2022 Prospects

[mvp 78]

German was literally called up because the Sox think he could be in their plans next year. I thought that was obvious.

 

Soxprospects have him projected as the WooSox closer so he could be first arm up. But I suspect he’s still going to need to prove himself in spring training.

 

German is in their plans for getting some run next year, but I don't think he's ready to be a late inning arm. Right now, he's a 6th inning guy. Until he develops better offspeed stuff, he's limited at the MLB level.

[mvp 78]

The unrealistic expectations a bound around here.

 

The amazing thing is, that despite only rebuilding the farm for 3 years, we've seen more Bloom prospects than DD/Ben prospects, this year- thanks to trades many poo-poo'd.

 

The Whitlock steal still looks like the best prospect the Sox have had since Devers.

 

Yet, they persist.

 

I think you're overselling Whitlock and underselling guys like Casas and Mayer.

[moonslav59]

I think you're overselling Whitlock and underselling guys like Casas and Mayer.

 

I'm talking best prospect that hs shown something in the bigs, so far.

 

I do think Mayer has a good chance at being the best since Devers.

 

I also like Bello, Mata and Casas with rafaela not far behind. Bleis has a lot of upside, too.

 

This farm has a lot to be optimistic about. (It's deeper than jacko wants to admit, too.)

[Hugh2]

Agreed, but until we start adding RP'ers, I give him the inside edge on winning an opening day slot in the pen.

 

We are losing Strahm and may cut Brasier loose.

 

Here is what we have, on paper, for 2023:

 

May end up starting:

Houck

Whitlock

Crawford

Winckowski/Seabold

 

Certainly in Pen:

Schreiber

Barnes

Taylor, if healthy

 

Likely:

Kelly

German

 

Maybe:

Danish

Brasier

Bazardo

Ort

 

Not likely:

DHern

Politi

 

Converted SP'ers?

Mata

Walter

TWard

Murphy

Santos

Drohan

 

 

I think you can permanently move Houck into the pen here, and that's a good thing. I think he can be elite there.

[Hugh2]

German is in their plans for getting some run next year, but I don't think he's ready to be a late inning arm. Right now, he's a 6th inning guy. Until he develops better-offspeed stuff, he's limited at the MLB level.

 

I don't think he's a late-inning arm, I think he can be a good middle reliever. I think the Sox know that as well. Still, there's a ton of value when you can get that guy at the league minimum instead of paying the free agent market of relievers, which when you factor in you practically have to sign 2 to get 1 good one a guy like German you're saving yourself 5-10 million a year.

[moonslav59]

I don't think he's a late-inning arm.

 

Not yet.

[mvp 78]

I think you can permanently move Houck into the pen here, and that's a good thing. I think he can be elite there.

 

Maybe? I think they need to just give him one role and leave him there for a season.

[mvp 78]

I don't think he's a late-inning arm, I think he can be a good middle reliever. I think the Sox know that as well. Still, there's a ton of value when you can get that guy at the league minimum instead of paying the free agent market of relievers, which when you factor in you practically have to sign 2 to get 1 good one a guy like German you're saving yourself 5-10 million a year.

 

Yes. If the Sox can start churning out young relievers from their farm, it saves a lot of the offseason fretting about which expensive has been they are bringing over.

[mvp 78]

Not yet.

 

Not ever unless he gets a secondary pitch.

[Hugh2]

Not yet.

 

You never really know what guys will do, but he's projected as a middle reliever. A late-inning arm is his ceiling, most guys do not reach their ceilings.

[moonslav59]

You never really know what guys will do, but he's projected as a middle reliever. A late-inning arm is his ceiling, most guys do not reach their ceilings.

 

He was lights out in AA and AAA without a great secondary pitch.

 

I know that often means squat, but maybe not in his case.

 

He still has time to develop one, too.

 

FYI, I have him pencilled in as our 7th or 8th RP'er in 2022, and feel he could easily be beat out in ST'ing, but I'm optimistic about him.

[jacksonianmarch]

German is in their plans for getting some run next year, but I don't think he's ready to be a late inning arm. Right now, he's a 6th inning guy. Until he develops better offspeed stuff, he's limited at the MLB level.

 

Opportunity will present itself to him. It will be up to him whether he takes it or not

[Hugh2]

He was lights out in AA and AAA without a great secondary pitch.

 

I know that often means squat, but maybe not in his case.

 

He still has time to develop one, too.

 

FYI, I have him pencilled in as our 7th or 8th RP'er in 2022, and feel he could easily be beat out in ST'ing, but I'm optimistic about him.

