gambrell (Drohan?)

Anthony

Mayer

Teel

Rafaela

Bleis

Yorke

Perales

Abreu

Wikelman

Cespedes

Zanetello

Meidroth

Castro

Johanfran

Drohan

Hickey

Paulino

Romero

Jordan

Monegro

mvp 78 · November 22, 2023

On the 19th ranked prospect:

@Blaze_j24

Weighed in at 210.7 lbs today, down 15.3 lbs since last game of season

Closer and closer to my goal to start spring new me

moonslav59 · November 24, 2023

Soxprospects.com came out with their end of year rankings...

https://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm

(movement from July 6 rankings)

1. Anthony (from 4)

2. Mayer (down 1)

3. Teel (NR)

4. Rafaela (passed by Teel)

5. Bleis (down from 2)

6. Yorke (down 1)

7. Perales

8. Abreu (up from 20)

9. Wikelman

10. Cespedes (up from 23)

11. Zanetello

12. Meidroth (up 2)

13. Castro (up 11)

14. Joh. Garcia (up 2)

15. Drohan (down from 6)

16. Hickey (up 5)

17. Paulino

18, Romero (down 10)

19. Jordan (down 4)

20. Monegro (not in top 30)

moonslav59 · November 25, 2023

soxprospects.com gradutaed E Valdez in November.

Roberston graduated in SEP.

moonslav59 · November 25, 2023

Some observations on the soxprospects.com rankings:

1. There are 3 pitchers in the top 19:

#7 Perales

#9 Wikelman

#15 Drohan

Then, there are 14 in the next 20 that are pitchers:

#20 Monegro

#23 Dobbins

#24 E R-C

#25 Guerrero

#26 Bastardo

#27 Mata

#28 Hoppe

#31 Fernandez

#32 Walter

#33 Troye

#34 Rogers

#36 Gambrell

#38 Penrod

#39 Paez

2. I expected Gambrell (36) and ICoffey (44) to be ranked much more highly, but most of what I know about these two is what I read on that site and by looking at their stats.

3. Highest Rule 5 eligible:

#13 Castro

#15 Drohan

#17 Paulino

#26 Bastardo

4. Biggest drops since April 5th:

(Graduated: 2 Casas, 15 EValdez, 17 Murphy, 27 Kelly)

Mata 5 to 27 (out of options)

Romero 7 to 18

Walter 9 to 32

Paulino 10 to 17

Lugo 12 to 53

Kavadas 20 to NR in top 60

Bonaci 22 to NR in top 60

C Coffey 23 to 37

Koss 28 to NR in top 60

McDonough 30 to 41

5. Biggest gains since April 5th:

(Players added to system after April 5 or had not played in system prior to 2023: Teel 3, Cespedes 10, Zanetello 11, A Anderson 22, Arias 30)

Abreu 24 to 8 (came in Vaz trade)

Meidroth 29 to 12

Castro NR top 30 to 13

Monegro NR top 30 to 20

Dobbins NR top 30 to 23

Bastardo NR top 30 to 26

Hoppe NR top 30 to 28

6. ETAs:

By the end of '25:

1. Anthony

2. Mayer

3. Teel

4. Rafaela

6. Yorke

8. Abreu

9. Wikelman

12. Meidroth

15. Drohan

16. Hickey

19. Jordan

DHam, Dobbins, Guerrero, Bastardo, Mata, Hoppe

Fernandez, Walter, Troye, Gambrell, Scott, McDonough, ICoffey, Rosier

After the end of '25:

5. Bleis

7. Perales

10. Cespedes

11. Zanetello

13. Castro

14. Joh. Garcia

17. Paulino

18. Romero

20. Monegro

Anderson, E R-C, Alcantara, Arias, Rogers, Brannon, C Coffey, Penrod, Paez

Yuten, Ravelo, K Campbell, Cepeda, Sena, Riemer, Soto, Song

A question: who do you see jumping up in the standings, the most, in 2024?

Who will drop from the top 30 or 60?

Larry Cook · November 25, 2023

Some observations on the soxprospects.com rankings:

1. There are 3 pitchers in the top 19:
#7 Perales
#9 Wikelman
#15 Drohan
Then, there are 14 in the next 20 that are pitchers:
#20 Monegro
#23 Dobbins
#24 E R-C
#25 Guerrero
#26 Bastardo
#27 Mata
#28 Hoppe
#31 Fernandez
#32 Walter
#33 Troye
#34 Rogers
#36 Gambrell
#38 Penrod
#39 Paez

2. I expected Gambrell (36) and ICoffey (44) to be ranked much more highly, but most of what I know about these two is what I read on that site and by looking at their stats.

