2022 Prospects

[Larry Cook]

T Miller with his 9th tater of the season. Go war eagle!

[Larry Cook]

Rafeala makes the baseball America’s top 100 list! Amazing year by the kid!

[mvp 78]

Rafeala makes the baseball America’s top 100 list! Amazing year by the kid!

 

Interesting that he's top 100, but SoxProspects has him ranked 8th. They are slightly down on him due to his hit tool and question if he's going to be able to make contact long term. If he's just JBJ, that's still a good prospect, IMO.

[mvp 78]

From yesterday:

 

@SoxProspects

Miguel Bleis went 3-for-5 with a double (6), two home runs (3), and three RBI (14) in today's 8-1 FCL Red Sox victory. The 18-year-old centerfielder is slashing .280/.326/.512 over 89 PA this season.

 

You can take or leave FCL stats, but it's nice to see Bleis show some of the pop that people have talked about. He may get a call up to Salem before the year is up.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Triston Casas, who hasn't played since May 17 due to a high right ankle sprain, will start a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League today.

[moonslav59]

@alexspeier

Triston Casas, who hasn't played since May 17 due to a high right ankle sprain, will start a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League today.

 

Great news. He might get enough PAs to give us an idea about how much we might count on him for 2023 and beyond.

 

(I think we find a 1 year 1Bman over the winter.)

[moonslav59]

From yesterday:

 

@SoxProspects

Miguel Bleis went 3-for-5 with a double (6), two home runs (3), and three RBI (14) in today's 8-1 FCL Red Sox victory. The 18-year-old centerfielder is slashing .280/.326/.512 over 89 PA this season.

 

You can take or leave FCL stats, but it's nice to see Bleis show some of the pop that people have talked about. He may get a call up to Salem before the year is up.

 

They jumped Rafaela from 19 to 8, but Bleis only from 8 to 7.

 

Would you put these two ahead of Yorke, Walter & Mata?

[mvp 78]

They jumped Rafaela from 19 to 8, but Bleis only from 8 to 7.

 

Would you put these two ahead of Yorke, Walter & Mata?

 

Yorke has struggled so far, but still has a high ceiling.

 

Mata/Walter have MLB caliber arms. Both may be back end rotation guys. Maybe Mata finds more success in the pen? IDK.

 

I think SoxProspects is fine where they have them for now. I think once the book gets around on Rafaela, maybe teams start pitching him a little differently. We'll see. His power numbers have come out of nowhere. Fangraphs has his power listed as a 30 and he's mashing this season. I'd be much more sold on him if he started walking at a higher clip.

 

All things being equal, if Bleis and Rafaela continue on this trajectory, I'd assume that next year the ranking would start off as:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bello

4. Rafaela

5. Yorke

6. Bleis

7. Walter

8. Mata

9. Murphy

10. Paulino

 

I'm assuming Winckowski graduates this season.

[moonslav59]

Yorke has struggled so far, but still has a high ceiling.

 

Mata/Walter have MLB caliber arms. Both may be back end rotation guys. Maybe Mata finds more success in the pen? IDK.

 

I think SoxProspects is fine where they have them for now. I think once the book gets around on Rafaela, maybe teams start pitching him a little differently. We'll see. His power numbers have come out of nowhere. Fangraphs has his power listed as a 30 and he's mashing this season. I'd be much more sold on him if he started walking at a higher clip.

 

All things being equal, if Bleis and Rafaela continue on this trajectory, I'd assume that next year the ranking would start off as:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bello

4. Rafaela

5. Yorke

6. Bleis

7. Walter

8. Mata

9. Murphy

10. Paulino

 

I'm assuming Winckowski graduates this season.

 

Looks right, to me. You have a good view on prospects.

 

I have three questions for you:

 

1) Who has the best chance to crack the top 10 by the end of the season?

Lugo? Gonzalez? Jordan? Someone else?

 

2) Do you think these ranking's jumps were too much or too little?

Hickey 30>19

Kavadas 46>29

 

3) We had a big debate over Seabold over the winter, and you convinced me I was over-rating him. Now the question: has your view changed on him after his apparent success in AAA, this season?

 

Thanks in advance for your responses.

 

[mvp 78]

Looks right, to me. You have a good view on prospects.

 

I have three questions for you:

 

1) Who has the best chance to crack the top 10 by the end of the season?

Lugo? Gonzalez? Jordan? Someone else?

 

2) Do you think these ranking's jumps were too much or too little?

