A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[oldtimer]

I do think signing Schwarber in anticipation of JD moving on after 2022 (even if he stays after 2021) is typical Red Sox move. We extended Eovaldi knowing Porcello was going to be in his last year of contract. Hedging the bet as a gambler would say. It's matter of how much that insurance will cost.

 

I love Schwarber. I saw him play at IU.

 

We will have decisions to make relative to who will DH for the Sox next year. Both JDM and Schwaber are excellent candidates. JDM is having a very good year and may get a 2 or more year offer from another club or the $19 mil we are set to give him may be adequate for him. So, we have a choice to make.

 

1. Offer JDM a 2 year at around his current salary and keep him while letting Schwaber walk

 

2. Don't offer an extension to JDM and try to sign Schwaber to a 4 or 5 year contract. If JDM stays eat the cost and keep both.

 

3. Don't offer an extension to JDM and try to sign Schwaber to a 4 or 5 year contract and if JDM leaves we have one DH/PT left fielder.

 

4. I doubt we do this but the option is still on the table if neither JDM or Schwaber can be signed, find another FA quality DH.

[moonslav59]

We will have decisions to make relative to who will DH for the Sox next year. Both JDM and Schwaber are excellent candidates. JDM is having a very good year and may get a 2 or more year offer from another club or the $19 mil we are set to give him may be adequate for him. So, we have a choice to make.

 

1. Offer JDM a 2 year at around his current salary and keep him while letting Schwaber walk

 

2. Don't offer an extension to JDM and try to sign Schwaber to a 4 or 5 year contract. If JDM stays eat the cost and keep both.

 

3. Don't offer an extension to JDM and try to sign Schwaber to a 4 or 5 year contract and if JDM leaves we have one DH/PT left fielder.

 

4. I doubt we do this but the option is still on the table if neither JDM or Schwaber can be signed, find another FA quality DH.

 

We could also play Schwarber in LF, Kike at 2B (one year left) before deciding on who DHs beyond 2022.

 

Or, we could sign Schwarber to play 1B (or keep him in LF longer term) and try to extend JD at a lower AVV to finish out his career as a Sox DH.

[moonslav59]

We could see this, assuming we keep JD and Schwarber:

 

1B: Dalbec & Schwarber

LF: Schwarber & Verdugo

CF: Kike & Duran

RF: Renfroe & Verdugo

DH: JD & Schwarber

2B: Arroyo & Kike

 

Essentially, that's 8 players playing 6 positions with Arroyo backing up SS and Dalbec backing up 3B.

 

JD, Kike, Schwarber play FT (normal rest days)

Verdugo & Renfroe get a tiny bit more rest than normal- Verdugo vs L/Renfroe v R

Arroyo, Dalbec and Duran basically play 2/3 of the time + any rest anyone else gets- so maybe they all play close to 7 out of 10 games.

 

 

[oldtimer]

We could also play Schwarber in LF, Kike at 2B (one year left) before deciding on who DHs beyond 2022.

.

Or, we could sign Schwarber to play 1B (or keep him in LF longer term) and try to extend JD at a lower AVV to finish out his career as a Sox DH.

 

I haven't commented on the entire team makeup at this point for 2022 other than I would like to see quality players at all field positions and up to 3 utility players that can sub in without substantially weakening the team. That wasn't the case this year. The idea of having one quality DH (fairly highly paid) in my view is to allow us to retain other quality position players while spending primarily on pitching. Neither JDM of Schwaber are either fast or particularly good defensive players. They would be there for both bat and senior leadership qualities.

 

One could argue thee point that the Yankees are carrying a couple of players which are more like DH's and they fit it into their payroll but on the other hand, I don't favor the Yankee approach.

[moonslav59]

I haven't commented on the entire team makeup at this point for 2022 other than I would like to see quality players at all field positions and up to 3 utility players that can sub in without substantially weakening the team. That wasn't the case this year. The idea of having one quality DH (fairly highly paid) in my view is to allow us to retain other quality position players while spending primarily on pitching. Neither JDM of Schwaber are either fast or particularly good defensive players. They would be there for both bat and senior leadership qualities.

 

One could argue thee point that the Yankees are carrying a couple of players which are more like DH's and they fit it into their payroll but on the other hand, I don't favor the Yankee approach.

 

I'm not saying I am certain I want to keep both JD and Schwarber, and your points are very strong, but having Fenway's LF does allow for us to take certain liberties with one weaker defensive OF'er on the roster. It does hurt when we play in NL parks, but that rule may change, this winter.

 

The fact that Kike can play CF and 2B well is a big plus. Arroyo is okay as a back up SS and Dalbec at 3B. Since Verdugo can play CF and RF well, we can get by with Schwarber and JD just fine, at least for one year, as long as we add a utility player better than Marwin.

