2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

Speaking of Wacha, he was brutal his final two starts of the year. Wonder what that was about.

 

Well, if you look at his Statcast page and all the cool blue dots, you'd just say it was just normal regression.

 

You could also notice that the 127 innings he pitched is the highest he's thrown since 2017.

 

OR you could say it's due to the infamous CERA monster as Wong caught his last 3 games after Plawecki was let go.

[moonslav59]

Those were the true Wacha. The previous 21 starts were the outlier.

 

The real reason was probably simple fatigue from a long season. Happens to tons of pitchers…

 

I don't believe the 13.50 ERA in Wacha's last 2 starts is the real Wacha more than I believe he's a 2.70 ERA pitcher, but I'm pretty certain he is neither.

 

I trust he can come closer to 3.50 in 2023 than Nate.

 

I can see offering them both a QO, but if they both take it, how are we improving on 2022? They'd take up close to 2/3 of the winter spending budget with SS, RF and the pen still needing serious attention, not to mention DH.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And I'm a sucker for bringing Eovaldi back. Seems pretty unlikely though.

 

If Bloom passes on QO's for both Wacha and Eovaldi, he better have a darn good reason.

 

Bloom will not pass up getting two draft picks so will offer each QOs. He knows neither will accept, because someone else will offer multi-years -- good but not elite starters are just affordable to more teams.

 

And as much as the owners might love the job Bloom is doing, I envision a new mandate: Chaim, you're not allowed to ever count on aging pitchers coming back from any major surgeries again. Sign and/or trade only for healthy arms.

[Bellhorn04]

The shuffling sand piggy-backing needs to stop with Houck and Whitlock.

 

FWIW a recent article in the Globe about Whitlock made it sound like he is definitely gearing up to be in the rotation on Opening Day 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom will not pass up getting two draft picks so will offer each QOs. He knows neither will accept, because someone else will offer multi-years -- good but not elite starters are just affordable to more teams.

 

And as much as the owners might love the job Bloom is doing, I envision a new mandate: Chaim, you're not allowed to ever count on aging pitchers coming back from any major surgeries again. Sign and/or trade only for healthy arms.

 

Bloom: But John, we have to pay a mighty steep premium for those healthy arms.

[mvp 78]

I won’t say Atlanta plays in a weak division.

I would also say this format favors teams from weak divisions, as they had 76 games against weak opponents to bulk their record. Cleveland and St. Louis just didn’t capitalize on that opportunity…

 

Not when the Phillies and Mets also made the playoffs this year.

[mvp 78]

I don't believe the 13.50 ERA in Wacha's last 2 starts is the real Wacha more than I believe he's a 2.70 ERA pitcher, but I'm pretty certain he is neither.

 

I trust he can come closer to 3.50 in 2023 than Nate.

 

I can see offering them both a QO, but if they both take it, how are we improving on 2022? They'd take up close to 2/3 of the winter spending budget with SS, RF and the pen still needing serious attention, not to mention DH.

 

They aren't going to spend any money on DH. We don't really know for certain what the winter budget is, so it's hard to say that's 2/3's of it. If it's only for one year and they'll go over anyway, may as well take the one year contracts. I don't see them giving either a QO. They aren't worth it IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bloom: But John, we have to pay a mighty steep premium for those healthy arms.

 

Henry: But you already have us over the tax threshold... there's no turning back now, Billy (oh, wait -- Beane did turn back 20 years ago.. but you're the next best thing). Here, help me untie this knot on my purse-strings.

[moonslav59]

They aren't going to spend any money on DH. We don't really know for certain what the winter budget is, so it's hard to say that's 2/3's of it. If it's only for one year and they'll go over anyway, may as well take the one year contracts. I don't see them giving either a QO. They aren't worth it IMO.

 

The one year aspect of the QO might make them worthy of an offer, especially if the pan is to reset in '24 not '23. It also gives time for Bello, Mata, Walter, Crawford and others to try and earn a 2024 slot.

[mvp 78]

I don't believe the 13.50 ERA in Wacha's last 2 starts is the real Wacha more than I believe he's a 2.70 ERA pitcher, but I'm pretty certain he is neither.

