2023 Prospects

[moonslav59]

I think Drohan COULD pass Perales this season. His stuff has ticked up and he's having great results at AA which is considered a fairly high developmental level. I don't see another HUGE jump for Drohan like we saw previously, but minor bumps here and there. The big jump was due to the added velo and new pitch mix which has played up and showed they were right in their evaluations. Drohan is most likely in AA into June, maybe later July if they are managing the WOO rotation.

 

To me, Drohan's jump was largely based on speculation due to the things you mentioned. Now he is showing it and should get another bump.

 

He can't jump as much as he just did. There are not enough slots ahead of him.

[moonslav59]

They said in the game update that his command has been poor. I don't think that's a reason to take him out of the top 10. Mata is still ranked 5th and his command wasn't great last season.

 

Again, I am not saying Drohan will jump Perales, only that it might happen, and nowhere did I say Perales will drop out of the top 10 or even drop. He could stay the same or even rise due to the attrition caused by casas graduating, but Drohan could still pass him. We could see:

 

1. Mayer

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Rafaela

4. Yorke

5. Mata

6. Drohan

7. Perales

8. Romero

9. Walter

[Hugh2]

Again, I am not saying Drohan will jump Perales, only that it might happen, and nowhere did I say Perales will drop out of the top 10 or even drop. He could stay the same or even rise due to the attrition caused by casas graduating, but Drohan could still pass him. We could see:

 

1. Mayer

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Rafaela

4. Yorke

5. Mata

6. Drohan

7. Perales

8. Romero

9. Walter

 

Based on their latest take on him, I highly doubt that happens. They’d need to see a prolonged period of not just bad stats but his “stuff” being down. Perales is ranked purely on his stuff, and it looks like they really like his stuff

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/04/notes-from-field-luis-perales-and-elmer.html?m=1

[moonslav59]

Based on their latest take on him, I highly doubt that happens. They’d need to see a prolonged period of not just bad stats but his “stuff” being down. Perales is ranked purely on his stuff, and it looks like they really like his stuff

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/04/notes-from-field-luis-perales-and-elmer.html?m=1

 

Agreed, and again, I'm not saying I think it will happen.

 

They also like Drohan's stuff, and he is showing it with results. If he keeps doing so, he will rise. The question is by how much.

[mvp 78]

Again, I am not saying Drohan will jump Perales, only that it might happen, and nowhere did I say Perales will drop out of the top 10 or even drop. He could stay the same or even rise due to the attrition caused by casas graduating, but Drohan could still pass him. We could see:

 

1. Mayer

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Rafaela

4. Yorke

5. Mata

6. Drohan

7. Perales

8. Romero

9. Walter

 

Why would they bump Perales over Romero? If a player is out due to injury, they tend to not mark the player down. Has Perales done something to make him jump up? Not according to you.

 

Drohan's start is comparable to Walter's in 2022. They weren't strapping a rocket to his rankings because of 4 games. If he goes up, it'll be a spot or two, but not 6.

[Hugh2]

Why would they bump Perales over Romero? If a player is out due to injury, they tend to not mark the player down. Has Perales done something to make him jump up? Not according to you.

 

Drohan's start is comparable to Walter's in 2022. They weren't strapping a rocket to his rankings because of 4 games. If he goes up, it'll be a spot or two, but not 6.

 

Problem is guys get off to slow starts, sometimes non prospects get off to hot starts.

 

If Perales is a guy who has all the talent in the world but is struggling with consistency and command (because what 20-year-old doesn't) and they bump him down only to bump him back up a month later when he regains his stuff then rankings lose their legitimacy. It becomes all about the stats, anybody can rank any system just by looking at numbers. Rankings take into account so much more than stats, and Soxprospects tries to honor that as well as anyone else.

 

Walter is a great example of that, as was Yorke, they barely nudged him and it's looking to pay dividends this year.

[Hugh2]

I will say this. I think we could both be right here. I’m 99% certain he won’t jump past Perales in the next rankings, and probably not June either.

 

But proximity to the majors matters, if Drohan ceiling changes, and he’s projected as a solid #3 type or more then maybe he could leap frog Perales. But knowing Soxprospects they’re going to want to see a much larger sample of work and the uptick in stuff…and I just don’t see that happening in a couple months.

 

They did say about him “ Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future”

 

I think it’s plausible, my only criticism is I just don’t think they will be quick to do so. And it won’t be because Perales is struggling, it will be because Drohan takes another step forward and continues to show it for a few months

[moonslav59]

Why would they bump Perales over Romero? If a player is out due to injury, they tend to not mark the player down. Has Perales done something to make him jump up? Not according to you.