 

Cordero offers minor league OF depth and maybe 1B.

 

We'd need an IF utility player. Agreed.

[dgalehouse]

I would be very surprised if J.D. opted out. The smart move is to go with the security instead of rolling the dice on what figures to be an iffy free agent market. A bird in the hand, etc.

[Nick]

I would be very surprised if J.D. opted out. The smart move is to go with the security instead of rolling the dice on what figures to be an iffy free agent market. A bird in the hand, etc.

 

A bird in the hand is $19.325M in your pocket, guaranteed for 2022 season. I can't name another DH making that kind of money.

 

I agree with you (sorry misread it the first time)

Edited August 16, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

A bird in the hand is $19.325M in your pocket, guaranteed for 2022 season. Can you name another DH making that kind of money?

 

Even Nelson Cruz makes only $12M.

[Larry Cook]

Several prospects have stepped up big time this season.

 

Because of this hang’em Chaim now has options, options he did not have last offseason.

 

My guess is he churns the bottom 25 percent of the 40 man squad this off season.

 

He has to improve the bullpen. Settle the rotation and build more quality depth. And finally, upgrading the outfield.

[moonslav59]

Several prospects have stepped up big time this season.

 

Because of this hang’em Chaim now has options, options he did not have last offseason.

 

My guess is he churns the bottom 25 percent of the 40 man squad this off season.

 

He has to improve the bullpen. Settle the rotation and build more quality depth. And finally, upgrading the outfield.

 

We lose 6 to free agency (or extend/re-sign):

ERod

Ottavino

Marwin (already DFA'd)

Santana

Robles

T Shaw

 

We likely will not offer the options on these 3:

Richards ($10M)

Perez (6.0M)

Andriese (3.5)

 

Schwarber will likely refuse the mutual option, but JD will likely stay.

 

That's 10 out of 43 (Bazardo, Brasier and Taylor are on the 60 Day IL or C-19 IL)

 

My guess is, these guys go, too:

Potts

Rosario

 

That makes 12.

 

Bubble:

A Davis

Arauz

Brasier

R Hernandez

Y Rios

 

Maybe 13-15 total gone.

 

We add 4-5 free agents and 5-7 Rule 5 guys.

Bello

Jimenez

Winckowski

Crawford

Downs

 

Maybe 1-2 from Santos, Dearden, Feltman, German, Granberg, T Reed, T Ward

[moonslav59]

Losing ERod and Ottavino will hurt, but the overall loses, including Richards, Perez, Andriese, Marwin, Santana & others is close to a net addition by subtraction in production value, alone.

 

When you look at the budget savings and add Pedey's lost cost, we should be able to greatly improve this team by attrition.

 

This one reason why I think we viewed this past trade deadline as a "don't make any moves that greatly impact the future of this team" philosophy.

 

I also think Henry will give the okay to go over the tax line, if it looks like a big gain can be made to put us in high-contention status.

[notin]

A bird in the hand is $19.325M in your pocket, guaranteed for 2022 season. I can't name another DH making that kind of money.

 

I agree with you (sorry misread it the first time)

 

Giancarlo Stanton

[notin]

Even Nelson Cruz makes only $12M.

 

With JD, it might come down to whether or not he think he prioritizes years over money.

 

More money is great, but at his age, years under contract also has to be a consideration. If he thinks he can get 3 or 4 years, then he might opt out. It will be easier to get that deal this year over next year...

[moonslav59]

With JD, it might come down to whether or not he think he prioritizes years over money.

 

More money is great, but at his age, years under contract also has to be a consideration. If he thinks he can get 3 or 4 years, then he might opt out. It will be easier to get that deal this year over next year...

 

If he does end up extending with the Sox, he may start with 2022 and help us reduce his hit on the lux budget by accepting a lower AVV.

 

He might just not opt out and sign an extension beginning in 2023.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Giancarlo Stanton

 

True. He hasn't played over 95 innings in the OF since 2018.

95 in 2019

0 in 2020

46, so far this year

 

JD has played in the OF:

213 in '18

331 in '19

52 in '20

177, so far in '21

[notin]

If he does end up extending with the Sox, he may start with 2022 and help us reduce his hit on the lux budget by accepting a lower AVV.

 

He might just not opt out and sign an extension beginning in 2023.

 

Or not.

 

He might opt out just to force the extension issue. (OK, technically, it would not be an extension at that point.)

 

But yes, just because he opts out doesn't necessarily mean he's gone...

[moonslav59]

He might opt out just to force the extension issue. (OK, technically, it would not be an extension at that point.)

 

But yes, just because he opts out doesn't necessarily mean he's gone...

 

It's hard to put a new price on JD, and my guess is he will want way more than we offer.

