How much would you offer Eovaldi?

[Bellhorn04]

How much to keep Nate around?

[JDavis76]

That really depends IMO.

 

If the sox continue on their current path and become sellers at the deadline and go into a rebuild, I don't really think they need to offer him anything as he would be 33 by the time next season starts.

[moonslav59]

So, 2 people would offer nothing? Why? To not dishonor him with a lowball offer?

[JDavis76]

So, 2 people would offer nothing? Why? To not dishonor him with a lowball offer?

 

I selected zero because I think he will be too expensive for a pitcher who will be 33yrs old by Opening Day next year for a rebuilding team.

[notin]

So, 2 people would offer nothing? Why? To not dishonor him with a lowball offer?

 

 

I didn’t answer, but I didn’t want to give him the current contact because of his frequent health issues. Another four years is asking for trouble. Especially since Sale is going to be paid $55mill over the next two seasons and is very likely to have multiple stretches of time off to recover…

[notin]

That really depends IMO.

 

If the sox continue on their current path and become sellers at the deadline and go into a rebuild, I don't really think they need to offer him anything as he would be 33 by the time next season starts.

 

Selling at the deadline doesn’t mean lengthy rebuild. The 2020 Red Sox were deadline sellers and the 2021 team was 2 games away from the World Series…

[JDavis76]

Selling at the deadline doesn’t mean lengthy rebuild. The 2020 Red Sox were deadline sellers and the 2021 team was 2 games away from the World Series…

 

Understood, I just think this sell off losing xbo and jd will be a bit more painful and combined with sale and paxton unable to stay healthy, it will require a more lengthy rebuild.

[moonslav59]

Understood, I just think this sell off losing xbo and jd will be a bit more painful and combined with sale and paxton unable to stay healthy, it will require a more lengthy rebuild.

 

Why "lengthy," unless we go back to trying to reset the tax?

 

Are you assuming Bloom will swing and miss on half or more of his FA signings, this winter?

 

$22M JD

$20M Bogey

$17M Eovaldi

$16M Price

$7M Kike

$7M Vax

$7M Wacha

$5M Hill

$3M Strahm

$2M Plawecki

$2M Robles

$2M Sawamura (option)

 

That's about $110M for about 6-7 major slots to fill:

SP

SP

RP

C

2B

DH

OF

 

If the farm can fill 1 or 2 of these slots, or roles like back-up catcher, 6th starter, 6th man in the 8 man pen and utility roles, we might get by needing to sign just 4-5 major free agents. $110M can get you very good talent.

 

In the past, Bloom has been given $35-40M to spend on 8-11 slots, and this past winter, he spent:

$23M Story

$10M Paxton (more about 2023>)

$7M Wacha

$5M Hill

$4M Diekman

$3M Strahm

$2M Robles

 

That's about $55M for 7-8 slots.

 

(THe JBJ trade added salary, as did taking Vaz's option)

 

I know we can't assume what Henry will agree to pay, this coming winter, but if he keeps the budget near what it is now, there is no reason to think we can't "rebuild" a formidable team by 2023.

 

Here is the remaining framework to work with and back filling 8 slots:

 

SP1 _______

SP2 Whitlock

SP3 Sale

SP4 Paxton

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Bello, Seabold, Winckowski, Groome, Mata, Walter, Murphy

 

CL _______

RP2 Houck

RP3 ______

RP4 Taylor

RP5 _______

RP6 Diekman

RP7 Schreiber

RP8 Barnes, Sawamura, Brasier, Davis, Valdez, Danish, German, Crawford, Feltman

 

C ________, Wong/RHernandez/Cottam

1B Casas, Dalbec (TReed, Binelas

2B _____, Downs, Hamilton (Yorke)

3B Devers

SS Story (Arauz, Lugo)

LF Verdugo (Granberg, JDavis)

CF ______, Duran (Rafaela, Jimenez)

RF JBJ (McDonough)

DH ______ (Granberg, Koss

 

 

[JDavis76]

Why "lengthy," unless we go back to trying to reset the tax?