3. Highest Rule 5 eligible:
#13 Castro
#15 Drohan
#17 Paulino
#26 Bastardo

4. Biggest drops since April 5th:
(Graduated: 2 Casas, 15 EValdez, 17 Murphy, 27 Kelly)
Mata 5 to 27 (out of options)
Romero 7 to 18
Walter 9 to 32
Paulino 10 to 17
Lugo 12 to 53
Kavadas 20 to NR in top 60
Bonaci 22 to NR in top 60
C Coffey 23 to 37
Koss 28 to NR in top 60
McDonough 30 to 41

5. Biggest gains since April 5th:
(Players added to system after April 5 or had not played in system prior to 2023: Teel 3, Cespedes 10, Zanetello 11, A Anderson 22, Arias 30)
Abreu 24 to 8 (came in Vaz trade)
Meidroth 29 to 12
Castro NR top 30 to 13
Monegro NR top 30 to 20
Dobbins NR top 30 to 23
Bastardo NR top 30 to 26
Hoppe NR top 30 to 28

6. ETAs:
By the end of '25:
1. Anthony
2. Mayer
3. Teel
4. Rafaela
6. Yorke
8. Abreu
9. Wikelman
12. Meidroth
15. Drohan
16. Hickey
19. Jordan
DHam, Dobbins, Guerrero, Bastardo, Mata, Hoppe
Fernandez, Walter, Troye, Gambrell, Scott, McDonough, ICoffey, Rosier
After the end of '25:
5. Bleis
7. Perales
10. Cespedes
11. Zanetello
13. Castro
14. Joh. Garcia
17. Paulino
18. Romero
20. Monegro
Anderson, E R-C, Alcantara, Arias, Rogers, Brannon, C Coffey, Penrod, Paez
Yuten, Ravelo, K Campbell, Cepeda, Sena, Riemer, Soto, Song

A question: who do you see jumping up in the standings, the most, in 2024?

Who will drop from the top 30 or 60?

I have always thought Brannon has a beautiful swing and a little power. If he can ever stay healthy, he could explode up the boards.

Also, C Coffey has a nice swing. If he ever learns to pick up the spin on the ball, he could jump up.

Both garcia boys and Paulinho could fall off a cliff because they are lumberjacks

5GoldGlovesOF,75 · November 25, 2023

Rafaela and Abreu will be graduates.

Bleis will jump the most in '24 and make the majors in '25. He's still the Sox' 5-tool prospect, but slightly forgotten because of injury and Anthony's ascension. The latter, along with Teel and Mayer, will all get MLB tastes next season; maybe not a cup of coffee, but at least shots of expresso by September.

Also, if Breslow somehow restructures Boston into contention, don't be surprised if an arm or two gets called up for the stretch run: Gonzalez or Monegro (if they dominate the minors), but more likely a Guerrero or Fernandez (if they're still in the org and not dealt).

Most likely to move up fast on the farm are NazzanZ or Anderson, but the star could be Cespedes. Pure hitter who may force a big league promotion: Hickey.

I don't know enough about Castro; never seen him play. Someone please elaborate...

Edited November 25, 2023 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

moonslav59 · November 25, 2023

Rafaela and Abreu will be graduates.

Bleis will jump the most in '24 and make the majors in '25. He's still the Sox' 5-tool prospect, but slightly forgotten because of injury and Anthony's ascension. The latter, along with Teel and Mayer, will all get MLB tastes next season; maybe not a cup of coffee, but at least shots of expresso by September.

Also, if Breslow somehow restructures Boston into contention, don't be surprised if an arm or two gets called up for the stretch run: Gonzalez or Monegro (if they dominate the minors), but more likely a Guerrero or Fernandez (if they're still in the org and not dealt).

Most likely to move up fast on the farm are NazzanZ or Anderson, but the star could be Cespedes. Pure hitter who may force a big league promotion: Hickey.

I don't know enough about Castro; never seen him play. Someone please elaborate...

I also think Paulino continues falling. I think Drohan does, too.

I project Cespedes, Gambrell, I Coffey and Penrod rise the most.

I think Rafaela may prove to be more of a 5 tooler than Bleis.

Part of me really likes Wikelman and Monegro, but I fear they be our next Walter.

I see Perales and Meidroth as capable of a big rise or fall. Mata and Romero need to stay healthy to get a better read on them. Mata is out of options and may be dealt, because of that.

As for Castro, SPs has this on the switch hitter:

Avg hit tool

Above avg power

Avg speed

Fringy on D in CF/Avg corner OF

Avg arm

"Signed as a middle infielder, moved to the outfield in 2021. "

Summary: "Has the ceiling of an average regular. Wide range of potential outcomes as a lot of his value is tied up in his bat. Projectable frame and switch-hitting ability give him a leg up. Has already shown a solid approach and ability to make consistent, hard contact. If he can get stronger and tap into his raw power, could become a very intriguing prosepct. Has been on the radar for a few years, as scouts identified him as one of the more interesting hitters on a loaded 2022 FCL team."

moonslav59 · November 26, 2023

Breslow is apparently focusing on hard throwing pitchers.