 

You would have believed it if Vaz was catching. The blame would have just been pointed elsewhere.

[mvp 78]

FWIW a recent article in the Globe about Whitlock made it sound like he is definitely gearing up to be in the rotation on Opening Day 2023.

 

Good.

[mvp 78]

The one year aspect of the QO might make them worthy of an offer, especially if the pan is to reset in '24 not '23. It also gives time for Bello, Mata, Walter, Crawford and others to try and earn a 2024 slot.

 

Wacha's largest contract ever was $7M AAV. I don't think this year deserved an $11M raise.

 

Eovaldi is probably a 12.5AAV guy IMO.

[mvp 78]

Henry: But you already have us over the tax threshold... there's no turning back now, Billy (oh, wait -- Beane did turn back 20 years ago.. but you're the next best thing). Here, help me untie this knot on my purse-strings.

 

If Billy Beane accepts the job, how is the trajectory of the Red Sox changed?

 

Does he listen to Pedro and sign David Ortiz? Does he sign Bill Mueller? Keith Foulke? Kevin Pillar?

 

It has been tumultuous, but I can't say I'd do a do-over with that one.

[moonslav59]

Wacha's largest contract ever was $7M AAV. I don't think this year deserved an $11M raise.

 

Eovaldi is probably a 12.5AAV guy IMO.

 

I'm not sure what Wach's previous highest contract has to do with a QO offer.

 

I agree, it's an overpay, but it's just one year.

 

I'm not for offering Nate a QO, but if the idea is to reset in '24, I would understand the offer.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure what Wach's previous highest contract has to do with a QO offer.

 

I agree, it's an overpay, but it's just one year.

 

I'm not for offering Nate a QO, but if the idea is to reset in '24, I would understand the offer.

 

It means his market value is so much lower than 18M that it's silly to give him the QO. You could get Hill + Wacha for 18M combined instead of giving Wacha the 18M QO.

[moonslav59]

It means his market value is so much lower than 18M that it's silly to give him the QO. You could get Hill + Wacha for 18M combined instead of giving Wacha the 18M QO.

 

I said I'm against offering Nate a QO, many times.

 

I'm not sure why you persist.

 

He may get a $33M/3 offer, so $18M/1 is not absurd. I would not like it, but it is understandable- barely.

[mvp 78]

I said I'm against offering Nate a QO, many times.

 

I'm not sure why you persist.

 

He may get a $33M/3 offer, so $18M/1 is not absurd. I would not like it, but it is understandable- barely.

 

I was answering your first question that stated: "I'm not sure what Wach's previous highest contract has to do with a QO offer."

[moonslav59]

I was answering your first question that stated: "I'm not sure what Wach's previous highest contract has to do with a QO offer."

 

I thought you meant Wacha + Hill vs Nate.

 

I doubt Wacha takes $12M/1 + Hill $6M/1, so I'm not sure the comp is realistic.

[mvp 78]

I thought you meant Wacha + Hill vs Nate.

 

I doubt Wacha takes $12M/1 + Hill $6M/1, so I'm not sure the comp is realistic.

 

Rich Hill was just paid 1/5. Wacha was just paid 1/7. Why would you think they'd get much larger AAV contracts than what they got last year?

 

Hill

2021 1.7 fWAR

2022 1.8 fWAR

 

Wacha

 

2021 1.1 fWAR

2022 1.5 fWAR

 

Kluber got 8M last year after 1.4 fWAR in half a season. Most guys that got 10-12+ were coming off years above 2 fWAR (Wood, Matz, Cobb). The only outlier is Kikuchi which might have been the worst contract signed last offseason.

 

My estimation seems fairly reasonable.

[moonslav59]

Rich Hill was just paid 1/5. Wacha was just paid 1/7. Why would you think they'd get much larger AAV contracts than what they got last year?

 

Hill

2021 1.7 fWAR

2022 1.8 fWAR

 

Wacha

 

2021 1.1 fWAR

2022 1.5 fWAR

 

Kluber got 8M last year after 1.4 fWAR in half a season. Most guys that got 10-12+ were coming off years above 2 fWAR (Wood, Matz, Cobb). The only outlier is Kikuchi which might have been the worst contract signed last offseason.