 

Are you assuming Bloom will swing and miss on half or more of his FA signings, this winter?

 

$22M JD

$20M Bogey

$17M Eovaldi

$16M Price

$7M Kike

$7M Vax

$7M Wacha

$5M Hill

$3M Strahm

$2M Plawecki

$2M Robles

$2M Sawamura (option)

 

That's about $110M for about 6-7 major slots to fill:

SP

SP

RP

C

2B

DH

OF

 

If the farm can fill 1 or 2 of these slots, or roles like back-up catcher, 6th starter, 6th man in the 8 man pen and utility roles, we might get by needing to sign just 4-5 major free agents. $110M can get you very good talent.

 

In the past, Bloom has been given $35-40M to spend on 8-11 slots, and this past winter, he spent:

$23M Story

$10M Paxton (more about 2023>)

$7M Wacha

$5M Hill

$4M Diekman

$3M Strahm

$2M Robles

 

That's about $55M for 7-8 slots.

 

(THe JBJ trade added salary, as did taking Vaz's option)

 

I know we can't assume what Henry will agree to pay, this coming winter, but if he keeps the budget near what it is now, there is no reason to think we can't "rebuild" a formidable team by 2023.

 

Here is the remaining framework to work with and back filling 8 slots:

 

SP1 _______

SP2 Whitlock

SP3 Sale

SP4 Paxton

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Bello, Seabold, Winckowski, Groome, Mata, Walter, Murphy

 

CL _______

RP2 Houck

RP3 ______

RP4 Taylor

RP5 _______

RP6 Diekman

RP7 Schreiber

RP8 Barnes, Sawamura, Brasier, Davis, Valdez, Danish, German, Crawford, Feltman

 

C ________, Wong/RHernandez/Cottam

1B Casas, Dalbec (TReed, Binelas

2B _____, Downs, Hamilton (Yorke)

3B Devers

SS Story (Arauz, Lugo)

LF Verdugo (Granberg, JDavis)

CF ______, Duran (Rafaela, Jimenez)

RF JBJ (McDonough)

DH ______ (Granberg, Koss

 

 

 

Mostly because I don't expect him to hit on every signing.

 

And again, I have very little faith in sale or paxton being able to stay healthy, so I think the pitching staff has bigger holes to fill.

[moonslav59]

Selling at the deadline doesn’t mean lengthy rebuild. The 2020 Red Sox were deadline sellers and the 2021 team was 2 games away from the World Series…

 

And, what did we spend that winter (2020-2021?)

 

We stayed under the tax line and spent only

 

$10M Richards

$7M Kike x 2

$5M Perez

$3M Renfroe

$3M Marwin

$2M Andriese

$1.5M Sawamura x 2

+ adding Ottavino's contract with Frank German

 

That's just over $30M in free agent money and about $40M counting Ottavino and 8 slots, total.

 

If we spend $110M on 7-8 slots, next winter, we should be able to keep pace with Bogey, JD, Eovaldi and a few other key role players. And, that's not counting on much from the farm.

[mvp 78]

No more than 3. I'd offer an in year extension and if he doesn't take it now, I'd deal him.

[moonslav59]

No more than 3. I'd offer an in year extension and if he doesn't take it now, I'd deal him.

 

I picked, three as well.

 

Offering him a deal, now, makes sense with his injury history, he might take a little less.

 

Would you offer $75M/3 or more?

[mvp 78]

I picked, three as well.

 

Offering him a deal, now, makes sense with his injury history, he might take a little less.

 

Would you offer $75M/3 or more?

 

Probably 22.5 max.