 

Drohan's start is comparable to Walter's in 2022. They weren't strapping a rocket to his rankings because of 4 games. If he goes up, it'll be a spot or two, but not 6.

 

My supposition was, "if this continues."

 

Of course, if Drohan comes back down to earth, and Perales gains better control, it won't happen.

 

Once again, I AM NOT saying I think it will happen.

 

The Perales over Romero was a misclick.

[moonslav59]

I will say this. I think we could both be right here. I’m 99% certain he won’t jump past Perales in the next rankings, and probably not June either.

 

But proximity to the majors matters, if Drohan ceiling changes, and he’s projected as a solid #3 type or more then maybe he could leap frog Perales. But knowing Soxprospects they’re going to want to see a much larger sample of work and the uptick in stuff…and I just don’t see that happening in a couple months.

 

They did say about him “ Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future”

 

I think it’s plausible, my only criticism is I just don’t think they will be quick to do so. And it won’t be because Perales is struggling, it will be because Drohan takes another step forward and continues to show it for a few months

 

By next "ranking," I meant mid-summer. I thought I said that. I'm looking at their 3 per year rankings, only.

 

I agree, no way Drohan passes Perales in the early May tweak.

[moonslav59]

Some recent additions to the farm...

 

.842 Alfaro (MiLFA)

.810 Rosier (Groome)

.803 Abreu (Vazquez)

.692 Ferguson 12 SBs/.370 OBP

.645 E Valdez .916 in MLB

0.00 Bernardino (Waivers) 0.00 MLB

0.87 Denlinger (German)

2.95 S Sharpe (MiLFA)

 

Not so recent (nondraft/IFA):

.851 Hamilton (14 SB) (Renfroe)

.648 Binelas (Renfroe)

.570 Koss (Aybar)

3.21 de la Rosa (Beni)

 

[mvp 78]

After a miserable 669 OPS last season, Nick Yorke is hitting 936 in his first go around in AA. Is Yorke back to being A GUY?

[Bellhorn04]

After a miserable 669 OPS last season, Nick Yorke is hitting 936 in his first go around in AA. Is Yorke back to being A GUY?

 

May it be so.

[Old Red]

Drohan with a 6 inn 1 hit night for the Sea Dogs tonight.

[moonslav59]

Not sure Mata is starting to come around, despite just 1 ER: 4IP, 2H, 1ER, 6BB, 1K

 

Joely pitched a scoreless 5th to get the win.

Hamilton hit his 6th HR

Dalbec 2-3 w 2B

 

2nd Game: Dermody 6 IP, 5H, 2ER, 0BB, 5K for the tough loss.

Woo had 3 hits in the 2-1 loss.

 

As Red pointed out, Drohan had another great night. His ERA is now 0.62.

Guerrero got his 5th save (1.80 ERA.)

Rosier homered.

Yorke 1-4

Kavadas 1-2 w 2BB

 

GRE lost, again.

1-5 Mayer

1-3 Ferguson w 2BB

 

Salem was one hit in a 7-0 loss.

 

[mvp 78]

When you look at the Gamefeed for the WOO games, Abreu keeps putting up big exit velos. Hamilton's bomb was 105 and 426'.

[moonslav59]

When you look at the Gamefeed for the WOO games, Abreu keeps putting up big exit velos. Hamilton's bomb was 105 and 426'.

 

Who knows if either will work out for us. It's looking like Binelas (the other part of the renfroe/JBJ-Hamilton trade) will never get out of the minors, but Valdez (the other part of the Vaz/Valdez trade) is looking sharp out of the gate.

 

I'm just going to put it another way: Hamilton and Abreu look better than last year.

[Hugh2]

TO MOONSLAV

 

You were right I was wrong

you are smart I am stupid

You are awesome I am boring

... ...

 

etc etc.

 

https://soxprospects.com/

[mvp 78]

TO MOONSLAV

 

You were right I was wrong

you are smart I am stupid

You are awesome I am boring

... ...

 

etc etc.

 

https://soxprospects.com/

 

Holy s***. Those crazy bastards.

[mvp 78]

By next "ranking," I meant mid-summer. I thought I said that. I'm looking at their 3 per year rankings, only.

 

I agree, no way Drohan passes Perales in the early May tweak.

 

Tho... ^

[mvp 78]

Also, it'll be interesting to hear if that's an Anthony bump up to 9 or a Walter/Paulino slide down.

[mvp 78]

I'd move Murphy out of Top 20 and put Meidroth at 20.

[mvp 78]

@SamDykstraMiLB

Set your Minor League calendars accordingly.