 

Yes that's a very generous projection of an unproven rookie reliever. How often does that pan out? Most guys don't reach their ceiling, so I'm not going to project him to do just that and neither should the Red Sox. If he turns out to be a shutdown reliever then guess what? your pen is awesome but you can't pencil him in the 8th inning role right now, heck I wouldn't pencil him into the 7th inning role right now. If he finds himself in a higher leverage role, it will be after the season started, other guys have failed, and he has more of a track record.

[moonslav59]

Yes that's a very generous projection of an unproven rookie reliever. How often does that pan out? Most guys don't reach their ceiling, so I'm not going to project him to do just that and neither should the Red Sox. If he turns out to be a shutdown reliever then guess what? your pen is awesome but you can't pencil him in the 8th inning role right now, heck I wouldn't pencil him into the 7th inning role right now. If he finds himself in a higher leverage role, it will be after the season started, other guys have failed, and he has more of a track record.

 

I have him slotted as the 7th or 8th RP'er "who could easily be beat out," and that is being "very generous?"

 

Or course, a lot depends on how many pen arms we sign, too.

[Hugh2]

I have him slotted as the 7th or 8th RP'er "who could easily be beat out," and that is being "very generous?"

 

Or course, a lot depends on how many pen arms we sign, too.

 

Well if your bullpen is slotting into the 7th 8th inning and uproven rookie who looks shaky at times (no matter how high his potential is) you have a horrible bullpen. Which the Sox do so I suppose this all makes sense.

 

But the Sox aren't going to plan on German being that guy. They're going to make a move to strengthen the bullpen this offseason. Maybe give some clarity to Houk/Whitlocks roles moving forward, Houck is definitely moving there full time, Whitlock I'm not so certain yet.

[mvp 78]

Well if your bullpen is slotting into the 7th 8th inning and uproven rookie who looks shaky at times (no matter how high his potential is) you have a horrible bullpen. Which the Sox do so I suppose this all makes sense.

 

But the Sox aren't going to plan on German being that guy. They're going to make a move to strengthen the bullpen this offseason. Maybe give some clarity to Houk/Whitlocks roles moving forward, Houck is definitely moving there full time, Whitlock I'm not so certain yet.

 

I think he means the 7th or 8th guy in the pen, not the 7th or 8th inning guy. Basically, German would be one of the last options available.

[moonslav59]

I think he means the 7th or 8th guy in the pen, not the 7th or 8th inning guy. Basically, German would be one of the last options available.

 

Yes, I meant 7th or 8th out of 8 pen arms- not to be used in the 7th and 8th, unless it's low leverage- to begin with, anyway.

[moonslav59]

But the Sox aren't going to plan on German being that guy. They're going to make a move to strengthen the bullpen this offseason. Maybe give some clarity to Houk/Whitlocks roles moving forward, Houck is definitely moving there full time, Whitlock I'm not so certain yet.

 

Even if we add 2 pen arms AND keep Whitlock and Houck in the pen, I still think German may win the last spot in the 8 man pen:

 

1. Whitlock

1A. Houck

3. Addition

4. Addition

5. Schreiber

6. Barnes (could lose spot in ST'ing)

7. Crawford (not a lock)

8. One from Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish, Bazardo or Brasier.

 

This assumes no injuries by opening day.

Edited September 27, 2022 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

Thank you for the clarification, ok yes, I think you're correct. I thought you were saying he might be the set up guy.

[moonslav59]

Thank you for the clarification, ok yes, I think you're correct. I thought you were saying he might be the set up guy.

 

I should be more careful or specific in my use of terminology. My bad.

 

German may end up as a 7th or 8th inning RP'er, but he needs to earn that.

[moonslav59]

Sox Farm Awards:

 

O Player of the Year

Kavadas

 

D Player of the Year

Rafaela

 

SP'er of the Year

Bello

 

RP'er of the Year

German

 

Baserunner of the Year

Hamilton

 

Latin Program

Andy Lugo

 

Latin Pitcher

Eybersson Polanco

 

Lou Gorman Award ("who has demonstrated dedication and perseverance in overcoming obstacles while working his way to the Major League team.")

Zack Kelly

 

Baseball America Red Sox Minor League POY:

Rafaela

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

One more game and the Sox minor league season ends.

 

We had some disappointments, but I think, overall, there was more good than bad.