[jacksonianmarch]

I offer him in a trade for multiple high level prospects. Nate is not a part of your future. The fact that hes been healthy since 2019 is a minor miracle. He is not a part of your future

[moonslav59]

I offer him in a trade for multiple high level prospects. Nate is not a part of your future. The fact that hes been healthy since 2019 is a minor miracle. He is not a part of your future

 

I can see passing on Nate, at his age and with his history, but a 3 year deal is not a killer.

 

He was such a big part of the 2018 ring, and his clubhouse presence is worth something.

[moonslav59]

Probably 22.5 max.

 

Sound about right. Likely not enough to win the bidding.

[Bellhorn04]

I offer him in a trade for multiple high level prospects. Nate is not a part of your future. The fact that hes been healthy since 2019 is a minor miracle.

 

Why's that? Does Tommy John surgery have that bad of a track record?

 

Are there no pitchers who have had long careers after it?

[Bellhorn04]

I can see passing on Nate, at his age and with his history, but a 3 year deal is not a killer.

 

He was such a big part of the 2018 ring, and his clubhouse presence is worth something.

 

He's become a bulldog type, who gives you at least 5 or 6 innings every time out.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why's that? Does Tommy John surgery have that bad of a track record?

 

Are there no pitchers who have had long careers after it?

 

He has had issues with back and hammy issues. He is 32, meaning you are looking at signing him for 33-38 most likely. You are not in window, meaning you may burn his best 1-2 years of the next contract on bad teams

[Old Red]

He's become a bulldog type, who gives you at least 5 or 6 innings every time out.

 

He’s won only 60+ games in his career with a high of 14, and even though I like Evol he’s not worth a big extension. Bogey has 2 WS rings, and he’s the leader in the clubhouse, and the field, so his presence is worth more than Evol, and deserves to be paid first.

[JDavis76]

He’s won only 60+ games in his career with a high of 14, and even though I like Evol he’s not worth a big extension. Bogey has 2 WS rings, and he’s the leader in the clubhouse, and the field, so his presence is worth more than Evol, and deserves to be paid first.

 

bogey will get paid, but chances are it will be by someone other than the sox......

[notin]

Why's that? Does Tommy John surgery have that bad of a track record?

 

Are there no pitchers who have had long careers after it?

 

It really does. Most pitchers throw about 600 IP before a second TJ. Very very few have taken Eovaldi’s career and peaked after the second one.

 

There are absolutely exceptions, notably Adam Wainwright. But while his career was certainly long, he has not been as dominant. And roughly 3 years and just over those 600 IP after missing a season for TJ, he had his scheduled “missed season” where he threw just 28 IP…

[Bellhorn04]

He has had issues with back and hammy issues.

 

Nothing serious. The only serious time he has missed since 2018 is to clean up those damn "loose bodies".

[mvp 78]

Sound about right. Likely not enough to win the bidding.

 

I don't get into bidding. I offer him an extension now. If he doesn't take it, I deal him.

[Bellhorn04]

He’s won only 60+ games in his career with a high of 14, and even though I like Evol he’s not worth a big extension. Bogey has 2 WS rings, and he’s the leader in the clubhouse, and the field, so his presence is worth more than Evol, and deserves to be paid first.

 

Have to be realistic though. There's no way they're paying Bogey, Devers and Story $20-30 million each.

[mvp 78]

Have to be realistic though. There's no way they're paying Bogey, Devers and Story $20-30 million each.

 

They should never have signed Story. It was the beginning of the end.

[Bellhorn04]

They should never have signed Story. It was the beginning of the end.

 

I think it's pretty clear they'd already decided Bogey was gone.

[mvp 78]

I think it's pretty clear they'd already decided Bogey was gone.

 

It's Friday, don't do this to me on a Friday.

[Old Red]

They should never have signed Story. It was the beginning of the end.

 

It’s early in the season, but it sure looks like it at the moment. I said Story would help this year, but he’ll never fill Bogey’s shoes.

[Old Red]

Have to be realistic though. There's no way they're paying Bogey, Devers and Story $20-30 million each.

 

I agree, but Story could always be traded.