 

That may force him to test the FA waters- likely after 2022, when I hope we don't bid against ourselves and sign him to much more than he's worth.

[Bellhorn04]

He might opt out just to force the extension issue. (OK, technically, it would not be an extension at that point.)

 

But yes, just because he opts out doesn't necessarily mean he's gone...

 

Maybe offer a one year extension at 17 million or thereabouts?

[Bellhorn04]

Even Nelson Cruz makes only $12M.

 

This is a very relevant comp. Like JD, Cruz has been posting a .900 OPS with regularity.

 

And according to B-R, the highest salary he's ever made is slightly over $14 mill.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

This is a very relevant comp. Like JD, Cruz has been posting a .900 OPS with regularity.

 

The only difference is that Cruz is much longer in the tooth. There's a higher concern that he falls off the cliff some year.

 

For reference, JD would be Cruz' current age in 2028. Maybe he believes he can be as productive for that long and wants a multiple year deal?

[Bellhorn04]

The only difference is that Cruz is much longer in the tooth. There's a higher concern that he falls off the cliff some year.

 

For reference, JD would be Cruz' current age in 2028. Maybe he believes he can be as productive for that long and wants a multiple year deal?

 

But even in peak years Cruz did not exceed 14.25 mill.

 

The question is how much teams are willing to pay a DH now.

 

Will there be a DH in the NL next year?

[notin]

Maybe offer a one year extension at 17 million or thereabouts?

 

As a free agent? If he opts out of a one year $19.35mill, it won't be to accept a one year $17mill. Maybe a 2 year $34mill. I could see that.

 

I haven't seen anyone mention this, but one reason he might not opt out is that if he does, the Sox might extend a Qualifying Offer (should they still exist), which will make him a less attractive free agent. If that happens, opting out might position him to take the one year offer for less than his current guarantee. Now, if he was a 27yo Bryce Harper hitting the market, no one cares about the QO. But for a 37yo DH? It's very possible some teams do...

[notin]

But even in peak years Cruz did not exceed 14.25 mill.

 

The question is how much teams are willing to pay a DH now.

 

Will there be a DH in the NL next year?

 

Cruz never exceeded the $14.25mill AAV, but he also got a 4 year deal when he was JD's current age. I don't know if JD wants money or years, but Cruz is certainly an example to show that teams will give an aging DH (up to) 4 years...

[mvp 78]

But even in peak years Cruz did not exceed 14.25 mill.

 

The question is how much teams are willing to pay a DH now.

 

Will there be a DH in the NL next year?

 

I understand, but maybe he can point to Cruz and say "I can do that for just as long. That's the template."

 

No idea.

 

No.

[mvp 78]

Cruz never exceeded the $14.25mill AAV, but he also got a 4 year deal when he was JD's current age. I don't know if JD wants money or years, but Cruz is certainly an example to show that teams will give an aging DH (up to) 4 years...

 

Depending on the market, he could get a 4-5 deal most likely.

 

The question is, does the opt out help or hurt the Sox? Can they use that money elsewhere? Pitching perhaps?

[mvp 78]

Giancarlo Stanton

 

I'd rather have JD.

[mvp 78]

As a free agent? If he opts out of a one year $19.35mill, it won't be to accept a one year $17mill. Maybe a 2 year $34mill. I could see that.

 

I haven't seen anyone mention this, but one reason he might not opt out is that if he does, the Sox might extend a Qualifying Offer (should they still exist), which will make him a less attractive free agent. If that happens, opting out might position him to take the one year offer for less than his current guarantee. Now, if he was a 27yo Bryce Harper hitting the market, no one cares about the QO. But for a 37yo DH? It's very possible some teams do...

 

He's not 37 though.

[moonslav59]

If JD makes over $19M in 2022, would an offer to tear up the deal and take $42M/3 be an insult? It is basically saying, we'll add $23M/2 to what you already have, but it is Nelson Cruz money for 3 not 4 years. Would he take $56M/4 ($14M x 4)?

 

That would knock $5M off our 2022 tax budget line.

 

If JD takes the $19M/1, what would he get after 2022, assuming he hits .850 in '22? $36M/3? (That's what we'd have added onto his current deal, if we offer $56M/4 to replace the current deal.

 

JD has to wonder what happens if he hits .790 in 2022 or something close to 2020's line.

[moonslav59]

He's not 37 though.

 

No. He'll be 35 after next season.

[notin]

He's not 37 though.

 

True.

 

But then either way, he has to decide if he prefers money or years. If he stays, it still gets tougher to get a longer deal next year.

 

If you think he is going to stay for the higher single season salary, what will he do the following year? Just retire?

 

The QO could figure in for him for 2022, but he is also t going to avoid it in 2023 unless he is terrible. If he does want more years, opting out after this year is actually his best plan…