[moonslav59]

The last Woo Sox game was cancelled. Here some interesting final minor league numbers:

 

Niko Kavadas (515 PAs A-A+ AA)

.280 26 86

.443/.547/.990 (58 XBHs and 102 BBs: 5th in minors)

 

Enmanuel Valdez (573 PAs AA-AAA):

.296 28 107

.376/.542/.918 (65 XBHs)

 

Wilyer Abreu (579 PAs AA)

.247 19 73

.399/.435 OBP/.834 (114 BB 2nd in minors/ 31 SB w just 3 CS)

 

Ceddanne Rafaela (522 PAs A+ AA)

.299 21 86

.342/.538/.880 (63 XBH/ 28 SB x 7 CS)

 

Marcelo Mayer (350 PAs A-A+)

.280 13 53

.399/.489/.888 (45 XBH/ 17 SB w 0 CS in about a half season)

 

Tristan Casas (334 PAs AAA)

.281 12 41

.389/.500/.889 (36 XBHs in about a half season)

 

Nathan Hickey (328 PAs A-A+)

.258 16 64

.413/.498/.911 (36 XBHs in less than a half season/ 72 BB -88 Ks)

 

Miguel Bleis (167 PAs in FCL)

.301 5 27 (pro-rated is about 20 HRs and 105 RBI)

.353/.542/.895

 

Max Ferguson (527 PAs A-A+)

.214 7 60

.366/.339/.705 (96 BB: 9th in minors/ 61 SB w just 5 CS- T9th in minors SBs)

 

Matthew Lugo (524 PAs in A+ AA)

.282 18 79

.338/.492/.830 (54 XBH w 20 SB and 7 CS)

 

David Hamilton .740 OPS (70 SB w 8 CS- T3 in the minors)

Eddinson Paulino .827 OPS (58 XBHs and 27 SB w 5 CS)

Brainer Bonaci .782 OPS (89 BB- 89K and 28 SB w 6 CS)

Blaze Jordan .808 OPS (45 XBHs in 463 ABs)

Johan Mieses .923 OPS (12 HRs and 27 XBHs in just 192 ABs)

Chase Meidroth .977 OPS (.438 OBP)

Mikey Romero .874 OPS (79 ABs)

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Here is my prediction for soxprospects.com's final rankings for 2022:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bello

4. Bleis (5)

5. Rafaela (6)

6. Yorke (4)

7. Mata

8. Romero (9)

9. Walter (8)

10. Paulino

11. Wong (13)

12. TWard (17)

13. Perales (19)

14. Jordan (16)

15. Wikelman

16. EValdez (14)

17. Lugo (18)

18. Anthony (11)

19. Hickey (20)

20. Kavadas (22)

21. Bonaci (24)

22. Abreu (26)

23. German (27)

24. Drohan (29)

25. Murphy (12)

26. Rodriguez-Cruz (28)

27. Coffey (21)

28. ZKelly (31)

29. Uberstine (37)

30. Brannon

 

Out of top 30: Downs & Seabold

 

 

[mvp 78]

I think they are higher on Perales and lower on Jordan.

[Hugh2]

I should be more careful or specific in my use of terminology. My bad.

 

German may end up as a 7th or 8th inning RP'er, but he needs to earn that.

 

No, you said it fine. I did a s*** job of comprehending your point. That's about right on point.

[moonslav59]

Top Woo Batters (200+ ABs) (333+)

.288 Wong

.283 Duran

.273 Casas

.269 Castellenos

.261 RHern

.259 Sogard

 

OBP

.382 Casas

.377 Sanchez

.364 Stewart

.356 Sogard

.349 Duran

.349 Wong

 

SLG

.491 Duran

.489 Wong

.481 Casas

.451 RHern

.450 Stewart

 

OPS

(.923 Mieses in 192 ABs)

.863 Casas

.840 Duran

.838 Wong

.814 Stewart

.790 Sanchez

.749 RHern

 

Portland (125 ABs+) (280+)

BA

.304 Granberg

.279 Castellenos

.278 Rafaela

.271 Cottam

.263 Dearden

.260 Koss

.251 Hamilton

 

OBP

.427 Granberg

.399 Abreu

.371 Scott

.367 Dearden

.362 Sogard

 

SLG

.500 Rafaela

.467 Granberg

 

OPS

.893 Granberg

.824 Rafaela

.774 Abreu

.774 Scott

 

Greenville

BA .330 Rafaela, .308 Kavadas, .301 Jordan, .288 Lugo

OBP .472 Kavadas, .397 Hickey, .387 Jordan, .378 Mayer

SLG .594 Rafaela, .592 Kavadas, .539 Hickey, .530 Northcut, .500 LKugo

OPS 1.064 Kavadas, .936 Hickey, .851 Binelas, .844 Lugo, .828 Jordan & Mayer

[moonslav59]

I think they are higher on Perales and lower on Jordan.

 

I moved Perelas up, a lot.

 

Jordan finished the season strongly.

[mvp 78]

I moved Perelas up, a lot.

 

Jordan finished the season strongly.

 

I just have a suspicion that they like Perales a lot (high ceiling) and don't really care as much for Blaze.

[moonslav59]

I think they are higher on Perales and lower on Jordan.

 

So, pereles 11th or 12th and Jordan 18th?