 

My estimation seems fairly reasonable.

 

Why not tell me why Wacha won't get $12-13M/1 and Hill $5-6M/1?

 

I think Wacha may be offered $28/2 or $36M/3. I've seen higher offers for less than what Wacha did in 2022.

 

Hill pitched better than $5M/1.

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Why not tell me why Wacha won't get $12-13M/1 and Hill $5-6M/1?

 

I think Wacha may be offered $28/2 or $36M/3. I've seen higher offers for less than what Wacha did in 2022.

 

Hill pitched better than $5M/1.

 

 

I'm not going to quibble on Wacha getting an extra year, but I think it would reduce the contract to 2/20 most likely. Even your 28/2 offer is a much better value than just giving him the QO. I just don't think the QO makes sense.

 

Hill pitches better than $5M, but he's the oldest player in MLB. That's going to reduce his contract as his body is going to give out at some point and it's going to be quick.

[notin]

They aren't going to spend any money on DH. We don't really know for certain what the winter budget is, so it's hard to say that's 2/3's of it. If it's only for one year and they'll go over anyway, may as well take the one year contracts. I don't see them giving either a QO. They aren't worth it IMO.

 

Based on what?

 

I mean, besides the geriatric options?

Edited October 7, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

I'm not going to quibble on Wacha getting an extra year, but I think it would reduce the contract to 2/20 most likely. Even your 28/2 offer is a much better value than just giving him the QO. I just don't think the QO makes sense.

 

Hill pitches better than $5M, but he's the oldest player in MLB. That's going to reduce his contract as his body is going to give out at some point and it's going to be quick.

 

Wacha may think $18M/1 is better than $28M/2, if he can have a good 2023 season, he'd set himself up for a longer term and better deal.

 

I admit, $28M/2 would probably get Wacha to turn down a QO, assuming he's certain he'd get it.

 

With inflation and the recency effect, I think Hill will get $6M/1 in 2023.

[mvp 78]

Based on what?

 

I mean, besides the geriatric options?

 

If they bring in a guy, it'll be a corner OF that gets time at DH, not a DH that gets some time at corner OF. I'd rather they rotate DH among platoon bench bats and spend the money elsewhere.

 

DESIGNATED HITTERS

 

J.D. Martinez (35 years old, 3.5 WAR)

Michael Brantley (36, 3.5)

Trey Mancini (31, 2.1) -- Mutual option

Matt Carpenter (37, 2.0)

Andrew McCutchen (36, 1.8)

Nelson Cruz (41, 1.4)

Daniel Vogelbach (30, 0.8) -- Club option

Charlie Blackmon (36, 0.6) -- Player option

Jake Lamb (32, -0.1)

Jed Lowrie (39, -0.3)

Alex Dickerson (33, -0.3)

Justin Upton (35, -0.4)

[mvp 78]

Wacha may think $18M/1 is better than $28M/2, if he can have a good 2023 season, he'd set himself up for a longer term and better deal.

 

I admit, $28M/2 would probably get Wacha to turn down a QO, assuming he's certain he'd get it.

 

With inflation and the recency effect, I think Hill will get $6M/1 in 2023.

 

Wacha has never been paid more than 7M, which is what he got this year. Again, he was a 1.1 fWAR guy in 2021 and a 1.5 fWAR guy in 2022. I don't see where this huge pay increase is coming from. I'm not sure he did anything this year that is going to get GM's to start a bidding war on him. At I tried to back my argument up with last year's free agent signings. You're just looking into your magic 8 ball and foretelling what Wacha is thinking right now, something none of us could possibly know.

[moonslav59]

If they bring in a guy, it'll be a corner OF that gets time at DH, not a DH that gets some time at corner OF. I'd rather they rotate DH among platoon bench bats and spend the money elsewhere.