 

The Arizona Complex, Dominican Summer and Florida Complex Leagues are scheduled to begin one month from today on June 5

[moonslav59]

soxprospects updated their rankings with no Casas or Kelly, as they graduated.

 

YES! Drohan passed Perales, as well as many others. I caught grief for suggesting it might happen by their summer update.

 

1. Mayer

2. Blies

3. Rafaela

4. Yorke (jumped Mata)

5. Drohan (jumped Mata, Romero, Perales, Anthony, Walter and Paulino)

6. Mata

7. Romero (jumped Perales)

8. Perales

9. Anthony (jumped Paulino & Walter)

10. Walter

11. Paulino

12. Lugo

13. Valdez (jumped Wikelman)

14. Wikelman

15. Hickey (jumped 3)

16. E R-C

17. Jordan Jumped Murphy)

18. Murphy

19. Hamilton (jumped 6)

20. Abreu (up 3)

21. Coffey (up 1)

22. Meidroth (up 7)

 

Biggest drops:

Kavadas 20>27

Koss 28>34

Bonaci 22>25

 

[moonslav59]

Woo won 14-2 to get to .500 (15-15.)

4-5 Palka w 2 HRs & 5 rbi

3-6 Alfaro w 2B

3-4 Sogard w BB

2-4 Hamilton w 2 BB

1-3 Goodrum w 3 BB

1-2 ABreu w 2 BB

1-4 Fitzy w HR & BB

 

POR split and is 18-7

Game 1 Liu threw a no-hitter (7 IP CG) 2BB & 6K

After being demoted on soxprospects.com, Kavadas went 2-4 w 2B & HR (rare no BBs)

Rafaela 2-4 w 3 RBI

Yorke 0-2 w 2 BB

Game 2: lost 2-1

Rosier 2-2 w BB

 

GRE won 10-9 (They are 10-14)

3-5 Jordan w BB

3-6 Paulino w HR

3-4 Lopez w BB

2-6 Mayer w 2B

1-5 Hickey w HR & SF

 

SAL lost 5-2 (They are 11-13.)

2-3 Coffey w BB

0-3 Bleis w SF and rbi

de la Rosa 4 IP 3H, 1ER, 4BB, 4K

 

 

[Larry Cook]

I have been watching yorke’s at bats and this kid can hit!!!! I think he is close to getting hot like two years ago! He just needs to avoid getting hurt! If he does avoid getting hurt, he is in the top 100 again by the end of the year

[moonslav59]

Walter still looks far from ML ready. Woo did get the win in game 1, despite Walter going:

5 IP

8 Hits

4 ER

2 BB

6 K

 

Abreu 2-4 w HR and 3 rbi

RHern 2-4 w HR and 4 rbi

Hamilton 1-2 w 2 BB and his 20th SB

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Does Salem lead minor league baseball in walks allows???

[moonslav59]

Woo won the 2nd game 12-1 and are now 17-15.

Abreu staying hot with 3-4 and a 2B

Alfaro 3-4 w HR and 5 rbi

Bobby Dee 2-4 w HR and 2B

Fitzy with a bomb.

Hamilton 1-3 w BB

 

POR moved up to 19-7 with a 10-7 win.

3-3 Kavadas w HR and 3 BBs

3-6 Yorke

3-5 Sikes w 2B

2-3 Lugo w 3B

1-4 Rosier w BB

 

GRE won big

Gambrel 6IP, 7H, 0ER, 0BB, 8K

3-6 Mayer w HR & 2B and 5 rbi

3-4 Hickey w HR

1-2 Ferguson w 3 BB & 3 SB (15th)

2-5 Meidroth w 2B

 

Salem lost

0-4 Bleis (1 rbi)

2-5 Ravelo

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Murphy pitched well in the Woo 4-2 loss.

4 IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 3K

3-4 Allen w 2B & 17th SB

2-4 Goodrum

2-4 Sogard w 2B

 

POR lost 5-4

Sharp finally had a bad day (5.1, 7, 4, 4, 0)

3-4 Sikes w 2B & HBP

2-4 Yorke w BB

 

GRE won 7-3

4-4 Mayer w HR and two 2Bs

2-3 Bonaci w BB

2-3 Miller w HR & BB

 

SAL lost 5-3

2-5 Ravelo

2-3 Mejicano w 2B

2-4 James

0-4 Bleis w 3Ks

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Mayer's OPS is now up to 996 after his recent HR splurge (3 in last 5 games). Had a 763 OPS at the end of April. Has a 1516 OPS over the last 6 games.