Who should close going forward?

[dgalehouse]

And if wins and losses and saves were all we had to talk about, there wouldn't be much reason to even have a Talksox.

 

"We lost 9-6 last night."

"Yeah, I know, that sucks."

"OK, see you tomorrow."

 

You have to admit , it would save a lot of time.

[Bellhorn04]

You have to admit , it would save a lot of time.

 

We're definitely not here to save time.

[moonslav59]

Yes. I think 60/40 is about right.

 

actually, it's 2(.6 x OBP) + 2(.4 x SLG)

 

That would bring Ottavino from .642 to .652. Doesn't seem like enough.

 

2(.6 x .347) + 2 (.4 x .295)

[notin]

Ottavino makes for a great argument that OPS should be weighted more toward OBP.

 

Relievers who walk lots of hitters do see that heavily weighted in their OPSA. Like Robles, before he devices to let the slugging catch up last night…

[Bellhorn04]

Relievers who walk lots of hitters do see that heavily weighted in their OPSA.

 

How is the weighting calculated?

[notin]

How is the weighting calculated?

 

 

The bulk of the OPS tends to be from OBP.

 

Like before last night, Robles had a .554 OPS in recent outings for Boston, but about .350 of it was OBP…

[moonslav59]

The bulk of the OPS tends to be from OBP.

 

Like before last night, Robles had a .554 OPS in recent outings for Boston, but about .350 of it was OBP…

 

Now, it’s .365 OBP and .451 SLG for a total of .816.

 

Oh, the wonders of small sample sizes,

[dgalehouse]

Over the long haul, though, save pct. is a decent stat. I'd say the gold standard is 90%.

 

Just for the heck of it , I looked up some of the best known closers of the past and present. The elite ones seem to be in the high 80's in save percentage. Mariano Rivera , the indisputable GOAT , is at 89% , with a probably unbreakable record of 652 saves . Craig Kimbrel appears to be the only one, past or present, with a 90% save percentage. And it is very doubtful that he will be able to maintain that rate as he pitches into the twilight of his career . So , 90% is indeed the gold standard , and then some.

[Bellhorn04]

Just for the heck of it , I looked up some of the best known closers of the past and present. The elite ones seem to be in the high 80's in save percentage. Mariano Rivera , the indisputable GOAT , is at 89% , with a probably unbreakable record of 652 saves . Craig Kimbrel appears to be the only one, past or present, with a 90% save percentage. And it is very doubtful that he will be able to maintain that rate as he pitches into the twilight of his career . So , 90% is indeed the gold standard , and then some.

 

Let's make it 87.5 then. That's 7 out of 8.

[dgalehouse]

Let's make it 87.5 then. That's 7 out of 8.

 

Sounds good . Difficult , but achievable .

[notin]

Let's make it 87.5 then. That's 7 out of 8.

 

How are you calculating save percentage? Saves/(saves + blown saves)?

[TylerD]

Ottavino was excellent tonight.

[Maxbialystock]

Ottavino was excellent tonight.

 

Agree. But I would have been fine if Richards had gone back out. I like the idea of having more than one closer. An even more radical idea is that I think Barnes could close again this year.

[iortiz]

Shuffle them!

[moonslav59]

I know you guys don't want to hear this, but Barnes is going to close again, this year- mostly likely sooner than later.

[Larry Cook]

I know you guys don't want to hear this, but Barnes is going to close again, this year- mostly likely sooner than later.

 

Hang’em Chaim did create this mess. I am sure he is aware of this and hopefully he learns his lesson and increases the depth of next year’s roster!

[moonslav59]

Hang’em Chaim did create this mess. I am sure he is aware of this and hopefully he learns his lesson and increases the depth of next year’s roster!

 

Other GMs should use this year's Sox example as the lesson on depth building in one short winter.

 

Perez went from our innings leader to 5/6 starter. Eovaldi was second in IP, last year. Here is the rest of the horrific staff Bloom had last winter, listed by most IP, after Perez and Eovaldi:

 

Weber

Valdez

Mazza

Godley

Brewer

Brasier

Barnes

Springs

Brice

Houck

Osich

Covey

Kickham

Stock

Walden

Hart

Pivetta

Hembree

Hall

DHern

Triggs

Taylor

Workman

(under 6 IP)

Leyer

Tapia

 

We used 30 different pitchers in a 60 game season!