Hickey 30>19

Kavadas 46>29

 

3) We had a big debate over Seabold over the winter, and you convinced me I was over-rating him. Now the question: has your view changed on him after his apparent success in AAA, this season?

 

Thanks in advance for your responses.

 

 

1. If I had to rank: Blaze>Lugo>Gonzalez. Pitchers can move up quick, but Wikelman hasn't done much this year and is trending the other direction. Blaze has cooled off in July though.

2. If Hickey can stick at Catcher, it's a fair ranking because his bat is legit. If he develops an average glove, he's an MLB starter. Kavadas was ranked too low to begin with. Koss is ranked 30th and Kavadas is a better prospect than Koss. Seems fine.

3. I still don't see too much in Seabold. He's continued to have injury issues and his secondary pitches aren't what they used to play and now he's back on the IL. The gulf between AAA and MLB is enormous. In 3 starts in BOS, he's given up 15 ER. If another team asked about him, I would deal him.

[moonslav59]

1. If I had to rank: Blaze>Lugo>Gonzalez. Pitchers can move up quick, but Wikelman hasn't done much this year and is trending the other direction. Blaze has cooled off in July though.

2. If Hickey can stick at Catcher, it's a fair ranking because his bat is legit. If he develops an average glove, he's an MLB starter. Kavadas was ranked too low to begin with. Koss is ranked 30th and Kavadas is a better prospect than Koss. Seems fine.

3. I still don't see too much in Seabold. He's continued to have injury issues and his secondary pitches aren't what they used to play and now he's back on the IL. The gulf between AAA and MLB is enormous. In 3 starts in BOS, he's given up 15 ER. If another team asked about him, I would deal him.

 

Fair enough.

 

I expected Kavadas to be near 21-24, so I guess 29 is not that far off.

 

I'd put Hickey near 15-17, so that's not far off, either.

 

I get the gulf between AAA and MLB is huge, but the numbers Seabold put up in AAA were pretty awesome.

 

.539 OPS Against (better than Wink, Bello & Crawford)

 

WHIP

0.90 Walter (POR/WOR)

0.96 Wink

0.99 Seabold

1.03 Murphy (POR/WOR)

1.04 Bello (POR/WOR)

 

K:BB (This area describes his weaker area)

87:10 Van Belle

75:7 Walter

66:16 Santos

43:8 Winckowski

51:14 Seabold

76:22 Uberstine

114:33 Bello

101:31 Drohan

102:35 Murphy

 

 

[mvp 78]

Fair enough.

 

I expected Kavadas to be near 21-24, so I guess 29 is not that far off.

 

I'd put Hickey near 15-17, so that's not far off, either.

 

I get the gulf between AAA and MLB is huge, but the numbers Seabold put up in AAA were pretty awesome.

 

.539 OPS Against (better than Wink, Bello & Crawford)

 

WHIP

0.90 Walter (POR/WOR)

0.96 Wink

0.99 Seabold

1.03 Murphy (POR/WOR)

1.04 Bello (POR/WOR)

 

K:BB (This area describes his weaker area)

87:10 Van Belle

75:7 Walter

66:16 Santos

43:8 Winckowski

51:14 Seabold

76:22 Uberstine

114:33 Bello

101:31 Drohan

102:35 Murphy

 

 

 

I think it's hard to really pinpoint these guys down to an exact slot. I think there's a general range where a guy fits in. Hickey feels adequately placed when surrounded by Binelas, Wong (who is making the case for being the BOS backup in 2023) and Ward. Kavadas seems to fit in with Drohan, German and Bonaci. With Hickey, I think there are still questions about his glove and if he can stick at Catcher. With Kavadas, he seems to really be a DH only profile which is why he's 29th rather than knocking on the top 20 door.

 

Because Seabold has good control, he can dominate AAA. The problem is, his stuff isn't good enough for the next level. Until I see it work there, I'm not sure I can believe in it. Think of Denyi Reyes in 2017-2018. He breezed through the low minors because of his control with ERAs in the 1's and low 2's. https://www.milb.com/player/denyi-reyes-660593 He eventually hit the wall where his stuff couldn't play up anymore. He has been getting smacked around in AAA this year in BAL, but has made some brief appearances for their MLB team (even starting in Fenway on 5/28).