Here is a look at the FB velocities of our prospects, according to soxprospects.com:

7. Perales 94-96 (tops at 99)

9. Wikelman 94-96 (97)

15. Drohan 91-93 (96)

20. Monegro 93-95 (96)

23. Dobbins 92-95 (97)

24. E R-C 91-93 (95)

25. Guerrero 96-98 (100) RP

26. Bastardo 93-95 (97)

27. Mata 95-97 (99) Out of options

28. Hoppe 96-99 (100) RP

31. Fernandez 96-98 (100) RP

32. Walter 89-93 (94)

33. Troye 93-95 (98) RP

34. Rogers 91-94 (96)

36. Gambrell 91-94 (96)

38. Penrod 92-94 (96)

39. Paez 89-91 (92)

44. I Coffey 88-90 (91)

46. Cepeda 95-96 (98) RP

47. Sena 94-97 (98) RP

49. Olivarez 93-97 (100) RP

52. Zeferjahn 95-97 (98) RP

54. Liu 93-95 (98) RP

55. Soto TBD

56. Early Low 90's

58. Cohen TBD

59. Mullins 90-94 RP

60. Song 89-92 (93)

Top Velocity for SP'ers (as of now)

99 Mata 95-97 (out of options- may make pen)

99 Perales 94-96

97 Wikelman 94-96

97 Bastardo 93-95

97 Dobbins 92-95

96 Drohan, Rogers, Gambrell, Penrod

Edited November 26, 2023 by moonslav59

Larry Cook · November 26, 2023

Breslow is apparently focusing on hard throwing pitchers.

And what kind of velocity do Yamamoto and inaegana have??? Does Japanese baseball have any details?

Does Montgomery throw hard enough for bres-slow????

moonslav59 · November 26, 2023

And what kind of velocity do Yamamoto and inaegana have??? Does Japanese baseball have any details?

Does Montgomery throw hard enough for bres-slow????

I have not seen any MPH numbers on Yamo or Imanaga.

fangraphs has Monty at about:

91-94 in 2021

92-94 in 2022

93-94 in 2023

These are not great velocity numbers.

Sonny Gray: 92-93, 91-93, 92-93 (about the same as Monty)

Blake Snell: 94-96, 95-96, 95-97 (looks significantly better)

ERod: 91-93, 90-93 (missed time), 89-93 (lowest of these 4.)

I think Brez might be looking closely at Seth Lugo:

92-95 (topped out at 97)

93-95 (topped at 96)

92-94 as a SP'er only (topped at 95)

I'm not sure what the other 2nd or 3rd tier pitchers are at.

Statcast has these numbers for 2023 (1500+ pitches) on 4 seamers:

97 Ohtani, Luzardo (trade?)

96 Severino, Galsnow, E Cabrera & Cease (trade?), Cobb

95.5 Snell

95 M Keller (trade), Paxton

(Bello and Pivetta are at 95.)

94 Lorenzen, Clevinger (Sale & Houck)

93 Lugo, Monty, Giolito, Flaherty, Gray

Edited November 26, 2023 by moonslav59

moonslav59 · November 27, 2023

Here is my all farm 26 man roster:

SP: Wikelman, Perales, Monegro, Dobbins, Gambrell (not Drohan/E R-C/Bastardo)

RP: Guerrero, Murphy, Walter, Hoppe, Troye, Rogers, I Coffey, Penrod

C: Teel, Joh. Garcia (Scott/Brannon)

1B: Meidroth (Jordan)

2B: Yorke (Alcantara)

SS: Mayer (DHam)

3B: Cespedes (Anderson)

LF: Castro (Rosier)

CF: Bleis (Yuten)

RF: Anthony (Sikes)

DH: EValdez (Hickey)

UT IF: Romero

UT : Paulino

UT: Zanetello

mvp 78 · November 27, 2023

Part of me really likes Wikelman and Monegro, but I fear they be our next Walter.

Walter was a pitchability guy who peaked in AA then got hurt. He needs to be near perfect for his stuff to play up in MLB.

Wikelman and Monegro have better stuff and haven't really reached their full potential yet. I'm not sure either is a starter in MLB, but I think they both have higher ceilings than Walter ever did.

mvp 78 · November 27, 2023

Rafaela and Abreu will be graduates.

Bleis will jump the most in '24 and make the majors in '25. He's still the Sox' 5-tool prospect, but slightly forgotten because of injury and Anthony's ascension. The latter, along with Teel and Mayer, will all get MLB tastes next season; maybe not a cup of coffee, but at least shots of expresso by September.