 

This year, Eovaldi and Pivetta are the innings leaders, then...

 

ERod

Richards

Perez

Whitlock

Ottavino

Barnes

Sawamura

Taylor

Houck

Andriese

DHern

Valdez

Rios

Workman

Sale

Brice

Davis

Robles

(Under 6 IP)

Weber

Brennan

Bazardo

Brewer

 

With everyday players be basically replaced these top 9 PA guys with...

 

Chavis> Dalbec (Santana/Schwarber)

Pereza> Arroyo (full year) & Kike (Marwin)

Pillar & Beni> Kike & Renfroe (Cordero)

 

That being said, I'd like to see us add a closer and a set-up man as we say good bye to Ottavino. Maybe have Houck pitch from the Pen. (I think Whitlock starts.)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Holding our breath hoping Ottavino's slider will catch the corner is no way to go through 9ths, son.

 

Closer candidates' BB/9 for the year: Whitlock 2.2, Perez 2.9, Barnes 3.1, Richards 3.8, Taylor 4.6, Sawamura 5.3, Ottavino 5.3, Darwinzon 6.9, Robles 7.0. Then there's Houck: 1.8.

 

They're determined to limit Whitlock, so he's out, and the Sox don't want to turn Houck into Calvin Schiraldi, either (though Tanner could be a valuable two-inning guy in a playoff series). Barnes will get other chances, but he knows we know he can never be trusted. The numbers for Perez and Richards came mostly from a different pace as starters. Robles is ticking... ticking...

 

Right now I'm thinking the least worst choice, as far as veteran strike-throwing for one inning may be, gulp... Garrett Richards.

[Bellhorn04]

How are you calculating save percentage? Saves/(saves + blown saves)?

 

Whatever the standard calculation is.

[moonslav59]

Holding our breath hoping Ottavino's slider will catch the corner is no way to go through 9ths, son.

 

Closer candidates' BB/9 for the year: Whitlock 2.2, Perez 2.9, Barnes 3.1, Richards 3.8, Taylor 4.6, Sawamura 5.3, Ottavino 5.3, Darwinzon 6.9, Robles 7.0. Then there's Houck: 1.8.

 

They're determined to limit Whitlock, so he's out, and the Sox don't want to turn Houck into Calvin Schiraldi, either (though Tanner could be a valuable two-inning guy in a playoff series). Barnes will get other chances, but he knows we know he can never be trusted. The numbers for Perez and Richards came mostly from a different pace as starters. Robles is ticking... ticking...

 

Right now I'm thinking the least worst choice, as far as veteran strike-throwing for one inning may be, gulp... Garrett Richards.

 

Barnes will be given a chance to earn back the trust. That's who Cora is.

 

It would be nice to be able to pull Houck from the rotation and give his a shot as closer, but that's a huge gamble, and who starts? Seabold? Perez? Move Richards back after he has earned back some trust?

 

If we try, or I should say when we try Barnes back at closer, depending on how well or poorly he does, this board is going to have a lot to say. That's one fact we can take to the bank.

[Bellhorn04]

Cora could use the 'shoot till you miss' rule with closers. You have the job until you blow a save. Then it's next guy up.

[moonslav59]

Cora could use the 'shoot till you miss' rule with closers. You have the job until you blow a save. Then it's next guy up.

 

I kinda thought Taylor did a fine job, that one time, although it was not a save situation. I was thinking he might have been given the nod, last night, over Ottavino.

 

He may still get the next chance, depending on the match-ups.

 

I would not be surprised to see Barnes get a very high leverage chance, soon.

[oldtimer]

Barnes will be given a chance to earn back the trust. That's who Cora is.

 

It would be nice to be able to pull Houck from the rotation and give his a shot as closer, but that's a huge gamble, and who starts? Seabold? Perez? Move Richards back after he has earned back some trust?

 

If we try, or I should say when we try Barnes back at closer, depending on how well or poorly he does, this board is going to have a lot to say. That's one fact we can take to the bank.