[moonslav59]

I think it's hard to really pinpoint these guys down to an exact slot. I think there's a general range where a guy fits in. Hickey feels adequately placed when surrounded by Binelas, Wong (who is making the case for being the BOS backup in 2023) and Ward. Kavadas seems to fit in with Drohan, German and Bonaci. With Hickey, I think there are still questions about his glove and if he can stick at Catcher. With Kavadas, he seems to really be a DH only profile which is why he's 29th rather than knocking on the top 20 door.

 

Because Seabold has good control, he can dominate AAA. The problem is, his stuff isn't good enough for the next level. Until I see it work there, I'm not sure I can believe in it. Think of Denyi Reyes in 2017-2018. He breezed through the low minors because of his control with ERAs in the 1's and low 2's. https://www.milb.com/player/denyi-reyes-660593 He eventually hit the wall where his stuff couldn't play up anymore. He has been getting smacked around in AAA this year in BAL, but has made some brief appearances for their MLB team (even starting in Fenway on 5/28).

 

Good points. soxprospects says he has 3 will show three "at least-average offerings." With a "strong pitchability and advanced command and control profile allow his arsenal to play up. At his best, can generate whiffs with three pitches..." I had hoped this meant he could be a decent 4/5 starter in the bigs. You were right about him losing velo since the injury.

 

I guess I'll go back to having little hope with Seabold.

[Larry Cook]

I think Jordan, who is only 19, has had a better than expected year overall.

 

The 8 taters seem low, but it is at Salem.

 

However, he is hitting near .300, has 40 plus RBI’s and over 30 walks.

 

He is figuring it out, but has a chance to be the next on the top 100 list.

[Larry Cook]

At Worcester, Murphy is throwing a great game. 7 innings and no runs surrendered.

[Larry Cook]

At Greenville, Northcut with his 24th tater of the season.

 

And Kavadas has another walk.

[Larry Cook]

Mayer with his 8th tater of the season. Game was suspended in the 4th.

[moonslav59]

Murphy went 7

2 H

0 ER

3 K

(3.00 ERA, now)

 

DHern with a scoreless 8th (1H, 1BB, 1K)

 

Jimenez got himself over .700 with a 3-4 night, including a 3B.

[mvp 78]

Is Chris Murphy the most under the radar top 10 prospect in recent memory? Starting pitching profile (now that he can get RHB out) that produces low SLG and an xERA below 2 at AA/AAA.

[moonslav59]

Is Chris Murphy the most under the radar top 10 prospect in recent memory? Starting pitching profile (now that he can get RHB out) that produces low SLG and an xERA below 2 at AA/AAA.

 

Maybe because we have 3-4 other starters that had higher media coverage, he got left out.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe because we have 3-4 other starters that had higher media coverage, he got left out.

 

Plus he has a super-bland name LOL

[moonslav59]

Plus he has a super-bland name LOL

 

How can anyone compete with Winckowski?

[Bellhorn04]

How can anyone compete with Winckowski?

 

Winckowski is definitely a successful-sounding name.

[mvp 78]

Maybe because we have 3-4 other starters that had higher media coverage, he got left out.

 

It's like the bizzaro Red Sox system right now.

[mvp 78]

Plus he has a super-bland name LOL

 

He is the 4th Chris Murphy listed on Baseball Reference. None of the others had an MLB appearance.

 

I read through his twitter timeline and I can confirm that he gets the MVP seal of approval for being a cool dude.

[moonslav59]

He is the 4th Chris Murphy listed on Baseball Reference. None of the others had an MLB appearance.

 

I read through his twitter timeline and I can confirm that he gets the MVP seal of approval for being a cool dude.

 

Don't we want pitchers to be mean SOBs and not "cool dudes?"

[Bellhorn04]

Don't we want pitchers to be mean SOBs and not "cool dudes?"

 

I think you can be both, like Dirty Harry.

[mvp 78]

I think you can be both, like Dirty Harry.

 

Pedro Martinez.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Michael Gettys started his conversion from outfielder to relief pitcher last season. After a scoreless inning in today's 9-4 Greenville Drive win, he has a 3.34 ERA over 29.2 IP with 23 strikeouts to seven walks. He hasn't given up an earned run since June 12 (10.2 IP).

[Larry Cook]

In Greenville, Kavadas with his 6th Greenville tater of the season and 20th tater overall this season. Plus he got 2 more walks today, that gives him 14 Greenville walks versus 14 Greenville strikeouts. Man is he a beast.

 

Northcut with his 25th tater of the season.

 

Sikes with his 2nd Greenville tater of the season.

 

Olds with 9 strikeouts in 4 innings.