 

DESIGNATED HITTERS

 

J.D. Martinez (35 years old, 3.5 WAR)

Michael Brantley (36, 3.5)

Trey Mancini (31, 2.1) -- Mutual option

Matt Carpenter (37, 2.0)

Andrew McCutchen (36, 1.8)

Nelson Cruz (41, 1.4)

Daniel Vogelbach (30, 0.8) -- Club option

Charlie Blackmon (36, 0.6) -- Player option

Jake Lamb (32, -0.1)

Jed Lowrie (39, -0.3)

Alex Dickerson (33, -0.3)

Justin Upton (35, -0.4)

 

Mancini might draw some Sox interest. He can be a back-up/insurance 1B and corner OF, as well as a DH. We could then trade Dalbec or Hosmer, but I'm not sure the idea of Refsnyder as our near FT RF'er will be the plan. (Mancini bats RH'd like Ref, so not a great fit for a RF platoon.

 

If we sign Nimmo, we will likely go with a DH rotation that could include a mix of players (some won't be on the 26 man): Ref, Arroyo, Dalbec, Hosmer, EValdez, Wong and the very unlikely $12M man, Pham.

[mvp 78]

Mancini might draw some Sox interest. He can be a back-up/insurance 1B and corner OF, as well as a DH. We could then trade Dalbec or Hosmer, but I'm not sure the idea of Refsnyder as our near FT RF'er will be the plan. (Mancini bats RH'd like Ref, so not a great fit for a RF platoon.

 

If we sign Nimmo, we will likely go with a DH rotation that could include a mix of players (some won't be on the 26 man): Ref, Arroyo, Dalbec, Hosmer, EValdez, Wong and the very unlikely $12M man, Pham.

 

Mancini is fine, but that 710 OPS from 2022 should come at a big discount.

[moonslav59]

Wacha has never been paid more than 7M, which is what he got this year. Again, he was a 1.1 fWAR guy in 2021 and a 1.5 fWAR guy in 2022. I don't see where this huge pay increase is coming from. I'm not sure he did anything this year that is going to get GM's to start a bidding war on him. At I tried to back my argument up with last year's free agent signings. You're just looking into your magic 8 ball and foretelling what Wacha is thinking right now, something none of us could possibly know.

 

What did Matz do to get $44M/4?

 

Alex Wood and Alex Cobb had some previous success, but $25M/2 and $20M/2?

 

DeSclafini got 3 years and $36M for having a 2021 season with 40 more IP than Wacha got, this year and nearly the same ERA+.

 

Tell me how Kikuchi got $36M/3without ever having an ERA+ above 93.

 

Wacha will be paid more than what you think. Maybe less than my projections, but a QO for one year is not a bad risk.

[moonslav59]

Mancini is fine, but that 710 OPS from 2022 should come at a big discount.

 

No doubt. I'm not for spending big on the DH and bench. If he hit lefty and played better RF, I'd see it differently.

[notin]

If they bring in a guy, it'll be a corner OF that gets time at DH, not a DH that gets some time at corner OF. I'd rather they rotate DH among platoon bench bats and spend the money elsewhere.

 

DESIGNATED HITTERS

 

J.D. Martinez (35 years old, 3.5 WAR)

Michael Brantley (36, 3.5)

Trey Mancini (31, 2.1) -- Mutual option

Matt Carpenter (37, 2.0)

Andrew McCutchen (36, 1.8)

Nelson Cruz (41, 1.4)

Daniel Vogelbach (30, 0.8) -- Club option

Charlie Blackmon (36, 0.6) -- Player option

Jake Lamb (32, -0.1)

Jed Lowrie (39, -0.3)

Alex Dickerson (33, -0.3)

Justin Upton (35, -0.4)

 

It’s not so much about what we prefer BBS what they will actually do. The Sox have largely treated the DH as its own position and not as a place to rest a regular, which is a strategy I prefer. Why not just get a hitter?

 

Now I am hoping Soxprospects.com is wrong that Eric Hosmer is earmarked for the role. He just isn’t the level of hitter I like to see in a role that requires nothing but hitting.

 

On the free agent market, the guy who appeals to me the most is Brantley. But I have my doubts on even him as he goes through his late 30s.

 

I do like the idea of trading for Garrett Cooper, assuming he can be had…