Also, if Breslow somehow restructures Boston into contention, don't be surprised if an arm or two gets called up for the stretch run: Gonzalez or Monegro (if they dominate the minors), but more likely a Guerrero or Fernandez (if they're still in the org and not dealt).

Most likely to move up fast on the farm are NazzanZ or Anderson, but the star could be Cespedes. Pure hitter who may force a big league promotion: Hickey.

I don't know enough about Castro; never seen him play. Someone please elaborate...

Don't really know much about Anderson and he didn't play all that well in the fall to show that he's going to move anywhere fast.

Cespedes may move up the rankings quickly, but I don't think he's going to be strapped to a rocket. He'll probably start in FCL this year and maybe finish the year in Salem. Even Bleis didn't reach Salem until his second season stateside. With that push, we wouldn't see him in AA until the end of '25 and MLB at the end of '26.

moonslav59 · November 27, 2023

Walter was a pitchability guy who peaked in AA then got hurt. He needs to be near perfect for his stuff to play up in MLB.

Wikelman and Monegro have better stuff and haven't really reached their full potential yet. I'm not sure either is a starter in MLB, but I think they both have higher ceilings than Walter ever did.

I hope you are right. I do remember Walter being hyped quite a bit. soxprospects.com had him as our highest ranked pitcher, last summer (5th- just ahead of Mata at 6th.)

I know it's not all about stats, but these numbers jumped out at me, even though it was just 89 IP in 2021:

0.974 WHIP

132 Ks

20 BBs

6.6 K:BB

2.92 ERA

His numbers in AA in 2022:

0.780 WHIP

Once he hit AAA, his K:BB went down to 2.4. In MLB: 2.3.

68 K's

3 BB

An astounding 22.7 K:BB!

2.88 ERA

mvp 78 · November 27, 2023

Here is my all farm 26 man roster:

SP: Wikelman, Perales, Monegro, Dobbins, Gambrell (not Drohan/E R-C/Bastardo)
RP: Guerrero, Murphy, Walter, Hoppe, Troye, Rogers, I Coffey, Penrod
C: Teel, Joh. Garcia (Scott/Brannon)
1B: Meidroth (Jordan)
2B: Yorke (Alcantara)
SS: Mayer (DHam)
3B: Cespedes (Anderson)
LF: Castro (Rosier)
CF: Bleis (Yuten)
RF: Anthony (Sikes)
DH: EValdez (Hickey)
UT IF: Romero
UT : Paulino
UT: Zanetello

For me, I wouldn't include Dobbins or Paulino. I just don't like their profiles at all. I'd put Drohan instead of Dobbins or Paez if Drohan is picked in Rule 5.

(The projected Greenville Drive rotation is interesting: Perales, Monegro, ERC, Rogers, Duffy, Paez.)

Instead of Paulino, I'd go with either Campbell or Yuten to back up OF (not counting Abreu).

mvp 78 · November 27, 2023

I hope you are right. I do remember Walter being hyped quite a bit. soxprospects.com had him as our highest ranked pitcher, last summer (5th- just ahead of Mata at 6th.)

I know it's not all about stats, but these numbers jumped out at me, even though it was just 89 IP in 2021:

0.974 WHIP
132 Ks
20 BBs
6.6 K:BB
2.92 ERA

His numbers in AA in 2022:
0.780 WHIP

Once he hit AAA, his K:BB went down to 2.4. In MLB: 2.3.
68 K's
3 BB
An astounding 22.7 K:BB!
2.88 ERA

Yup, they sometimes jump a little too high on SSS pitchers that are dominating at lower levels like Drohan and Walter. It's fun to jump on a bandwagon. With Drohan, I remembered what happened to Walter so I wanted to see him do it at AAA at least. It's a little weird because I do remember them talking down players like Denyi Reyes (back in 2018: 1.97 ERA, 155 IP, High A) for being pitchability guys, but they seemed to forget that when they jumped on the Walter train for whatever reason.

moonslav59 · November 27, 2023

For me, I wouldn't include Dobbins or Paulino. I just don't like their profiles at all. I'd put Drohan instead of Dobbins or Paez if Drohan is picked in Rule 5.

(The projected Greenville Drive rotation is interesting: Perales, Monegro, ERC, Rogers, Duffy, Paez.)

Instead of Paulino, I'd go with either Campbell or Yuten to back up OF (not counting Abreu).

I thought about Yuten over Paulino and Campbell over Hickey as the back-up DH.

I also did not like typing in DHam as the back-up SS, when we have so many SSs in the system, but I put Cespedes at 1st string 3B and Romero at 1st string UT IF'er.

I had Dobbins and Gambrell tied for the 4/5 slots. I've lost faith in Drohan.

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