 

I want a guy who can consistently throw strikes yet has the stuff to challenge a hitter. Barnes fit that role for a good part of the season. I see no one else on the roster, other than Whitlock who fits that description. Getting Barnes back in form would be best. If that doesn't happen we may have a closure by committee. A different guy each night.

[notin]

Cora could use the 'shoot till you miss' rule with closers. You have the job until you blow a save. Then it's next guy up.

 

So.. the Kevin Cash Method...

[moonslav59]

I want a guy who can consistently throw strikes yet has the stuff to challenge a hitter. Barnes fit that role for a good part of the season. I see no one else on the roster, other than Whitlock who fits that description. Getting Barnes back in form would be best. If that doesn't happen we may have a closure by committee. A different guy each night.

 

I hope we don't have to rotate, because that would mean nobody is doing the job.

 

While I totally agree, too many walks should disqualify a pitcher from being a closer, Kimbrel's was 3.7 when with the Sox, 3.6 in his career and 3.9 since 2016.

 

I hate when Ottavino walks a guy, and what's worse is, it's almost always the first batter or even the first 2, but the guy gets guys out better than just about anyone other than Barnes and Whitlock, who will not be given the closer role, it seems.

 

OBP Against (100+ PAs)

.276 Barnes

.280 Whitlock

.328 Sawamura

.345 Ottavino

.346 Taylor

.360 Perez

.362 Richards

 

You also don't want 2Bs and HRs, so SLG% against is important, too, and here is where Ottavino blows everyone away:

 

.290 Ottavino

.323 Whitlock

.333 Taylor

.347 Barnes

.435 Sawamura

.479 Richards

.488 Perez

 

They guys in the top of both categories are Whitlock, Barnes, Ottavino and Taylor.

 

OPS Against

.603 Whitlock

.615 Barnes

.630 Ottavino

 

.679 Taylor

 

.763 Sawamura

.841 Richards

.848 Perez

 

This just really sucks about Ottavino (BB/9)

 

5.3 Ottavino, Swamura

4.6 Taylor

3.1 Barnes

2.2 Whitlock

1.8 Houck

 

Edited August 28, 2021 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

Matt Barnes is still the best bet to close games. He has shown that he can get the job done. This is not the time to experiment.

[Maxbialystock]

Barnes will be given a chance to earn back the trust. That's who Cora is.

 

It would be nice to be able to pull Houck from the rotation and give his a shot as closer, but that's a huge gamble, and who starts? Seabold? Perez? Move Richards back after he has earned back some trust?

 

If we try, or I should say when we try Barnes back at closer, depending on how well or poorly he does, this board is going to have a lot to say. That's one fact we can take to the bank.

 

My choice would be Ottavino, but I completely agree Barnes will get another shot. If Richards can be rehabbed into a pretty darn good reliever--small sample, just 4 games--Shirley Barnes can. He needs to think about what he is doing and focus on fixing what is fixable. And, exactly as you say, Cora needs to send him back to the mound. I think he should use his changeup more and to throw more pitches low in the zone--or high or above the zone if they will swing.

 

Right now the Sox bullpen needs reliable arms, and Barnes has one, it's just not quite as reliable as the one we saw earlier this season.

Edited August 28, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[dgalehouse]

So.. the Kevin Cash Method...

 

Say what you will about Kevin Cash , but he takes whatever the front office gives him and gets the best out of it. You could make a strong case that he is the best manager in the game at this time.

[Maxbialystock]

Say what you will about Kevin Cash , but he takes whatever the front office gives him and gets the best out of it. You could make a strong case that he is the best manager in the game at this time.

 

Probably. But I prefer Cora, who has actually won a WS. Plus Cash is the guy who pulled Blake Snell in the 6th inning in last year's WS, and he did it in a 1-0 game and despite the fact that Snell was pitching the game of his life.

 

Cash's system--the Ray's system--works, but it's just a tad too mechanical for me. He lacks fingerspitzengefuhl and simply does whatever his computer says is mathematically the right thing. He's the guy Billy Beane in Moneyball would want as his manager.

Edited August 28, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Normally, when you pull a long time starter like Richards from the rotation due to under performance issues, and he does well out of the pen, he gets a chance to start again.

 

I'm not saying I'm for that idea, but giving Houck a chance at closer looks like a nice idea, in isolation.